Vaughany's MMA Picks...

**BIGDAY** · 12-21-11, 08:59 PM

Love Cowboy against Diaz. He will pressure Diaz all fight long. Diaz would love to pick his punches in a slower paced fight IMO. Not a style the Cerrone brings. GL

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-21-11, 11:00 PM

What book v?

**Vaughany** · 12-22-11, 03:19 AM

Skybet

**Vaughany** · 12-22-11, 10:09 AM

Adding:

Parlay (double): 6.382 units on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance (-313), & Overeem/Lesnar Won't Start Round 3 (-175) to win 6.851 units.

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-22-11, 11:50 AM

Damn, Castillo came out as a favorite.

**Vaughany** · 12-22-11, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Damn, Castillo came out as a favorite.

ha yeah, I expected that Kalikas would bring him out as favourite if he released but thought we had a chance with 5dimes/sportbet

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-22-11, 11:55 AM

I might throw a little on Castillo on those lines. If Roller took down Njoukani, then Castillo should have a similar chance

**Vaughany** · 12-22-11, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

I might throw a little on Castillo on those lines. If Roller took down Njoukani, then Castillo should have a similar chance

Yeah but Roller is better than Castillo in scrambles and more aggressive with submissions. Although I have no doubt that Castillo can take him down, Im just not overly confident in him taking advantage of Njokuani's tendency to give up his back - Castillo seems to prefer to smother his opponent and work GnP rather than take too many chances. I've done a more detailed write-up on this one so will post it it later on

**Vaughany** · 12-22-11, 12:05 PM

+160 now

**gabe** · 12-22-11, 12:55 PM

Castillo via decision (most likely outcome) or Nijoskdsojohani via KO

**Vaughany** · 12-23-11, 11:33 AM

Urijah Faber shaves off trademark hair for sister http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOhCl...&feature=share

**Vaughany** · 12-23-11, 01:41 PM

UFC on FOX 2 play:

25 units on Evans at -145 to win 17.241 units.

Evans TKO or decision for me!

**Beelzebubzy** · 12-23-11, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

UFC on FOX 2 play:

25 units on Evans at -145 to win 17.241 units.

Evans TKO or decision for me!

Great!! Now all the V tailers are going to follow this and drive the line up

**Vaughany** · 12-23-11, 03:31 PM

ha There is plenty of Rashad hate and Davis hype to counter any chance of that happening!

**Vaughany** · 12-23-11, 03:40 PM

Castillo vs Nkojuani thoughts:

Was going to play Castillo but only at Evens or better. Here are my thoughts on it anyway!...

IMO Castillo needs to follow the blueprint set by Shane Roller (fight between Roller and Njokuani can be seen here http://mma-geeks.com/2011/07/16/anth...-video-wec-48/ ). Granted, that fight was approx’ 18 months ago and Njokuani has undoubtedly been working on his ground game and takedown defence, however, we haven’t really had a chance to see if he has actually progressed in those aspects due to the type of fighters he has faced since that loss. All four of his opponents since Roller have been predominantly stand-up oriented fighters – Jewtuszko, Faalototo, Barboza, & Winner. For these kind of fights, there wasn’t the added need to concentrate more on grappling as Njokuani could be confident that his opponent would engage (predominatly) in a stand-up battle. Moreover, even if they did want to take him down as was the case with Faalototo, Nkokuani could be confident enough in his takedown defence ability against somebody like Faalototo who isn’t a high-level grappler or at least near the level of somebody like Roller. With this in mind, I have to question whether Njokuani’s grappling has improved significantly since the Roller fight? Had he had another opponent similar to Roller after that fighter or even after the Jewtuszko fight then perhaps we’d have a better idea as I’m sure he’d of made takedown defence and sub defence a priority in camps. But going against likes of Barboza and Winner, Njokuani knew that sharpening up his striking was the main requirement going in to those fights (and it clearly showed). Should also bear in mind that Barboza did get a couple of takedowns towards the end of rounds which were for the soul purpose of getting a point or two before the rounds ended. Also, Faalototo attempted some takedowns and managed to get one and had a chance to take Njokuani’s back in the first round but was reversed and Njo ended up in Faalototo’s guard. The fact that Njokuani tends to give up his back (as seen against Faalototo and Roller) is something that I would like to think Castillo is fully aware of and will be looking to exploit early. In Njokuani’s MMA career he has only faced two high-level wrestlers (at least in terms of credentials) – Ben Henderson and Shane Roller – the result - both fighters submitted him within two rounds. So Castillo will be the third opponent Njo has faced who has decent wrestling, perhaps not quite at Roller or Henderson’s level, although Castillo has better cardio and is more athletic than the former. However, can we be confident that Castillo will use the right strategy and look to take Njo down, and not “stand and bang” with him? Well, the Shamar Bailey was a fight that Castillo could of easily stood and “showed off his improved striking” as so many fighters like to say. It was a match-up between two wrestlers, and I’m sure Castillo would of felt comfortable in any situation. If there was ever a fight for Castillo to look for a KO standing then it was against a low-tier guy like Bailey. Instead, Castillo took Bailey down within a minute and proceed to GnP his way to victory. This for me makes me reasonably confident that Last Call will be smart and not spend too much time standing with Njokuani – why try and prove your stand-up credentials against one of the Top 3 strikers in the division when you could of done it a couple months before against one of the most mediocre strikers in the division?! Stranger decisions and things have happened though I guess!

So as I said above, I'm not playing Castillo at these current odds, if anything I'd play Njokuani at the current odds of +175. I do think by fight night Njokuani will have got more action and Castillo will end up closer to -130 to -155 range rather than current -175 to -200 range.

**Vaughany** · 12-23-11, 03:47 PM

Adding:

Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units.

**Vaughany** · 12-23-11, 05:15 PM

Diego Nunes vs Manny Gamburyan thoughts:

No play yet but can't knock anybody for playing him at +250 or better. I'm waiting to see what happens with line-movement, I think Nunes will get added to a lot of parlays, and will make a small to moderate play on Gamburyan if he does get closer to +300.

Should Nunes be the favourite against Gamburyan? The answer is yes, but should he be a -300 to -350 favourite?... I have my doubts. Diego Nunes has had three comfortable but not so spectacular wins since being in WEC/UFC and they were against 3 fighters in Province, Rafael Dias and Tyler Toner who are no longer in the UFC. His other two wins were somewhat debatable and not so comfortable split-decisions against tougher opponents than the aforementioned three in Raphael Assuncao and Brown. So what can somebody like Gamburyan take from those fights? I think one of the main things is that Nunes can be taken down. His quite wild striking at times can lead to openings which Ken Flo particularly was able to capitalize on in the second and third rounds as Nunes got more desperate. Nunes was taken down by Province then mounted and had his back taken but Province wasn't well versed enough to take advantage. Province also got a couple of take-downs in the second and third round as well. He was out-wrestled for three rounds by a relentless LC Davis (also now cut), he almost got finished in the first by Mike Brown and Brown got a couple of takedowns during the fight and similarly to the Assuncao fight some thought he didnt deserve the decision. And most recently Ken Flo out wrestled him to steal the second and third rounds. So Cole Province, LC Davis, Assuncao, Mike Brown, and Kenny Florian all had some varying success (even if it didn't always lead to dominant positions) in taking Nunes down. On the flipside, Nunes has shown that he is extremely hard to keep down and is decent at scrambling. Should also consider that there is some bad blood going in to this one due to Diego Nunes signing over Gamburyan's head on a poster! Sounds petty but Gamburyan and his crew actually threatened to cut Nunes' finger to teach him a lesson! So with this in mind either or both fighters might not go in with the clearest of heads and might abandon implementing a solid gameplan. This is one thing Im concerned with with the fiery Armenian as I truly think if he used his takedowns he could make this fight very close. Gamburyan is an experienced former LW who not only has high level judo but unlike many judokas he has also added a reasonable wrestling game to his arsenal. Gamburyan got the better of Tyson Griffin in the grappling for majority of his last fight, landing 2 or 3 takedowns/slams. He also has serious power in his hands, being the only person to KO Mike Brown (apart from Aldo's TKO). Even if he does neglect trying to take Nunes down he may still connect with one of his bombs if Nunes throws caution to the wind like he has in previous fights. After-all, Nunes was battered in the first round by Mike Brown and showed great resilience to come back. We shouldn't forget that Gamburyan beat Joe Lauzon and Matt Wiman on TUF and was beating Nate Diaz in the Finale until he dislocated he shoulder. The dislocated shoulder issue is something that should be considered - maybe he'll be cautious of attempting take-downs due to the potential for this to happen again, he had to pull out of their initial scheduled bout a few months ago due to dislocating his shoulder again in training. Gamburyan also has an aggressive submission game which will help him against a fighter like Nunes. Nunes although not having great takedown defence, does have proficient takedowns himself and will look to mix things up. Gamburyan has solid balance from being an elite Judoka and also tends to attempt kimura's and keylocks when opponents look for take-downs, especially when being clinched against the cage (as he showed against Griffin who relinquished takedown attempts twice due to Gamburyan locking on a kimura attempt). I think this fight could certainly end with a flash TKO/KO in the first round due to their aggressive nature and respective power combined with the bad-blood that exists between them. So all-in-all I can totally understand why somebody may see value in playing the more powerful and experienced Gamburyan against the more athletic and resilient Diego Nunes at these current odds.

**gabe** · 12-23-11, 05:32 PM

That's a legit write-up. You's a true gangsta.

**Vaughany** · 12-23-11, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by gabe

That's a legit write-up. You's a true gangsta.

Have u pulled the trigger on Manny yet or waiting as well? BTW am I right in thinking that Killian is Armenian?!

**Jordan23** · 12-23-11, 07:58 PM

I love the Evans play, honestly I do. I feel like Rashad has a decisive quickness advantage and an ability to change levels in which Phil hasn't shown yet in MMA. Phil has had a lot of time off so hopefully we'll see an improved Davis when they fight.

**caveira** · 12-25-11, 09:25 AM

Very nice pick on Evans, i think the same, Evans by Tko or decision.

**KushMoney** · 12-25-11, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Castillo vs Nkojuani thoughts:

Was going to play Castillo but only at Evens or better. Here are my thoughts on it anyway!...

IMO Castillo needs to follow the blueprint set by Shane Roller (fight between Roller and Njokuani can be seen here http://mma-geeks.com/2011/07/16/anth...-video-wec-48/ ). Granted, that fight was approx’ 18 months ago and Njokuani has undoubtedly been working on his ground game and takedown defence, however, we haven’t really had a chance to see if he has actually progressed in those aspects due to the type of fighters he has faced since that loss. All four of his opponents since Roller have been predominantly stand-up oriented fighters – Jewtuszko, Faalototo, Barboza, & Winner. For these kind of fights, there wasn’t the added need to concentrate more on grappling as Njokuani could be confident that his opponent would engage (predominatly) in a stand-up battle. Moreover, even if they did want to take him down as was the case with Faalototo, Nkokuani could be confident enough in his takedown defence ability against somebody like Faalototo who isn’t a high-level grappler or at least near the level of somebody like Roller. With this in mind, I have to question whether Njokuani’s grappling has improved significantly since the Roller fight? Had he had another opponent similar to Roller after that fighter or even after the Jewtuszko fight then perhaps we’d have a better idea as I’m sure he’d of made takedown defence and sub defence a priority in camps. But going against likes of Barboza and Winner, Njokuani knew that sharpening up his striking was the main requirement going in to those fights (and it clearly showed). Should also bear in mind that Barboza did get a couple of takedowns towards the end of rounds which were for the soul purpose of getting a point or two before the rounds ended. Also, Faalototo attempted some takedowns and managed to get one and had a chance to take Njokuani’s back in the first round but was reversed and Njo ended up in Faalototo’s guard. The fact that Njokuani tends to give up his back (as seen against Faalototo and Roller) is something that I would like to think Castillo is fully aware of and will be looking to exploit early. In Njokuani’s MMA career he has only faced two high-level wrestlers (at least in terms of credentials) – Ben Henderson and Shane Roller – the result - both fighters submitted him within two rounds. So Castillo will be the third opponent Njo has faced who has decent wrestling, perhaps not quite at Roller or Henderson’s level, although Castillo has better cardio and is more athletic than the former. However, can we be confident that Castillo will use the right strategy and look to take Njo down, and not “stand and bang” with him? Well, the Shamar Bailey was a fight that Castillo could of easily stood and “showed off his improved striking” as so many fighters like to say. It was a match-up between two wrestlers, and I’m sure Castillo would of felt comfortable in any situation. If there was ever a fight for Castillo to look for a KO standing then it was against a low-tier guy like Bailey. Instead, Castillo took Bailey down within a minute and proceed to GnP his way to victory. This for me makes me reasonably confident that Last Call will be smart and not spend too much time standing with Njokuani – why try and prove your stand-up credentials against one of the Top 3 strikers in the division when you could of done it a couple months before against one of the most mediocre strikers in the division?! Stranger decisions and things have happened though I guess!

So as I said above, I'm not playing Castillo at these current odds, if anything I'd play Njokuani at the current odds of +175. I do think by fight night Njokuani will have got more action and Castillo will end up closer to -130 to -155 range rather than current -175 to -200 range.

Nkojuani at moneyline is a great play.

Nkojuani via decision and inside the distance 1* worth the props. also to add extra winnings.

**Vaughany** · 12-25-11, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by KushMoney

Nkojuani at moneyline is a great play.

Nkojuani via decision and inside the distance 1* worth the props. also to add extra winnings.

Njokuani isnt winning by submission so I wouldnt play inside distance when you'll be able to get him by TKO/KO.

**gabe** · 12-25-11, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Have u pulled the trigger on Manny yet or waiting as well? BTW am I right in thinking that Killian is Armenian?!

No, the lines for the untelevised prelims are not up for me yet... and yes, it is.

**Vaughany** · 12-26-11, 02:09 PM

Atencio and Mir breakdown (well Mir does!) Nam Phan vs Hettes...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S34j880dzKo&feature=player_embedded

**Vaughany** · 12-26-11, 05:11 PM

Mir predicting Cerrone vs Diaz... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qzc1O-KxEoU

Fitch Hendricks... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_CJVrLBfsU

Gustafsson/Vlad... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdU4dv2knvs

**Vaughany** · 12-26-11, 05:24 PM

Both Mir and Atencio picking Vlad to beat Gustafsson...and both picking Diaz/Cerrone to be FOTN

**Vaughany** · 12-26-11, 05:28 PM

And Lesnar/Overeem prediction... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hR11_...1&feature=plcp

**sideloaded** · 12-27-11, 03:11 AM

Frank Mir is such a fuking hamburger

**Vaughany** · 12-27-11, 04:50 AM

Dana White blog UFC 141, some great behind scenes footage of UFC 140...looks like KSoz has retired from MMA after tht loss...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=damQO9amOFU&feature=player_embedded

**Vaughany** · 12-27-11, 05:04 AM

Summary of UFC 141 plays so far:

2.395 units on Overeem/Lesnar to End by TKO/KO at -187.5 to win 1.277 units;

1.547 units on Overeem/Lesnar to Be Under 1.5 Rounds at -120 to win 1.289 units;

0.466 units on Overeem to Win in Round 1 at +275 to win 1.282 units.

Parlay: 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units;

12.368 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or DQ at +175 to win 21.644 units;

6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +175 to win 11.263 units;

6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +161 to win 10.362 units;

Parlay: 0.644 units on Melendez (-310), Fitch (-220), Overeem Inside the Distance (-123), & Aldo (-245) to win 2.517 units;

Parlay: 6.394 units on Ebersole/Patrick to Start Round 2 (-470), Not Ortiz by Submission (-4100), Jones/Machida to Start Round 2 (-315), & Overeem/Lesnar to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 5.804 units;

Parlay (double): 6.382 units on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance (-313), & Overeem/Lesnar Won't Start Round 3 (-175) to win 6.851 units;

Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units;

4 units on Cerrone by TKO or Decision at +125 to win 5 units;

6 units on Nam Phan by TKO or Decision at -120 to win 5 units;

11.599 units on Ross Pearson at -180 to win 6.444 units.

**Vaughany** · 12-28-11, 05:41 PM

Cerrone Diaz Staredown.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCbbx...&feature=share

**GunShard** · 12-29-11, 11:05 PM

I don't know why Diaz is so hateful to his competitors.

**Vaughany** · 12-30-11, 05:06 AM

Forrest Griffin mentions that bookmakers have caught up and don't make same mistakes as they did 4 years ago when he used to bet on MMA!... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6fmp...feature=relmfu

**Vaughany** · 12-30-11, 01:02 PM

Summary of UFC 141 plays:

2.395 units on Overeem/Lesnar to End by TKO/KO at -187.5 to win 1.277 units;

1.547 units on Overeem/Lesnar to Be Under 1.5 Rounds at -120 to win 1.289 units;

0.466 units on Overeem to Win in Round 1 at +275 to win 1.282 units.

Parlay: 6.437 units on Overeem Inside the Distance (-123) & Aldo (-245) to win 9.995 units;

12.368 units on Overeem by TKO/KO or DQ at +175 to win 21.644 units;

2.5 units on Overeem Submission of the Night at +1000 to win 25 units;

6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +175 to win 11.263 units;

6.436 units on Lesnar Inside the Distance at +161 to win 10.362 units;

Parlay: 0.644 units on Melendez (-310), Fitch (-220), Overeem Inside the Distance (-123), & Aldo (-245) to win 2.517 units;

Parlay: 6.394 units on Ebersole/Patrick to Start Round 2 (-470), Not Ortiz by Submission (-4100), Jones/Machida to Start Round 2 (-315), & Overeem/Lesnar to Not Go the Distance (-600) to win 5.804 units;

Parlay (double): 6.382 units on Not Cerrone Inside the Distance (-313), & Overeem/Lesnar Won't Start Round 3 (-175) to win 6.851 units;

Parlay: 6.407 units on Volkmann (-225), Not Hendricks by Submission (-1570), Overeem/Lesnar to Not Start Round 4 (-440), & Aldo (-220) to win 11.165 units;

4 units on Cerrone by TKO or Decision at +125 to win 5 units;

1.002 units on Cerrone/Diaz FOTN at +240 to win 2.405 units;

19 units on Cerrone/Diaz FOTN at +225 to win 42.75 units;

5 units on Gustafsson by TKO/KO at +150 to win 7.5 units;

2.35 units on Not Njokuani by Submission (-4025), Not Gustafsson by TKO/KO (-119), Not Hendricks (-1675), & Evans (-155) to win 5.377 units.

6 units on Nam Phan by TKO or Decision at -120 to win 5 units;

0.3 units on Hettes Submission of the Night at +2000 to win 6 units;

11.599 units on Ross Pearson at -180 to win 6.444 units;

1.27 units on Pearson by Decision at +122 to win 1.549 units;

0.728 units on Pearson/Assuncao to Not Go the Distance at +175 to win 1.274 units;

Parlay: 3.22 units on Stungun/Pierson Over 1.5 Rounds (-180), Not Njokuani by Submission (-4025), & Not Hendricks by Submission (-1675) to win 2.22 units;

1 unit on Castillo by Decision at +237 to win 2.37 units;

1.04 units on Castillo/Njokuani to Not Go the Distance at +125 to win 1.275 units;

0.229 units on Castillo by Submission at +600 to win 1.374 units;

0.062 units on Fitch SOTN at +3000 to win 1.86 units;

0.062 units on Gustafsson SOTN at +2500 to win 1.55 units;

0.1 units on Nunes/Gamburyan to End in Round 1 at +350 to win 0.3 units.

Going big on Cerrone/Diaz Fight of the Night, if that doesn't hit then I'm gonna be praying for an Overeem 1st round finish! Have got quite a lot of arbs on as back-up as well. Including Riddle at +115 (opener on Boylesports) arbed with Ramos at +124 which will net me 5.697 units if Riddle wins, or 0.657 units if Ramos wins. As an extreme back-up I have Overeem/Lesnar to go the distance at +1000 and not distance at -700 = 14.987 units if it does go distance or overall stake back if it doesn't. Then also will make 5.156 units if the fight goes the distance (+110), or 0.678 units if it doesn't go the distance (+120). Plus another 1.8 units if Cerrone wins by decision at +200 arbed with Not Cerrone by Decision at -150 (0.5 units if he doesn't win by decision).