Ladle's MMA Betting

[Ladle]

If you think you've "disproved" anything by saying stuff basically like "And? Nut-uh" and "LOL, means nothing" and "Inaccurate" (without giving us the "accurate" version)....more power to ya!

LOL.

Well if you actually read what I said, you'd have seen that I clearly disproved each of your inane points. Allow me to do it again without any snide remarks; then you can give a rebuttal.

- Simpson gets tagged too much in fights.

That doesn't mean he's going to get knocked out. Incidentally, the people who have "tagged" him are the people who have been able to stop his takedowns. Maia was throwing Miranda all over the place, so I expect a wrestler of Simpson's caliber to take him down pretty easily.

Furthermore, on the occasions Simpson has been hit, he's displayed a decent chin. The only person to ever hurt him is Leben, and even then, he didn't drop Simpson. He just put him on queer street and Rosenthal prematurely ended the fight. Leben is a more powerful striker than Miranda, by the way.

- Simpson gasses at the slightest resistance to his wrestling. Gassed after one slam and a brief LNP on Leben.

Look at the Munoz fight (his most recent fight, and therefore the fight most indicative of his current form). That was a very grueling fight in which Munoz showed great resistance to Simpson's wrestling, and vice versa. It was three rounds of fast paced, strenuous action for Simpson against one of the best guys at 185, and Simpson only narrowly lost. His cardio actually looked quite good.

- Miranda has more (T)KO wins than anything else in his career.

Miranda hasn't TKO'd anyone remotely credible. One of his TKO wins was against a guy with 1 win and 10 losses. His best TKO win is over David Loiseau, who doesn't deserve to be anywhere near the UFC.

Furthermore, several of Miranda's TKO victories came from taking guys down and beating them up to force a stoppage. He's not going to be able to take Simpson down. He probably won't even try.

There's a much greater chance of a submission. Miranda will be on his back a lot and has a black belt, so he's at least a notable threat in that sense.

- Youth factor sides with Miranda.

This doesn't mean he's going to knock him out. You could argue that youth and speed will aid in him pulling off a swift submission. It doesn't contribute to your point.

Care to justify your argument now?

[Vaughany]

Simpson's chin is pretty solid, he took some shots from Lawler and managed to go three-rounds with Munoz without gettin dropped. Of course there is always the chance that Miranda could catch him, drop him and then finish with strikes as Disciple is suggesting, but I tend to lean more to the notion that Miranda if anything will be on his back for large portions of each round and thus will have to look for a sub. I posted an article a while ago before the Simpson/Munoz fight were Simpson talked about his training issues and how he'd had an illness and been on a drip before and after the Leben fight, and had issues/distractions with moving to new gym that he started with CB and Bader. I expect his cardio to be better than it was against Munoz now and for it to be more like it was against Lawler. Simpson by decision is my prediction.

[Ladle]

Simpson's chin is pretty solid, he took some shots from Lawler and managed to go three-rounds with Munoz without gettin dropped. Of course there is always the chance that Miranda could catch him, drop him and then finish with strikes as Disciple is suggesting, but I tend to lean more to the notion that Miranda if anything will be on his back for large portions of each round and thus will have to look for a sub. I posted an article a while ago before the Simpson/Munoz fight were Simpson talked about his training issues and how he'd had an illness and been on a drip before and after the Leben fight, and had issues/distractions with moving to new gym that he started with CB and Bader. I expect his cardio to be better than it was against Munoz now and for it to be more like it was against Lawler. Simpson by decision is my prediction.

Solid analysis.

There is absolutely a chance that Miranda can drop Simpson with strikes and get a stoppage - albeit a very, very remote one. My point is that - in light of everything we know about both fighters - it's not intelligent to assume that a TKO is the most likely way Miranda wins. That's simply not a smart judgment to make based on the evidence we have, and I think I substantiated that in my last post.

MMADisciple: I don't aim to come across as abrasive, and I'm sure you're a nice guy, but when people make bold claims with no justification, it can be difficult to come across as a nice guy when responding.

[Vaughany]

Looks like Simpson got comfortable decision win as expected...kicking myself for not taking it on paddy.

[Ladle]

Looks like Simpson got comfortable decision win as expected...kicking myself for not taking it on paddy.

Seems like he took Miranda's back a lot and was constantly slamming him on his head, so I'm not too annoyed I didn't take the decision line. Could have finished him on another night.

[Vaughany]

Yeah, better safe than sorry with tht one! Ur off to a solid start, looks like Carpenter has taken first round against Gracie as well.

[Vaughany]

Carpenter gets the split-decision victory...gd job

[Ladle]

YES!!!



THE DOOMFIST STRIKES AGAIN!

[Ladle]

UFC Fight Night: Seattle Results

Fantastic night. My predictions were pretty spot on!

Amount Staked: 56.21 units

Amount Returned: 96.21 units

Profit: +40.00 units

11/14 successful bets

2.5 units on Amir Sadollah at -165 to win 1.5 units

5 units on Phil Davis to win by decision at +175 to win 3 units

6 units on Mike Russow at +245 to win 14.6 units

Hedged with...

4.8 units on Jon Madsen by decision at +125 to win 6 units

5 units on Mike Russow at +250 to win 12.5 units

Hedged with...

5 units on Madsen by decision at EV to win 5 units

5.1 units on Mike Russow at +250 to win 12.7 units

Hedged with...

4 units on Madsen by decision at +129 to win 5.1 units

4 units on Aaron Simpson at -195 to win 2.04 units

In conjunction with...

0.3 units on Mario Miranda by submission at +820 to win 3.3 units

4 units on Christian Morecraft at -170 to win 2.3 units

2.5 units on John Hathaway by decision at +120 to win 3 units

Hedged with...

0.36 units on Kris McCray by decision at +700 to win 2.5 units

1 unit on Nik Lentz by decision at +160 to win 1.6 units

0.4 units on Chan Sung Jung by decision at +300 to win 1.2 units

4 units on Morecraft/McCorkle does not go the distance at -200 to win 2 units

0.75 units on Johny Hendricks by decision at +150 to win 1.13 units

1.5 units on Mackens Semerzier wins inside distance at +180 to win 2.7 units

Bellator 38 Results

Total Amount Staked: 1 unit

Total Amount Returned: 2.9 units

Profit: 1.9 units

1 unit on Carpenter at +190 to win 1.9 units

[omalley21]

Great job Ladle.

[Vaughany]

Awesome work compadre!

[Ladle]

Awesome work compadre!

Great job Ladle.

Cheers guys! Congrats to you as well Vaughany on yet another excellent night!

[Vaughany]

You reckon paddy will offer props for Daley/Diaz event? I cant remember them ever doing props for strikeforce before

Really wanna get Melendez/Kawajiri to go distance

[Ladle]

You reckon paddy will offer props for Daley/Diaz event? I cant remember them ever doing props for strikeforce before

Really wanna get Melendez/Kawajiri to go distance

Not sure mate. I don't remember any props for previous Strikeforce events either, but I didn't make a point of checking.

Hopefully 5dimes has some decent lines.

[terpkeg]

1 unit on Carpenter at +190 to win 1.9 units

Carpenter should be the favourite here. He isn't great, but he beat Jamal Patterson, who is 10 times the fighter that Daniel Gracie is.

Good call here, got a nice scalp on this fight.

[bjpenn85]

yep. Thanks Ladle. I read what your wrote and played. Earned a working day.

[Vaughany]

Not fancy any of the Daley/Diaz props on Paddy? I hassled the traders and they should be puttin up props for rest of main card later today hopefully

[Ladle]

Not fancy any of the Daley/Diaz props on Paddy? I hassled the traders and they should be puttin up props for rest of main card later today hopefully

Yeah man, I've made a couple of plays. I'll probably do a write up of my bets tomorrow.

yep. Thanks Ladle. I read what your wrote and played. Earned a working day.

Glad I could be of some assistance!

[Ladle]

Finally getting round to posting my plays. Should be a fantastic weekend of fights.

Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley Plays

Starting things off with a hedge...

10 units on Shinya Aoki by submission at +150 to win 15 units

Hedged with...

1.33 units on Lyle Beerbohm by decision at +750 to win 10 units

0.5 units on Lyle Beerbohm by TKO at +1800 to win 10 units

And just in case...

2 units on Aoki by decision at +254 to win 5 units

11.17 units profit if Aoki wins by submission.

Unless Beerbohm has addressed the defensive grappling blemishes that were present against Healy just a couple of weeks ago, an Aoki submission victory is the most likely outcome here.

That said, if Beerbohm can manage to avoid getting tapped, I think there's a good chance he takes the decision. Even if Aoki is active from the bottom - which he no doubt will be - judges are always keen to reward the fighter on top, even if they're relatively inactive (look no further than the Nate Diaz/Dong Hyun Kim fight from earlier this year as proof). Combine that positional dominance with some success in the stand-up, and I think we'll see Fancy Pants get the nod if it goes all three.

Beerbohm's striking isn't much better than Aoki's, so it's unlikely that he stops him, but the great value on offer meant I could include Beerbohm by TKO as a hedge for a small price.

My reason for not making my bet on Aoki by decision a "full" hedge is two-fold: firstly - and rather obviously - it would reduce my return. Secondly, Aoki would probably need to spend prolonged periods of the fight on top to get the nod in a decision. If Aoki does indeed get top control, I see Beerbohm getting tapped with deliberate speed. Perhaps I'm a chicken for making this bet at all, but oh well!

10 units on Nick Diaz at -165 to win 6.1 units

Hedged with...

3.3 units on Paul Daley by KO/TKO at +300 to win 10 units

This is a fight that Diaz should win, but obviously the likelihood of victory varies depending on what game plan he employs. That said, I think I have most bases covered with this hedge; Daley clearly won't get a submission, and if it goes the distance, I think Diaz will take the decision. Nick Thompson out-boxed Daley for prolonged stretches during their fight, so I see no reason why Diaz can't be successful doing the same thing across five rounds.

4 units on Melendez/Kawajiri goes the distance at -170 to win 2.3 units

1 unit on Melendez/Kawajiri goes the distance at -120 to win 0.8 units

*Note: The latter of these two bets was made once Paddy Power finally released their lines. They took forever.

Two absolutely rock-solid lightweights; Melendez is extremely durable and Kawajiri showed in the Alvarez fight how much punishment he can endure. Good luck picking a winner, but I'm pretty confident this one goes all five.

1.5 units on Mousasi by KO at +190 to win 2.85 units

Mousasi is superior to Jardine in essentially every facet of the game. I think we see the defensive flaws in Jardine's striking exposed yet again, resulting in a Mousasi knockout. Left hook, anyone?

Okay folks, that's it for now. Feel free to give your thoughts on any of these plays, and good luck to you all for Saturday.

[Ladle]

Bellator 40 Plays

2 units on Michael Chandler at -115 to win 1.7 units

I expected Chandler to be in the -150 region, so this bet represents some value for me. Woodard is an excellent fighter but I feel that Chandler matches up favourably against him - even if he is just a novice.

EDIT:

Last bet before the event starts. Pilfered this one from Eccocide:

2 units on a parlay of Mousasi to win Inside the Distance and Hiroyuki Takaya at +110 to win 2.2 units

[Ladle]

Winning night for me. Not a massive profit like last event, but still okay.

Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley Plays

Amount Staked: 35.63

Amount Returned: 41.11

Profit: +5.47 units

10 units on Shinya Aoki by submission at +150 to win 15 units

Hedged with...

1.33 units on Lyle Beerbohm by decision at +750 to win 10 units

0.5 units on Lyle Beerbohm by TKO at +1800 to win 10 units

And just in case...

2 units on Aoki by decision at +254 to win 5 units

11.17 units profit if Aoki wins by submission.

10 units on Nick Diaz at -165 to win 6.1 units

Hedged with...

3.3 units on Paul Daley by KO/TKO at +300 to win 10 units

4 units on Melendez/Kawajiri goes the distance at -170 to win 2.3 units

1 unit on Melendez/Kawajiri goes the distance at -120 to win 0.8 units

1.5 units on Mousasi by KO at +190 to win 2.85 units

2 units on a parlay of Mousasi to win Inside the Distance and Hiroyuki Takaya at +110 to win 2.2 units

Bellator 40 Plays

Amount Staked: 2

Amount Returned: 3.7

Profit: +1.7 units

2 units on Michael Chandler at -115 to win 1.7 units

Progress so far...

UFC Fight Night: Seattle: +40.00 units
Bellator 38: +1.9 units
Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley: +5.47 units
Bellator 40: +1.7 units

Progress since March 26, 2011: +49.07 units

[Vaughany]

Gd job bro...I should of hedged Aoki by sub with Beerbohm by decision instead of the other way round!

[ufcmma36]

definitely a great job keep up the great work

[Ladle]

Gd job bro...I should of hedged Aoki by sub with Beerbohm by decision instead of the other way round!

Thanks bro. You'll be back to your winning ways with the next event; I think UFC 129 has some decent betting potential.

definitely a great job keep up the great work

Cheers man. Appreciate the kind words.

[Ladle]

Bellator 41 Plays

5 units on a parlay of Joe Warren and Particio Freire at -160 to win 3.15 units

Parlay of two warranted favourites. Just some quick thoughts:

- Galvao obviously isn't on Warren's level wrestling-wise, and while Galvao is a better grappler on the ground, he's not much of a finisher. Compound that with the fact that Warren's submission defense is continually improving, and I think the champ wins a fairly comfortable decision. Wouldn't rule out a stoppage, either, considering Galvao doesn't have the sturdiest of chins.

- Reis hasn't particularly improved and Freire is even better now than when he controlled Reis for two rounds last year. Pretty straight-forward stuff.

[xelance]

tailing you ladle, dont know much about bellator..but im on it small with you! BOL

[xelance]

bleh...or not. The odds are down at Bodog, and I wont take them straight up at Bookmaker...way too pricey. Im not on the 5dimes train yet, a little slow on that one haha. BOL!

[Ladle]

bleh...or not. The odds are down at Bodog, and I wont take them straight up at Bookmaker...way too pricey. Im not on the 5dimes train yet, a little slow on that one haha. BOL!

Ah, no worries! I'm honoured that you trusted my judgment enough to consider making a play.

[xelance]

Ah, no worries! I'm honoured that you trusted my judgment enough to consider making a play.

of course! You are a solid, knowledgable capper and I really enjoy your writeups...keep em coming!

[Ladle]

of course! You are a solid, knowledgable capper and I really enjoy your writeups...keep em coming!

Thank you bro. Will do.

[Ladle]

Bit of a tainted victory last night, but c'est la vie.

Good result for me; bad result for Mixed Martial Arts.

Bellator 41 Plays

Amount Staked: 5.00 units

Amount Returned: 8.15 units

Profit: +3.15 units

5 units on a parlay of Joe Warren and Particio Freire at -160 to win 3.15 units

Progress so far...

UFC Fight Night: Seattle: +40.00 units (11/14 successful bets)
Bellator 38: +1.9 units (1/1 succesful bets)
Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley: +5.47 units (2/5 successful bets)
Bellator 40: +1.7 units (1/1 succesful bets)
Bellator 41: +3.15 units (1/1 succesful bets)

Progress since March 26, 2011: +52.22 units

[Ladle]

Finally getting round to posting these. Good luck, everyone.

UFC 129 Plays

10 units on Lyoto Machida by TKO or decision at -140 to win 7.14 units

Hedged with...

1.93 units on Randy Couture by decision at +518 to win 10 units

In conjunction with...

0.5 units on Lyoto Machida wins SUB of the Night at +1450 to win 7.3 units

Machida has a profound ability to jump in and out with clean, hard, accurate strikes that other fighters at the top of the division simply don't have. Unfortunately for Couture, his upper body movement and stand-up skills aren't anywhere near good enough to counteract that. Also, most of the guys who have hurt Randy standing have exploited the holes in his striking defense and hit him on the counter. When you're fighting someone who specializes in parrying and countering, that's a real problem. Compound that with the fact that Couture's chin can't hold up to punishment anymore, and I think the most likely outcome is a swift knockout.

Obviously I concede that there's a possibility Randy will be able to bring the fight to where he's strongest, but I don't think he'll be able to sustain any kind of control. The important thing to remember is that there's not a huge disparity in clinch ability in this fight. In fact, Machida has had so much success against physically larger guys at 205 because of his clinch skills. Not only is he surprisingly strong from that position, he's also incredibly fluid. I'm not saying Machida will have an advantage in the clinch, but Couture isn't going to be able to manhandle him like he has done with other opponents. Furthermore, if Randy is able to secure a takedown, is it realistic to assume that he's going to be able to hold Machida down? Is Couture going to inflict any notable damage from guard? I don't think so.

With all of that said, you're probably wondering why I even bothered hedging with Couture by decision. Three reasons: 1) MMA judging absolutely sucks and Machida's style of fighting isn't conducive to winning decisions. 2) Couture is still legitimately good at what he does, and in spite of all the criticism I throw at him, he's proven me wrong before. 3) I honestly believe that Couture can't win this fight any other way than decision. The decent odds on offer meant that I could use it as a hedge for a fairly small cost, but achieve almost absolute security in the process.

If Machida ends up submitting Couture (which is decidedly unlikely, but possible), I have my play on Machida wins SotN to cover myself somewhat. Although there's plenty of potential for submission finishes on this card, I feel pretty confident that they'd give the reward to Machida (at least as a co-winner) on the basis that it would be the submission which essentially retired Couture.

10 units on Jason Brilz at +110 to win 11 units

Hedged with...

4.8 units on Vladimir Matyushenko by decision at +208 to win 10 units

I've made my thoughts known about this fight numerous times over the past few weeks. Wrestling-wise, they're fairly evenly matched, but I feel that Brilz is better on the ground. In my opinion, he's more submission-savvy and he's got a craftier, more robust top game. Also, as we saw in the Rogerio Nogueira fight, he's decent off of his back; he showed good hips and was very difficult to hold down and control. Matyushenko has professed that he wants to keep this fight standing, but I'm not sure he even has an advantage in the stand-up; Brilz out-boxed Eliot Marshall (and was subsequently robbed by the judges), whereas Matyushenko had to use his wrestling to get the edge over Marshall in their fight.

It'll probably be a fairly close contest, but Brilz has the deeper toolbox in my opinion. If the fight mostly stays standing, I think Brilz can eek out an ugly decision. If Brilz can take Matyushenko down, I think he can use his staunch top game to keep him there and do some damage. If Matyushenko can take Brilz down (though he said that wasn't his plan), I'm confident Brilz has the hips to get back up to his feet.

The decision to hedge with Matyushenko by decision was three-fold. Firstly, even though I favour Brilz, this is still likely to be a close fight. That leads me into my second reason: close fights are very susceptible to poor scoring, and Brilz has a history of getting the short end of the stick in decisions. Thirdly, I don't believe Matyushenko can finish Brilz. Vlad isn't a particularly powerful puncher and his ground and pound isn't anything to write home about unless you're Alexandre Ferreira.

0.05 units on Jason Brilz wins SUB of the Night +3800 to win 1.9 units

Good odds and Brilz has been working on his submissions. 'Nuff said.

10 units on Nate Diaz at +108 to win 10.8 units

Hedged with...

1.82 units on Rory MacDonald by decision at +550 to win 10 units

While I favour Diaz slightly in this fight, this is a hedge which I really wish I could have played the other way around. Unfortunately, bet limits on Paddy Power prevented me from putting much money on MacDonald by decision. Pretty tragic, because +550 is an absolutely gorgeous line.

While MacDonald is ostensibly a great prospect, I'm skeptical about how his top game is going to match up against Diaz's bottom game. Diaz has a mighty slick, mighty quick triangle which has claimed some very high level victims over the years (Alvin Robinson; Kurt Pellegrino), and I'm not sure if MacDonald is a savvy enough grappler to stay out of it. Obviously there's a chance that MacDonald will keep the fight standing, but even then, I'm dubious of how he's going to cope with Diaz's aggression and style of striking.

The one thing I do feel fairly certain of is that MacDonald isn't going to finish Diaz, hence the hedge. Nate is too smart on the ground, and too resilient standing up.

2 units on Claude Patrick at -160 to win 1.26 units

3 units on Claude Patrick at -140 2.14 units

I feel like the bookies are really overlooking Patrick because of Roberts' flashy wins lately. Roberts has always been a decent grappler coming up, and is developing his game with Cesar Gracie, but he's not going to be a title contender. He gassed quite badly against Forrest Petz and his stand-up is extremely rudimentary right now.

As for Patrick, I feel like he's better at everything. He demolished Ricardo Funch and made a fairly decent welterweight in James Wilks look pretty much helpless. While Roberts is an obvious step up from those guys, he's been taken down in all of his recent fights, and has only won because he's been facing notably inferior grapplers. Patrick doesn't fit that mould.

With all of that in mind, I see absolutely no reason why Patrick can't be successful with his swanky clinch takedowns. From there, I'm confident that Patrick is defensively sound enough to avoid falling into the same traps that Guymon and Soto did. I think the most likely outcome is a unanimous decision for Patrick, characterised by superior clinch work and positional dominance. Wouldn't be surprised to see him smash Roberts in the stand-up, though.

2 units on Jake Ellenberger at -165 to win 1.22 units

People are wary of betting on Ellenberger because of his last performance, but it's important to remember that Rocha was a pretty nasty style match-up for him. Ellenberger couldn't use his wrestling with any confidence because Rocha is immensely dangerous off of his back, and Ellenberger was hesitant to engage Rocha in the stand-up out of the fear of being taken down himself (which would have probably spelled disaster).

Pierson is a fighter with entirely different dimensions, and in general a much more favourable opponent for Ellenberger. That said, he still represents a few challenges, most notably in the stand-up; I think he's a better technical striker than Jake and that GSP-esque jab of his is probably going to land more than a couple of times. It's for that reason that I think Ellenberger's best course of action - at least while Pierson is fresh - is to take him down. While Pierson is a decent 'rassler himself, I don't think he's good enough to shut down Ellenberger's shots consistently. Considering Pierson slowed down after one round of simply beating up Matt Riddle, I think fighting off of his back and defending the takedown will probably tire him out fairly quickly. Following that, I don't think Ellenberger will have too much trouble maintaining control en route to a decision win, or perhaps a late stoppage.

Finally, getting my Vaughany on. An arb:

20 units on Bocek/Henderson goes the distance at +110 to win 22 units

18.2 units on Bocek/Henderson doesn't go the distance at +110 to win 20 units

[Vaughany]

Finally getting round to posting these. Good luck, everyone.

UFC 129 Plays

10 units on Lyoto Machida by TKO or decision at -140 to win 7.14 units

Hedged with...

1.93 units on Randy Couture by decision at +518 to win 10 units

In conjunction with...

0.5 units on Lyoto Machida wins SUB of the Night at +1450 to win 7.3 units

Machida has a profound ability to jump in and out with clean, hard, accurate strikes that other fighters at the top of the division simply don't have. Unfortunately for Couture, his upper body movement and stand-up skills aren't anywhere near good enough to counteract that. Also, most of the guys who have hurt Randy standing have exploited the holes in his striking defense and hit him on the counter. When you're fighting someone who specializes in parrying and countering, that's a real problem. Compound that with the fact that Couture's chin can't hold up to punishment anymore, and I think the most likely outcome is a swift knockout.

Obviously I concede that there's a possibility Randy will be able to bring the fight to where he's strongest, but I don't think he'll be able to sustain any kind of control. The important thing to remember is that there's not a huge disparity in clinch ability in this fight. In fact, Machida has had so much success against physically larger guys at 205 because of his clinch skills. Not only is he surprisingly strong from that position, he's also incredibly fluid. I'm not saying Machida will have an advantage in the clinch, but Couture isn't going to be able to manhandle him like he has done with other opponents. Furthermore, if Randy is able to secure a takedown, is it realistic to assume that he's going to be able to hold Machida down? Is Couture going to inflict any notable damage from guard? I don't think so.

With all of that said, you're probably wondering why I even bothered hedging with Couture by decision. Three reasons: 1) MMA judging absolutely sucks and Machida's style of fighting isn't conducive to winning decisions. 2) Couture is still legitimately good at what he does, and in spite of all the criticism I throw at him, he's proven me wrong before. 3) I honestly believe that Couture can't win this fight any other way than decision. The decent odds on offer meant that I could use it as a hedge for a fairly small cost, but achieve almost absolute security in the process.

If Machida ends up submitting Couture (which is decidedly unlikely, but possible), I have my play on Machida wins SotN to cover myself somewhat. Although there's plenty of potential for submission finishes on this card, I feel pretty confident that they'd give the reward to Machida (at least as a co-winner) on the basis that it would be the submission which essentially retired Couture.

10 units on Jason Brilz at +110 to win 11 units

Hedged with...

4.8 units on Vladimir Matyushenko by decision at +208 to win 10 units

I've made my thoughts known about this fight numerous times over the past few weeks. Wrestling-wise, they're fairly evenly matched, but I feel that Brilz is better on the ground. In my opinion, he's more submission-savvy and he's got a craftier, more robust top game. Also, as we saw in the Rogerio Nogueira fight, he's decent off of his back; he showed good hips and was very difficult to hold down and control. Matyushenko has professed that he wants to keep this fight standing, but I'm not sure he even has an advantage in the stand-up; Brilz out-boxed Eliot Marshall (and was subsequently robbed by the judges), whereas Matyushenko had to use his wrestling to get the edge over Marshall in their fight.

It'll probably be a fairly close contest, but Brilz has the deeper toolbox in my opinion. If the fight mostly stays standing, I think Brilz can eek out an ugly decision. If Brilz can take Matyushenko down, I think he can use his staunch top game to keep him there and do some damage. If Matyushenko can take Brilz down (though he said that wasn't his plan), I'm confident Brilz has the hips to get back up to his feet.

The decision to hedge with Matyushenko by decision was three-fold. Firstly, even though I favour Brilz, this is still likely to be a close fight. That leads me into my second reason: close fights are very susceptible to poor scoring, and Brilz has a history of getting the short end of the stick in decisions. Thirdly, I don't believe Matyushenko can finish Brilz. Vlad isn't a particularly powerful puncher and his ground and pound isn't anything to write home about unless you're Alexandre Ferreira.

0.05 units on Jason Brilz wins SUB of the Night +3800 to win 1.9 units

Good odds and Brilz has been working on his submissions. 'Nuff said.

10 units on Nate Diaz at +108 to win 10.8 units

Hedged with...

1.82 units on Rory MacDonald by decision at +550 to win 10 units

While I favour Diaz slightly in this fight, this is a hedge which I really wish I could have played the other way around. Unfortunately, bet limits on Paddy Power prevented me from putting much money on MacDonald by decision. Pretty tragic, because +550 is an absolutely gorgeous line.

While MacDonald is ostensibly a great prospect, I'm skeptical about how his top game is going to match up against Diaz's bottom game. Diaz has a mighty slick, mighty quick triangle which has claimed some very high level victims over the years (Alvin Robinson; Kurt Pellegrino), and I'm not sure if MacDonald is a savvy enough grappler to stay out of it. Obviously there's a chance that MacDonald will keep the fight standing, but even then, I'm dubious of how he's going to cope with Diaz's aggression and style of striking.

The one thing I do feel fairly certain of is that MacDonald isn't going to finish Diaz, hence the hedge. Nate is too smart on the ground, and too resilient standing up.

2 units on Claude Patrick at -160 to win 1.26 units

3 units on Claude Patrick at -140 2.14 units

I feel like the bookies are really overlooking Patrick because of Roberts' flashy wins lately. Roberts has always been a decent grappler coming up, and is developing his game with Cesar Gracie, but he's not going to be a title contender. He gassed quite badly against Forrest Petz and his stand-up is extremely rudimentary right now.

As Patrick, I feel like he's better at everything. He demolished Ricardo Funch and made a fairly decent welterweight in James Wilks look pretty much helpless. While Roberts is an obvious step up from those guys, he's been taken down in all of his recent fights, and has only won because he's been facing notably inferior grapplers. Patrick doesn't fit that mould.

With all of that in mind, I see absolutely no reason why Patrick can't be successful with his swanky clinch takedowns. From there, I'm confident that Patrick is defensively sound enough to avoid falling into the same traps that Guymon and Soto did. I think the most likely outcome is a unanimous decision for Patrick, characterised by superior clinch work and positional dominance. Wouldn't be surprised to see him smash Roberts in the stand-up, though.

2 units on Jake Ellenberger at -165 to win 1.22 units

People are wary of betting on Ellenberger because of his last performance, but it's important to remember that Rocha was a pretty nasty style match-up for him. Ellenberger couldn't use his wrestling with any confidence because Rocha is immensely dangerous off of his back, and Ellenberger was hesitant to engage Rocha in the stand-up out of the fear of being taken down himself (which would have probably spelled disaster).

Pierson is a fighter with entirely different dimensions, and in general a much more favourable opponent for Ellenberger. That said, he still represents a few challenges, most notably in the stand-up; I think he's a better technical striker than Jake and that GSP-esque jab of his is probably going to land more than a couple of times. It's for that reason that I think Ellenberger's best course of action - at least while Pierson is fresh - is to take him down. While Pierson is a decent 'rassler himself, I don't think he's good enough to shut down Ellenberger's shots consistently. Considering Pierson slowed down after one round of simply beating up Matt Riddle, I think fighting off of his back and defending the takedown will probably tire him out fairly quickly. Following that, I don't think Ellenberger will have too much trouble maintaining control en route to a decision win, or perhaps a late stoppage.

Finally, getting my Vaughany on. An arb:

20 units on Bocek/Henderson goes the distance at +110 to win 22 units

18.2 units on Bocek/Henderson doesn't go the distance at +110 to win 20 units

Great picks/hedges again bro
And I've got same arb with Bocek/Henderson as well except not as profitable as got fight to distance at Evens and not distance +110 and a quarter of ur stakes as well due to the bet limits

[Ladle]

Great picks/hedges again bro
And I've got same arb with Bocek/Henderson as well except not as profitable as got fight to distance at Evens and not distance +110 and a quarter of ur stakes as well due to the bet limits

Thank you bro. Hopefully it's a profitable night for us both.

Bet limits definitely suck. I really wanted to go big on MacDonald by decision and hedge it with Diaz to win outright, but the limit was too low to make it profitable. Really annoying, because that could have potentially netted about 50 units for a 10 unit play.

[aznufcguy]

Good luck! I like your picks! Ive got ellengrrber rory bocek straight up too