Ladle's MMA Betting

[Vaughany]

Very sly.

For 131, I have money on Mr. dos Santos. Do you think I should hedge with Carwin by KO at +220 on Paddy now, or wait for the KO of the night prop? I'm also wondering if the 5dimes opener will be better.

I took Carwin by KO at +250 because I thought 5dimes might not be as good as that but more like the current line on paddy. But was only small cos of the limits. I'll be taking Dos Santos and hedging it with Carwin KO of the NIght closer to fight time, or even Dos Santos KO of the Night hedged with Carwin KO of the Night for sure nearer fight time. Only concern is that Carwin might finish Dos Santos with ground and pound rather than a one punch KO or something so might not be KO of the Night worthy, so may be safer just taking Carwin by KO.

[Ladle]

I took Carwin by KO at +250 because I thought 5dimes might not be as good as that but more like the current line on paddy. But was only small cos of the limits. I'll be taking Dos Santos and hedging it with Carwin KO of the NIght closer to fight time, or even Dos Santos KO of the Night hedged with Carwin KO of the Night for sure nearer fight time. Only concern is that Carwin might finish Dos Santos with ground and pound rather than a one punch KO or something so might not be KO of the Night worthy, so may be safer just taking Carwin by KO.

Agreed on the ground and pound, though I think they might give him the award anyway (unless there's something spectacular elsewhere on the card). Help legitimize him as the new contender for the title and all that.

I like the double KO of the night hedge. Could be very profitable if the odds are decent.

[Vaughany]

ha check out the Anderson Silva/Okami props on paddy. They've got Anderson by KO at 14/1 and Okami by Ko at 11/10!!! Max bet for me is like 1.59 tho! Got Shogun by Ko at 17/2 as well!

[Ladle]

ha check out the Anderson Silva/Okami props on paddy. They've got Anderson by KO at 14/1 and Okami by Ko at 11/10!!! Max bet for me is like 1.59 tho! Got Shogun by Ko at 17/2 as well!

Hah, idiots! Is it really that hard to get it right first time round? Unfortunately they've since taken the Silva/Okami line down and changed the Shogun one. Reckon they'll cancel your bets?

[Vaughany]

Hah, idiots! Is it really that hard to get it right first time round? Unfortunately they've since taken the Silva/Okami line down and changed the Shogun one. Reckon they'll cancel your bets?

They havn't in past but probably will!

[NickDiaz209]

Carwin's gonna get wrecked...or should I say Canwin?

[Ladle]

Carwin's gonna get wrecked...or should I say Canwin?

So Carwin CAN win? Think more carefully about your word play, Mr. Diaz.

[bjpenn85]

haha jesus

[Ladle]

UFC 130 Plays

Here's my first installment of bets for tomorrow night. I still have a few more plays to post, but I'm knackered right now so I'll update tomorrow.

4 units on Jorge Santiago at +120 to win 4.8 units

Hedged with...

0.46 units on Brian Stann wins KO of the Night at +850 to win 4 units

An interesting fight where both guys have very obvious paths to victory. Many people are singing Stann's praises after knocking out a plodding Leben, but I don't think Santiago deserves to be a +120 underdog here. Stann's power and Santiago's flimsy chin might be a good recipe for a knockout, but what if Santiago puts Stann on his back before taking a flush punch? Though Stann has since improved, are people forgetting that his defensive grappling looked woefully deficient against Kristof Soszynski a little over two years ago? Couple that with the fact that Santiago has positionally dominated and submitted fighters who are significantly better grapplers than Stann, and I think it's reasonable to assume that the fight probably won't last long if it hits the ground.

Also, in spite of his awful chin, Santiago is still a threat standing up. His technique is continutally improving, he's got an underrated punch, and he's turned in some nasty knockouts over the years. He can do a lot more damage than people realise, and Stann's chin isn't anything to write home about. I wouldn't bat an eye at Santiago finishing the fight on the feet tomorrow.

With that said, Santiago's inability to take punishment will always give me pause, hence the bet on Stann winning KO of the Night to cover myself. There's no doubt in my mind that Santiago is the superior mixed martial artist in this fight, but his chin will always remain an unfortunate part of an otherwise extremely skilled middleweight. Stann can definitely exploit that weakness, and if he brings out the heavy artillery and connects with a power shot akin to the ones he blasted Leben with, Santiago is definitely going down the tubes.

0.35 units on Torres/Johnson wins Fight of the Night at +700 to win 2.45 units

Great odds on offer for what is, in my opinion, the front-runner for Fight of the Night. Excellent potential for a lot of up and down action and the pace should be pretty frenetic regardless of where the fight ends up.

1.4 units on Miguel Torres by submission at +320 to win 4.48 units

Hedged with...

0.5 units on Demetrious Johnson by decision at +260 to win 1.4 units

I think these are the two most likely outcomes in this fight. Gameplan-wise, I'm pretty confident that Torres is going to try to replicate what he did to Banuelos and Valencia: stay on the outside and don't get too far away from the jab; sprawl on any takedown attempts and then try to secure back mount for the choke. Of course, the big question here is whether or not Torres can stuff Johnson's shots. Personally, I'm dubious of whether he's quick enough to do so and wouldn't be surprised to see Torres on his back a lot. From there, it's a matter of how Torres' bottom game matches up with Johnson's top game. Can Torres tap him from guard? It's a definite possibility, as Johnson's ground control looked somewhat flimsy against Yamamoto. Of course, it's also plausible that Johnson stifles the submission attempts for the majority of the fight and gets rewarded by the judges for maintaining top control. Generous odds were offered for both outcomes, so I think it's a decent low-stake hedge.

6.5 units on a 3 Team Parlay of McDonald/Barao/Jackson at +140 to win 9.10 units

Three very solid, deserving favourites thrown together in a parlay at better than even money. First of all, two excellent prospects in Barao and McDonald, and both of them are in match-ups which are stylistically advantageous to them.

I think McDonald can beat Cariaso however he wants to. Standing up, while Cariaso has power in his hands and a decent kicking game, McDonald still has the edge. He's quicker, more elusive, and the straight right is his money punch (which is probably going to give a southpaw like Cariaso a lot of problems). If the fight does hit the ground, McDonald will probably get the tap with deliberate speed.

As for Barao, the strongest aspect of his game is his submission defense, which doesn't bode well for Escovedo. Barao is also the markedly better boxer in this fight, owed to the fact that boxing trainer Netinho Pegado is his father. Couple that with his decent Brazilian wrestling and awesome positional work on the ground, and I'd say this is a very safe match-up for the young Brazilian.

Finally, I think pretty much any iteration of Rampage we've ever seen in the UFC will beat Hamill tomorrow. He's the vastly superior boxer and has always had excellent, underrated takedown defense. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few takedowns of his own, too.

Also, I'm trying to use arbs more consistently from now on. This one has been in the making since the odds first came out on Paddy (started at +220 on there):

10 units on Nelson/Mir goes the distance at +220 to win 22 units
15 units on Nelson/Mir goes the distance at +200 to win 31 units
14 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -150 to win 9.33 units
14 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -155 to win 8.64 units
18 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -162 to win 11.11 units

7 units profit if the fight goes the distance; 4.08 units if the fight doesn't go the distance.

That's it for now. Will post the rest of my plays tomorrow (you can probably guess most of them if you follow my posts, but there's a few more parlays thrown in there too). Cheers!

[Jordan23]

Good luck with your picks tomorrow!

[NunyaBidness]

UFC 130 Plays

1.4 units on Miguel Torres by submission at +320 to win 4.48 units

Hedged with...

0.5 units on Demetrious Johnson by decision at +260 to win 1.4 units

Good luck. If anyone is thinking of tailing, Torres inside the distance at +420 at Bodog is a better option. Johnson by decision at +260 is a pretty sick find though.

[Ladle]

Good luck. If anyone is thinking of tailing, Torres inside the distance at +420 at Bodog is a better option. Johnson by decision at +260 is a pretty sick find though.

Thanks man. I think I placed my bet on Torres a little early. Seems to have been a lot of love for D.J. in the past three or so days.

Good luck with your picks tomorrow!

You too mate.

[Ladle]

UFC 130 Plays

Well, here are the rest of 'em.

0.5 units on Michael McDonald wins by submission at +600 to win 3 units

McDonald is a whiz on the ground and Cariaso's submission defense looked pretty porous against Barao. I think Mayday can force the tap pretty quickly if he chooses to bring the fight to the ground, so at +600, it was a must-play.

0.24 units on Nelson wins by decision at +450 to win 1.08 units

Even though I favour Mir to win if it goes all three, I like these odds. I think the overhand right could give Mir some trouble, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Nelson might be able to stick Mir on his back for some of the fight. Throw in some customarily whacky judging and I think Nelson has a much better chance of winning a decision than these odds indicate.

1 unit on Boetsch at +140 to win 1.4 units

If Boetsch rag-dolled David Heath, do you think it's plausible that he could chuck Kendall Grove out of the cage?

But seriously: Grove would get dropped by anything upwards of a stiff breeze and has previously struggled with physically stronger opponents who could bully him around the cage. Based on that, I like The Barbarian at these odds.

6 units on Thiago Alves at -185 to win 3.24 units

I've spoken at length about why I think Alves will win this fight over the last month. Simply put, based on all I've seen of Story's game, I don't believe that he has the tools to win this fight. Firstly, if Koscheck couldn't take Alves down, then what suggests that Story will be able to? His offensive wrestling isn't on the same level as Koscheck's; not only is he considerably less accomplished, but if you compare the people Koscheck has been able to take down with the people Story has been able to take down, you'll see an obvious disparity in skill level. Also, can you imagine Koscheck getting out-wrestled by John Hathaway for the best part of 15 minutes? Didn't think so. Sure, Story has power, but it'll take more than brute strength to stifle Alves, as the Alves/Howard fight proved.

Many are clinging to the idea that Story is going overwhelm Alves with his wrestling, but I haven't seen any examples of Story's offensive wrestling which would suggest that this is the case. His defensive wrestling looked very good against Hendricks, but his defensive wrestling isn't what's pertinent in a fight with Alves. We should be analysing his offensive wrestling, and considering he only took Johny Hendricks down one time for about five seconds, that fight was hardly a good indicator of an effective offensive wrestler. Several people have even tried equating Story's wrestling ability to Jon Fitch's, but this is another unsubstantiated claim. Yes, they're both tenacious, but since when does being dogged and determined translate into being a truly effective offensive wrestler? One look at Diego Sanchez will tell you that it doesn't. Technical acuity is what gets results, and that's what sets Jon Fitch apart from the rest of the pack.

My prediction for this fight is Story eating a lot of leg kicks as he attempts to charge forward. Alves can land clean counter combinations on Story, too, who mostly throws big, looping punches one or two at a time. I think Story is tough enough to make it to the scorecards, but I wouldn't be surprised at a finish either.

4 units on Travis Browne at -110 to win 3.64 units

Yes, I'm also hopping aboard the Travis Browne bandwagon. Although Browne isn't a great defensive striker, I still give him a sizable advantage on the feet based on the fact that he hits hard and has a decent chin. While Struve has shown an excellent ability to recover after taking a beating, he's still been dropped on numerous occasions (TKO'd decisively twice), and I think Browne has the power to replicate those finishes. As well as that, Browne is physically stronger and can outwrestle Struve. He can hustle Struve up against the cage, take him down - possibly get dominant position - and pound away at him, just as Christian Morecraft and Denis Stojnic did.

Finally, an arb and two more parlays:

10 units on Rampage/Hamill goes the distance at +110 to win 11 units

8.3 units on Rampage/Hamill doesn't go the distance at +120 to win 10 units

1.4 units on a 5 team parlay of Jackson/Alves/Macdonald/Barao/Torres at +610 to win 8.54 units (7.14 units profit)

1.4 units on a 5 team parlay of Jackson/Alves/Macdonald/Barao/Johnson at +580 to win 8.12 units (6.72 units profit)

These both look a bit ambitious, but I don't think they are. Jackson, Alves, McDonald and Barao are all very deserving favourites. Obviously this is MMA, and obviously anything can happen, but I'd be surprised if any of them let me down tonight. It's a risk worth taking in my opinion.

4 units on Jorge Santiago at +120 to win 4.8 units

Hedged with...

0.46 units on Brian Stann wins KO of the Night at +850 to win 4 units

An interesting fight where both guys have very obvious paths to victory. Many people are singing Stann's praises after knocking out a plodding Leben, but I don't think Santiago deserves to be a +120 underdog here. Stann's power and Santiago's flimsy chin might be a good recipe for a knockout, but what if Santiago puts Stann on his back before taking a flush punch? Though Stann has since improved, are people forgetting that his defensive grappling looked woefully deficient against Kristof Soszynski a little over two years ago? Couple that with the fact that Santiago has positionally dominated and submitted fighters who are significantly better grapplers than Stann, and I think it's reasonable to assume that the fight probably won't last long if it hits the ground.

Also, in spite of his awful chin, Santiago is still a threat standing up. His technique is continutally improving, he's got an underrated punch, and he's turned in some nasty knockouts over the years. He can do a lot more damage than people realise, and Stann's chin isn't anything to write home about. I wouldn't bat an eye at Santiago finishing the fight on the feet tomorrow.

With that said, Santiago's inability to take punishment will always give me pause, hence the bet on Stann winning KO of the Night to cover myself. There's no doubt in my mind that Santiago is the superior mixed martial artist in this fight, but his chin will always remain an unfortunate part of an otherwise extremely skilled middleweight. Stann can definitely exploit that weakness, and if he brings out the heavy artillery and connects with a power shot akin to the ones he blasted Leben with, Santiago is definitely going down the tubes.

0.35 units on Torres/Johnson wins Fight of the Night at +700 to win 2.45 units

Great odds on offer for what is, in my opinion, the front-runner for Fight of the Night. Excellent potential for a lot of up and down action and the pace should be pretty frenetic regardless of where the fight ends up.

1.4 units on Miguel Torres by submission at +320 to win 4.48 units

Hedged with...

0.5 units on Demetrious Johnson by decision at +260 to win 1.4 units

I think these are the two most likely outcomes in this fight. Gameplan-wise, I'm pretty confident that Torres is going to try to replicate what he did to Banuelos and Valencia: stay on the outside and don't get too far away from the jab; sprawl on any takedown attempts and then try to secure back mount for the choke. Of course, the big question here is whether or not Torres can stuff Johnson's shots. Personally, I'm dubious of whether he's quick enough to do so and wouldn't be surprised to see Torres on his back a lot. From there, it's a matter of how Torres' bottom game matches up with Johnson's top game. Can Torres tap him from guard? It's a definite possibility, as Johnson's ground control looked somewhat flimsy against Yamamoto. Of course, it's also plausible that Johnson stifles the submission attempts for the majority of the fight and gets rewarded by the judges for maintaining top control. Generous odds were offered for both outcomes, so I think it's a decent low-stake hedge.

6.5 units on a 3 Team Parlay of McDonald/Barao/Jackson at +140 to win 9.10 units

Three very solid, deserving favourites thrown together in a parlay at better than even money. First of all, two excellent prospects in Barao and McDonald, and both of them are in match-ups which are stylistically advantageous to them.

I think McDonald can beat Cariaso however he wants to. Standing up, while Cariaso has power in his hands and a decent kicking game, McDonald still has the edge. He's quicker, more elusive, and the straight right is his money punch (which is probably going to give a southpaw like Cariaso a lot of problems). If the fight does hit the ground, McDonald will probably get the tap with deliberate speed.

As for Barao, the strongest aspect of his game is his submission defense, which doesn't bode well for Escovedo. Barao is also the markedly better boxer in this fight, owed to the fact that boxing trainer Netinho Pegado is his father. Couple that with his decent Brazilian wrestling and awesome positional work on the ground, and I'd say this is a very safe match-up for the young Brazilian.

Finally, I think pretty much any iteration of Rampage we've ever seen in the UFC will beat Hamill tomorrow. He's the vastly superior boxer and has always had excellent, underrated takedown defense. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few takedowns of his own, too.

Also, I'm trying to use arbs more consistently from now on. This one has been in the making since the odds first came out on Paddy (started at +220 on there):

10 units on Nelson/Mir goes the distance at +220 to win 22 units
15 units on Nelson/Mir goes the distance at +200 to win 31 units
14 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -150 to win 9.33 units
14 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -155 to win 8.64 units
18 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -162 to win 11.11 units

7 units profit if the fight goes the distance; 4.08 units if the fight doesn't go the distance.

And, that's it. Good luck to all of (especially if you picked similarly to me ). However it turns out, hopefully we get an exciting night of fights.

EDIT:

One last bet brought to my attention by Eccocide.

0.9 units on Mir by decision at +400 to win 3.6 units

[Playmaker]

GL tonight...esp with Alves

[sideloaded]

nice call on alves.

[Ladle]

nice call on alves.

Hah, get outta here you stupid troll! Yes, I underrated Story, but there wasn't any evidence to suggest that his chin was so good, or that his pressure game would be so effective against someone who had proven himself against several wrestlers. Hell, Story was rocked by Brian Foster, yet his chin looked absolutely unbelievable tonight.

Also, you picked Daniel Roberts to submit Claude Patrick with a guillotine in the first round last month! So don't come on here and criticise my picks. At least I can justify my bets. Moronic troll.

[Ladle]

Need to wait and see what FOTN was, but that looks like somewhere in the region of 11 units profit tonight. You like that, hater trolls?

[Vaughany]

Need to wait and see what FOTN was, but that looks like somewhere in the region of 11 units profit tonight. You like that, hater trolls?

Unfortunately Stann/Santiago somehow got FOTN, I guess because the UFC feel they had to give Stann something due to the Memorial Day wknd and because he would of got KOTN if not for Browne

Ah well, great night for both of us anyway!

[The HOFF]

I don't understand the fight of the night winner. Santiago had nothing going. Usually they give it to a fight that is competitive both ways. Johnson/Torres should have taken it. I guess Vaughany is right that they had to give Stann something.

[Ladle]

Unfortunately Stann/Santiago somehow got FOTN, I guess because the UFC feel they had to give Stann something due to the Memorial Day wknd and because he would of got KOTN if not for Browne

Ah well, great night for both of us anyway!

Ridiculous decision. Should have definitely gone to Torres/Johnson or Alves/Story.

And indeed! Excellent work as always hermano.

I don't understand the fight of the night winner. Santiago had nothing going. Usually they give it to a fight that is competitive both ways. Johnson/Torres should have taken it. I guess Vaughany is right that they had to give Stann something.

Yeah, distinct lack of offense from Santiago. Pretty dumb.

[CaDDyy]

torres won?

[Vaughany]

I don't understand the fight of the night winner. Santiago had nothing going. Usually they give it to a fight that is competitive both ways. Johnson/Torres should have taken it. I guess Vaughany is right that they had to give Stann something.

Yeah it was all Stann, in theory I think a FOTN should be a fight that is pretty equal and has back-and-forth action (as was the case in the MightyMouse/Torres and Story/Alves fights). They've done this in the past though, where two guys have got good KO's and rather then just give two KO of the Night awards they give one fighter the KOTN and other FOTN even though the fight he was in lasted a couple of minutes and was one-sided. Fortunately I made 5 units from Tibau gettin SOTN.

[Vaughany]

torres won?

Nope! UNless ur sayin Torres should of won?!

[Vaughany]

And anyway, Lil Heathen KOTN is lookin good for next wknd!

[Ladle]

UFC 130 Plays

Amount Staked: 117.05 units
Amount Returned: 131.64 units
Profit: +14.59 units

Good night. Would have been a +24.00 unit profit if Alves had won, but oh well!

0.5 units on Michael McDonald wins by submission at +600 to win 3 units

McDonald is a whiz on the ground and Cariaso's submission defense looked pretty porous against Barao. I think Mayday can force the tap pretty quickly if he chooses to bring the fight to the ground, so at +600, it was a must-play.

0.24 units on Nelson wins by decision at +450 to win 1.08 units

Even though I favour Mir to win if it goes all three, I like these odds. I think the overhand right could give Mir some trouble, and I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Nelson might be able to stick Mir on his back for some of the fight. Throw in some customarily whacky judging and I think Nelson has a much better chance of winning a decision than these odds indicate.

1 unit on Boetsch at +140 to win 1.4 units

If Boetsch rag-dolled David Heath, do you think it's plausible that he could chuck Kendall Grove out of the cage?

But seriously: Grove would get dropped by anything upwards of a stiff breeze and has previously struggled with physically stronger opponents who could bully him around the cage. Based on that, I like The Barbarian at these odds.

6 units on Thiago Alves at -185 to win 3.24 units

I've spoken at length about why I think Alves will win this fight over the last month. Simply put, based on all I've seen of Story's game, I don't believe that he has the tools to win this fight. Firstly, if Koscheck couldn't take Alves down, then what suggests that Story will be able to? His offensive wrestling isn't on the same level as Koscheck's; not only is he considerably less accomplished, but if you compare the people Koscheck has been able to take down with the people Story has been able to take down, you'll see an obvious disparity in skill level. Also, can you imagine Koscheck getting out-wrestled by John Hathaway for the best part of 15 minutes? Didn't think so. Sure, Story has power, but it'll take more than brute strength to stifle Alves, as the Alves/Howard fight proved.

Many are clinging to the idea that Story is going overwhelm Alves with his wrestling, but I haven't seen any examples of Story's offensive wrestling which would suggest that this is the case. His defensive wrestling looked very good against Hendricks, but his defensive wrestling isn't what's pertinent in a fight with Alves. We should be analysing his offensive wrestling, and considering he only took Johny Hendricks down one time for about five seconds, that fight was hardly a good indicator of an effective offensive wrestler. Several people have even tried equating Story's wrestling ability to Jon Fitch's, but this is another unsubstantiated claim. Yes, they're both tenacious, but since when does being dogged and determined translate into being a truly effective offensive wrestler? One look at Diego Sanchez will tell you that it doesn't. Technical acuity is what gets results, and that's what sets Jon Fitch apart from the rest of the pack.

My prediction for this fight is Story eating a lot of leg kicks as he attempts to charge forward. Alves can land clean counter combinations on Story, too, who mostly throws big, looping punches one or two at a time. I think Story is tough enough to make it to the scorecards, but I wouldn't be surprised at a finish either.

4 units on Travis Browne at -110 to win 3.64 units

Yes, I'm also hopping aboard the Travis Browne bandwagon. Although Browne isn't a great defensive striker, I still give him a sizable advantage on the feet based on the fact that he hits hard and has a decent chin. While Struve has shown an excellent ability to recover after taking a beating, he's still been dropped on numerous occasions (TKO'd decisively twice), and I think Browne has the power to replicate those finishes. As well as that, Browne is physically stronger and can outwrestle Struve. He can hustle Struve up against the cage, take him down - possibly get dominant position - and pound away at him, just as Christian Morecraft and Denis Stojnic did.

Finally, an arb and two more parlays:

10 units on Rampage/Hamill goes the distance at +110 to win 11 units (2.7 units profit)

8.3 units on Rampage/Hamill doesn't go the distance at +120 to win 10 units

1.4 units on a 5 team parlay of Jackson/Alves/Macdonald/Barao/Torres at +610 to win 8.54 units (7.14 units profit)

1.4 units on a 5 team parlay of Jackson/Alves/Macdonald/Barao/Johnson at +580 to win 8.12 units (6.72 units profit)

These both look a bit ambitious, but I don't think they are. Jackson, Alves, McDonald and Barao are all very deserving favourites. Obviously this is MMA, and obviously anything can happen, but I'd be surprised if any of them let me down tonight. It's a risk worth taking in my opinion.

4 units on Jorge Santiago at +120 to win 4.8 units

Hedged with...

0.46 units on Brian Stann wins KO of the Night at +850 to win 4 units

An interesting fight where both guys have very obvious paths to victory. Many people are singing Stann's praises after knocking out a plodding Leben, but I don't think Santiago deserves to be a +120 underdog here. Stann's power and Santiago's flimsy chin might be a good recipe for a knockout, but what if Santiago puts Stann on his back before taking a flush punch? Though Stann has since improved, are people forgetting that his defensive grappling looked woefully deficient against Kristof Soszynski a little over two years ago? Couple that with the fact that Santiago has positionally dominated and submitted fighters who are significantly better grapplers than Stann, and I think it's reasonable to assume that the fight probably won't last long if it hits the ground.

Also, in spite of his awful chin, Santiago is still a threat standing up. His technique is continutally improving, he's got an underrated punch, and he's turned in some nasty knockouts over the years. He can do a lot more damage than people realise, and Stann's chin isn't anything to write home about. I wouldn't bat an eye at Santiago finishing the fight on the feet tomorrow.

With that said, Santiago's inability to take punishment will always give me pause, hence the bet on Stann winning KO of the Night to cover myself. There's no doubt in my mind that Santiago is the superior mixed martial artist in this fight, but his chin will always remain an unfortunate part of an otherwise extremely skilled middleweight.

Stann can definitely exploit that weakness, and if he brings out the heavy artillery and connects with a power shot akin to the ones he blasted Leben with, Santiago is definitely going down the tubes.

0.35 units on Torres/Johnson wins Fight of the Night at +700 to win 2.45 units

Great odds on offer for what is, in my opinion, the front-runner for Fight of the Night. Excellent potential for a lot of up and down action and the pace should be pretty frenetic regardless of where the fight ends up.

1.4 units on Miguel Torres by submission at +320 to win 4.48 units

Hedged with...

0.5 units on Demetrious Johnson by decision at +260 to win 1.4 units

I think these are the two most likely outcomes in this fight. Gameplan-wise, I'm pretty confident that Torres is going to try to replicate what he did to Banuelos and Valencia: stay on the outside and don't get too far away from the jab; sprawl on any takedown attempts and then try to secure back mount for the choke. Of course, the big question here is whether or not Torres can stuff Johnson's shots. Personally, I'm dubious of whether he's quick enough to do so and wouldn't be surprised to see Torres on his back a lot. From there, it's a matter of how Torres' bottom game matches up with Johnson's top game. Can Torres tap him from guard? It's a definite possibility, as Johnson's ground control looked somewhat flimsy against Yamamoto. Of course, it's also plausible that Johnson stifles the submission attempts for the majority of the fight and gets rewarded by the judges for maintaining top control. Generous odds were offered for both outcomes, so I think it's a decent low-stake hedge.

6.5 units on a 3 Team Parlay of McDonald/Barao/Jackson at +140 to win 9.10 units

Three very solid, deserving favourites thrown together in a parlay at better than even money. First of all, two excellent prospects in Barao and McDonald, and both of them are in match-ups which are stylistically advantageous to them.

I think McDonald can beat Cariaso however he wants to. Standing up, while Cariaso has power in his hands and a decent kicking game, McDonald still has the edge. He's quicker, more elusive, and the straight right is his money punch (which is probably going to give a southpaw like Cariaso a lot of problems). If the fight does hit the ground, McDonald will probably get the tap with deliberate speed.

As for Barao, the strongest aspect of his game is his submission defense, which doesn't bode well for Escovedo. Barao is also the markedly better boxer in this fight, owed to the fact that boxing trainer Netinho Pegado is his father. Couple that with his decent Brazilian wrestling and awesome positional work on the ground, and I'd say this is a very safe match-up for the young Brazilian.

Finally, I think pretty much any iteration of Rampage we've ever seen in the UFC will beat Hamill tomorrow. He's the vastly superior boxer and has always had excellent, underrated takedown defense. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few takedowns of his own, too.

Also, I'm trying to use arbs more consistently from now on. This one has been in the making since the odds first came out on Paddy (started at +220 on there):

10 units on Nelson/Mir goes the distance at +220 to win 22 units
15 units on Nelson/Mir goes the distance at +200 to win 31 units
14 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -150 to win 9.33 units
14 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -155 to win 8.64 units
18 units on Nelson/Mir doesn't go the distance at -162 to win 11.11 units

7 units profit if the fight goes the distance; 4.08 units if the fight doesn't go the distance.

0.9 units on Mir by decision at +400 to win 3.6 units

Progress so far...

UFC Fight Night: Seattle: +40.00 units (11/14 successful bets)
Bellator 38: +1.9 units (1/1 succesful bets)
Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley: +5.47 units (2/5 successful bets)
Bellator 40: +1.7 units (1/1 succesful bets)
Bellator 41: +3.15 units (1/1 succesful bets)
UFC 129: -1.69 units (5/7 successful bets)
UFC 130: +14.59 units (7/13 successful bets)

Progress since March 26, 2011: +65.12 units

[Ladle]

The Ultimate Fighter Finale 13 Plays

Good luck everyone.

13 units on Anthony Pettis at -140 to win 9.29 units
5 units on Anthony Pettis at -150 to win 3.3 units

Hedged with...

6.89 units on Guida by decision at +260 to win 18 units

My big play of the evening. I appreciate that Guida has legitimately improved in recent years, and in becoming more submission-savvy, he's added something to his arsenal which has made him a considerably more dangerous and effective fighter. In spite of that, I still think Pettis beats him everywhere. Pettis has a significant advantage on the feet, and if the fight hits the mat, he's so slick off of his back that he can probably secure a triangle or sweep. Guida might be resilient enough to make it to the scorecards, but I certainly wouldn't bat an eye at a Pettis finish either. Should that happen, I think it could play out similarly to the finishes in the Kenny Florian and Roger Huerta fights; Guida walks headlong into a big shot, gets dropped, and then falls victim to a rear naked choke.

That said, obviously I'm not counting out Guida entirely. If he wins, it'll probably have to be an ugly decision of the same ilk as the Nate Diaz fight, comprised of a lot of clinching against the cage interspersed with the occasional flurry of wild punches. Basically, a performance more indicative of the Clay Guida of several years ago. He needs to find the best balance of winging punches, not getting kicked in the head or eating flush lead hooks, not getting his back taken, and not exposing himself in any of the ways which have led him to him losing in the past. It's a very tall task, but I just can't write Guida off. His style of fighting is very conducive to winning decisions and certain judges seem to have a lot of love for him. Either that or they're easily swayed by his ardent supporters in the crowd.

2 units on Chuck O'Neil at -175 to win 1.14 units

Cope has zero offense and his fight against Nijem on the show proved that he doesn't deal well with opponents who run him down whilst winging punches. O'Neil might not be a great fighter, but he's more than capable of replicating that.

0.4 units on Ryan McGillivray at +250 to win 1 unit

I think TUF Finales are some of the best cards for outright bets, particularly with regard to underdogs. This is an example of one of those money lines. Sure, the most likely outcome is that Bailey out-wrestles McGillivray, but are these odds really justified? I think not.

1.9 units on Jeremy Stephens by KO at +120 to win 2.28 units

Does this really require any explanation?

1.4 units on Josh Grispi by submission at +200 to win 2.8 units

Roop just isn't a UFC caliber fighter; his defensive wrestling is porous and his submission defense is very dubious. With that in mind - providing Grispi can shut down Roop's movement and get a hold of him - I think 'The Fluke' can force the tap in any number of ways. Even if he can't secure a takedown, Grispi has no problem latching onto a neck, jumping guard, and finishing from there.

Lastly, a couple of parlays:

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Herman/Stephens/Jorgensen/Edwards at +384 to win 3.84 units (2.84 units profit)

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Credeur/Stephens/Jorgensen/Edwards at +384 to win 3.84 units (2.84 units profit)

And...

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Ferguson/Grispi/Stephens/Weidman at +350 to win 3.5 units (2.5 units profit)

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Nijem/Grispi/Stephens/Weidman at +350 to win 3.5 units (2.5 units profit)

EDIT: Forgot this:

0.8 units on Maldonado by T/KO at +340 to win 2.72 units

0.4 units on Kingsbury by submission at +830 to win 3.32 units

0.8 units on Kingsbury by decision at +150 to win 1.2 units

EDIT at 2:00AM:

3.5 more units on O'Neil at -175.

[sideloaded]

The Ultimate Fighter Finale 13 Plays

Good luck everyone.

13 units on Anthony Pettis at -140 to win 9.29 units
5 units on Anthony Pettis at -150 to win 3.3 units

Hedged with...

6.89 units on Guida by decision at +260 to win 18 units

My big play of the evening. I appreciate that Guida has legitimately improved in recent years, and in becoming more submission-savvy, he's added something to his arsenal which has made him a considerably more dangerous and effective fighter. In spite of that, I still think Pettis beats him everywhere. Pettis has a significant advantage on the feet, and if the fight hits the mat, he's so slick off of his back that he can probably secure a triangle or sweep. Guida might be resilient enough to make it to the scorecards, but I certainly wouldn't bat an eye at a Pettis finish either. Should that happen, I think it could play out similarly to the finishes in the Kenny Florian and Roger Huerta fights; Guida walks headlong into a big shot, gets dropped, and then falls victim to a rear naked choke.

That said, obviously I'm not counting out Guida entirely. If he wins, it'll probably have to be an ugly decision of the same ilk as the Nate Diaz fight, comprised of a lot of clinching against the cage interspersed with the occasional flurry of wild punches. Basically, a performance more indicative of the Clay Guida of several years ago. He needs to find the best balance of winging punches, not getting kicked in the head or eating flush lead hooks, not getting his back taken, and not exposing himself in any of the ways which have led him to him losing in the past. It's a very tall task, but I just can't write Guida off. His style of fighting is very conducive to winning decisions and certain judges seem to have a lot of love for him. Either that or they're easily swayed by his ardent supporters in the crowd.

2 units on Chuck O'Neil at -175 to win 1.14 units

Cope has zero offense and his fight against Nijem on the show proved that he doesn't deal well with opponents who run him down whilst winging punches. O'Neil might not be a great fighter, but he's more than capable of replicating that.

0.4 units on Ryan McGillivray at +250 to win 1 unit

I think TUF Finales are some of the best cards for outright bets, particularly with regard to underdogs. This is an example of one of those money lines. Sure, the most likely outcome is that Bailey out-wrestles McGillivray, but are these odds really justified? I think not.

1.9 units on Jeremy Stephens by KO at +120 to win 2.28 units

Does this really require any explanation?

1.4 units on Josh Grispi by submission at +200 to win 2.8 units

Roop just isn't a UFC caliber fighter; his defensive wrestling is porous and his submission defense is very dubious. With that in mind - providing Grispi can shut down Roop's movement and get a hold of him - I think 'The Fluke' can force the tap in any number of ways. Even if he can't secure a takedown, Grispi has no problem latching onto a neck, jumping guard, and finishing from there.

Lastly, a couple of parlays:

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Herman/Stephens/Jorgensen/Edwards at +384 to win 3.84 units (2.84 units profit)

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Credeur/Stephens/Jorgensen/Edwards at +384 to win 3.84 units (2.84 units profit)

And...

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Ferguson/Grispi/Stephens/Weidman at +350 to win 3.5 units (2.5 units profit)

1 unit on a four-team parlay of Nijem/Grispi/Stephens/Weidman at +350 to win 3.5 units (2.5 units profit)

EDIT: Forgot this:

0.8 units on Maldonado by T/KO at +340 to win 2.72 units

0.4 units on Kingsbury by submission at +830 to win 3.32 units

0.8 units on Kingsbury by decision at +150 to win 1.2 units

EDIT at 2:00AM:

3.5 more units on O'Neil at -175.

tough card.

[Vaughany]

Looks like we had similarly terrible nights, all about re-bounding next wknd!

[Ladle]

Looks like we had similarly terrible nights, all about re-bounding next wknd!

Yeah, what a shit night! Almost everything that could have gone wrong for us went wrong. Gotta make up for it at 131.

[Ladle]

tough card.

I love how this is practically the only thread on this board you ever post on. Makes me feel so special. I wonder though: do you stick to one or two word posts because you're incapable of forming coherent sentences? What a sad existence. Still, I always value your opinion, even if you are mentally handicapped. Brain damaged posters are always welcome here!

[SportsPedagogy]

I love how this is practically the only thread on this board you ever post on.

People gotta get those points somehow

[Ladle]

People gotta get those points somehow

Haha, good point!

Well done last night by the way. Great call on Cope, and you got screwed on Maldonado (who mysteriously looked pretty slick on the ground!).

[bjpenn85]

well, he reversed almost all the fighters he met on youtube. But we couldnt not the quailty of his oppositions. I was very back and forth on this matchup before i landed on kingsbury. which essentially was wrong off course.

[bjpenn85]

know. it seems me and sideloaded share some abilities, damit how often i **** up this sentences.

[Ladle]

know. it seems me and sideloaded share some abilities, damit how often i **** up this sentences.

English isn't your native language, so you have an excuse. You're a lot smarter than that troll! He tried to argue with me that Randy Couture was never owned by Chuck Liddell. Dude doesn't know shit about MMA.