People on here actually meet in person?
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Adding:
2.5 units on Loveland at -130 to win 1.923 units;
2.5 units on Assuncao at -130 to win 1.923 units.Comment -
Just wondering...why do you like Loveland?Comment -
like both of those plays vaughn. I could see both lines closing at -150. I'm expecting most of the public to back Jabouin so we could see a lot of movement both ways on that one.Comment -
I like Loveland in this fight too...I think he is the better grappler and thought he did pretty good against Benavidez. Jabouin will probably gas + it's his 1st fight @ 135.Comment -
not much movement at the line, unusualComment -
I think Tyler Toner is as good if not better striker than Jabouin and Loveland did well standing and out-grappled him to a decision. As long as he uses his wrestling Loveland should be able to steal rounds from Jabouin. Lines have changed in my favour as I expected - Loveland from -136 to -151 on sportbet and Assuncao from -141 to -161.Comment -
So pissed I missed the opener on loveland... Hes -175 at 5dimes now! Work ruins everything...
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Adding:
Parlay: 6.053 units on P.Thiago, Not Schaub by Submission, & Anderson Silva/Okami Starts Rnd 2 to win 3.595 units.Comment -
Adding:
5.781 units on Griffin/Shogun to Go the Distance at +137.5 to win 7.949 units;
hedged with:
3.75 units on Shogun by TKO/KO at +155 to win 5.812 units.
So for above plays will make 4.199 units if fight goes distance, 0.031 units if Shogun wins by TKO/KO. Also have a risk-free arb with 1.839 units on Shogun by Decision at +450 arbed with Not Shogun by decision at -305. Will make 2.576 units if Shogun does win by decision and 0.03 units if he doesn't win by decision. Both these plays are to act as hedges to Shogun KO of the Night.Comment -
Adding:
Parlay: 10 units on P.Thiago (-450), Palhares (-275), & Munoz (-188) to win 15.556 units.Comment -
Is David Mitchell a total scrub? -450 Thiago is really really steep.Comment -
Agree it's pretty steep, but Mitchell seems to be weak in all areas compared to Thiago (striking, wrestling, subs).
Thiago's losses are to great competition, so I just don't see how he loses this fight. I don't think Mitchell is a can, but he's not better than Thiago at anything.Comment -
I never said he was weak at subs, just that he's weak compared to Paulo.
Paulo is a bad dude. I think they aura is starting to wear off for him, but he's only looked poor against strong competition at 170. Mitchell is no scrub, but he's no danger that I can see to Thiago.Comment -
Mitchell's main strength is his submission game. He's very aggressive in looking for subs and will often give up position. I've read that he says he was very nervous and too eager to finish Waldburger early which is why he lost the fight, but Waldburger won every round. I find it hard to imagine Mitchell subbing P.Thiago. Although Thiago has shown some deficiencies in previous fights, especially cardio wise, he has also shown great resilience and sub defence. Although Volkmann is now at 155, Thiago was able to neutralise his wrestling and even take Volkmann down with trips on the inside. I cant see him losing in front of his BOPE comrades!Comment -
Forgot to make my main point above!... Following on from P.Thiago being difficult to submit, the fact that Mitchell doesn't mind being on his back and attacking from his guard is not good for him if it goes the distance. The WarMachine fight and Waldburger fight showed that he wont put up much resistance to a takedown attempt and will look to control from his back instead with mission control and attack with subs. Luckily in the Koppenhaver fight it worked out okay as he got the split (though could easily of gone the other way). Against a high-level grappler like Paulo Thiago it is a riskier game to play.Comment -
I'm going to have to watch Mitchell's fights again. I'm drawing a total ******* blank on this guy.
I've never been particulary impressed with Thiago skills. And -450 seems a tad too high. But Ill take another look.Comment -
Damn V, you're going ape-shit for 134 - so many plays!!!!
Well I've lost the past three events, and therefore need some winners man. Going back to my roots and just betting str8 money lines / win - lose.
Looking at the card I really like big str8 plays Palhares and Schaub.
I'm sure you have breakdowns in other threads, but I don't have the time to search around unfortunately, nor do I know how to.
I was wondering if you could provide me with your breakdown for these fights and how much you like those guys to win, or link me to where you've already broken it down.
Schaub / big nog: Initially I wasn't thrilled on betting this fight at all, especially on schaub, but I realized this is my old school pride bias - I LOVE big nog. I have trouble betting against guys I am huge fans of, but I've realized I need to put emotions aside and go with reality. Nog's chin has clearly deteriorated. Even in his ufc wins he was in a war. Scaub hits hard, has great tdd, and I believe he will be just a bit bigger than nog, right? I see nog's best chance as taking it down, obviously, which I don't see happening. Schaub's tdd is solid, and his hands will keep nog away. I'm liking schaub by tko, just as you said. I think nog might do well at first with the stand up, hanging with schaub in the first round. Then he will get overzealous and over confident, and walk right into a nice combo, where schaub will tower over him and pound him out till the ref stops it. I am somewhat afraid tho that schaub will get taken down and then he will be in DEEP shit. Schaub really hasn't fought anyone with great tds (not that nog has great tds, but they're certainly a threat), so his tdd against a great grappler kinda unknown imo, right? He looked SUPERB in the gonzaga fight, but I don't remember gonzago trying to clinch or get a td, I remember him standing there trying to trade like a dumb ass. I've noticed you got Schaub in almost every play, so I"m assuming you REALLLLLLLLLLYYY like him to win, right? What scares you about this fight, and give me you're overall breakdown?
Palhares / dan miller: First and foremost I've never been impressed with D. Miller (no disrespect to the guy). I've paid juice picking against him a couple times, and thinking I'm going to do so here. I actually like the current line and don't think its too pricey. Dan has some pretty weak tdd for a wrestler and I think pahlares can get him down rather easily. I also think dan's hands are quite unimpressive and think pala has this on the feet too. With regard to pure jits, palhares is on another level. I think branch, linhares, and ivan can all roll better than miller, yet palhares subbed them. He looked great against nate before being an idiot. Any B+ level fighter Miller has fought he has lost to. Lastly I think dan is soft at mw and not that physically strong, where pahla is a physical freak and a bull-dozer. I think palhares is the best grappler dan's faced and will hand him his first sub loss. I am most confident in this fight with regard to a pure prediction, and I'm willing to pay the pricey odds for a str8 play. My main fear is that pala struggles with the tds and dan has surprisingly improved stand up that he uses to pepper and jab pala for 3 rounds with the longer reach (but again, I think pala has an advantage in striking as well)... How much you like this fight and a potential str8 play on? Why are you scared (I'm kinda shocked jesus picked him, although I don't take anyone too seriously on here)? What is your overall breakdown?
Anyways, those are my breakdowns, thanks for taking the time to read this. If you get the time please respond and tell me what you're truly thinking and how you envision these fights playing out / your breakdown. Also, out of all your parlays thus far, which do you like most??? I FINALLY got my 5dimes account up, so I have the ability to do props and parlays now
lol this will either be a good thing or a bad thing in the end lol, I'm nervous about messing around with the props.
I need some winners dude!!! Hook a bruddah up and let's make some gold on saturday. Cheers
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Your strategy of only doing straight up plays may well be the right idea for this card, and I may regret doing so many parlays! However, after this event it will be a year since I started keeping a record, I'm up by at least 300 units so I'm quite happy to finish my "betting year" with my riskiest night of the year! It's either going to be really bad and cut my profits for the year in half or going to add a nice bonus.Damn V, you're going ape-shit for 134 - so many plays!!!!
Well I've lost the past three events, and therefore need some winners man. Going back to my roots and just betting str8 money lines / win - lose.
Looking at the card I really like big str8 plays Palhares and Schaub.
I'm sure you have breakdowns in other threads, but I don't have the time to search around unfortunately, nor do I know how to.
I was wondering if you could provide me with your breakdown for these fights and how much you like those guys to win, or link me to where you've already broken it down.
Schaub / big nog: Initially I wasn't thrilled on betting this fight at all, especially on schaub, but I realized this is my old school pride bias - I LOVE big nog. I have trouble betting against guys I am huge fans of, but I've realized I need to put emotions aside and go with reality. Nog's chin has clearly deteriorated. Even in his ufc wins he was in a war. Scaub hits hard, has great tdd, and I believe he will be just a bit bigger than nog, right? I see nog's best chance as taking it down, obviously, which I don't see happening. Schaub's tdd is solid, and his hands will keep nog away. I'm liking schaub by tko, just as you said. I think nog might do well at first with the stand up, hanging with schaub in the first round. Then he will get overzealous and over confident, and walk right into a nice combo, where schaub will tower over him and pound him out till the ref stops it. I am somewhat afraid tho that schaub will get taken down and then he will be in DEEP shit. Schaub really hasn't fought anyone with great tds (not that nog has great tds, but they're certainly a threat), so his tdd against a great grappler kinda unknown imo, right? He looked SUPERB in the gonzaga fight, but I don't remember gonzago trying to clinch or get a td, I remember him standing there trying to trade like a dumb ass. I've noticed you got Schaub in almost every play, so I"m assuming you REALLLLLLLLLLYYY like him to win, right? What scares you about this fight, and give me you're overall breakdown?
Palhares / dan miller: First and foremost I've never been impressed with D. Miller (no disrespect to the guy). I've paid juice picking against him a couple times, and thinking I'm going to do so here. I actually like the current line and don't think its too pricey. Dan has some pretty weak tdd for a wrestler and I think pahlares can get him down rather easily. I also think dan's hands are quite unimpressive and think pala has this on the feet too. With regard to pure jits, palhares is on another level. I think branch, linhares, and ivan can all roll better than miller, yet palhares subbed them. He looked great against nate before being an idiot. Any B+ level fighter Miller has fought he has lost to. Lastly I think dan is soft at mw and not that physically strong, where pahla is a physical freak and a bull-dozer. I think palhares is the best grappler dan's faced and will hand him his first sub loss. I am most confident in this fight with regard to a pure prediction, and I'm willing to pay the pricey odds for a str8 play. My main fear is that pala struggles with the tds and dan has surprisingly improved stand up that he uses to pepper and jab pala for 3 rounds with the longer reach (but again, I think pala has an advantage in striking as well)... How much you like this fight and a potential str8 play on? Why are you scared (I'm kinda shocked jesus picked him, although I don't take anyone too seriously on here)? What is your overall breakdown?
Anyways, those are my breakdowns, thanks for taking the time to read this. If you get the time please respond and tell me what you're truly thinking and how you envision these fights playing out / your breakdown. Also, out of all your parlays thus far, which do you like most??? I FINALLY got my 5dimes account up, so I have the ability to do props and parlays now lol this will either be a good thing or a bad thing in the end lol, I'm nervous about messing around with the props.
I need some winners dude!!! Hook a bruddah up and let's make some gold on saturday. Cheers
Firstly, my confidence in Schaub stems partly from missing out on Velasquez when he finished Nog last year and from when Mir beat Nog. Both times I wrote a lot about how confident I was in Cain and Mir but both times pussied out and put very small plays on each. After them I vowed to go big on whoever Nog faced next (as long as that opponent was half-decent with some KO power). So now its got to the point where Nog is facing a guy who may not be as well-rounded and as experienced as Mir and Cain, but certainly is as athletic and has equal if not more knockout power then them. Add to that the fact that Nog is coming back from a lengthy lay-off and I dont think I'd be able to live with myself if Schaub wins and I didnt go big on him!
Only way I see Schaub losing this is if he freezes and nerves get the better of him. However, I think the Gonzaga win and Cro-Cop KO has been a huge confidence booster for Schaub and with Jackson and creepy Whittman behind him he should be a good mental state as well as physical. The Cro-Cop fight also for me answered a few questions that I had about Schaub. It showed that he can go three tought rounds and still have knockout power at the end - he clearly has better cardio than most HW fighters. And also that he is more mentally strong than I initially thought, he actually took quite a lot of punishment from Cro-Cop - had his nose busted up from an elbow and got beaten in the clinch. But he battled on and didn't wilt and finished it in style. Of course Nog could catch him, Schaub's defence isn't great, leave his hands down at times, but he should have a speed advantage and he is quite good at setting things up with his jab, especially the double jab.
The nail in the coffin for me is that Dana White has said that he tried to get Nog to retire after the Cain fight. That raises alarms for me when the owner of the company is saying that a fighter shouldnt continue. I think we're in the middle of a phase where the legends of the sport are declining and coming to the end of their careers - they can no longer take the punishment that they used to and are at a disadvantage athletically/physically. We've got these guys like OSP, Mitrione and Schaub coming from football backgrounds who are just physical beasts and can adapt to MMA and soak techniques in like a sponge. We've already seen the end of Liddel and Couture, and I think Big Nog and Matt Hughes might be next up.
Also worried that Schaub just sits behind his jab and ends up taking a decision. Although I've got him straight up in two parlays, I really need him to win by TKO/KO really. Im counting on him taking full advantage of this opportunity and being aggressive. I'll also be adding Schaub quickest TKO/KO or/and Schaub KO of the Night (along with Shogun KO of the Night and Anderson KO of the Night - confident one of those 3 gets it).
With regards to Palhares, I think he's going to dominate Miller personally. You covered it really with what you said. Miller isn't an elite wrestler, and like his brother he is very confident in his BJJ so will not put up much resistance to a takedown attempt. Obviously he may well try and keep it standing against Palhares, but when you are used to just being taken down and working off your back then it can be difficult to adapt to being a fighter who just wants to keep it standing. Was partly the reason I backed Henderson against Jim Miller. He was so confident in his BJJ after the Oliveira sub that he didnt put up much resistance to Hendo's takedowns early on as he was happy to work for submissions (which he nearly got but is always risky against somebody like Hendo with his defensive skills). I also think Miller isnt the biggest MW, he'd be more suited to a 175 division, he is going to struggle with Palhares' strength, and his striking and grappling isnt at the same level as his brother. I guess is only hope is that Palhares gasses out late on, but he's been three rounds with Henderson and Horn before. I'm sure the Maia fight is being used as a template for many people, probably why the fight was -245 to go distance and Palhares by decision is like +110 or something. But in that fight Maia was not relentless with takedowns or sub attempts, he was more interested in showing off his improved stand-up. Palhares strategy should probably be the comlete opposite!Comment -
Vaughany, thanks for those 2 breakdowns. could you breakdown the assuncao fight when you get a chance?Comment -
Adding:
6.446 units on Schaub by TKO/KO at +125 to win 8.057 units;
0.613 units on Loveland by Decision at +220 to win 1.349 units;
0.241 units on Schaub KO of the Night at +600 to win 1.446 units;
0.1 units on Johnny Eduardo by TKO/KO at +800 to win 0.8 units;
0.131 units on P.Thiago by TKO/KO at +1100 to win 1.441 units;
2.324 units on Tavares/Fisher to Go the Distance at -175 to win 1.328 units;
0.153 units on Fisher by TKO/KO at +900 to win 1.377 units;
1.973 units on Palhares/Miller to Go the Distance at -150 to win 1.315 units;
0.942 units on Cane by TKO/KO at +140 to win 1.319 units.Comment -
The more I think about it the more I like Schaub
He caught Gormely and Tuschererererer as they were coming in with uppercuts IIRC. If nog wants to do the same, I am all for it.
Schaubs KOs consist of Madsen, Tuscherer, Gormely, Cro Cop. All average chins but I think better than Nog at this point.
I think the Liddell-chin esque stage of Nog is here, and I want to get on the train before the next line is -400Comment
