UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs. Vera

[gabe]

davis getting close to -700

dang

[Crassus]

30U to win 5U...damn

[Crassus]

With the cancellation I basically have

risking 6.28U
Lyoto Machida
Mauricio Rua
to win 4.05U

10U parlay of
Mauricio Rua
Phil Davis
to win 4.79UU

10U parlay of
Mauricio Rua
Phil Davis
Lyoto Machida
to win 9.72U


EDIT: Good god what have I done...

[gabe]

With the cancellation I basically have

risking 6.28U
Lyoto Machida
Mauricio Rua
to win 4.05U

10U parlay of
Mauricio Rua
Phil Davis
to win 4.79UU

10U parlay of
Mauricio Rua
Phil Davis
Lyoto Machida
to win 9.72U


EDIT: Good god what have I done...

i'm personally staying off rua and machida, but you should win... if i'm up on the night, i'll probably make small plays on the dogs.

[Crassus]

i'm personally staying off rua and machida, but you should win... if i'm up on the night, i'll probably make small plays on the dogs.

Thanks for the vote of confidence but I deserve a nunya math-thrashing for this...

[Imsmarterthanu]

Shogun Split decision

[Imsmarterthanu]

Shogun by decision
Lyoto by KO
Travis Browne by whatever against cole
Joe Lauzon
Cole Miller
Wagner Prado <- underdog

[TheCalculator]

Joe Lauzon

You like Lauzon? I'm leaning on Varner. How do you see it playing out?

[Rubber Guard]

You like Lauzon? I'm leaning on Varner. How do you see it playing out?

I'm not going to sit and say Barboza sucks. But he isn't a good striker when getting pressured. He isn't a counter striker at all. He loves to utilize kicks. Ross Pearson was able to get a close loss by pressuring him at times.

I think Varner's win looked better than it really was. He was the huge dog, coming in on short notice, vs. a guy coming off the best KO of the year. No one really gave him a shot, and not only did he win, he won big.

I don't think we should put that fight on a pedestal and think Varner is some beast all of a sudden. Just a half year earlier he lost to the gay TUF fighter.

Either way it is a tough fight to call.

[gabe]

Shogun by decision
Lyoto by KO
Travis Browne by whatever against cole
Joe Lauzon
Cole Miller
Wagner Prado <- underdog

lol travis browne is not fighting on this card

[gabe]

I'm not going to sit and say Barboza sucks. But he isn't a good striker when getting pressured. He isn't a counter striker at all. He loves to utilize kicks. Ross Pearson was able to get a close loss by pressuring him at times.

I think Varner's win looked better than it really was. He was the huge dog, coming in on short notice, vs. a guy coming off the best KO of the year. No one really gave him a shot, and not only did he win, he won big.

I don't think we should put that fight on a pedestal and think Varner is some beast all of a sudden. Just a half year earlier he lost to the gay TUF fighter.

Either way it is a tough fight to call.

I'm a big Lauzon fan, but I think Dakota Cochrane could Decision him.

[Rubber Guard]

I'm a big Lauzon fan, but I think Dakota Cochrane could Decision him.

Could potentially. But I wouldn't say he would. After beating Varner he lost to 2 no names.

Lauzon could touch his chin or sub him in the first 2 rounds.

[Imsmarterthanu]

lol travis browne is not fighting on this card

oh rly

[The Fobfather]

oh rly

Travis Browne is headlining a card with Bigfoot Silva.

[GunShard]

Wagner Prado is an undefeated fighter 8-0 at +450 underdog. I think there's value here.

[Crassus]

Wagner Prado is an undefeated fighter 8-0 at +450 underdog. I think there's value here.

No bro. No value. Least none that I can see.

[eligibletackle]

I'd need to do some due diligence on Prado before taking a flier on him but Davis seems pricey.

I think Rua is more of a sure than than Davis w/o even knowing who prado is. Shogun's cardio looked great vs Hendo which was always a big question mark to me, can see this going 5, Vera has looked nothing short of trash since the move to 205. Pure trash.

I also like Varner, love Lauzon but he struggles when he cant get the early finish. Varner is tough chinned and not sure if Lauzon could get this to the mat. It could play out like Stout/Lauzon due Joe's knack for blowing his wad looking for the quick finish. Varner can give him fits, should be a close one IMO.

[AdamB]

I'd need to do some due diligence on Prado before taking a flier on him but Davis seems pricey.

I think Rua is more of a sure than than Davis w/o even knowing who prado is. Shogun's cardio looked great vs Hendo which was always a big question mark to me, can see this going 5, Vera has looked nothing short of trash since the move to 205. Pure trash.

I also like Varner, love Lauzon but he struggles when he cant get the early finish. Varner is tough chinned and not sure if Lauzon could get this to the mat. It could play out like Stout/Lauzon due Joe's knack for blowing his wad looking for the quick finish. Varner can give him fits, should be a close one IMO.

I wouldn't say that his cardio looked "great" - for Shogun, perhaps it did. He certainly looked significantly better cardio-wise in the 5 rounder against Machida, but there wasn't as much of a grappling based game plan for that fight so he probably didn't waste as much energy. I'm surprised at how many people see Shogun by decision - Vera just recently got rocked badly by Elliott Marshall. I've got Shogun by TKO/KO, round 1 or 2.

[Oblivian]

I'd need to do some due diligence on Prado before taking a flier on him but Davis seems pricey.

I think Rua is more of a sure than than Davis w/o even knowing who prado is. Shogun's cardio looked great vs Hendo which was always a big question mark to me, can see this going 5, Vera has looked nothing short of trash since the move to 205. Pure trash.

I also like Varner, love Lauzon but he struggles when he cant get the early finish. Varner is tough chinned and not sure if Lauzon could get this to the mat. It could play out like Stout/Lauzon due Joe's knack for blowing his wad looking for the quick finish. Varner can give him fits, should be a close one IMO.

IMO, Shogun's cardio did not look great at all. The only reason it appeared that way is because Hendo was extremely gassed. Shogun got through on heart and definitely wasn't as tired as Hendo, but he was significantly slower and weaker in the 4th and 5th. He did take a lot of damage so it's hard to really gauge, but the main thing that fight showed me was his heart and ability to take punishment. Offensively as well as defensively, I wasn't very impressed.

[eligibletackle]

yeah, I meant vs Hendo, even though both went 5 rounds they were two different styles of fights. I loaded up on Hendo +105(?) just b/c I thought he could wear Shogun out when that simply was not the case.

Another thing to consider is Vera's heralded TDD, it looked great against Couture, who really tested Vera's Greco Roman base. Silva, who I don't consider a take down artist, had great success w/ trips throughout the fight, things that Shogun could conceivably do. I'm also under the belief Shogun had subpar TDD, but his sweeps are phenomenal. Whereas Vera looked just awful on his back vs. Silva.

Final thought it the UFC 149 effect, nat'l televised event, UFC can't lay another egg. I think it's been made clear that exciting fights need to happen and wouldn't be surprised if Vera got the axe b/c he tried to wall n stall a little too much while still getting a L. I think refs will be quicker to break up clinches.

As for Shogun putting Vera away, who knows. I'm not going to take Shogun inside distance when Vera isn't one to get KO'd despite Marshall putting him on queer street. He's pretty defensive and will use reach or go clinch if/when Rua puts the heat on him. I actually don't think fight goes distance +180 is a bad bet.

Should be all Shogun

[eligibletackle]

IMO, Shogun's cardio did not look great at all. The only reason it appeared that way is because Hendo was extremely gassed. Shogun got through on heart and definitely wasn't as tired as Hendo, but he was significantly slower and weaker in the 4th and 5th. He did take a lot of damage so it's hard to really gauge, but the main thing that fight showed me was his heart and ability to take punishment. Offensively as well as defensively, I wasn't very impressed.

I think it was the best we've seen in a long time out of him, Hendo's cardio wasn't bad all things considered t. He went in for the kill throughout the first 3 rounds and never getting it can take it's toll. The fight vs Shields was really a one-off IMO re: his cardio as he's not meant for 185 these days. It was a grueling war for the 1st 15, I thought both were in good shape considering what happened before the 4th and 5th. Furthermore I see this fight playing out a lot more like Machida/Rua I than Hendo/Rua. Vera will probably look to clinch but no way is he going to give Rua the hell that Hendo did.

Outside of freak KO by Vera the only other way I see Vera winning is by Shogun getting complacent and not pushing the pace, maybe akin to Machida I where his corner led him to believe he had it or whatever. If he's pushing the pace Vera is a different fighter. He's still a subpar one if you let him find his groove, but he's a really bad one when the heat is on him.

[Crassus]

Prado's opponents records (including the dude he fought twice just once)

18-26. No UFC experience.

Phil Davis' opponents UFC records (excluding Rashad)
21-12
He also chased 2 decent 205'ers down to 185.

[gabe]

I'm getting cheap tickets to the card. If any of you live in or around L.A. and want to roll with, hit me up.

[Beelzebubzy]

Winner gets title shot confirmed
thank you Dana. Hopefully jones wins

[PunisherIND]

Winner gets title shot confirmed
thank you Dana. Hopefully jones wins

dana must have capped this fight at -2000 because there's no way they can market vera as a legitimate title contender, even if he beats shogun convincingly.

[Beelzebubzy]

Dude if the truth wins they will give him junior as well

[PunisherIND]

shogun ITD -162 @ 5Dimes

[Beelzebubzy]

Put 10 squid on lauzon Varner itd

[gabe]

dropping a serious deuce right now... when colossal pieces were coming out, the sounds i made sounded like: RUAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA


Turns out, I call out Shogun's name while taking dumps... nice.

[PunisherIND]

Put 10 squid on lauzon Varner itd

lol. considering that one as well.

[PunisherIND]

Shogun ITD
Machida/Bader Goes Distance
Lauzon/Varner ITD
Phil Davis

= +398

[gabe]

If Lauzon/Varner ends ITD, it will be with Lauzon winning, so might as well play Lauzon ITD. If Varner wins, I think it will be a decision.

[Imsmarterthanu]

You like Lauzon? I'm leaning on Varner. How do you see it playing out?

I'm looking at this fight like it's 2 guys that could beat each other either way, I'm giving the edge to Lauzon because he has the submission advantage and since he's coming off that sour loss and Varner is coming off a solid win he has a lot more to lose.

[Crassus]

Shogun ITD
Machida/Bader Goes Distance
Lauzon/Varner ITD
Phil Davis

= +398

I like it. I've also have way too much on parlays for this so I can't take it...

[Kaladarus]

If Lauzon/Varner ends ITD, it will be with Lauzon winning, so might as well play Lauzon ITD. If Varner wins, I think it will be a decision.

Almost all of Lauzon's losses have been ITD. While I do think Lauzon has the better chance of finishing, I think Varner finishes quite often when he wins.