Ladle's MMA Betting

[Ladle]

Hello, SBR! I've been a lurker on the MMA section of this forum for a while now and thought it was about time I made an account.

First of all, a little about myself: I'm a writer by profession who has been training in boxing for the past three years and jiu-jitsu for the past year. Don't expect to see me pop in the UFC any time soon; they're just hobbies.

As for what brings me to these parts: I've always had a penchant for gambling and as a long-time fan of mixed martial arts, it was only a matter of time before I started making wagers on fights. In November of last year, I began betting "seriously" on MMA, and have managed - through some delightful combination of luck and knowledge - to turn a profit on six of seven Strikeforce events and seven of nine UFC events. From now on, I'll be documenting my progress in this thread. Let's hope it doesn't turn out to be a total train wreck.

Looking forward to comparing wagers and getting involved with some of the discussion here. If you've got a betting thread, chances are I've been following your progress, so drop me a line and say hello. If you haven't got a betting thread, say hello anyway. I love you all equally. Even the trolls.

Cheers,
- Ladle (or Jake, if you don't conform to using goofy forum names)

[Vaughany]

Nice one and welcome to the forum. Also, it's a good job you love trolls as there are plenty of them... although no way near as bad as sherdog thankfully! Have you got anything in mind for the Fight Night this weekend?

[Ladle]

Okay, let's get the ball rolling.

Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley Plays

10 units on Nick Diaz at -165

Jumped on this line yesterday. Diaz opened at -300 but plummeted to -165 within about three minutes. I'll likely be hedging this to some extent with Daley inside the distance.

With that said, I don't see Diaz getting knocked out. Clearly it's a possibility when fighting a one-shot kill artist, but even if Daley clobbers him with a big left hook, I think Diaz goes down a la the Gomi fight and ultimately weathers the storm. The big issue in that scenario is whether or not Diaz gets cut up, which is a possibility made even more likely given Daley's tendency to elbow in the clinch. That's why I feel "inside the distance" is more appropriate than "by KO/TKO" here.

UFC Fight Night: Seattle Plays

2.5 units on Amir Sadollah at -165

Near-opening line for Sadollah. He handles Johnson standing and is probably defensively sound enough on the ground to nullify any submission attempts. Good value at those odds.

Nice one and welcome to the forum. Also, it's a good job you love trolls as there are plenty of them... although no way near as bad as sherdog thankfully! Have you got anything in mind for the Fight Night this weekend?

Cheers fella. Aside from the above bet, just waiting on the prelim lines to be released. Do you forecast any undervalued dogs? I think Morecraft has potential in that regard.

[bjpenn85]

Hello and welcome to the best forum on the blue planet.

A question about your daley inside the distance pick. I did not understand what you meant by not picking KOTKO. Even if it is a doctor stoppage, with cut and elbow and what not, it will still end up as TKO? Only reason to bet daley inside distance from my standpoint would be if daley went for sub, but he never does.
So why not P.Daley KO/tko ?

[Ladle]

Hello and welcome to the best forum on the blue planet.

A question about your daley inside the distance pick. I did not understand what you meant by not picking KOTKO. Even if it is a doctor stoppage, with cut and elbow and what not, it will still end up as TKO? Only reason to bet daley inside distance from my standpoint would be if daley went for sub, but he never does.
So why not P.Daley KO/tko ?

Thanks. Are you the real BJ Penn? If so, it's an honour to meet you, BJ.

As for your question, I was thinking that the bookies wouldn't count a doctor stoppage under KO/TKO in the effort to fleece people out of more money. If I'm wrong in that assumption, the ITD and by KO/TKO lines should be very similar; as you alluded to, Daley won't be trying to submit Nick Diaz.

[Vaughany]

Cheers fella. Aside from the above bet, just waiting on the prelim lines to be released. Do you forecast any undervalued dogs? I think Morecraft has potential in that regard.

Yeah Morecraft is my planned big play, not sure if he'll be dog but if he is I'll be puttin 10 units on it! I don't foresee any other decent value dogs, maybe small chance Miranda will be dog against Simpson . I like Semerzier as long as he's at -200 range or better, like Lentz by decision if I can get it on Euro site, and will have Hathaway in a couple parlays.

[Ladle]

Yeah Morecraft is my planned big play, not sure if he'll be dog but if he is I'll be puttin 10 units on it! I don't foresee any other decent value dogs, maybe small chance Miranda will be dog against Simpson . I like Semerzier as long as he's at -200 range or better, like Lentz by decision if I can get it on Euro site, and will have Hathaway in a couple parlays.

Morecraft will be getting the 10 unit treatment from me as well if that's the case. I think it's definitely a possibility given that Brendan Schaub opened at EV earlier this month.

Agreed with you on Semerzier. I'm hoping to catch the opening line on that one as the bookies seem to have a soft spot for TUF alumnus.

Is there any chance Lowe/Lentz doesn't go to a decision? Might be worth playing both of them by decision if they're +EV.

[Ladle]

What an idiot. I completely forgot one of my main plays of the weekend. Probably because I made it about two weeks ago.

UFC Fight Night: Seattle Plays

5 units on Phil Davis to win by decision at +175

I can't see Davis submitting Rogerio, but I do see him dominating position for three rounds. Will be interesting to see if Rogerio can pull off any of his patented half guard sweeps, but I think Davis' base might be a bit too good.

[Vaughany]

What an idiot. I completely forgot one of my main plays of the weekend. Probably because I made it about two weeks ago.

UFC Fight Night: Seattle Plays

5 units on Phil Davis to win by decision at +175

I can't see Davis submitting Rogerio, but I do see him dominating position for three rounds. Will be interesting to see if Rogerio can pull off any of his patented half guard sweeps, but I think Davis' base might be a bit too good.

Did u get tht on Paddypower by any chance?

[Ladle]

Did u get tht on Paddypower by any chance?

Certainly did!

[Vaughany]

Certainly did!

Nice one, I got the +175 as well

[omalley21]

Good luck. I need to get access to a euro book. I gotta catch the 5dimes opener for Davis by decision. I like the Diaz play a lot too.

[Ladle]

Good luck. I need to get access to a euro book. I gotta catch the 5dimes opener for Davis by decision. I like the Diaz play a lot too.

Thanks man, and good luck to you with catching that 5dimes opener. I definitely think it'll start at better than even money.

Also, if you're not comfortable with playing Diaz at the current odds, you could always bet on Diaz by submission when that line is released, and then hedge it with Daley ITD/by KO. Both will be +EV and I think that covers all of the likely outcomes in this fight.

[Vaughany]

Morecraft will be getting the 10 unit treatment from me as well if that's the case. I think it's definitely a possibility given that Brendan Schaub opened at EV earlier this month.

Agreed with you on Semerzier. I'm hoping to catch the opening line on that one as the bookies seem to have a soft spot for TUF alumnus.

Is there any chance Lowe/Lentz doesn't go to a decision? Might be worth playing both of them by decision if they're +EV.

Yeah hoping Semerzier comes out at -180 or something. Ha yeah, Lentz is gonna have a big cardio advantage so maybe small chance he can finish Lowe in 3rd round and maybe Lowe can catch Lentz with a big overhand right in first round but unlikely!

[Kaladarus]

Welcome to the forums. It's always nice to have more people giving opinions on fights. I like all your picks so far.

[Ladle]

Yeah hoping Semerzier comes out at -180 or something. Ha yeah, Lentz is gonna have a big cardio advantage so maybe small chance he can finish Lowe in 3rd round and maybe Lowe can catch Lentz with a big overhand right in first round but unlikely!

I actually want to watch that fight. Just to see if it lives up to its potential of being the most boring 15 minutes in combat sports history.

Welcome to the forums. It's always nice to have more people giving opinions on fights. I like all your picks so far.

Cheers pal!

[bjpenn85]

After what i have seen of mario miranda, im not impressed. He lost decisively against demian maia. It no shame in losing to Demian Maia, i think its safe to say, but he was controlled and beaten to the extent i was almost blown away of how little resistance he actually gave back. He was beating DL but, he is not ufc caliber, and, he didnt defeat david where david was best, which is on the feet, he took him down. So far Mario Miranda has not shown any signs of deserving his place in ufc, from what i can see.
Aaron simpson have solid wrestling, and has two even matches one of which he won against a mediocre fighter in tom lawlor and a soon to be mentioned among ufcs top 10 middle weights, if he is not already in Mark Munoz.
He lost against munoz, but it was close. He may won undeservely against Lawlor, but it was close.
Miranda got smashed against, Harris, and humiliated on the grown with maia.

Is there something i have left out about Mario Miranda?

[bjpenn85]

And also, I am not the real BJ Penn.

[Ladle]

After what i have seen of mario miranda, im not impressed. He lost decisively against demian maia. It no shame in losing to Demian Maia, i think its safe to say, but he was controlled and beaten to the extent i was almost blown away of how little resistance he actually gave back. He was beating DL but, he is not ufc caliber, and, he didnt defeat david where david was best, which is on the feet, he took him down. So far Mario Miranda has not shown any signs of deserving his place in ufc, from what i can see.
Aaron simpson have solid wrestling, and has two even matches one of which he won against a mediocre fighter in tom lawlor and a soon to be mentioned among ufcs top 10 middle weights, if he is not already in Mark Munoz.
He lost against munoz, but it was close. He may won undeservely against Lawlor, but it was close.
Miranda got smashed against, Harris, and humiliated on the grown with maia.

Is there something i have left out about Mario Miranda?

I'm inclined to agree with you, BJ. Miranda's biggest win is David Loiseau and Loiseau has no place in a contemporary octagon. As for his other UFC fights, he got lamped by Gerald Harris without too much trouble, and while he showed impressive submission defense against Maia, he still got dominated for three rounds.

With regard to Aaron Simpson, he doesn't seem to fight well when someone's pushing the action against him; we saw that early in the Tom Lawlor fight, in the Chris Leben fight, and most recently in the Mark Munoz fight. Fortunately for Simpson, it's not characteristic of Miranda to push the pace in the same way as the aforementioned fighters. On top of that, I think Simpson can take him down pretty easily. Maia had no problem slinging Miranda to the mat, so I doubt a NCAA Division I Wrestler will have many problems in that regard. I think the most likely outcome is 30-27 across the board after Simpson out-wrestles him for three rounds. With that said, Miranda doesn't have the sturdiest chin, so I wouldn't rule out a stoppage either.

And also, I am not the real BJ Penn.

I'm going to pretend you are.

[bjpenn85]

I do agree. Miranda do not seem to push the pace, if Simpson comes in around even, i will put at least a unit on him
A unit for me is 100 dollars.

[Ladle]

I do agree. Miranda do not seem to push the pace, if Simpson comes in around even, i will put at least a unit on him
A unit for me is 100 dollars.

High roller.

I'll be sticking the max amount on Simpson if he opens close to EV (it's unlikely, but stranger things have happened). Miranda will probably end up around +200 come fight time.

[Ladle]

First of all, a warning: this is a really, really long post. I won't be upset if you don't read all of it, or even half of it. Feel free to jump straight to the bets which are relevant to you.

From now on, I'll be writing some fight analysis to justify each of my wagers. That way, if and when a prediction fails, I can see specifically where my thinking was off. Also, hopefully it'll aid some of you in making a decision if you're on the fence about a particular bet.

With that said, let's get to it. 5dimes' props were fantastic for this event and I felt obliged to jump on several of them.

UFC Fight Night: Seattle

First up, a hedge:

6 units on Mike Russow at +245 to win 14.6 units

Hedged with...

4.8 units on Jon Madsen by decision at +125 to win 6 units

I would have put even more on this if Paddy Power didn't cap my betting on Madsen by decision. I think this is a great hedge for two reasons: 1) Russow is a hugely undervalued dog; 2) It's very, very unlikely that Madsen will finish Russow.

Here's what I said about the fight in another thread earlier this week:

I don't see any value at all in Madsen at -260. This fight is fairly close to 50/50 in my opinion.

Mike Russow is a Division 1 Wrestler and the majority of his victories have come from taking opponents down and submitting them. If Madsen ends up on his back, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get tapped.

While Madsen's striking is better than Russow's, Russow has the trump card of having a head made out of reinforced titanium. Also, as we saw in the Todd Duffee fight, Russow packs a lot of power into those ugly punches. That doesn't exactly bode well for Madsen, as he doesn't have the staunchest of chins; let's not forget that he dropped like a sack of potatoes against Brendan Schaub on TUF.

4 units on Aaron Simpson at -195 to win 2.04 units

In conjunction with...

0.3 units on Mario Miranda by submission at +820 to win 3.3 units

-195 was the opener at 5dimes and the best possible line for Simpson. I think it represents good value. Here's what I had to say about how both fighters shape up:

Miranda's biggest win is David Loiseau and Loiseau has no place inside a contemporary octagon. As for his other UFC fights, he got lamped by Gerald Harris without too much trouble, and while he showed impressive submission defense against Maia, he still got dominated for three rounds.

With regard to Aaron Simpson, he doesn't seem to fight well when someone's pushing the action against him; we saw that early in the Tom Lawlor fight, in the Chris Leben fight, and most recently in the Mark Munoz fight. Fortunately for Simpson, it's not characteristic of Miranda to push the pace in the same way as the aforementioned fighters. On top of that, I think Simpson can take him down pretty easily. Maia had no problem slinging Miranda to the mat, so I doubt a NCAA Division I Wrestler will have many problems in that regard. I think the most likely outcome is 30-27 across the board after Simpson out-wrestles him for three rounds. With that said, Miranda doesn't have the sturdiest chin, so I wouldn't rule out a stoppage either.

As for the bet on Miranda by submission, the odds really jumped out at me. I don't see how he beats Simpson any other way than catching him in a submission, and at the ridiculous odds of +820, it was really hard to resist. Call me a chicken but it's a nice way to really minimize a loss for an extremely small price.

4 units on Christian Morecraft at -170 to win 2.3 units

Morecraft was fantastic in the first round against Struve, showing improved wrestling and pulling off a really nifty pass to mount. If he can do the same against McCorkle, it's game over; Big Sexy looked ready to give up the moment Struve got dominant position on him in their fight.

Here's what I said about how their striking and wrestling skills match up:

Morecraft's striking ability has actually looked okay, whereas McCorkle's striking ability has looked essentially nonexistent. Morecraft smashed Lee Beane so hard on the feet that he didn't want to continue, and Beane is a much better fighter than any of the cans McCorkle beat up.

Wrestling-wise they're more closely matched, but I still give the edge to Morecraft. Watch his fight against Josh Diekman (incidentally, another fighter who is leagues above any of the pre-UFC competition that McCorkle faced). Morecraft hits a beautiful clinch takedown right off the bat and chokes Diekman out about 10 seconds later. That's a much more impressive display of wrestling ability than anything McCorkle has pulled off.

2.5 units on John Hathaway by decision at +120 to win 3 units

Hedged with...

0.36 units on Kris McCray by decision at +700 to win 2.5 units

I'm pretty confident this one goes the distance. Hathaway is a step above McCray in terms of skill level, but he's not much of a finisher. Sure, he rocked Sanchez with that memorable knee, and he came fairly close to submitting Story with a kimura, but other than that he hasn't looked too threatening against quality opposition. Also, while he's great at achieving dominant positions when he gets opponents on the ground, he's not good at maintaining those positions at all. Story exposed the fragility of Hathaway's top game when he swept him from mount with relative ease on two separate occasions.

McCray, while a decent wrestler, doesn't have the gas tank to be effective for prolonged periods of time. I think he might overpower Hathaway and wrestle him to the mat early on, but Hathaway's propensity for the triangle choke and scramble ability should keep him busy. By the second round, we'll probably see McCray slow down significantly - like he always does - resulting in him getting outboxed and possibly taken down for the remaining ten minutes.

My reason for the hedge on McCray by decision is three-fold. Firstly, it's very unlikely that he finishes Hathaway. Hathaway is far too submission-savvy, and while McCray has a power advantage in the stand-up, that power will begin to fade very quickly once fatigue sets in. Secondly, I concede there's a chance that McCray's cardio has improved. If he can out-wrestle Hathaway for one and a half rounds, then that immediately calls the decision into question. Thirdly, +700 is an absolutely ridiculous line. It's screaming out for action, and provides me with a nice hedge for very little cost.

1 unit on Nik Lentz by decision at +160 to win 1.6 units

Another prop courtesy of Paddy Power. I was considering making a big play and hedging it with Lowe by decision, as the odds of this fight going the distance are surely astronomical. Unfortunately though, Paddy only gave me a low bet limit for this one.

I think Lentz wins this in his usual excruciatingly humdrum style. He's the more technically acute wrestler and won't gas half way through like Lowe. There's maybe some potential for a late submission finish by Lentz on an exhausted Lowe, but given his track record, I have to doubt it.

0.4 units on Chan Sung Jung by decision at +300 to win 1.2 units

In light of their last fight, I like this play. One tendency we see in rematches of controversial fights - especially in boxing - is judges end up erring on the side of caution, scoring rounds for the "wronged" guy in the first fight. I suspect the judges will give close rounds to Jung, as he was definitely ripped off last year. Here's hoping it plays out similarly to before!

[Vaughany]

Liking the picks and hedges...they all make logical sense! GL tonight

[Ladle]

Liking the picks and hedges...they all make logical sense! GL tonight

Thanks man. Best of luck to you too!

[The HOFF]

Bets look good. I've got Morecraft and Russow too.

[Ladle]

Bets look good. I've got Morecraft and Russow too.

Cheers! Let's hope they pull through.

Got a few more bets to add which I couldn't be bothered to write up at the time:

0.75 units on Johny Hendricks by decision at +150 to win 1.13 units

I think the most likely scenario here is Hendricks playing top control for three rounds, likely interspersed with some success in the stand-up. He should definitely look to exploit Waldburger's porous defensive wrestling, and while Waldburger is extremely aggressive with his submission attempts, I think Hendricks is solid enough to stifle them. After all, Hendricks trains with Marc Laimon, and it's safe to say that he's been spending a lot of time refining his submission defense in the lead up to this fight.

4 units on Morecraft/McCorkle does not go the distance at -200 to win 2 units

Another good line from Paddy, though I probably wouldn't have played it at much worse than -200. I see this fight going the distance one of two ways: 1) if someone consistently gets top position and decides to stall instead of working towards a finish; 2) if neither gets an early finish and they both end up gassing horribly. I'd say the latter is more probable than the former, but as both are still unlikely, I think this is a worthwhile bet.

1.5 units on Mackens Semerzier wins inside distance at +180 to win 2.7 units

It's been said on here a few times: Semerzier is probably better than Caceres in every single way. Compound that with the fact that Caceres has been submitted by lesser opposition in the past, and I think it's likely that Semerzier will get the finish here.

Also, I added more to my bet on Russow, and subsequently my hedge of Madsen by decision:

5 units on Mike Russow at +250 to win 12.5 units

Hedged with...

5 units on Madsen by decision at EV to win 5 units

Finally, a single bet on Bellator tonight:

1 unit on Carpenter at +190 to win 1.9 units

Carpenter should be the favourite here. He isn't great, but he beat Jamal Patterson, who is 10 times the fighter that Daniel Gracie is.

EDIT: Odds just got better on Madsen by decision, so I'm adding more:

5.1 units on Mike Russow at +250 to win 12.7 units

Hedged with...

4 units on Madsen by decision at +129 to win 5.1 units

Totally forgot to add my one and only arb for this event:

25 units on Chan Sung Jung at EV to win 26.2 units

26.2 units on Leonard Garcia at +105 to win 27.5 units

[MMAdisciple]

I don't think Mccray will have the cardio to go 3 rounds, think he's getting finished but let's see. And your Miranda sub bet is odd to me, if anything I think he takes a close decision or stops the punching bag Simpson with strikes. Good luck!

[Ladle]

I don't think Mccray will have the cardio to go 3 rounds, think he's getting finished but let's see. And your Miranda sub bet is odd to me, if anything I think he takes a close decision or stops the punching bag Simpson with strikes. Good luck!

What evidence suggests to you that Miranda will be able to stop Simpson on the feet? As for Miranda winning a close decision, I'd say that's pretty unlikely considering Simpson will probably be able to take him down at will.

I think there's a chance that Hathaway can tap a gassed McCray, but I don't think it's probable. Cardio failings aside, McCray is very resilient, and still quite capable of grinding out a win even once fatigue sets in (like he did against Kyle Noke). Also, he looked like he was carrying around considerably less muscle at the weigh-ins yesterday. That alone will likely improve his gas tank.

Nevertheless, thanks!

[MMAdisciple]

Not saying Miranda will be able to stop Simpson on the feet, but if Miranda wins, I think his primary means would be a TKO.

[Ladle]

Not saying Miranda will be able to stop Simpson on the feet, but if Miranda wins, I think his primary means would be a TKO.

Yeah, but how? In the stand-up? And based on what evidence?

[MMAdisciple]

Yeah, but how? In the stand-up? And based on what evidence?

Yes in the stand-up, "evidence":

- Simpson gets tagged too much in fights.

- Simpson gasses at the slightest resistance to his wrestling. Gassed after one slam and a brief LNP on Leben.

- Miranda has more (T)KO wins than anything else in his career.

- Youth factor sides with Miranda.

[Ladle]

- Simpson gets tagged too much in fights.

And? That doesn't mean he's going to get knocked out. Incidentally, the people who have "tagged" him are the people who have been able to stop his takedowns. Maia was throwing Miranda all over the place, so I expect a wrestler of Simpson's caliber to take him down pretty easily.

- Simpson gasses at the slightest resistance to his wrestling. Gassed after one slam and a brief LNP on Leben.

Inaccurate. Also, Simpson's cardio looked considerably improved in the Munoz fight. That was three rounds of fast paced, strenuous action against one of the best guys at 185, and Simpson only lost narrowly.

- Miranda has more (T)KO wins than anything else in his career.

LOL. That doesn't mean a thing. Miranda was getting TKO wins over absolute cans (one of which had a record of 1 win and 10 losses). His best TKO win is over David Loiseau, who doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the UFC.

As if that wasn't enough, several of Miranda's TKO victories came from taking guys down and beating them up to force a stoppage. He's not going to be able to take Simpson down. He probably won't even try.

There's a much greater chance of a submission. Miranda will be on his back a lot and has a black belt, so he's at least a notable threat in that sense.

- Youth factor sides with Miranda.

How on Earth does that mean he's going to stop Simpson with strikes?

[MMAdisciple]

How on Earth does that mean he's going to stop Simpson with strikes?

It gives him an edge in the fight, and seeing Miranda's main way to win is TKO...I listed it. Ditch the snotty attitude.

[Ladle]

It gives him an edge in the fight, and seeing Miranda's main way to win is TKO...I listed it. Ditch the snotty attitude.

Whether or not it gives him the edge in the fight is irrelevant in a discussion of why Miranda is more likely to win by TKO than submission.

I'm not being snotty; I'm just disproving your point that Miranda's main way to win is by TKO.

[MMAdisciple]

If you think you've "disproved" anything by saying stuff basically like "And? Nut-uh" and "LOL, means nothing" and "Inaccurate" (without giving us the "accurate" version)....more power to ya!

LOL.