Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[rocky mattioli]

i hate being a smug prick(not really),but i think this poll gives us an idea of just how the fan boys that populate some of the major mma sites think....the most anticipated fights of august poll....


Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz (UFC 133)14%.....?????????????????????????


Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (UFC 133)5%

Chad Mendes vs. Rani Yahya (UFC 133)0%



Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle (UFC on Versus 5)5%



Jim Miller vs. Ben Henderson (UFC on Versus 5)12%



Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira (UFC on Versus 5)7%.....???????????????



Pat Curran vs. Marlon Sandro (Bellator 48)1 %.....?????????????????????????????????



Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami (UFC 134)25%



Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio Rua (UFC 134)..25%.....???????????




the lower scores for the excellent lighter weight fights is baffling to me...rua/griffin doesn`t excite me...neither did ortiz/evans....okami/silva?....more so than the other two...how does tito/evans garner more anticipation than miller/ henderson?

but sandro/curran looks like a great fight to me...i was absolutely goosed to see henderson/miller and cerrone/oliveira...seems like the lower weights don`t carry the gravitas of the larger guys even though in most cases they have better all around skillsets(with an exception here and there)....

same as boxing...the bigger guys carry the juice....

always seemed a bit strange to me when you figure that many of the truly great fights have involved guys like pacquaio/the marquez brothers/the recent mares/agbeko/darchinyasn/ perez tourney etc....how many heavyweight fights can truly be called great since lewis/wee-tah-lee?....the super middleweight tourney on showtime was a bit of an exception giving us some great fights involving excellent fighters,but we`re talking 168 pounders.......the ufc hvywt division is showing some life with velasquez and dos santos providing top drawer skills and action...but lesnar`s popularity?......the recent overeem/werdum borefest.....and that reminds why i`m not a fedor hater...the guy was a balls-to-the wall competitor...that`s why many of us looked forward to seeing him fight....he had a full skillset and came to fight every time out...


just an observation...i`m sure some disagree..seems like the "bigger is better" mindset carries over from boxing even if it`s basically more perception than fact......

[Vaughany]

i hate being a smug prick(not really),but i think this poll gives us an idea of just how the fan boys that populate some of the major mma sites think....the most anticipated fights of august poll....


Rashad Evans vs. Tito Ortiz (UFC 133)14%.....?????????????????????????


Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (UFC 133)5%

Chad Mendes vs. Rani Yahya (UFC 133)0%



Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle (UFC on Versus 5)5%



Jim Miller vs. Ben Henderson (UFC on Versus 5)12%



Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira (UFC on Versus 5)7%.....???????????????



Pat Curran vs. Marlon Sandro (Bellator 48)1 %.....?????????????????????????????????



Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami (UFC 134)25%



Forrest Griffin vs. Mauricio Rua (UFC 134)..25%.....???????????




the lower scores for the excellent lighter weight fights is baffling to me...rua/griffin doesn`t excite me...neither did ortiz/evans....okami/silva?....more so than the other two...how does tito/evans garner more anticipation than miller/ henderson?

but sandro/curran looks like a great fight to me...i was absolutely goosed to see henderson/miller and cerrone/oliveira...seems like the lower weights don`t carry the gravitas of the larger guys even though in most cases they have better all around skillsets(with an exception here and there)....

same as boxing...the bigger guys carry the juice....

always seemed a bit strange to me when you figure that many of the truly great fights have involved guys like pacquaio/the marquez brothers/the recent mares/agbeko/darchinyasn/ perez tourney etc....how many heavyweight fights can truly be called great since lewis/wee-tah-lee?....the super middleweight tourney on showtime was a bit of an exception giving us some great fights involving excellent fighters,but we`re talking 168 pounders.......the ufc hvywt division is showing some life with velasquez and dos santos providing top drawer skills and action...but lesnar`s popularity?......the recent overeem/werdum borefest.....and that reminds why i`m not a fedor hater...the guy was a balls-to-the wall competitor...that`s why many of us looked forward to seeing him fight....he had a full skillset and came to fight every time out...


just an observation...i`m sure some disagree..seems like the "bigger is better" mindset carries over from boxing even if it`s basically more perception than fact......

ha yeah that does say quite a lot. I'm same as you, the Miller/Henderson fight was the one I was looking forward to the most, followed by Cerrone/Oliveira. And yes, I guess it's just engrained in society that "bigger is better than smaller" if that makes sense and tht tranfers to sport as well!

BTW, on subject of boxing, do you think Guerrero will decision Maidana comfortably? I've just got Guerrero straight up at -150 and arbed it with Maidana at +186. Risk free 6 units profit if Guerrero wins.

[The HOFF]

Any thoughts on Sandro vs Curran?

[Vaughany]

Any thoughts on Sandro vs Curran?

I see it being a 50/50 fight or there abouts so the +126 on Pinnacle is interesting. But then I'm thinking this most likely goes the distance and is most likely going to be very close, so again your dicing with the judges decision. I guess Curran has good precedence with getting decisions though. I do think Sandro has more chance of finishing inside distance tho, think Curran can only win by decision. Gonna hold off and wait until Saturday, see what happens with the line movement

[The HOFF]

I see it being a 50/50 fight or there abouts so the +126 on Pinnacle is interesting. But then I'm thinking this most likely goes the distance and is most likely going to be very close, so again your dicing with the judges decision. I guess Curran has good precedence with getting decisions though. I do think Sandro has more chance of finishing inside distance tho, think Curran can only win by decision. Gonna hold off and wait until Saturday, see what happens with the line movement

I was kind of thinking the same thing. I see two outcomes: it goes to a close decision or Sandro catches him with a lucky submission.

[spurginobili]

[quote=Vaughany;11056280]Funny Chael interview...

Ha! Chael never disappoints

[rafa martin]

vaughany regards to you and best of luck in your next card,,, came from vacation and will start to check your thread once again...but the arbs made me nuts i keep making mistakes in most of them---pounded volkman last time so nice profit.
did you check out what i told you about??

[Vaughany]

UFC 134 plays:


Parlay: 6.059 units on Not Pearson by Submission, Schaub by TKO/KO, & Not Rua by Submission to win 10.203 units;


6.059 units on Schaub by TKO/KO at +135 to win 8.18 units.

[sag3000]

Man, how many units in total on Schaub by TKO/KO? :P
Liking that other parlay tho!

[Vaughany]

Man, how many units in total on Schaub by TKO/KO? :P
Liking that other parlay tho!

Quite a lot! Got two parlays involving Fight not going distance, and these two plays above on Schaub by TKO/KO. Im happy to risk at least 50 units on Schaub in this fight, will be doing a number of doubles including Schaub, P.THiago, Palhares, Alcantara and Barboza as well.

[rocky mattioli]

i think guerrero`s better technically...but he`s fightuing a bigger man here....maidana`s hot and cold...he beats down ortiz,gives khan a fit and then struggles with demarcus corley....

this is a high profile fight....it will be very dangerous for guerrero...he `s smaller and actually a bit shorter...and after ortiz,it`s worrisome that maidana seems to be able to hurt lefties....

wasn`t there a line posted on this at 5 dimes?...

[rocky mattioli]

i think guerrero`s better technically...but he`s fightuing a bigger man here....maidana`s hot and cold...he beats down ortiz,gives khan a fit and then struggles with demarcus corley....

this is a high profile fight....it will be very dangerous for guerrero...he `s smaller and actually a bit shorter...and after ortiz,it`s worrisome that maidana seems to be able to hurt lefties....

wasn`t there a line posted on this at 5 dimes?...

maidana/guerrero off.....f-ck!

http://www.istandnfight.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1191:guerrero-vs-maidana-is-off&catid=34:updates&Itemid=57

[Vaughany]

maidana/guerrero off.....f-ck!

http://www.istandnfight.com/index.ph...&Itemid=57

ha yeah noticed yesterday when my $500 on Maidana had been refunded. Another nice arb down the drain!

[BIGDAY]

I like Pat Curran at EV or better. GL

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 10 units on Barboza (-250), Anderson Silva (-400), & Jon Jones (-350) to win 12.5 units.

[Vaughany]

This douche who creamed in his pants whilst interviewing Jake Shields is back!...

[Beelzebubzy]

Wow you are a strannnnnnnnnge dude!


87TheAnswer 1 hour ago

[Vaughany]

[blumpkin]

Hey V... any plays for tonights Bellator?

[Vaughany]

Hey V... any plays for tonights Bellator?

Nah, was gonna take Petruzelli if he reached +300 but he's back down at +265 now. Curran/Sandro is too close to call, if I had Bodog account I'd probably take fight goes distance or Curran by decision hedged with Sandro straight up

[Chairib]

This douche who creamed in his pants whilst interviewing Jake Shields is back!...

Where do you find this stuff? What a homo.

[R6MC]

whered you get that parlay? I see -400, -250, but -400 not -350 for Jones. please let me in.

[R6MC]

pm or something please i'm super pumped about that parlay

[snake11eyes]

Adding:


Parlay: 10 units on Barboza (-250), Anderson Silva (-400), & Jon Jones (-350) to win 12.5 units.

I know you don't like more than 3 plays in a parlay, but you should throw Cruz in there and wait another week. No way he loses to the mouse.

[Vaughany]

pm or something please i'm super pumped about that parlay

Boylesports have Anderson -400 and Jones -350.

I know you don't like more than 3 plays in a parlay, but you should throw Cruz in there and wait another week. No way he loses to the mouse.

I would of had Cruz in that but that fight isn't listed on boylesports yet so couldn't

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay: 12.088 units on Palhares, & Schaub to win 11.193 units;


Parlay: 6.044 units on Curran/Sandro Starts Round 2, Palhares, Barboza/Pearson Starts Round 2, Not Schaub by Submission, & Not
Okami Inside Distance to win 6.078 units.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


5 units on Nedkov at +195 to win 9.75 units.

[Vaughany]

Summary of pending UFC 134 plays so far:


11.357 units on Barboza at -185 to win 6.139 units;

6.135 units on Pearson/Barboza to go the distance at Evens to win 6.135 units;


5 units on Nedkov at +195 to win 9.75 units;


6.059 units on Schaub by TKO/KO at +135 to win 8.18 units;


Parlay: 6.059 units on Not Pearson by Submission, Schaub by TKO/KO, & Not Rua by Submission to win 10.203 units;


Parlay: 12.088 units on Palhares, & Schaub to win 11.193 units;


Parlay: 6.044 units on Curran/Sandro Starts Round 2, Palhares, Barboza/Pearson Starts Round 2, Not Schaub by Submission, & Not Okami Inside Distance to win 6.078 units;


Parlay: 3.068 units on Schaub/Nogueira to Not Go the Distance at -185 to win 1.658 units;

^^^ (This was originally a double parlay of Rivera/Sakara to not go the distance and Schaub/Nog to not go the distance but obviously now just a single on the latter due to Sakara fight being cancelled);


Parlay: 3.068 units on Woodley (-240), Not Yahya by decision (-1764), & Schaub inside the distance (+130) to win 7.495 units;


Parlay: 3.068 units on F.Griffin by decision (+298), & Schaub/Nogueira to not go the distance (-185) to win 15.741 units;


Parlay: 10 units on Barboza (-250), Anderson Silva (-400), & Jon Jones (-350) to win 12.5 units.

[more_betterness]

I'm kicking around dropping a little on nedkov due to a combination of superior wrestling, his chin, and aggression, however I can't recall ever seeing cane get put on his back and have no idea what his TDD is like. Whats your opinion on it Vaugh? I can't seem to find most of Cane's fights at the moment.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


4 units on Pearson by Decision at +467 to win 18.68 units;

hedged with:

10 units on Barboza at -250 to win 4 units.


8.68 units profit if Pearson wins by Decision, this is a hedge to a hedge - covers my Barboza plays.

[Vaughany]

Bash is this Friday through Sunday, but the Mrs and came down early for the whole week. I'm sure a few pics will be posted after this weekend.

How was it bro? Bet your still recovering no doubt!

[kmdubya]

I'm kicking around dropping a little on nedkov due to a combination of superior wrestling, his chin, and aggression, however I can't recall ever seeing cane get put on his back and have no idea what his TDD is like. Whats your opinion on it Vaugh? I can't seem to find most of Cane's fights at the moment.

If Cane loses, it will be to submission or possible decision. He hasn't seen a takedown in a long time, so it's a total guess on that front.

[Vaughany]

I'm kicking around dropping a little on nedkov due to a combination of superior wrestling, his chin, and aggression, however I can't recall ever seeing cane get put on his back and have no idea what his TDD is like. Whats your opinion on it Vaugh? I can't seem to find most of Cane's fights at the moment.

As Kmdubya said above, we can't really claim that Cane has poor defence or great defence as all his match-ups have been against stand-up guys who guys that didn't look for the takedown (or didnt get the chance to in Marshall's case). I may end up buying back on Cane, and playing "fight to finish quickest" instead. If not I may hedge my play with Cane by TKO/KO. At end of the day Nedkov hasnt fought in a while and has sloppy stand-up and questionable gas tank. So I think your pretty much counting on him getting Cane down and gnp or submitting him in first round. Cane doesnt deal well with pressure so I dont think this is out of the question.

If Cane loses, it will be to submission or possible decision. He hasn't seen a takedown in a long time, so it's a total guess on that front.

Wouldnt rule out Nedkov TKO'ing him early on before he gasses out - depends how aggressive he is from the start and whether he looks for and gets the takedown early on

[BIGDAY]

How was it bro? Bet your still recovering no doubt!

It was pretty awesome. We did a few day tours during the week before the bash started to explore the country a bit. Had an outstanding poker tourny taking 5th and $375 in Legends sportbook cash. Also taking the $100 bounty on SBR John. And topped the weekend off with a Nice 3 Unit Pat Curran finish at EV odds. I had a thread titled MMA winner from Costa Rica poolside in players talk, but it got buried. I should have started it here also.
Regardless, it was a blast. Hopefully you can make it some year.
Good luck this weekend. Love Schaub this weekend also and will put a little on Griffin also. I hope he climbs into the 200's. But the play is playing him by decision.

[sirchadwick1]

I like Cane straight up hedged w/ Nedkov via the 1st rd. You guys are right about Cane not handling pressure from guys w/ good hands... but I think Cane is on another level and is still improving. If Nedkov is going to win this he's going to have to do it early... he'll be fading in the 2nd.