UFC 144: Japan

**fosho14** · 02-18-12, 03:00 PM

Was talking about this in another thread, but I guess I'll bring it up again here. "easy decision win" ??

So akiyama's 3rd dan judoka base and 100% TDD statistics that are currently on ufc.com right now don't worry you at all?

**v1y** · 02-18-12, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

100% TDD statistics that are currently on ufc.com right now don't worry you at all?

Thank you for confirming that the majority of people who cite statistics in MMA are morons.

Of course Akiyama has 100% TDD, he hasn't had to ******* defend any takedowns.

**Hannibal** · 02-18-12, 03:25 PM

line for rampage has been getting better..
are people betting bader because they think rampage will be in poor shape?

**Vaughany** · 02-18-12, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

line for rampage has been getting better..
are people betting bader because they think rampage will be in poor shape?

Must be. And people continue to think that wrestlers like Bader can exploit him. His takedown defence is always overlooked. I cant knock people for playing Bader, but I dont understand why anybody would play him straight up. Only way I see him winning inside the distance is if Rampage breaks his hand on Bader's face and has to quit!

**Vaughany** · 02-18-12, 03:39 PM

Fosho has really got a hard-on for this Sexyama 100% takedown defence stat!

**The HOFF** · 02-18-12, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Fosho has really got a hard-on for this Sexyama 100% takedown defence stat!

I'd be worried about that soft spot on the back of his head. I mean Vitor really exposed him there.

**Vitooch** · 02-18-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by fosho14

Was talking about this in another thread, but I guess I'll bring it up again here. "easy decision win" ??

So akiyama's 3rd dan judoka base and 100% TDD statistics that are currently on ufc.com right now don't worry you at all?

The fighters he has faced have all chosen to strike with him.

Shields has taken down Dan Henderson, a former Olympic wrestler.

**fosho14** · 02-19-12, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Fosho has really got a hard-on for this Sexyama 100% takedown defence stat!

lol, I just try my best to uncover the greatest threats to a given pick to increase the certainty of my selections. Ok ya the 100% tdd stat is misleading you've effectively proven your point there. To be fair it is kind of hard to ignore the fact that he's a 3rd dan judo black belt though. Him and Okami have an EXCELLENT base and excellent tdd, and I know that Akiyama's opponents have been stylistically favorable but every dog has its day. How do you know that Akiyama won't be able to stuff a lot of shields takedowns? Haven't we learned that mma math is not something to confidently rely on, and just saying that because he took henderson down, he will take akiyama down is not always a fair assumption. For all you know he could be way better than kampman at tdd and kampmann was able to stuff a lot, and pepper shields on the feet.

I'm not saying by any stretch to bet on akiyama, just saying that unlike the rampage and okami fights this one may be best left alone. Unless you can convince me otherwise

what you can't deny is that there is ALOT of uncertainty in this fight, and it's not wise to wager large on high uncertainty. I originally was going to play simpson against markes, and was actually very confident that simpson was going to win. But then a few ppl on this board ended up convincing me that it was a lot closer than I thought, and although I still thought simpson had the edge, I wasn't ready to gamble on it like roulette, just like I don't want to gamble on shields/akiyama that shields holds him down for 3 whole rounds, because if he only does it for 1/3, than akiyama still wins. So far my 2 large plays are rampage and okami...

**gabe** · 02-19-12, 09:23 PM

shields has a better chance of beating sexiyama than okami does boetsch, IMO.

**eligibletackle** · 02-19-12, 09:34 PM

Sexyama has shown me nothing that he's above being victim to wearing out and drowning in Shield late round water. We'll see what the line is, but if he fades so quickly at 185, I can't touch him at 170. The TDD of an all star judoka means nothing when he tires so easily and is going against a grappler of shields' caliber.

Big on Rampage. Bader's TDs are those that Rampage should handle, he'll have to stay in the pocket and throw to set it up, or use the cage and brute strength. I think Rampage can handle what Bader brings.

**GunShard** · 02-20-12, 01:12 AM

Home field advantage helps the Brazilian fighters in two events, let's see how many Japanese fighters gets the edge.

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 03:46 AM

Originally posted by eligibletackle

Sexyama has shown me nothing that he's above being victim to wearing out and drowning in Shield late round water. We'll see what the line is, but if he fades so quickly at 185, I can't touch him at 170. The TDD of an all star judoka means nothing when he tires so easily and is going against a grappler of shields' caliber. Big on Rampage. Bader's TDs are those that Rampage should handle, he'll have to stay in the pocket and throw to set it up, or use the cage and brute strength. I think Rampage can handle what Bader brings.

this dude is smaht

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 03:56 AM

Originally posted by fosho14

lol, I just try my best to uncover the greatest threats to a given pick to increase the certainty of my selections. Ok ya the 100% tdd stat is misleading you've effectively proven your point there. To be fair it is kind of hard to ignore the fact that he's a 3rd dan judo black belt though. Him and Okami have an EXCELLENT base and excellent tdd, and I know that Akiyama's opponents have been stylistically favorable but every dog has its day. How do you know that Akiyama won't be able to stuff a lot of shields takedowns? Haven't we learned that mma math is not something to confidently rely on, and just saying that because he took henderson down, he will take akiyama down is not always a fair assumption. For all you know he could be way better than kampman at tdd and kampmann was able to stuff a lot, and pepper shields on the feet.

I'm not saying by any stretch to bet on akiyama, just saying that unlike the rampage and okami fights this one may be best left alone. Unless you can convince me otherwise

what you can't deny is that there is ALOT of uncertainty in this fight, and it's not wise to wager large on high uncertainty. I originally was going to play simpson against markes, and was actually very confident that simpson was going to win. But then a few ppl on this board ended up convincing me that it was a lot closer than I thought, and although I still thought simpson had the edge, I wasn't ready to gamble on it like roulette, just like I don't want to gamble on shields/akiyama that shields holds him down for 3 whole rounds, because if he only does it for 1/3, than akiyama still wins. So far my 2 large plays are rampage and okami...

You are quite right, we don't know how good Akiyama's defence is and being a high level judoka is going to certainly help. I've never been a big fan of Shields and wouldnt be surprised if Akiyama caught him. Just saying that the 100% takedown defence stat is pretty much irrelevant. So then you are relying on Akiyama's high level judo and solid balance as the equaliser to Shields' high level grappling. Just bare in mind that somebody like Omigawa also has great judo yet was taken down pretty easily by Wiman and Chad Mendes.

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 03:56 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

Home field advantage helps the Brazilian fighters in two events, let's see how many Japanese fighters gets the edge.

Completely different atmosphere tho

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-20-12, 11:52 AM

When does Hunt have value.
Nothing pisses me off more (okay other than wet socks) than losing money to a LNP.

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

When does Hunt have value.
Nothing pisses me off more (okay other than wet socks) than losing money to a LNP.

When you can get him by TKO/KO! Dont see him winning any other way. Kongo wont gas out after 3 minutes like Rothwell did. If the fight makes it to the third Id bet my right nut that Hunt will be the one more gassed out

**omalley21** · 02-20-12, 12:27 PM

Good point about the atmosphere. I didn't even think of that. The japanese watch in silence. No energy to feed off. I do expect close decision to go their way though.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-20-12, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

When you can get him by TKO/KO! Dont see him winning any other way. Kongo wont gas out after 3 minutes like Rothwell did. If the fight makes it to the third Id bet my right nut that Hunt will be the one more gassed out

Thats what I figured. Might do Kongo by decision/hunt by KO hedge but with my luck Kongo locks in a flying triangle

**Rubber Guard** · 02-20-12, 12:36 PM

Also, the Brazilians are finishers and finished many of there fights in Brazil. Tons of finishes. The Japanese fighters aren't the same kind of finishers. I don't think it is that much of a factor. Asian fighters haven't looked good in the UFC. It isn't like the rules are changing or anything.

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-20-12, 12:48 PM

I played Kongo at -400 against Buentello, thats why I think there is value here for the record

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-20-12, 01:16 PM

"Maybe losing each round by a hair," he said. "Frankie does a great job in his fights of doing just enough, or not just enough – I don't mean it to sound like that – but he does really good work in winning that round. He wins one round and then he does just enough the next time to win that round, and then the next round. So by the end of the fight, you're down five rounds to none. You're not really too beat up or too damaged, but you lost all five rounds to Frankie Edgar."

Bendo

**Rubber Guard** · 02-20-12, 01:27 PM

I really don't care for Bendo. Frankie is a small 155...what do you want KOs left and right? He is just coming off a KO in a title fight of an undefeated fighter. Frankie stays active all fight long. If you don't want to get out-boxed all night then go try and take him down and control him.....good luck.

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

You are quite right, we don't know how good Akiyama's defence is and being a high level judoka is going to certainly help. I've never been a big fan of Shields and wouldnt be surprised if Akiyama caught him. Just saying that the 100% takedown defence stat is pretty much irrelevant. So then you are relying on Akiyama's high level judo and solid balance as the equaliser to Shields' high level grappling. Just bare in mind that somebody like Omigawa also has great judo yet was taken down pretty easily by Wiman and Chad Mendes.

Parisyan is ranked 2nd best judoka in the country, I think, and he was taken down plenty.

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

When does Hunt have value.
Nothing pisses me off more (okay other than wet socks) than losing money to a LNP.

Me, too, but funny enough, nothing is as comforting as winning money via LNP.

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

I really don't care for Bendo. Frankie is a small 155...what do you want KOs left and right? He is just coming off a KO in a title fight of an undefeated fighter. Frankie stays active all fight long. If you don't want to get out-boxed all night then go try and take him down and control him.....good luck.

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 02:02 PM

You back on tht meth again Gabriel?!

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 02:08 PM

why u gotta hate?

if you don't find that funny, you're lame.

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 02:12 PM

Serious question...worried for ya buddy

**Beelzebubzy** · 02-20-12, 02:46 PM

Fosho, what is Barboza's TDD %.

I am creating a formula
IF TDD % > Chandler Blades win Percentage, then bet til -400, If not, Call Blades for life advice

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 04:15 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Serious question...worried for ya buddy

How is it a serious question? Have we ever talked about me doing meth? I've never done anything besides smoke weed and drink.

Assuming I'm on meth when I'm clearly just having fun is retarded.

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 04:18 PM

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 04:19 PM

Exactly. Not a serious question, you're just a hater.

**fosho14** · 02-20-12, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Fosho, what is Barboza's TDD %.

I am creating a formula
IF TDD % > Chandler Blades win Percentage, then bet til -400, If not, Call Blades for life advice

What? Sorry for asking legitimate questions. I don't have time for bs like this, go home child.

Everyone else, thanks for the insight I appreciate it. Unlike some on here, I'm not trying to argue or fight, just trying to learn and get a better feel for my picks, and grow my bankroll! I'll be playing shields moderate.

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Exactly. Not a serious question, you're just a hater.

**gabe** · 02-20-12, 04:33 PM

Hater.

**Vaughany** · 02-20-12, 04:49 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHhIlBpKqIQ