UFC 144: Japan

**Rubber Guard** · 02-14-12, 03:53 PM

The -210 it was may have not been that ridiculous. But at -290 on Dimes right now...THAT IS VERY RIDICULOUS.

Who knows. He said in an interview recently that the Soti fight was not a cardio issue, he had a lot of things going on there.

He may come in with better cardio. He isn't a HUGE LW, so I am baffled when he had problems with it. He has to understand that he is closer to a title shot than he has ever been, and it would seem he would make sure cardio is a focus in his camp. I wouldn't go so far to say 1st round is his only shot.

I like Pettis and am a fan of his as well. He is young and can improve a bunch. But thus far I don't see anything overly impressive. He beat Bendo, but that was when Bendo was "smooth" after that fight Bendo has taken it up a notch and has gotten way more aggressive using his size to his advantage. Other than that I don't see what he has done special. Beat Stephens by Split, although it probably shouldn't of been a split decision. Not like Joe L has a lot of great wins either. But I think these guys match up very close. Add in the factor of fighting in Japan, and it could come down to who handles the travel and week long prep in Japan better.

I would say 2 to 1 is an ok line. But Pettis is -290 now, that doesn't seem right in my opinion. Joe has won as a big underdog multiple times in his career.

**bjpenn85** · 02-14-12, 04:50 PM

In my eyes if lauzon wins by anything else than a 1.round sub or KO i will be very surprised. He submitted guillard ok, but he lost to florian, he lost against stout, he lost against George S, and he will probably loose against a bunch of other lightweights as well.

**Rubber Guard** · 02-14-12, 05:34 PM

I think he can win the first 2 rounds and win a decision...it is at least an ok possibility in my eyes. Will be interesting to see how the wrestling and clinch matches up.

Also, anyone just looking on the internet that he is only a purple belt, that doesn't really even matter. He is at a blackbelt level and has the grappling advantage over Pettis in my eyes. But they will probably cancel eachother out on the ground.

**bjpenn85** · 02-14-12, 06:31 PM

He may win a decision but that will be his first win by decision ever in his career, and out of all his chances to win, that is the least likely way of him winning. Pettis gets stronger as the fight goes, the exact opposite can be said about lauzon.
Joe Silva prefers to make matches were one fighter have a skill set that directly opposes his opponent. Lauzon was fed guillard in his last fight in terms of his best skill is submission while guillards weakness is submission defence. However, now lauzon gets a striker that have decent tdd and solid submissions, and a fighter that can fight four more rounds

**Vitooch** · 02-14-12, 06:40 PM

Can't wait to see the lines for the rest of this card. I love Hioki by sub and Okami SU in these spots.

**Vitooch** · 02-16-12, 10:18 AM

Bump anyone know when the opening lines will be released

**Vaughany** · 02-16-12, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Can't wait to see the lines for the rest of this card. I love Hioki by sub and Okami SU in these spots.

Hioki probably suffered slightly from UFC debut jitters and his cardio may have been effected by the travelling but nonetheless he failed to submit Roop who's ground game isn't at the level of Palaszewski's. Be interested to hear why you think he'll be able to get Bart to the ground and/or sub him?

**Vaughany** · 02-16-12, 10:50 AM

Maxed the -210 opener. Now at -290

**ghost kid** · 02-16-12, 11:20 AM

Dimes has a successful method with these MMA openers. They set the limits very low, and just wait for the early pennies to tell them which way to go. They give up a couple hundred dollars to have their line sharpened.

I've heard a lot of people say "I love it when Dimes opens!"

Yeah, it's great if you want to make Subway sandwich money - but it sets the line for the rest of the market. Smart on the books part - but brutal for players who want to get a significant amount down early.

Anyone who thinks they are getting beat up by opening Cerrone a plus # against Siver, just isn't seeing the bigger picture.

They don't need to hire a linesmaker. They got players doing that. For Subway Fresh cheap.

**v1y** · 02-16-12, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Dimes has a successful method with these MMA openers. They set the limits very low, and just wait for the early pennies to tell them which way to go. They give up a couple hundred dollars to have their line sharpened.

I've heard a lot of people say "I love it when Dimes opens!"

Yeah, it's great if you want to make Subway sandwich money - but it sets the line for the rest of the market. Smart on the books part - but brutal for players who want to get a significant amount down early.

Anyone who thinks they are getting beat up by opening Cerrone a plus # against Siver, just isn't seeing the bigger picture.

They don't need to hire a linesmaker. They got players doing that. For Subway Fresh cheap.

yeap this man is right.

still don't know how they opened crocop -140 against schaub though.

**Vaughany** · 02-16-12, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Dimes has a successful method with these MMA openers. They set the limits very low, and just wait for the early pennies to tell them which way to go. They give up a couple hundred dollars to have their line sharpened.

I've heard a lot of people say "I love it when Dimes opens!"

Yeah, it's great if you want to make Subway sandwich money - but it sets the line for the rest of the market. Smart on the books part - but brutal for players who want to get a significant amount down early.

Anyone who thinks they are getting beat up by opening Cerrone a plus # against Siver, just isn't seeing the bigger picture.

They don't need to hire a linesmaker. They got players doing that. For Subway Fresh cheap.

Easssy big timer!

**NunyaBidness** · 02-16-12, 11:44 AM

**Vaughany** · 02-16-12, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Dimes has a successful method with these MMA openers. They set the limits very low, and just wait for the early pennies to tell them which way to go. They give up a couple hundred dollars to have their line sharpened.

I've heard a lot of people say "I love it when Dimes opens!"

Yeah, it's great if you want to make Subway sandwich money - but it sets the line for the rest of the market. Smart on the books part - but brutal for players who want to get a significant amount down early.

Anyone who thinks they are getting beat up by opening Cerrone a plus # against Siver, just isn't seeing the bigger picture.

They don't need to hire a linesmaker. They got players doing that. For Subway Fresh cheap.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd5Dl3yUytM

**Vaughany** · 02-16-12, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

lol

**NunyaBidness** · 02-16-12, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Dimes has a successful method with these MMA openers. They set the limits very low, and just wait for the early pennies to tell them which way to go. They give up a couple hundred dollars to have their line sharpened.

I've heard a lot of people say "I love it when Dimes opens!"

Yeah, it's great if you want to make Subway sandwich money - but it sets the line for the rest of the market. Smart on the books part - but brutal for players who want to get a significant amount down early.

Anyone who thinks they are getting beat up by opening Cerrone a plus # against Siver, just isn't seeing the bigger picture.

They don't need to hire a linesmaker. They got players doing that. For Subway Fresh cheap.

What you're saying has a nugget of truth, but its not as large as what you're saying. It'd be true, if 5dimes opened a bad line and instantly moved to the true line off initial action, but that's not what happens. You can usually hit the line several times on its way to the bottom, and often times there is a large bounceback allowing you to hit it again.

Also, other opening books don't offer significantly large limits either, cris is only $250, with no rebets, and bodog/sportsbook are only $500 and they won't keep you at that limit for very long. It's not like if 5d didn't open at $100 openers you'd be able to grab close lines at $5k limits.

I'd rather bet $100 on >30% edge at 5dimes at least once than 3% edges at $250.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 02-16-12, 12:01 PM

Nunya, we would've totally killed it if we were classmates in math class.

**Vaughany** · 02-16-12, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

What you're saying has a nugget of truth, but its not as large as what you're saying. It'd be true, if 5dimes opened a bad line and instantly moved to the true line off initial action, but that's not what happens. You can usually hit the line several times on its way to the bottom, and often times there is a large bounceback allowing you to hit it again.

Also, other opening books don't offer significantly large limits either, cris is only $250, with no rebets, and bodog/sportsbook are only $500 and they won't keep you at that limit for very long. It's not like if 5d didn't open at $100 openers you'd be able to grab close lines at $5k limits.

I'd rather bet $100 on >30% edge at 5dimes at least once than 3% edges at $250.

Couldnt of said it better

The Patrick/Ebersole, Russow/Einemo and even the Means/Magalhaes lines are examples of the bounce-backs and big swings that happen on Sportbet/5dimes. Kalikas still brought Means out at -110 I think despite Sportbet and Sportbook still having him at +140 dog.

**Vitooch** · 02-16-12, 12:09 PM

Where do you think Kongo's line will move? I dont like him at current odds but if it moves favorably i may take a stab

**Vaughany** · 02-16-12, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Where do you think Kongo's line will move? I dont like him at current odds but if it moves favorably i may take a stab

Doubt it will get better than -250

**Vitooch** · 02-16-12, 03:53 PM

Eh I think I may pass on Kongo...

Shields/Okami parlay....ALL DAY

**ghost kid** · 02-16-12, 04:36 PM

Nunya, come on. You've been in this game a long time. You and I both know there are ways to get down much more $ than that on openers.

Dimes' philosophy is smart. I cringe when they open. Like watching a ping pong ball.

Other books move 5 or 10 cents off a 500 spot. Dimes will move 80 cents on a 100 dollar wager. Small plays do help set the lines there, and those #s affect the entire market.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-16-12, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Nunya, come on. You've been in this game a long time. You and I both know there are ways to get down much more $ than that on openers.

In the current US environment, gnoming small market sports doesn't seem worth the hassle to me. Too many links in the chain. I had a dozen of them 7 - 8 years ago when there was real money to be made.

**gabe** · 02-16-12, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

In the current US environment, gnoming small market sports doesn't seem worth the hassle to me. Too many links in the chain. I had a dozen of them 7 - 8 years ago when there was real money to be made.

Wish I knew what any of this meant. =(

**NunyaBidness** · 02-16-12, 11:35 PM

US = United States of America
gnoming = Using someone elses information to set up multiple accounts
Dozen = Twelve

I'm saying that I don't think its worthwhile to do that anymore, unless you're pushing huge volume, which isn't possible with a small market sport like MMA. You've got to pay off your gnomes, cover their tax liabilities, manage multiple bankrolls, harass them to make time consuming deposits/withdrawals, not get stolen from by your gnome, not get your funds taken by the sites, etc.

In the early 2000s there was very easy money to be made gnoming, especially online casinos. $30k easy for each person you could get to help you out. Money moved quick and easy. 90% of that has dried up now.

**gabe** · 02-16-12, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

US = United States of America gnoming = Using someone elses information to set up multiple accounts Dozen = Twelve I'm saying that I don't think its worthwhile to do that anymore, unless you're pushing huge volume, which isn't possible with a small market sport like MMA. You've got to pay off your gnomes, cover their tax liabilities, manage multiple bankrolls, harass them to make time consuming deposits/withdrawals, not get stolen from by your gnome, not get your funds taken by the sites, etc. In the early 2000s there was very easy money to be made gnoming, especially online casinos. $30k easy for each person you could get to help you out. Money moved quick and easy. 90% of that has dried up now.

Setting up a bunch of accounts and making the same bets with all of them? Then giving the people a cut for using their accounts to bet?

That's how I understood it-- if that's the case, did you ever have a bad week and get screwed?

**Vaughany** · 02-17-12, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by [B

NunyaBidness;13776897]US = United States of America
gnoming = Using someone elses information to set up multiple accounts
Dozen = Twelve[/B]

**NunyaBidness** · 02-17-12, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Setting up a bunch of accounts and making the same bets with all of them? Then giving the people a cut for using their accounts to bet?

That's how I understood it-- if that's the case, did you ever have a bad week and get screwed?

I didn't make it clear. Yes, that's what it would be if you were using it for sportsbetting. I was talking about using it for casinio bonuswhoring. There were no bad weeks or bad days, it was too easy.

"Bad weeks" don't really figure into most people's overall picture, if you're not betting locally. You keep a large bankroll online and everything smooths out over time. If you've got a +ROI over millions churned, losing a couple of bets doesn't really faze you anymore.

**gabe** · 02-17-12, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I didn't make it clear. Yes, that's what it would be if you were using it for sportsbetting. I was talking about using it for casinio bonuswhoring. There were no bad weeks or bad days, it was too easy. "Bad weeks" don't really figure into most people's overall picture, if you're not betting locally. You keep a large bankroll online and everything smooths out over time. If you've got a +ROI over millions churned, losing a couple of bets doesn't really faze you anymore.

You should teach a class. Or, just tutor me privately. ha

**NunyaBidness** · 02-17-12, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Or, just tutor me privately. ha

I've been trying. You're too stubborn though.

**gabe** · 02-17-12, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I've been trying. You're too stubborn though.

lol it's hard to fully understand reading in a thread

ps- thanks for not currently attacking me in my thread. i know you probably want to!

**NunyaBidness** · 02-17-12, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by gabe

lol it's hard to fully understand reading in a thread

ps- thanks for not currently attacking me in my thread. i know you probably want to!

V and I take turns. This is his week.

**Vaughany** · 02-17-12, 05:25 PM

lol

**Educ8d Degener8** · 02-17-12, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

V and I take turns. This is his week.

**fosho14** · 02-18-12, 12:45 AM

Will akiyama be able to keep things on the feet against shields?

**Vitooch** · 02-18-12, 01:00 AM

I see this as an easy decision win or sub for shields