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If this knee injury is at all serious, Silva and Soares will back out of this fight. Watched the UFC 117 fight again today and still like Silva a lot in this rematch. Sonnen's style is to take guys down and do just enough to not get stood up. He landed a few big shots on Silva, but failed to capitalize when he did have him wobbled and at no time was Silva close to being finished. Most of it was pitter patter stuff that looked like he was doing a lot, but was doing little to no damage. Sonnen had an opportunity to mount Silva in the 5th round yet he passed through and went to side control. Even in interviews after, he stated that he had to do enough not to get stood up when he was asked why he didn't stall. Chael cannot finish Silva, he can only outwrestle him. The problem is that he has to do it for 5 full rounds, avoid gassing, and avoid submission. With his style, he has proven that he cannot do that against elite BJJ fighters.
I'm hoping that the public buys Sonnen big here and Silva's odds dip to close to -200 as they did in the Vitor fight. This may be the last time we see good value for Silva. Silva and inside the distance will most likely be my bets. Waiting for the UFC hype machine videos to start telling everyone that Sonnen has a chance though.Comment -
Asilva Out???
Yes its a forum read, but just read it and the guy has some decent insight (take it for what you will, prob bs but it makes sense unfortunately).... I'm gonna shit a few bricks if this is true
considering bisping is out of the boetsch fight (due to injury), it somewhat makes sense, esepcially when he says he'd fight for the title injured and in the tweet he put up in this forum ts' link, he said something like 'get ready for sonnen bisping 2'.... What a cluster fuckk of match change ups (super bummed about lombard / stann as well)...
Hopefully just a stupid rumor and not true, but yea........
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Faber Vs Barao off this card and now headlining UFC 149 with Aldo injured. Injuries getting crazyComment -
148 getting weaker & weaker!Comment -
The amount of significant injuries altering cards is getting crazy. Dropped big $ on UFC 146 presale tix expecting the best card of the year and a competitive heavyweight title fight. Was still a great card, but I learned my lesson as far as expecting announced cards.Comment -
Might have a couple larger wager for this card.
Like a few matchups.Comment -
[QUOTE=MMAbetMASTA;14905262]where the hell are your bets on here???
Oh yea, you're like half the other fuckkks who talk shit here and talk a big game but don't have the balls to post your bets (not picks) BEFORE the fights...Coming on the threads after the fights saying 'oh lucky i had X many units on so-and so, easy win!!" (guarantee you'll do the same if rich wins) lol.. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't recall you posting anything with regard to plays here.. You probably don't even bet either, prob just some broke ass chump still living in mom's basement...
Show some respect, V makes in just one event what you prob make in a couple weeks working at kfc...[/QUOTE] LOL!!!!
Don't even waste your time with this retard BetMasta. He doesn't grasp the simple concept of odds, and value. Plus, he hasn't bet on shit, and he hasn't posted any ticket numbers, hence he is full of shit.Comment -
Ortiz/Griffin to go distance is only -140...Comment -
Is the Silva and Sonnen fight canceled due to injuries?Comment -
Well, Anderson left the training camp earlier yesterday with muscle aches. After that, he was seen here in a well-known Shopping in Rio with his team, making a commercial for Burger King (one of his sponsors). I still think this fight will not happen and, if it happens, Sonnen is the deal!Comment -
I was originally wanting to go on Anderson at -250 in Brazil... but now that his line is getting worse and probably will continue to get worse, the fight in in the US, and these injury rumors are circulating... I'm thinking of holding out and catching Sonnen at a reduced line. Who knows, could hit +300. I give him better odds than that to win.Comment -
It's hard to predict whether the line will widen closer to the fight given the rumours surrounding Anderson's health and the fight being in Vegas. IMO +EV bettors should already be on Chael at an implied probability of 30% to win but it's hard to predict the betting public when Anderson has been a golden god for 7 years straight.Comment -
In most cases the bigger named fighter (especially long-term champs) tend to get pounded moreso towards fight night. May not be the case here w/ the rumors floating as some of you have mentioned... but I don't think Anderson's line gets any better without some solid evidence of his injury.Comment -
if i think someone is gonna smash someone but im laying 20 to 1 i should now take the odds u halfwit? NO ten out of ten times that guy gets smashed. Now if i see two close fighters and one is a good dog i take the dog. Yes in a way i will use odds in fight i feel is close. I don't give a dick what odds are if i think a guy is gonna kill someone. Now fuk off.Comment -
i find it pretty comical that when someone has an opinion on this site a few of the ego's get riled up like somehow they think this is the only site people post mma stuff on
News flash fellas there are other sites that have MMA sections.
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There's value on Sonnen because of the injury factor and how Sonnen performed in the previous fight.Comment -
Silva shouldn't be this large of a favorite imo. If we were to set the line based on their first fight, AS would be an underdog. Obviously we have other questions pulling the line to where it is: (in addition to Silva being a longtime champion)
Was Anderson not running at full clip because of a rip injury?
Did Chael gain an advantage with a higher than allowed testosterone levels that he won't have again?
Is it possible their first fight was a fluke bad night for Anderson and he'll be better prepared for Sonnen this time?
Was Chael's underwhelming performance in the Bisping fight because of a decline?
Is Chael such a bad stylistic match-up for AS that we'll see mostly the same result?
It all depends how much you value specific information. I don't believe we have access to much information that would tell us why and how this fight will be different. There's too many variables so I'll use the information I believe to be correct: Chael is a bad stylistic match-up for AS, He dominated the first fight so I have no reason to think he can't do it again. I'm not super confident in him, but at the current odds, back in Vegas, Sonnen is the bet to make.
If the line were even I'd still take Sonnen straight. I won't pound it because I don't like that risk but if someone offered me $50 to pick a winner, I'd say Chael. I think his takedowns, top control and improving submission skills will dictate the fight if he manages to not get caught on the feet. My logical prediction is Sonnen by decision, but I'd love to say Sonnen by 3rd round submission, get it correct, then use that victory as a weapon against my forum enemies.
I feel like Not AS by decision is almost free money and I'm tempted to parlay the shit out of it closer to the fight. Which way do you guys think the ML will move from here if at all? I don't know if I should pull the trigger now or wait for reduced juice.Comment -
Not exactly the same advantage. I believe Chael's T:E was 7:1 and NSAC allows up to 6:1. That means he needs to reduce levels at least 20% if he intends to be within regulation. Personally I don't have a clue what effect (if any) that slight drop will have so I don't take much stock in that talk.
Anderson did look unusually timid and his footwork wasn't there at all. I think that's a combination of the rib injury and facing a wrestler who brings such strong pressure that he's not able to get comfortable in his range like a lot of opponents have allowed him to do.Comment -
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There were rumors about Silva being injured last time around. He didn't look 100% in his last fight with Sonnen. I like Silva here. Probably going to take a prop on him or see how the line moves.Comment -
Probably Soars and Silva playing games with Sonnens head. No freaking way they would go into this fight with a shit knee. No way. And to leak it to give Sonnen more confidence? I highly doubt it.Comment -
Agree 100%...
I took chael a couple weeks ago for not the best odds at +210... However, I only put down about 1/3 the money of what I planned to risk on him, so I am saving the rest of my sonnen coin in case his line gets better...
I think it will get better for reasons chadwick has said here, lots of hardcore silva fans and casual bettors will play the champ the day before and day of the fight imo... But in case sonnen's line doesn't get much better I put 50 on him at +210 and am saving the rest for later.Comment -
A Silva will prolly never be this cheap a price in a fight again.Comment -
Anderson wasn't holding back at the ufc 148 conference today
"Chael is a criminal, he is a criminal. He has been convicted of crimes and he doesn't deserve to be inside the Octagon. When the time is right, I am going to break his face and every one of his teeth in his mouth. Playtime is over, the jokes are over. I am going to beat his ass out of the UFC. He is never going to want to fight again after I am done with him. It doesn't matter if I am on bottom, side or top. Chael is going to get his ass kicked like never before. What I do inside the Octagon is going to change the image of the sport. I am going to make sure his legs are broke and arms are broke he will not be able to walk out by himself. I know he is listening; no more shit talking, it is on now. I'm going to make him pay and make him eat everything he said about myself and my country. I'm going to make sure he does not disrespect any other fighter. I'm going to beat him like his parents should have beat him to have manners. He can say whatever he wants, but I am not playing anymore. It will be the same like the first fight. He walked out the loser and this time he is going to walk out the loser. The only difference is that this time he is going to have to visit a plastic surgeon after the fight."
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Anderson wasn't holding back at the ufc 148 conference today
"Chael is a criminal, he is a criminal. He has been convicted of crimes and he doesn't deserve to be inside the Octagon. When the time is right, I am going to break his face and every one of his teeth in his mouth. Playtime is over, the jokes are over. I am going to beat his ass out of the UFC. He is never going to want to fight again after I am done with him. It doesn't matter if I am on bottom, side or top. Chael is going to get his ass kicked like never before. What I do inside the Octagon is going to change the image of the sport. I am going to make sure his legs are broke and arms are broke he will not be able to walk out by himself. I know he is listening; no more shit talking, it is on now. I'm going to make him pay and make him eat everything he said about myself and my country. I'm going to make sure he does not disrespect any other fighter. I'm going to beat him like his parents should have beat him to have manners. He can say whatever he wants, but I am not playing anymore. It will be the same like the first fight. He walked out the loser and this time he is going to walk out the loser. The only difference is that this time he is going to have to visit a plastic surgeon after the fight."
oh yea! i really hope he brings that fire come fight night.Comment -
I think he kills Sonnen this time, -260 is a steal IMOComment -
that was my original thinking as well. i obviously regret this now as the line has improved, but i played anderson at -300 and thought it was a bargain at the time. that was before all the injury rumors, which, even though dana and anderson are denying, still has me concerned. i did enjoy reading andy's statement though, and i really hope he is healthy and comes with that fire.Comment -
So what is the latest word on Silva health wise? Was gonna take him a few weeks back but luckily held off (due to funds being in transit), I can get him at -250 now and would like to take it but not up on the injury rumours/factsComment
