UFC 144: Japan

**PizzaParty** · 02-20-12, 10:38 PM

ben henderson coming in heavier than normal is helping his line but im more concerned about him gassing early from the added weight. any thoughts?

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 11:34 PM

So much for Akiyama's 100% TDD... Watching his fight vs Bisping and Bisping takes him down in the first round

**NunyaBidness** · 02-20-12, 11:37 PM

For one millisecond.

**The HOFF** · 02-20-12, 11:45 PM

More lines out:

Got Shields -245 and Bart +155.

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 12:37 AM

Akiyama got back up to his feet pretty quick, but it still counts as a takedown, so his TDD can't be 100%.

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Akiyama got back up to his feet pretty quick, but it still counts as a takedown, so his TDD can't be 100%.

It apparently doesn't 'count' as a takedown, since the official counters of takedowns didn't count it.

**Vitooch** · 02-21-12, 01:19 AM

Shields/Okami parlay looks tasty right now

**more_betterness** · 02-21-12, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by The HOFF

More lines out:

Got Shields -245 and Bart +155.

I need to work out my depositing issues with Bookmaker, by the time I get to these on 5D the lines will be way worse.

**fosho14** · 02-21-12, 02:59 AM

How does the mongolion wolf lose to tamura? This is my 2nd most certain pick among fights below the main card after fukuda over cantwell. Does anyone disagree?

**Vaughany** · 02-21-12, 03:51 AM

Originally posted by gabe

So much for Akiyama's 100% TDD... Watching his fight vs Bisping and Bisping takes him down in the first round

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

For one millisecond.

ha didnt even remember that. Was it after Sexy clipped him

**PunisherIND** · 02-21-12, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by fosho14

How does the mongolion wolf lose to tamura? This is my 2nd most certain pick among fights below the main card after fukuda over cantwell. Does anyone disagree?

tamura can avoid the subs and control him for 3 rounds.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-21-12, 10:52 AM

1u Bart at+150

I am a fan of Bart, thus this is could be a little bit biased. However, I believe that this is a poor stylistic matchup for Hioki. Hikoi fights for the second time in the UFC after his questionable decision win over Roop. Roop was able to hang with him on the ground and wrestle him down as well. Bart here poses a very similar threat as well as a black belt in BJJ. Bart has dropped down to 145 for his second fight after KOing Tyson griffin in a KO of the night performance. Griffin has only been KOed twice in his career, Gomi and Bart. Furthermore, Bart is a true 145er whereas Hioki seems to be a bit small for 145 IMO. Nevertheless, the standup is a clear advantage goes to Bart who has the ability to put decent combinations together. Hiokis best chance is to get a body lock and trip Bart over and over and steal rounds. However, I am counting on Barts size advantage to counteract that

**Oblivian** · 02-21-12, 12:50 PM

I 100% agree with your assessment on Bart/Hioki. Definitely playing Bart here.

**Oblivian** · 02-21-12, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

How does the mongolion wolf lose to tamura? This is my 2nd most certain pick among fights below the main card after fukuda over cantwell. Does anyone disagree?

I'm with PunisherIND on this one. After watching Zhang's fights, I would never put him as a certain pick anymore. He's got a strong guillotine, but his ground control is piss poor. His cardio has looked awful too.

**Vaughany** · 02-21-12, 12:57 PM

yeep will be playin Tamura if Zhang is massive overvalued

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 12:58 PM

How is bart's wrestling (Defensive)? What's his clinch game like?
I know he has a pretty solid attacking guard...but I doubt he can catch hioki from the bottom. Is he proficient at getting up? Sweeping?

**Hannibal** · 02-21-12, 01:02 PM

Zhang is so bad...he is a perfect fade like daniel roberts. Came out with a few quick subs against scrubs and then is overvalued consistently because of that. Just like roberts, zhang gasses hard. If I knew that tamura was durable I'd take him. But I know nothing hah

**Vitooch** · 02-21-12, 01:05 PM

I dont think Bart will be able to submit or sweep from the bottom. Hioki should be able to drag Bart to the ground enough, stealing rounds late . I dont think he can keep winning fights like this though. Hioki will need to be more agressive with submissioms from the top if he expecta to continue moving up the FW ladder

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-21-12, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

How is bart's wrestling (Defensive)? What's his clinch game like?
I know he has a pretty solid attacking guard...but I doubt he can catch hioki from the bottom. Is he proficient at getting up? Sweeping?

Lamas consistently took down Bart. I think Barts wrestlign will be much improved. He had to prepare for the wrestling of Griffin and the obvious gameplan of Hioki. I think at +150 there is a shot of him doing this and catching Hioki standing.

**Vaughany** · 02-21-12, 01:55 PM

Without getting in to the whole excuses thing, Palaszewski was a borderline alcoholic up until the Micklewright fight. He didnt take training seriously at all, regularly turning up hungover or sometimes even drunk during camp! He also stepped in on 10 days notice against Njokuani. Now tht he's a bigger 145er and in good condition I think Hioki is going to have trouble getting it to the ground. Hioki tends to rely on takedowns from the clinch with body locks and trips - his doubles and singles (which Bart is more susceptible to being taken down from) aren't very good, which means he needs to get inside, avoid Bart's striking, and grab a hold of Bart and drag him to the ground. Not sure if he's going to be strong enough to do tht or at least do it consistently.

**fosho14** · 02-21-12, 02:05 PM

Although I'm aware that zhang is not elite, I don't think very highly of tamura. I was just trying to determine my 2 most certain picks below the main card and its surprisingly quite hard. After fukuda, I have absolutely no idea they all look like they could easily go either way! I'm staying away from the gomi/mitsuoka unless there are some fantastic dog odds because anyone who thinks they know how thats gonna play out is out of their mind. Gomi is inconsistent as hell, and mitsuoka is inconsistent plus fought much worse competition :S
The cariaso bout could also go either way, maybe cariaso would be a good dog pick as I expect him to have good odds.
Yamamoto MUST CATCH A BREAK. Yamamoto should take this against vaughn lee, maybe that is the most certain pick below the main card?

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-21-12, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Without getting in to the whole excuses thing, Palaszewski was a borderline alcoholic up until the Micklewright fight. He didnt take training seriously at all, regularly turning up hungover or sometimes even drunk during camp! He also stepped in on 10 days notice against Njokuani. Now tht he's a bigger 145er and in good condition I think Hioki is going to have trouble getting it to the ground. Hioki tends to rely on takedowns from the clinch with body locks and trips - his doubles and singles (which Bart is more susceptible to being taken down from) aren't very good, which means he needs to get inside, avoid Bart's striking, and grab a hold of Bart and drag him to the ground. Not sure if he's going to be strong enough to do tht or at least do it consistently.

Very happy to see you on board with my breakdown. Yours is definetely more eloquently put and I agree completely with the bold however did not iterate it in my breakdown.

Bart by Decision if its tasty enough Im assuming Mr. V?

**Vaughany** · 02-21-12, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Very happy to see you on board with my breakdown. Yours is definetely more eloquently put and I agree completely with the bold however did not iterate it in my breakdown.

Bart by Decision if its tasty enough Im assuming Mr. V?

Most probably. Or Bart straight up and fight goes distance or Starts Round 2 in a couple parlays.

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 02:45 PM

error on 5dimes, okami for +240

**Vitooch** · 02-21-12, 02:47 PM

I would let 5dimes know. They may give you some sort of reward.

**illmatick** · 02-21-12, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

Zhang is so bad...he is a perfect fade like daniel roberts. Came out with a few quick subs against scrubs and then is overvalued consistently because of that. Just like roberts, zhang gasses hard. If I knew that tamura was durable I'd take him. But I know nothing hah

Pretty much.

Gustavo Falciroli has a pretty decent guard and Tamura survived and fought off a few of his submissions for three rounds. I'd definitely consider playing him as a dog here.

If any of you guys want to be a guest caller for sbr's preview show, let me know...send me a pm.

**Vaughany** · 02-21-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by gabe

error on 5dimes, okami for +240

Always going to be voided

**fosho14** · 02-21-12, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

Zhang is so bad...he is a perfect fade like daniel roberts. Came out with a few quick subs against scrubs and then is overvalued consistently because of that. Just like roberts, zhang gasses hard. If I knew that tamura was durable I'd take him. But I know nothing hah

Tamura has no business being in the ufc. He's awfull. Sometimes your dealing with 2 bad fighters and you must choose the less bad one. I liken it to the chris cope/matt brown scenario. They are both terrible fighters but cope was literally not even a ufc level fighter so I played brown large. I don't think tamura is a ufc level fighter, but maybe I'll leave this one alone since I seem to be in the minority.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-21-12, 04:23 PM

Oddessa released the rest of the card
All crazy dogs are being bought.

**Vitooch** · 02-21-12, 04:32 PM

Has anyone alerted a sportsbook of an error and been rewarded in some way for it?

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 04:35 PM

Yeah, I've gotten $25 a couple times for doing it, can't remember what site.

**Educ8d Degener8** · 02-21-12, 04:39 PM

I'm gonna square up on Hioki if you mf'rs keep betting Bartimus...

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

I'm gonna square up on Hioki if you mf'rs keep betting Bartimus...

Shhhhh, let em keep driving that line.

**gabe** · 02-21-12, 05:51 PM

Damn, Nun, you're on Hioki?

I think only way he wins is if he steals a decis. (try saying "decis" instad of decision, sounds funny)

**NunyaBidness** · 02-21-12, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Damn, Nun, you're on Hioki?

I think only way he wins is if he steals a decis. (try saying "decis" instad of decision, sounds funny)

I haven't bet either side yet. I like Hioki at current prices, and will like him more at close I'm sure.