UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II

[Vaughany]

Cote opened up at -275, Ill wait for Cote by KO

Mendes at -450

i think the linesmakeers finally agree with me that Cung Lee is a stiff. Cote giving -275 has to be embarrassing for Lee. That Mendes line will shoot up

i could never bet Lee but that price could make me. I mean this is Cote not Bones Jones. Cote has that great beard that keeps him in any standing war tho.

Yep, Im sure Cote's solid chin played a big part in Kalikas' thinking on this one. He can take a punch to give one or or more back which could be downfall for Cung who certainly cant take the same level of punishment tht Cote can

The linesmaker definitely knows what he's doing here. Public was all over Cung at the same price versus focking Rich Franklin. He had to know he would get Cung money here.

Really didnt expect that line...it shows that Kalikas knows what he's doing...guarantee the lines would of been closer to Evens or perhaps even Cung favourite if Sportbet/5dimes or Sportsbook had released the line. Cung has gone from being favourite against Wanderlei to +200 dog against Cote! Was really hoping tht I'd get Cote at a much better line.

wow +200 for Cung Le, never expected him to open as such a big dog against a guy who never takes it to the ground

Cote has actually gone for takedowns in the past and sometimes gets them. He took Belcher down once in the first round I believe, then the piledriver that led to Cote getting choked out stemmed from a Cote takedown where he was holding on to the double and Belcher jus picked him up and slammed him! Cote also took Scott Smith down briefly in their fight and attempted a takedown on Kendall Grove agaisnt the cage before he dropped him. Also took Todd Brown down in last round of their fight after catching a leg/body kick. Also been working a lot with David Zilberman who wrestled for Canada at the Olympics in 2004. Although it's unlikely, I wouldnt rule out Cote going for the takedown to work some GnP and steal rounds if he isnt having his way standing...after all the place where Cung clearly offers least threat would be on his back so would be safest option for Cote IMO. Whether or not he can get it there if he does have the intention is another question

[Grabaka]

Really didnt expect that line...it shows that Kalikas knows what he's doing...guarantee the lines would of been closer to Evens or perhaps even Cung favourite if Sportbet/5dimes or Sportsbook had released the line. Cung has gone from being favourite against Wanderlei to +200 dog against Cote! Was really hoping tht I'd get Cote at a much better line

Me too.
I took a couple units on Menjivar so far.

[Oblivian]

I'll play Cung Le small here. Despite his loss to Silva, Le was winning the bulk of that fight. It's a similar theme with his first loss to Smith. Le gassing out worried me, but Silva is better at swarming and trapping than Cote. Le has shown pretty good takedown defense, footwork, and striking throughout. I don't think either loss shows a bad chin either. Scott Smith hits hard and Silva just swarmed him while he was gassed. I really don't see the justification for Le sitting in the +200 range. If Le doesn't gas at all or doesn't gas until the third, Cote will likely have to KO him. It's going to be tough getting a decision from Le.

[Vaughany]

I'll play Cung Le small here. Despite his loss to Silva, Le was winning the bulk of that fight. It's a similar theme with his first loss to Smith. Le gassing out worried me, but Silva is better at swarming and trapping than Cote. Le has shown pretty good takedown defense, footwork, and striking throughout. I don't think either loss shows a bad chin either. Scott Smith hits hard and Silva just swarmed him while he was gassed. I really don't see the justification for Le sitting in the +200 range. If Le doesn't gas at all or doesn't gas until the third, Cote will likely have to KO him. It's going to be tough getting a decision from Le.

Yeah, if I had to play at current odds it would be Cung Le. But Cote does have ability to close distance and work the clinch game and maybe get a takedown and work some gnp. But no guarantee he can get the takedown and no guarantee he'll even go for the takedown so counting on him at -260 or whatever he's at is very risky...especially as like u say it will be hard to get the nod from the judges if he hasnt spent some periods of the fight in control on the ground.

[GunShard]

Chael's home and training camp:

[Beelzebubzy]

Yeah, if I had to play at current odds it would be Cung Le. But Cote does have ability to close distance and work the clinch game and maybe get a takedown and work some gnp. But no guarantee he can get the takedown and no guarantee he'll even go for the takedown so counting on him at -260 or whatever he's at is very risky...especially as like u say it will be hard to get the nod from the judges if he hasnt spent some periods of the fight in control on the ground.

i was optimistically hoping for cote as a dog here especially since it is short notice and his grappling is not on franklins level
as I stated Patrick by Ko then he gets on the 149 card because of another injury then rematches Anderson and wins
chandler blades predictions there

[The HOFF]

Loving some Gleison Tibau at -170ish.

[Thor4140]

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[Vaughany]

ha Anderson calling out Sonnen on the Lance Armstrong thing and being a hypocrite!

[Vaughany]

Always a douche trying to get free stuff

[Vaughany]

ha Dana having to get in between them while smirking!

[Thor4140]

Always a douche trying to get free stuff

Should have stop the press conference and tossed the guy out on the street

[Thor4140]

imagine a guy like Tito fighting for the last time and he isn't even invited. That is how much anyone cares about that fight

[Vitooch]

Lots of really tough lines

[DublinMeUp]

I liked the way people were asking Sonnen what his plan was for the fight and how he saw it going, its not like he can do anything else lol, Silva could have answered that question for him

[Vitooch]

Wow after watching some fights I'm very surprised Izquierdo opened at -105. Really liking him here against Oliveira.

[bjpenn85]

what a killer, against a guy that have shown pretty much nothing. Oliveira may have an edge downstairs but not in hell if he can get this kid down.

[Vitooch]

[Vitooch]

what a killer, against a guy that have shown pretty much nothing. Oliveira may have an edge downstairs but not in hell if he can get this kid down.

I saw you backing Izquierdo. Oliveira's stand up is bad. Looping punches, chin up, bad footwork (comes in straight instead of in angles). Izquierdo should have no trouble picking apart him on the feet. Only thing I'm worried about is the the very possibility that Oliveira can takedown Iz. If Oliveira can get a takedown, there is a pretty good chance that he can submit him/controlling him on top. This a classic striker/grappler matchup. Izquierdo showed very good TDD against a much better wrestler in Madadi and Oliveira's wrestling offense isn't very good. I would have undoubtedly grabbed the opener at -105 on 5Dimes but I will wait and see where this line moves.

[Vaughany]

Yep, would probably of played Izq at around Evens...cant pull the trigger at current odds tho

[Vitooch]

Yea can't see there being a ton of action on Iz at -160. Could see this line settling at -140ish.

[Vitooch]

Wow Fabricio Camoes standup is absolutely dreadful, and his wrestling isn't that much better. Guillard by murder.

[bjpenn85]

able to control escudero tho, but i dont think he will get guillard down. Done ego trippin until next tripple KO streak.

[Beelzebubzy]

Loving some Gleison Tibau at -170ish.

Me too

[Vitooch]

I noticed Nurma keeps his chin way too high. A solid boxer with some power like Tibau can catch him.

[Vaughany]

I noticed Nurma keeps his chin way too high. A solid boxer with some power like Tibau can catch him.

lol thought tht sed Nunya! Would explain his absence if he'd been KO'd. Did he say he was going to the WSOP?

[Vitooch]

I miss his witty and sarcastic posts.

[Vitooch]

One of the first cards in a while that's really stressing me out.

[PunisherIND]

http://mmajunkie.com/news/29496/silva-on-why-he-relented-to-ufc-148-title-fight-with-sonnen-i-love-what-i-do.mma

During the extended Q&A portion of the event, he several times repeated promises made on the media call, saying "game is over" for Sonnen.

"You guys will see on Saturday night what I'm talking about," Silva said. "I don't have anything else to say other than he's screwed."

damn i'm getting fired up for this one.

[GunShard]

Silva could front kick Sonnen in the face.

[iQon]

Other than 5dimes and bodog, any US books allowing parlays yet? Hopefully bookmaker?

[MMAbetMASTA]

Me too.
I took a couple units on Menjivar so far.

Why you liking Menjivar / what's your breakdown, Grabaka?

I have been researching this fight, and considering its dead even I'm leaning easton as of right now. Easton's showed tdd issues against dodson (mostly dodson't ability to kick the base leg out when easton would through kicks), and as he slowed in the 3rd - 5th got taken down and has hid back taken repeatedly by beebe - its seems tdd is his biggest weakness. I wouldn't say menji is as good as neither of these men in their td ability or overall wrestling prowess. Menjivar seems to be a positional grappler and good in scrambles, not someone that gets good tds from shots and trips (he's landed 1 in 6 total td attempts since his ufc return. In mma, I think menji is the more overall proven grappler, but on paper easton is bjj by base, two time abu dabi qualifer, and black belt under Irvin. So while minjivar has used his grappling more effective in mma and is more proven in mma with regard to grappling ability, on paper and outside of mma easton sounds like he could possibly be better and that he uses his jitz skills defensivley to keep it a stand up battle.

SO I really think this will come down to the stand up battle and I have to give easton the edge. I really don't think menji is a td machine who can grapple fudge easton. Menji is very tricky and crafty on the feet, but he's also been rocked a good 2-3 times since his return to mma (pickett, albert both had him in trouble). I also think easton might have the best stand up out of anyone he's faced since his return (perhaps not pickett, who I must say menji kept it pretty competitive on the feet). I also think easton's strenght and superb cardio could be problematic and I have to give him an edge there as well. The guy is freakishly strong and has cardio for days. If this mainly plays out on the feet as I suspect, I give it to easton. However, I am scared menji could get a great position in a scramble or sweep a td from a kick or something, possibly sink a sub.

I am kind of scared out of my dhk play, so I'm looking for another non-juicy fav to play.

Love tibau, but have a bad feeling I won't get him below -200 by the time he gets on my book and that's what I capped him at and am willing to pay (hating on those that got the opener!!).

WOuld love to hear your thoughts on this or anyone elses thoughts who are backing menji and why you like him in this fight???

[MMAbetMASTA]

Loving some Gleison Tibau at -170ish.

agree hope to get a decent line by the time he's up on my book, would be all over -170..

[MMAbetMASTA]

Cote has actually gone for takedowns in the past and sometimes gets them. He took Belcher down once in the first round I believe, then the piledriver that led to Cote getting choked out stemmed from a Cote takedown where he was holding on to the double and Belcher jus picked him up and slammed him! Cote also took Scott Smith down briefly in their fight and attempted a takedown on Kendall Grove agaisnt the cage before he dropped him. Also took Todd Brown down in last round of their fight after catching a leg/body kick. Also been working a lot with David Zilberman who wrestled for Canada at the Olympics in 2004. Although it's unlikely, I wouldnt rule out Cote going for the takedown to work some GnP and steal rounds if he isnt having his way standing...after all the place where Cung clearly offers least threat would be on his back so would be safest option for Cote IMO. Whether or not he can get it there if he does have the intention is another question

Agree for the most part, but your last sentence is something I think people are overlooking about cung - the guy is a wrestler by base and his wrestling is underrated imo.. Smoth, Grove, Belcher all imo are lesser skilled wrestler's than cung... Conversely, I think cote's wrestling is also underrated, so who knows.. If cote gets cung on his back he's in a bad, bad spot for sure, but getting him there I think could prove more difficult than most might think. I think cung's biggest weakness in this is his cardio, age and chin. I also think cote will be the much bigger man as cung seems small and soft for mw.. Cote has the chance to land clean, and if cung does fade he could def lose all tdd ability and we see cote's chances of getting this down go up a lot. Yet because this could very well play out on the feet for most the fight, where I still give cung the edge (especially in the first round or however long his cardio is fresh) I would not be paying that juice on cote. If cung were a little bit bigger of a dog around +250ish I would def take a stab at the upset, but as of now not enticing enough at +190.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Wow Fabricio Camoes standup is absolutely dreadful, and his wrestling isn't that much better. Guillard by murder.

Agree, its def rough... Yet the dude also has one hell of a chin and has never been stopped from strikes (but I'll admit melvin is a beast and I don't think there are many human beings who can take his power)... I've juist never been sold on melvin in general, and his ability to make dumb ass mistakes, and his suspect chin (camoes might not have technique but he does have power), makes him almost an 'auto fade' type of guy for me when he's a huge favorite. I can't take camoes here even at those odds as I do think the chance of an upset is smaller than the odds reflect, but I def don't recommend a play on melvin with that juice (hopefully his tko prop will be good for those that like him) as i think there is ALWAYS upset potential with that guy, especially against someone who has some grappling skill and power on the feet.