UFC on Fox 4: Shogun vs. Vera

[Dillonious Monk]

Phil De Fries should easily win his fight. Also, Omigawa is a good bet at +120. He should be able to keep the fight standing and I believe he has crisper striking than the wild Gamburyan. I also like Varner at + odds, possibly hedged with Lauzon inside distance. Machida by decision is a good bet as someone mentioned, as well as Machida in a parlay imo. I also feel confident with Shogun in parlay. And a 2 fight parlay with Shogun inside distance and something else, maybe non mma related that I am confident in.

[Oblivian]

I definitely disagree with De Fries winning the fight easily. I don't think much of Oli Thompson, but stylistically this could favor him. I played De Fries over Broughton at UFC 138 because Broughton may have the worst takedown defense in all of the UFC. Broughton doesn't even really try to defend. Even so, De Fries had trouble throughout and gave up a round. Thompson is strong enough and athletic enough to be able to fight off De Fries weak takedowns. I'm not convinced De Fries can easily win this fight if he can't get the takedowns easily. His gas tank also looked questionable against Broughton.

[Beelzebubzy]

"The fight is my motivation. To be in there, fighting a guy like Mike Swick, that's where the guy who loves to fight comes out. There is a 50 percent chance I am going to win this fight. There is a 100 percent chance that somebody is going to be taking a nap. And I'm okay with those odds."


Dj caps thi at a pick em fight

[Beelzebubzy]

And he is guaranteeing inside the distance

[Crassus]

shogun traning pics.

Look at the size of those fuckin pads for his kicks.

[AdamB]

I definitely disagree with De Fries winning the fight easily. I don't think much of Oli Thompson, but stylistically this could favor him. I played De Fries over Broughton at UFC 138 because Broughton may have the worst takedown defense in all of the UFC. Broughton doesn't even really try to defend. Even so, De Fries had trouble throughout and gave up a round. Thompson is strong enough and athletic enough to be able to fight off De Fries weak takedowns. I'm not convinced De Fries can easily win this fight if he can't get the takedowns easily. His gas tank also looked questionable against Broughton.

I agree. I actually have some money on Thompson, as I feel there's some value there - both men have sloppy striking but I feel Thompson's is better. For me, the key is how relaxed he is - if de Fries comes out swinging like he did against Miocic, I can see him tiring himself out. Thompson's chin is alright despite having two TKO/KO losses, in the tape I've watched I've seen him take some real heavy shots. Pretty much any heavyweight fighter can knockout any other heavyweight fighter with a clean shot, but Thompson has displayed slightly more proclivity for doing so than de Fries in my book.

Since, as you say, this fight will probably play out on the feet, I am leaning towards Thompson for sure. Saying that, I have no doubt my opinion is being skewed by the odds on offer and I won't be at all surprised if I am wrong.

[Thor4140]

[IMG]<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/q56wLtcBB_A?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>[/IMG]

[PunisherIND]

5d released more props. a few that look good to me

rua/vera starts round 3 +113
machida by tko +240
varner by decision +350

[gabe]

5d released more props. a few that look good to me

rua/vera starts round 3 +113
machida by tko +240
varner by decision +350

all worth a bet. especially varner. he could end it by RNC late in the fight, but i think he'll probably take a decision a la Lauzon vs Stout.

[NunyaBidness]

5d released more props. a few that look good to me

rua/vera starts round 3 +113
machida by tko +240
varner by decision +350

I like the first two, but not the last one. Lauzon only has one round in him, and Varner isn't really a LNP type.

[PunisherIND]

I like the first two, but not the last one. Lauzon only has one round in him, and Varner isn't really a LNP type.

i notice the first two lines have moved. did you max em out?

and i tend to agree with you on the lauzon/varner analysis -- this one is more of a hunch than anything.

[NunyaBidness]

i notice the first two lines have moved. did you max em out?

Heh, yep, dropped a $100 bomb on em.

[PunisherIND]

Heh, yep, dropped a $100 bomb on em.

lol nice.

[Beelzebubzy]

Stout vs lauzon
lauzon made it a decision but one could argue that Varner would swarm vs out point

[PunisherIND]

Stout vs lauzon
lauzon made it a decision but one could argue that Varner would swarm vs out point

yes, and also, i hear sam stout is thinking about changing nickname to hands of sand.

[GunShard]

[NunyaBidness]

5d released more props. a few that look good to me

rua/vera starts round 3 +113
machida by tko +240
varner by decision +350

Johnson by dec at +1140 is probably value too.

[PunisherIND]

Johnson by dec at +1140 is probably value too.

i think you're right. +622 now.

[NunyaBidness]

i think you're right. +622 now.

One more max bet I can hedge it and make a squid.

[PunisherIND]

One more max bet I can hedge it and make a squid.

[Beelzebubzy]

One more max bet I can hedge it and make a squid.

Calamari weekend for Nunya's posse.

Beelze's posse is eating chicken by the sea

[MMAbetMASTA]

So what's the big play here fellas????

Haven't had time to research much lately and barely get online these days.. Need a winner to end my shit streak!!!

Liking Manny, yahya as a dog, nam (hoped he'd be a much bigger dog), and I think bader is worth a sprinkle at those odds.

Also think lauzon / varner is going under 2 1/2 and yaha / grispi - manny / omigawa over 2 1/2...

Some one sell me some confidence in one of these picks!!

[Crassus]

So what's the big play here fellas????

Haven't had time to research much lately and barely get online these days.. Need a winner to end my shit streak!!!

Liking Manny, yahya as a dog, nam (hoped he'd be a much bigger dog), and I think bader is worth a sprinkle at those odds.

Also think lauzon / varner is going under 2 1/2 and yaha / grispi - manny / omigawa over 2 1/2...

Some one sell me some confidence in one of these picks!!

Davis. Large favorite (like Mendes) but this guy has an even worse chance than McKenzie.

[gabe]

So what's the big play here fellas????

Haven't had time to research much lately and barely get online these days.. Need a winner to end my shit streak!!!

Liking Manny, yahya as a dog, nam (hoped he'd be a much bigger dog), and I think bader is worth a sprinkle at those odds.

Also think lauzon / varner is going under 2 1/2 and yaha / grispi - manny / omigawa over 2 1/2...

Some one sell me some confidence in one of these picks!!

Manny

[MMAbetMASTA]

Davis. Large favorite (like Mendes) but this guy has an even worse chance than McKenzie.

I hear you man, I just don't have that kind of money right now if it were to lose... Thanks though, I'm sure he'll come through and make you some paper, GL!!!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Manny

Yea I just read your stuff in your thread about manny, I agree with almost everything. However, I don't know that he will be a much superior striker than omig and I think if that's the case he could have trouble winning a grappling match (where I think they are near even with an edge to manny) and therefore the fight could play out almost entirely on the feet... so its hard for me to say with confidence that he can win a striking match if it were to play out that way... I want to hit him, but he's at -170 on my book and I put their lines much more closer to evens (manny -130ish and omig at evens)... Will prob go with him, but short on cash so I need to really pick my spot and pick a winner here!!

Any of you like yaya or nam? What about varner at evens?

[Grabaka]

I dont think the way to go in this event is with a big play. I'm spreading my risks all over.

250 on Michihiro Omigawa @ +137
250 on Nam Pham @ +104
250 on Jamie Varner @ +102
200 on John Moraga @ +159
100 on Rani Yahya @ +146
100 on Oli Thompson @ +176

80 on Machida Dec @ +205
50 on Shogun Dec @ +414
50 on Varner Dec @ +300

...Some parlays...

[beermankirk]

Phil Davis/ Machida parlay paying -200

[Vaughany]

Yea I just read your stuff in your thread about manny, I agree with almost everything. However, I don't know that he will be a much superior striker than omig and I think if that's the case he could have trouble winning a grappling match (where I think they are near even with an edge to manny) and therefore the fight could play out almost entirely on the feet... so its hard for me to say with confidence that he can win a striking match if it were to play out that way... I want to hit him, but he's at -170 on my book and I put their lines much more closer to evens (manny -130ish and omig at evens)... Will prob go with him, but short on cash so I need to really pick my spot and pick a winner here!!

Any of you like yaya or nam? What about varner at evens?

Like Yayha at these odds, I think he should be at Evens. I'll write my thoughts on him later when I post my play

[gabe]

Like Yayha at these odds, I think he should be at Evens. I'll write my thoughts on him later when I post my play

I agree it should be +EV, but Grispi has the advantage in the stand up

[NunyaBidness]

I agree it should be +EV, but Grispi has the advantage in the stand up

Grispi has the advantage everywhere for the first 90 seconds.

[gabe]

Yea I just read your stuff in your thread about manny, I agree with almost everything. However, I don't know that he will be a much superior striker than omig and I think if that's the case he could have trouble winning a grappling match (where I think they are near even with an edge to manny) and therefore the fight could play out almost entirely on the feet... so its hard for me to say with confidence that he can win a striking match if it were to play out that way... I want to hit him, but he's at -170 on my book and I put their lines much more closer to evens (manny -130ish and omig at evens)... Will prob go with him, but short on cash so I need to really pick my spot and pick a winner here!!

Any of you like yaya or nam? What about varner at evens?

Yeah, I really like Varner at evens. Also on Nam for a small play. Might go small on Yaya or pass that fight, as Grispi tends to be gassed out in the 3rd and would be vulnerable to submissions. But I think Grispi can win the first 2.

About Manny, I think if he gets a hold of Omigawa, he can take the fight to the ground. He knows how to handle Japanese judokas. But I don't know if he'll decide to implement his judo. Karo would have...

But yeah, I do give Manny the striking advantage because of his powerful over-hand right and Omigawa's poor striking defense.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I dont think the way to go in this event is with a big play. I'm spreading my risks all over.

250 on Michihiro Omigawa @ +137
250 on Nam Pham @ +104
250 on Jamie Varner @ +102
200 on John Moraga @ +159
100 on Rani Yahya @ +146
100 on Oli Thompson @ +176

80 on Machida Dec @ +205
50 on Shogun Dec @ +414
50 on Varner Dec @ +300

...Some parlays...

Nice plays man... Lean on all your picks except for omigawa, but then again I'd put him at evens so a +140ish line ain't bad and I can't knock you for taking that on value.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Like Yayha at these odds, I think he should be at Evens. I'll write my thoughts on him later when I post my play

Right on, cruising over to your thread in just a bit!!

[MMAbetMASTA]

Grispi has the advantage everywhere for the first 90 seconds.

yesss surrr, my thoughts exactly... He wins mostly within the first couple minutes of the fight.. Then he seems to slow dramatically and his technique drops a level.. Plus, when you really look at his record, he's fought some HORRIBLE comp for the most part... he had a nice little streak in wec, but then again he finished them all within a couple min, so its hard to gauge how good he really was and if those guys he beat just 'got caught' (but then again I don't believe in lucky punches / subs, so they are legit and I'm not taking anything away from those wins), so part of me thinks those fights would have played out differently had his opponents survived past the first few min... And he ain't catching yahya in a sub so I don't see the quick finish... Prob gonna be a closely contested decision and therefore yahya at dog odds has some value imo..