Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[kmdubya]

I think the Liddell-chin esque stage of Nog is here, and I want to get on the train before the next line is -400

Best thing to happen to MMA betting was Tito laying out Bader. Now we get a lot more people questioning old fighters and "if they've still got it".

[tommygun]

ha yeah they had a bash in Costa Rica...apparently and quite surprisingly there was a bad case of body odour being omitted from several present which led to complaints from the Rebate and Legends girls that were there

haha i feel sorry for those girls, a bunch of fat old men ogling them all day....care to name names haha?

[Vaughany]

haha i feel sorry for those girls, a bunch of fat old men ogling them all day....care to name names haha?

Wasnt there so dont know, have to check out the players talk section, that's where I saw discussion about it

[Vaughany]

Big Nog's Open work-out...

[GunShard]

Does home advantage help a fighter in MMA?
Many Brazilian fighters in this event in Brazil.

Urijah Faber is probably the best fighter that seems to do well when the event is at his home town Sacramento.

[Chairib]

Does home advantage help a fighter in MMA?
Many Brazilian fighters in this event in Brazil.

Urijah Faber is probably the best fighter that seems to do well when the event is at his home town Sacramento.

bisping's decision gift over Hamil took place in the uk didn't it?

[Vaughany]

bisping's decision gift over Hamil took place in the uk didn't it?

But two American judges gave it to him and the English judge picked Hamil

[Vaughany]

Does home advantage help a fighter in MMA?
Many Brazilian fighters in this event in Brazil.

Urijah Faber is probably the best fighter that seems to do well when the event is at his home town Sacramento.

Far as I'm aware he had 2 wins (Assuncao and Pulver) and 2 losses (Aldo and Brown) when fighting in Sacramento in WEC... not exactly an amazing home record!

And as I've said in another thread, it didnt help Dan Hardy and John Hathaway at UFC 120. In fact the both confirmed after the fights about the home crowd having a negative effect, for Hardy it was because he felt compelled to put on a "show" and be aggressive which meant he got over-zealous and careless, while Hathaway said he just froze because of being main card against an experienced fighter with everybody expecting him to win.

Think it really depends on the character of the fighter with the "home advantage" and opponent's mental state. Check out the Nog video on UFC.com, he says yes its great to have the support but also adds a lot of pressure on his shoulders. Also, while Schaub is the betting favourite, he's going to feel like the underdog when he walks out there as everybody is going to be cheering for Nog.

[rocky mattioli]

v...i tried to send you a p.m....not sure if it worked....let me know if it didn`t....haven`t done i.m. before....

thanks...

[scofflaw]

ALL HAIL scofflaw .. bowl down to me young virgins before I post my picks

I'm here to pick bomb your thread again V. UFC 134 is a huge event for me and the largest amount I've ever bet on an event. The numbers aren't exact and I did some 'close enough' rounding. honestly I do shit load of research on the fights .. and post my predictions for u fks

Schaub straight - 20 to win 9
Schaub inside distance - 15 to win 18
Schaub by TKO - 1.5 to win 1.5
Palhares straight - 11.5 to win 4
Barboza straight - 14 to win 4.25
Griffin straight - 1.5 to win 3
AS by sub - 1.25 to win 11
Cane by decision - 1.25 to win 5

future:
Sonnen straight 20 to win 10

I'll be makin 6 figures an event by the end of the year .. bitches.

[Chairib]

I know Paulo gives some of you guys a big boner so enjoy.

[Chairib]

But two American judges gave it to him and the English judge picked Hamil

That's what the man wants you to believe

[vtipster]

Going to watch this fight!! Go Brazil!!!

[Vaughany]

v...i tried to send you a p.m....not sure if it worked....let me know if it didn`t....haven`t done i.m. before....

thanks...

Might of worked on ur side but Ive had my pm disabled because I gave out my personal email in a message...apparently this is frowned upon by SBR so I cant receive any messages

[Hannibal]

Nog's decline isn't apparent when you watch him hitting those pads. He looks about as crisp as he's ever been...

[Vaughany]

ALL HAIL scofflaw .. bowl down to me young virgins before I post my picks

I'm here to pick bomb your thread again V. UFC 134 is a huge event for me and the largest amount I've ever bet on an event. The numbers aren't exact and I did some 'close enough' rounding. honestly I do shit load of research on the fights .. and post my predictions for u fks

Schaub straight - 20 to win 9
Schaub inside distance - 15 to win 18
Schaub by TKO - 1.5 to win 1.5
Palhares straight - 11.5 to win 4
Barboza straight - 14 to win 4.25
Griffin straight - 1.5 to win 3
AS by sub - 1.25 to win 11
Cane by decision - 1.25 to win 5

future:
Sonnen straight 20 to win 10

I'll be makin 6 figures an event by the end of the year .. bitches.

Ha solid picks...and an even better impersonation of Jesus!

[blumpkin]

the test will be when the pads or schaub start hitting him back.

[Hannibal]

Hopefully... I think most of us have a lot riding on schaub

[rocky mattioli]

Might of worked on ur side but Ive had my pm disabled because I gave out my personal email in a message...apparently this is frowned upon by SBR so I cant receive any messages

that`s fine.......had a resource i wanted to share but i`ve been informed that those types of links are frowned upon....and with the climate in the states regarding copyright infringement litigation,i don`t like posting that type of link on an open forum...

it`s possible you are aware of it anyway ....

[Vaughany]

that`s fine.......had a resource i wanted to share but i`ve been informed that those types of links are frowned upon....and with the climate in the states regarding copyright infringement litigation,i don`t like posting that type of link on an open forum...

it`s possible you are aware of it anyway ....

oh right, maybe you can tell me what it rhymes with?!

You never told me the other site that you post your picks on either?

[rocky mattioli]

oh right, maybe you can tell me what it rhymes with?!

You never told me the other site that you post your picks on either?

that was another reason for the pm..........that was my first attempt at a p.m. on any board and it failed miserably.....

probably a good thing....

[Chong Wizard]

Good luck with the plays Vaughany! Are you using 5-Dimes for all the parlays with fight outcomes? I've also seen you talk about this Paddy site? Do they release props earlier than the other sites?

[Vaughany]

Good luck with the plays Vaughany! Are you using 5-Dimes for all the parlays with fight outcomes? I've also seen you talk about this Paddy site? Do they release props earlier than the other sites?

Cheers Yeah most parlays are with Sportbet (5dimes). Paddypower does release props early for main event and co-main event and then releases props for every other fight on the card a few days before. But I've been limited on there to ridiculously low amounts and so have my beards so don't use them as much now

[Vaughany]

Adding:


3.055 units on Palhares by Submission at +275 to win 8.4 units;


Parlay (double): 0.1 units on Palhares by Submission (+210), & Cane by TKO/KO (+120) to win 0.582 units;


Parlay (double): 0.1 units on Erick Silva by Submission, & Palhares by Submission to win 1 unit.

[99Boxster]

What do you think about this play?

Anderson Silva inside the distance -180 $540 to win $300
Yushin Okami by decision +530 $100 to win $530

[Vaughany]

Big Nog weigh-in pic:



Big Nog when he fought Couture:



Big Nog when he fought Mir:

[Vaughany]

Difference between Miller and Palhares:

[Vaughany]

Loveland when he fought Toner (145lbs):





At weigh-in for 134 (135lbs) looking like a mini Mike Pierce!:

[Nick The Greek]

Big Nog weigh-in pic:



Big Nog when he fought Couture:



Big Nog when he fought Mir:

Definitely not a good sign. He even admitted himself that he rushed his rehab because he didn't want to miss the chance to fight in Brazil.

[more_betterness]

Adding:


3.055 units on Palhares by Submission at +275 to win 8.4 units;


Parlay (double): 0.1 units on Palhares by Submission (+210), & Cane by TKO/KO (+120) to win 0.582 units;


Parlay (double): 0.1 units on Erick Silva by Submission, & Palhares by Submission to win 1 unit.

I won't lie, I was considering dropping a moderate bet on Palhares by decision. Care to convince me otherwise? I'm already starting to lean the other way after watching Palhares go beast mode on Branch's legs again.

[kmdubya]

I won't lie, I was considering dropping a moderate bet on Palhares by decision. Care to convince me otherwise? I'm already starting to lean the other way after watching Palhares go beast mode on Branch's legs again.

Palhares is STRONG. Miller struggled being on the ground with Marquardt, who is not nearly as strong as Palhares.

I will be surprised if this fight does not end with a Palhares submission. Miller has not tapped before, but he has not faced a beast like this.

[more_betterness]

Palhares is STRONG.

That he is..

[The HOFF]

I think Paul Harris will be my only bet for this card, and a significant one at that. I just can't see any way that Dan Miller wins.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Your strategy of only doing straight up plays may well be the right idea for this card, and I may regret doing so many parlays! However, after this event it will be a year since I started keeping a record, I'm up by at least 300 units so I'm quite happy to finish my "betting year" with my riskiest night of the year! It's either going to be really bad and cut my profits for the year in half or going to add a nice bonus.

Firstly, my confidence in Schaub stems partly from missing out on Velasquez when he finished Nog last year and from when Mir beat Nog. Both times I wrote a lot about how confident I was in Cain and Mir but both times pussied out and put very small plays on each. After them I vowed to go big on whoever Nog faced next (as long as that opponent was half-decent with some KO power). So now its got to the point where Nog is facing a guy who may not be as well-rounded and as experienced as Mir and Cain, but certainly is as athletic and has equal if not more knockout power then them. Add to that the fact that Nog is coming back from a lengthy lay-off and I dont think I'd be able to live with myself if Schaub wins and I didnt go big on him!

Only way I see Schaub losing this is if he freezes and nerves get the better of him. However, I think the Gonzaga win and Cro-Cop KO has been a huge confidence booster for Schaub and with Jackson and creepy Whittman behind him he should be a good mental state as well as physical. The Cro-Cop fight also for me answered a few questions that I had about Schaub. It showed that he can go three tought rounds and still have knockout power at the end - he clearly has better cardio than most HW fighters. And also that he is more mentally strong than I initially thought, he actually took quite a lot of punishment from Cro-Cop - had his nose busted up from an elbow and got beaten in the clinch. But he battled on and didn't wilt and finished it in style. Of course Nog could catch him, Schaub's defence isn't great, leave his hands down at times, but he should have a speed advantage and he is quite good at setting things up with his jab, especially the double jab.


The nail in the coffin for me is that Dana White has said that he tried to get Nog to retire after the Cain fight. That raises alarms for me when the owner of the company is saying that a fighter shouldnt continue. I think we're in the middle of a phase where the legends of the sport are declining and coming to the end of their careers - they can no longer take the punishment that they used to and are at a disadvantage athletically/physically. We've got these guys like OSP, Mitrione and Schaub coming from football backgrounds who are just physical beasts and can adapt to MMA and soak techniques in like a sponge. We've already seen the end of Liddel and Couture, and I think Big Nog and Matt Hughes might be next up.

Also worried that Schaub just sits behind his jab and ends up taking a decision. Although I've got him straight up in two parlays, I really need him to win by TKO/KO really. Im counting on him taking full advantage of this opportunity and being aggressive. I'll also be adding Schaub quickest TKO/KO or/and Schaub KO of the Night (along with Shogun KO of the Night and Anderson KO of the Night - confident one of those 3 gets it).


With regards to Palhares, I think he's going to dominate Miller personally. You covered it really with what you said. Miller isn't an elite wrestler, and like his brother he is very confident in his BJJ so will not put up much resistance to a takedown attempt. Obviously he may well try and keep it standing against Palhares, but when you are used to just being taken down and working off your back then it can be difficult to adapt to being a fighter who just wants to keep it standing. Was partly the reason I backed Henderson against Jim Miller. He was so confident in his BJJ after the Oliveira sub that he didnt put up much resistance to Hendo's takedowns early on as he was happy to work for submissions (which he nearly got but is always risky against somebody like Hendo with his defensive skills). I also think Miller isnt the biggest MW, he'd be more suited to a 175 division, he is going to struggle with Palhares' strength, and his striking and grappling isnt at the same level as his brother. I guess is only hope is that Palhares gasses out late on, but he's been three rounds with Henderson and Horn before. I'm sure the Maia fight is being used as a template for many people, probably why the fight was -245 to go distance and Palhares by decision is like +110 or something. But in that fight Maia was not relentless with takedowns or sub attempts, he was more interested in showing off his improved stand-up. Palhares strategy should probably be the comlete opposite!

Hey thanks for the feedback bruddah! Great insight, it helps much.

I've pulled the trigger big on palhares, got around 1300 on him, yikes!

Didn't do a str8 on scaub but got him in a few parlays I'm planning to make.

GL dude, hopefully you'll be coming up huge with all them plays!

[sag3000]

Good luck with all your parlays man! Hopefully you will top off a very good year with lots of profit