Really liking StunGun at these odds.
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I agree with locksmith about Silva. I think he smashes Sonnen here. Even if Silva isn't 100% I take him easily at this price.Comment -
I agree, Stungun can grind this one out. Maia may be happy to accept the takedowns and work his jiujitsu. I don't really see him pulling off the sub. A decision prop on Stungun may be better at the right price, but the last few fights he's had the decision prop has been very close to his price SU.Comment -
Don't see how anyone can back Maia at these odds.Comment -
I'm thinking Anderson Silva ITD is the play !!! I expect AS to go for the KO/TKO he already submitted him once .
Hes going to do what Mir did to NogComment -
Don't understand how you guys think Silva -260 is a steal against a guy that beat the shit out of him for 23 minutes once before.Comment -
My big play on this card will be Barao. I may put a small play on Tito as well. Silva/Sonnen is a no play imo, but Silva wins me thinks..Comment -
I want to make a sizable play on DHK, but not sure where this line is moving. I only see DHK backers here, and not one Maia backer, but I could see Maia getting action by the public based on name recognition and maybe the fact that he's moving down a weight class.Comment -
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HAHA......... wrong card - god i'm a retard.
Still, Barao is a good play at anything close to -170, or below imo. For this card, I will play DHK, prob something small. Also playing something small on Tito, and that's it. I am waiting for UFC 150. I got a huge play that I will be making, and any of the big dogs on here should be able to recognize what that bet is. The line isn't up on my book yet, but if Benson Henderson stays at the -160 to -170 range, I will be pounding the shit out of that. Henderson wins handly, again, imo. POUND THAT SHIT!
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I think Henderson's line will only improve buddy. It's still -125 to -140 range on all the European sites...I've maxed the -125 on betfred a couple of times and -137.5 on sportingbetHAHA......... wrong card - god i'm a retard. Still, Barao is a good play at anything close to -170, or below imo. For this card, I will play DHK, prob something small. Also playing something small on Tito, and that's it. I am waiting for UFC 150. I got a huge play that I will be making, and any of the big dogs on here should be able to recognize what that bet is. The line isn't up on my book yet, but if Benson Henderson stays at the -160 to -170 range, I will be pounding the shit out of that. Henderson wins handly, again, imo. POUND THAT SHIT!Comment -
dirppppppppppppppppaaaaaaaaaaa durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!haha......... Wrong card - god i'm a retard. Still, barao is a good play at anything close to -170, or below imo. For this card, i will play dhk, prob something small. Also playing something small on tito, and that's it. I am waiting for ufc 150. I got a huge play that i will be making, and any of the big dogs on here should be able to recognize what that bet is. The line isn't up on my book yet, but if benson henderson stays at the -160 to -170 range, i will be pounding the shit out of that. Henderson wins handly, again, imo. Pound that shit!Comment -
My thoguhts exactly, but then again its prob as cheap as you're ever gonna get Asilva SU... This is what I just posted in the other silva /sonnen thread, my thoughts on it:
If you buy that rib injury... I don't, but I'm not saying he's lying or that its not true, I'm just saying I don't think it was as serious as it was and is more of an *cough cough* 'excuse' after he got completely dominated, owned, and wrestle ****** for 23 minutes...
Also, what would lead you to believe that anderson wasn't focused on defending tds in the first match? I don't see how he can be anymore prepared on defending tds this time around / I don't see how he now might suddenly realize chael is going to go for td after td after td in this rematch... It should have been obvious the first time around imo and therefore I guarantee it was a main training focus in that camp - work the tdd.
Yes, I understand why people are jumping on anderson's line, as it is very cheap and prob as cheap as you're gonna get him, but I don't see how people can lay that kind of juice on a guy who truly got dominated and taken out of his element for 23 minutes the first time they fought...
I guess if you believe the injury truly hindered that performance, then yes, I can see why you think their will be a big difference this time around. But that is a big 'if' to bank on and believe in, because like I said I certainly don't buy the injury stuff - if you have a clear cut broken rib or even a severly bruised rib before a fight you're gonna see the effects much more obvious than what he showed in that fight (he would have been gasping for breathe and wincing in pain on deep breaths, among other symptoms), I truly think its nonsense but that's just my opinion.
On the flip side, I could very well see anderson subbing chael again, probably even sooner than before... Similar to that I don't think anderson's tdd is gonna be much improved from the first match, I don't think chael's sub defense will be much improved either... So I def don't rule out anderson catching chael in a sub or sweeping chael from top position..
Anderson itd or Sonnen decision would be the plays if you have prop options and you're interested in this match...Comment -
On a future card I'm on a huge play on Barao. He's not on this card anymore.
Can't wait to see the outcome of the Sonnen vs Silva fight. No play from me on this fight.Comment -
Your correct that alot depends on if you believe anderson was injured the first time, or the severity of the injury. another consideration is chaels testosterone level in the first match. I'm not sure how much of an impact that had but we have to assume it gave him some advantage if he was willing to cheat (and other fighters too).
but I dont think chaels success in the first fight was simply a matter of tds and lack of tdd. Iirc, chael landed some solid strikes as well. Probably the best striking he has displayed in a fight. This is something that anderson can prepare for this time around.
I dont know man, maybe I can't get over some of chaels mental breakdowns in the past. I just think he fought the perfect fight the first time and he still couldn't get it done. I think anderson will be better prepared, lower testosterone levels, and all this assuming anderson is healthy. I made my plays before these injury rumors and to be honest, if I was making a decision today I would probably avoid this fight.Comment -
Chael/Mendes/ Jones/hendo ITD = +344
Silva ITD/Mendes/ Jones/hendo ITD = +144
thats with mendes at -650, just what i figured he will be around.
im thinking of those 2 as my plans for that fight.Comment -
Sonnen Testosterone levels were at 17:1 for the first fight. Thats higher than what Overeem got popped for. The legal limit in Nevada is 6:1. Assuming Sonnen doesn't cheat again, any thoughts on how a lower level for Sonnen may impact is effectiveness? Especially with being able to manhandle Silva like he did?Comment -
Really 17:1? I thought I read somewhere that it was 7:1 the first time, but perhaps I read a typo...
I know they approved his trt, and doesn't that mean he can have elevated testosterone levels approved by the commission or something?
If he was really 17:1 and the legal limit for a trt user is 6:1 now, then that would certainly have an affect on sonnen's performance in this rematch imo.
I've just been under the impression that his testosterone level in the first fight was only slightly above what he's going to be allowed this fight (in that case I don't think his testosterone levels will have much an impact on his performance compared to last).. yet perhaps I read wrong.
Can anyone clarify this and the exact levels sonnen was at the first time and what level he's allowed at on trt this time???Last edited by MMAbetMASTA; 06-26-12, 11:01 PM.Comment -
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Nate Wilcox wrote this yesterday in an article on BE and then I saw the actual document and it was in fact 16.9:1 ratio
"Sonnen infamously failed a urine test post-fight for an elevated testosterone ratio (he was at 17:1 testosterone:epitestosterone) and had to serve a long suspension from the California State Athletic Commission. He's now got his therapeutic use exemption (TUE) for testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) so unless he fails a test between now and fight time, we should finally be getting our rematch."
This time I assume he would be allowed no more than 6:1 like anybody else. The TRT exemption isnf mean't to allow him higher levels, just to get his low levels (presumably from taking steroids in the past) back to the normal range. Wheather or not he cheats again is anybodies guess.Last edited by dww123; 06-27-12, 12:06 AM.Comment -
From the look of his face/physique (and being averse to busting the testosterone levels) -- I think he's pushing the HGH for this fight. His facial structure seems to have changed a bit (grown) and he's bigger than he's ever been.
Chael will do whatever it takes to win. If you take 1 weapon away (testosterone) -- he's just get another one (HGH).
That's my theory.
As far as helping him in the fight? A little bit. But nowhere near what heavy dosages of testosterone will do for you.
That being said -- it's NOT HARD to change a few metabolites or chemical structures and create something that's UNDETECTABLE. Most of the top athletes have their own chemist. I know this for a fact.Comment -
I agree here and am surprised people are not talking about this more. In the first round of their last fight Chael caught him and Anderson was clearly stunned, which set up the takedown that followed. This probably had some effect on Anderson's TDD throughout the fight. Who knows if he even got his legs back completely. In the very least it wore Anderson out, got Chael through the most dangerous part of the fight, and gave him confidence.
Everything went perfectly for Chael last time and I don't really see the same thing happening. Also, having 17:1 testesterone won't make you a more skilled striker but it surely has to give you confidence which you need to throw with someone like Anderson. More test in his system than Reem, guy must have felt like a superhero.Comment -
[IMG]<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Xl7WwxQVi1A?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>[/IMG]Comment -
Lots of good discussion here about sonnen's testrone levels and whatnot, thank you all for the insight.
I'll admit, now that I realize his level was 17:1 in the first match and will now be 6:1 this time around, that kind of changes my perspective.
I still think the value is on sonnen and still plan on doubling my play on him when I think the odds are optimal, but I can understand why poeople might think asilva's tdd or ability to perform in this match will be different than the first - sonnen's levels w/out a doubt had a big effect on that fight and therefore silva might look like a completely different fighter and sonnen might not be the same td machine and super chin slugger he was in the first match.
However, because I still think this fight is much closer than the actual line reflects I have to go with the value play which is sonnen, especially is silva gets slammed and sonnen becomes a much bigger dog.
Either way I can't wait!!! Gonna be awesome
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