UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II

[DublinMeUp]

capping a fight based on one previous fight in which extenuating circumstances applied to both fighters is +EV

[scofflaw]

Not smart putting Chael in more than one Parlay. I hope you're not counting on those parlays to win.

Yeah I know it's not smart with underdogs. In my eyes it was mostly a Sonnen ML play because the amounts are small and paired with other fights I felt confident about. Werdum, Sonnen + Werdum, Franklin, Sonnen.

[Thor4140]

when guys were getting on me about a value of a line this Cody Mendes fight is what i was talking about. I don't care if Cody is getting 20 to 1. There is no way i see him winning this fight unless Mendes comes in hurt or braindead. I still haven't seen a line come out for this fight. Mendes should retire if he loses this one.

[Vaughany]

when guys were getting on me about a value of a line this Cody Mendes fight is what i was talking about. I don't care if Cody is getting 20 to 1. There is no way i see him winning this fight unless Mendes comes in hurt or braindead. I still haven't seen a line come out for this fight. Mendes should retire if he loses this one.

haha would tend to agree with this

[PunisherIND]

http://espn.go.com/blog/mma/post/_/id/12431/griffin-hints-retirement-is-near

ESPN.com: Does it matter to you how you go out? Does it matter if you go out, losing five of your last six or whatever?

Griffin: Yeah. You’ve tarnished yourself. You should have quit while you were breaking even, which is kind of where I’m at now. Thing about Tito’s losses, if I’m fighting that level of guys, I don’t know if I’m losing six in a row but I might go 2-4. If you’re fighting great guys, you’re fighting great guys. It depends on the opponent.

lol forrest cracks me up.

[Thor4140]

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[Educ8d Degener8]

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Gotta disagree with Chael's quote at the end where he says 'there has never been an answer for throwing a guy on his back and running fists and elbows into his face.'

I present exhibit A...

[Vaughany]

Gotta disagree with Chael's quote at the end where he says 'there has never been an answer for throwing a guy on his back and running fists and elbows into his face.'

I present exhibit A...

haha yeah I laughed at tht shiit! Amazing how many people probably watch and listen to tht and nod their head in disillusioned agreement!

[Vitooch]

I don't think Chael understands the concept of submissions, either. What does he think would have happened if he didn't tap? Chael didn'y put Silva in such a predicament during their whole 5 rounds of fighting. If I didn't think Chael was just being a troll, I would say he is an absolute moron.

[visualrealism]

Any odds on Cung Le ??

[Vaughany]

Any odds on Cung Le ??

Not yet

[Thor4140]

http://www.mmafighting.com/ufc/2012/6/30/3126871/ufc-117-rewind-anderson-silva-vs-chael-sonnen-fight-video-free

The way Sonnen goes after Silva has all the signs of the 16 to 1 testosterone levels he had. You think u could beat a bear. Especially the first minute of round 4. That has testosterone written all over it. fight was a lot better then i originally remembered.

[Irish Jet]

Don't see Sonnen getting KO'd, he never does get KO'd. I suspect it will be more similar to the first fight than people think. Sonnen probably wont have the same striking success, but he should be able to get a TD or two and take it to him on the ground. Sonnen's best chance is to make it a grappling match, keep it on the ground and try and dominate the fight much like last time, I think he can do that. I just don't think he'll be able to do it for 5 rounds without being caught by Anderson again with a hold. If Sonnen could defend a submission he would be an elite fighter, it's always been his problem and I suspect it will be again.

Silva in 3 via submission.

[Thor4140]

After reviewing the first fight i think the bruised or broken rib excuse by Silva might have been a little bit of bullshit. He came in at 184.5. Pretty hard to do with a bruised rib. He was moving just like he always does and Sonnen just basically stood with him and bull rushed him. Only time i saw Silva grab his rib was after the fight. I think i will just enjoy this fight. Gun to my head i would take Silva and hope he treats Sonnen like he treated Forrest. Only problem is that Sonnen is diff top five in MMA with his takedowns. Prolly top two. If Sonnen wins i see the same shoulder triangle he beat Stann with. I thought he had a shot with that a few times the first fight but who knows if he was as well versed at it as he is now.

[MMAbetMASTA]

After reviewing the first fight i think the bruised or broken rib excuse by Silva might have been a little bit of bullshit. He came in at 184.5. Pretty hard to do with a bruised rib. He was moving just like he always does and Sonnen just basically stood with him and bull rushed him. Only time i saw Silva grab his rib was after the fight. I think i will just enjoy this fight. Gun to my head i would take Silva and hope he treats Sonnen like he treated Forrest. Only problem is that Sonnen is diff top five in MMA with his takedowns. Prolly top two. If Sonnen wins i see the same shoulder triangle he beat Stann with. I thought he had a shot with that a few times the first fight but who knows if he was as well versed at it as he is now.

agree 100%

[MMAbetMASTA]

Kim / Maia discussion and concerns

Wanted to get some thoughts / discussion on Kim / Maia...

Kim impressed with his stand up against pierson (and really, in other fights outside of getting blasted away by condit or the last round against nate, he's done pretty darn well in the stand up department in most matches), so I think I would give him the edge in a prolonged stand up fight, which I INITIALLY thought the match would be - a stand up fight...

Like many i expected this fight to stay up because I thought maia for one, might not have the ground game approach in his mind and would choose to slug it out as he has against fellow grapplers of late, and two, Kim's base seems pretty solid and if it were to hit the ground I think it would be kim taking maia down, I initially thought kim would be able to stuff maia assumng maia even went for tds....

HOWEVER, after doing some more thorough research there are some things that have scared me now.

Brown was able to take kim down a few times in the 2nd and 3rd, took his back a couple times, and from other fights I've followed up on kim has had his back taken a few times and has been taken down and put in some bad spots (mostly based on his karo and brown fights, and didn't pierson take his back for a moment too as well as diaz? Also the condit sweep from the bottom as someone pointed out?)...

What I'm getting at is maia has underrated tds imo, and after doing some research I am not as sold on kim's base / tdd as I initially was... so now I give maia a better chance to get kim down... Also, I think maia is by far the best positional and sub grappler kim has faced, so if brown and others could put kim down and give him a few tight spots and / or reversals, what's gonna happen if maia is in those spots???

If I knew this could stay on the feet for 3 rounds I would be all over kim, but now that sounds a little easier said than done.

I realize the weight cut and maia's performances as of late might leave some to believe maia is either gonna bang on the feet for 3 rounds and not pursue a td, or is not gonna have the 'pep' or stength he once had to absolutely dominate people on the ground and would not fare well against a battle for position, especially with kim on top... Yet now I'm not so certain. Then again I'm really questioning how maia's cut is gonna be, because it seemed he really muscled up and put on some mass over the courese of his zuffa mw career, and now he is planning to cut a lot of that off??? He was already sluggish at mw and unlike other weight cuts for some fighters, I'm thinking this one might be worse off for maia...?

I was thinking kim was gonna be one of the only 'favorite' palys for me this card (depending on a few other fights I'm hoping to get a decent 'fav' line on), but now I'm not so certain about the paly. If I had decision option at +150 I'd be all over that, but I don't have props so I'm looking at a -135 SU line and now I can't pull the trigger.

Any new thoughts on this fight?? or agreements / disagreements with what I've said??

[Thor4140]

Wanted to get some thoughts / discussion on Kim / Maia...

Kim impressed with his stand up against pierson (and really, in other fights outside of getting blasted away by condit or the last round against nate, he's done pretty darn well in the stand up department in most matches), so I think I would give him the edge in a prolonged stand up fight, which I INITIALLY thought the match would be - a stand up fight...

Like many i expected this fight to stay up because I thought maia for one, might not have the ground game approach in his mind and would choose to slug it out as he has against fellow grapplers of late, and two, Kim's base seems pretty solid and if it were to hit the ground I think it would be kim taking maia down, I initially thought kim would be able to stuff maia assumng maia even went for tds....

HOWEVER, after doing some more thorough research there are some things that have scared me now.

Brown was able to take kim down a few times in the 2nd and 3rd, took his back a couple times, and from other fights I've followed up on kim has had his back taken a few times and has been taken down and put in some bad spots (mostly based on his karo and brown fights, and didn't pierson take his back for a moment too as well as diaz? Also the condit sweep from the bottom as someone pointed out?)...

What I'm getting at is maia has underrated tds imo, and after doing some research I am not as sold on kim's base / tdd as I initially was... so now I give maia a better chance to get kim down... Also, I think maia is by far the best positional and sub grappler kim has faced, so if brown and others could put kim down and give him a few tight spots and / or reversals, what's gonna happen if maia is in those spots???

If I knew this could stay on the feet for 3 rounds I would be all over kim, but now that sounds a little easier said than done.

I realize the weight cut and maia's performances as of late might leave some to believe maia is either gonna bang on the feet for 3 rounds and not pursue a td, or is not gonna have the 'pep' or stength he once had to absolutely dominate people on the ground and would not fare well against a battle for position, especially with kim on top... Yet now I'm not so certain. Then again I'm really questioning how maia's cut is gonna be, because it seemed he really muscled up and put on some mass over the courese of his zuffa mw career, and now he is planning to cut a lot of that off??? He was already sluggish at mw and unlike other weight cuts for some fighters, I'm thinking this one might be worse off for maia...?

I was thinking kim was gonna be one of the only 'favorite' palys for me this card (depending on a few other fights I'm hoping to get a decent 'fav' line on), but now I'm not so certain about the paly. If I had decision option at +150 I'd be all over that, but I don't have props so I'm looking at a -135 SU line and now I can't pull the trigger.

Any new thoughts on this fight?? or agreements / disagreements with what I've said??

Mia to me is a real frustrating fighter to bet and not even worth the funds to take a chance on him. He might once again pull out the Georgy Gurgel playbook on how to lose using ur weakest skill set. Mia standup has improved greatly but when u are a world class Ju jitz guy who the hell wants to bet u and watch u stand three rounds? Most likely another three round decision where u are sweating your balls off waiting for the split decision and praying the judges don't fuk it up. It would be Mia or nothing here for me and i prefer nothing.

[Thor4140]

Can't wait to see this Mendes line. Got to be in the area of 5 or 6 to 1.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Mia to me is a real frustrating fighter to bet and not even worth the funds to take a chance on him. He might once again pull out the Georgy Gurgel playbook on how to lose using ur weakest skill set. Mia standup has improved greatly but when u are a world class Ju jitz guy who the hell wants to bet u and watch u stand three rounds? Most likely another three round decision where u are sweating your balls off waiting for the split decision and praying the judges don't fuk it up. It would be Mia or nothing here for me and i prefer nothing.

I'm kind of the opposite, for me its a play on kim or no play at all... So I'm trying to decide what to do and hoping to get some thoughts on this one. Thanks for the insight, agree on the sweating your balls off for the split decision - could def see that scenario happening.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I'm kind of the opposite, for me its a play on kim or no play at all... So I'm trying to decide what to do and hoping to get some thoughts on this one. Thanks for the insight, agree on the sweating your balls off for the split decision - could def see that scenario happening.

These are the issues I have with picking DHK.

A lot of people are saying that DHK will be able to control Maia on the ground because he was able to do so to Diaz for 2 rounds and neutralize all his sub attempts. But while Diaz is really good off his back he had no real business at 170 and he was giving up size and strength to DHK, so it's not like DHK was able to do that using technique alone. Now, Maia is coming down from 185 and should be bigger than DHK, can DHK hold him down without getting swept? Condit was able to. Could he avoid take downs if Mia decides to go that route? Could he out strike Maia for a decision?

God knows what Maia's striking looks like but we know he has been training it because he "tried" to utilize it in his last fight. I would hate to have to sweat the judging on a stand up battle between these two guys. There really are too many question marks for me to bet this. Will definitely check out the live betting.

[Thor4140]

Will definitely check out the live betting.

To me that is the only way to go here. Get a feel what the heck Maia is doing and hopefully it goes past a round and then make a wager.

[DeFactoCrippler]

To me that is the only way to go here. Get a feel what the heck Maia is doing and hopefully it goes past a round and then make a wager.

Yeah, I'm curious about how Maia will deal with the weight cut too. Will probably be an advantage in the first round, but he may start to fade.

[Beelzebubzy]

Cote opened up at -275, Ill wait for Cote by KO

Mendes at -450

[Thor4140]

Cote opened up at -275, Ill wait for Cote by KO

Mendes at -450

i think the linesmakeers finally agree with me that Cung Lee is a stiff. Cote giving -275 has to be embarrassing for Lee. That Mendes line will shoot up

[Thor4140]

anyone in Vegas?

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[Beelzebubzy]

i think the linesmakeers finally agree with me that Cung Lee is a stiff. Cote giving -275 has to be embarrassing for Lee. That Mendes line will shoot up

Money is coming in on Le

[Thor4140]

Money is coming in on Le

i could never bet Lee but that price could make me. I mean this is Cote not Bones Jones. Cote has that great beard that keeps him in any standing war tho.

[Thor4140]

that fast Mendes up to 5 to 1.

[Thor4140]

Yeah, I'm curious about how Maia will deal with the weight cut too. Will probably be an advantage in the first round, but he may start to fade.

Yeah he does fade.

[DeFactoCrippler]

i think the linesmakeers finally agree with me that Cung Lee is a stiff. Cote giving -275 has to be embarrassing for Lee. That Mendes line will shoot up

The linesmaker definitely knows what he's doing here. Public was all over Cung at the same price versus focking Rich Franklin. He had to know he would get Cung money here.

[DeFactoCrippler]

The way Sonnen goes after Silva has all the signs of the 16 to 1 testosterone levels he had. You think u could beat a bear. Especially the first minute of round 4. That has testosterone written all over it. fight was a lot better then i originally remembered.

Agree man. You have to know the juice helped him cause of the massive fall off he had against Bisping. How can be in beat mode against Silva the turn around and look like that? The other guy to pull that stunt was Bonnar against Coleman and Bonnar was caught for the juice later. Probably focked up his cycle for that fight or something.

It's just like in the movie "the program" when that guy gives up the juice and then gets trucked on the goal line to lose the bowl game. Just like Shawn Merriman, he was a BEAST until he got caught for the juice then this shit happened. Life imitating art?

[Thor4140]

Agree man. You have to know the juice helped him cause of the massive fall off he had against Bisping. How can be in beat mode against Silva the turn around and look like that? The other guy to pull that stunt was Bonnar against Coleman and Bonnar was caught for the juice later. Probably focked up his cycle for that fight or something.

It's just like in the movie "the program" when that guy gives up the juice and then gets trucked on the goal line to lose the bowl game. Just like Shawn Merriman, he was a BEAST until he got caught for the juice then this shit happened. Life imitating art?

lol Merriman. I always thought the same thing. Guy was a killer and than a bum. amazing what that stuff can do.

[Educ8d Degener8]

lol Merriman. I always thought the same thing. Guy was a killer and than a bum. amazing what that stuff can do.

Then that annoying midget whore beat Merriman's ass too, right?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

wow +200 for Cung Le, never expected him to open as such a big dog against a guy who never takes it to the ground

[GunShard]

I think Cung Le's age makes it risky betting on him.