MMA MANIA Prelims -
125 lbs.: Lauren Murphy vs. Mara Romero Borella
Lauren Murphy — the former Invicta FC Bantamweight champion — went 1-3 in the Octagon before joining The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 as the No. 3-ranked seed. She fell to eventual tournament winner Nicco Montano in the opening round and has gone 1-1 since, most recently dropping a decision to cast mate Sijara Eubanks.
This will be her first bout in 14 months because of injury.
Italy’s Mara Romero Borella (12-5) extended her unbeaten streak to seven with an upset submission of Kalindra Faria in her UFC debut. She dropped a decision her next time out, but bounced back to hand Taila Santos her first professional loss in 16 fights.
“Kunoichici” will have a 2.5-inch reach advantage.
Murphy’s key issue is that her wrestling isn’t good enough for her to consistently implement her strong top control. I thought that the drop to Flyweight would make her more able to overpower her opponents, but that hasn’t proven the case. Against Borella, a capable grappler in her own right, I expect a lot of fruitless grinding against the fence.
Yay.
Whoever wins this, it’s going to be ugly and fan-unfriendly. Expect a slow-paced clinch battle where both have an argument for deserving the decision; Borella’s been more impressive in the Octagon, so I say she ekes it out.
Prediction: Borella via split decision
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170 lbs.: Cole Williams vs. Claudio Silva
Cole Williams (11-1) enters UFC on a nine-fight win streak that dates back to 2009. Back in 2013, he competed on Bellator’s Fight Master series, racking up three victories before falling to Joe Riggs in the semifinals.
He replaces Ramazan Emeev, who ran into **** issues, on just over a week’s notice.
Claudio Silva (13-1) began his Octagon run with decisions over Brad Scott and Leon Edwards, only to miss the next 2.5 years with various injuries. He returned in May 2018 with a bonus-winning upset submission of Nordine Taleb, then scored a controversial armbar finish of Danny Roberts last March.
“Hannibal” has submitted eight professional opponents, four each by armbar and rear-naked choke.
Emeev would have been Silva’s first opponent to badly out-class him in the wrestling, which for my money would have gotten “Gorets” a comfortable victory. Williams, a decent all-arounder with no standout skills, will be a far easier assignment. The 35-year-old is a better striker than “Hannibal,” but so is everyone the Brazilian fights. Silva’s win condition is getting a takedown and I haven’t seen enough top-notch grappling from Williams to suggest that he can deny it.
Silva’s general ineptitude at everything but Brazilian jiu-jitsu will make it interesting while it lasts, and Williams does sit down enough on his shots to maybe ring Silva’s bell once or twice. That said, it’s essentially over as soon as it hits the mat.
Prediction: Silva via first-round submission
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125 lbs.: Hannah Goldy vs. Miranda Granger
Hannah Goldy (5-0) went 3-1 as an amateur before debuting in 2016 with a decision over current Flyweight standout Gillian Robertson. Three more wins brought her to the Contender Series, where she outclassed Kali Robbins but did not earn an immediate contract.
She stands three inches shorter than Miranda Granger (6-0) at 5’4.”
“Danger” Granger won all five of her amateur bouts and quickly beat some notable names in the pros, including Invicta veteran Amy Montenegro and two-time Contender Series competitor Jamie Colleen. This set up a short at the vacant CFFC Strawweight title, which she won with a 41-second guillotine of Heloina Azevedo in May.
All but one of her six finishes have come in the first round.
This looks to be a fairly prototypical striker vs. grappler match up — Goldy has good takedown defense and Granger isn’t helpless on the feet, but each has a considerable edge in her area of expertise.
Unfortunately for Granger, Goldy’s better at getting and keeping it in her comfort zone.
Granger hasn’t proven herself to be an overpowering wrestler, generally doing her best work reactively, and is extremely straightforward on the feet. Like Robbins, this leaves her open to Goldy’s kicks and check hook. Unless Granger shows some dramatically improved takedown entries and cage cutting, Goldy spends 15 minutes pot-shotting off the back foot for a dominant victory.
Prediction: Goldy via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Mickey Gall vs. Salim Touahri
Mickey Gall (5-2) dispatched Mike Jackson in 45 seconds to win the C.M. Punk Sweepstakes, then defeated the former WWE star with similar ease seven months later. He has since alternated victories and defeats, submissions of Sage Northcutt and George Sullivan offset by losses to Randy Brown and, most recently, Diego Sanchez.
He steps in for the injured Zelim Imadaev on less than one month’s notice.
Salim Touahri (10-3) brought a five-fight win streak into his short-notice UFC debut against Warlley Alves, who overpowered the Pole over 15 minutes to take a unanimous decision. Injury kept “Grizzly” out of action for the next 14 months, after which he fell to Keita Nakamura by narrow split decision.
He stands four inches shorter than Gall at 5’10” and will give up two inches of reach.
This looks to be a make-or-break fight for Gall — Touahri’s basic, but he hits hard and he’s a pain to take down. Neither Alves, a physical beast, nor Nakamura, a highly adept grappler, were able to consistently bring down or control “Grizzly.”
Basically, Gall needs to prove that he has more than just decent wrestling and a sick rear-naked choke to win this. After six UFC fights and a loss to what’s left of Diego Sanchez, I’m not sure he does. Though he could very well have improved since that “Nightmare” defeat, his consistently-limited arsenal makes it hard to have faith in him. Touahri sprawls-and-brawls to an increasingly one-sided victory.
Prediction: Touahri via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Antonina Shevchenko vs. Lucie Pudilova
Antonina Shevchenko (7-1) — sister of champion Valentina Shevchenko — followed up her dominant “Contender Series” victory with a decision over Korean bruiser Ji Yeon Kim in her Octagon debut. Five months later, she returned to action against Roxanne Modafferi, who defied lopsided odds to grind out a split decision in St. Petersburg. The 34-year-old
“Panther” is nine years older than Pudilova.
Lucia Pudilova (8-4) got a shot at revenge against Lina Lansberg in her first UFC appearance, but wound up on the wrong side of a decision despite inflicting some serious damage to “The Elbow Queen’s” eye. She got back on track with decisions over Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras, though she subsequently came up short against Irene Aldana and Liz Carmouche.
She has knocked out and submitted two foes apiece.
Pudilova — though better than her 2-3 Octagon record would suggest — looks to be a safe bounce-back opponent for Shevchenko. The Czech veteran has shown neither the inclination nor ability to consistently hunt for takedowns, and for all of Shevchenko’s struggles on the mat, she outclasses most of the division on the feet.
At 34 years old, it’s highly unlikely that Shevchenko can develop the underrated wrestling that’s the key to her sister’s success. Against a willing striker, though, she can still shine. Powerful clinch work carries her to victory.
Prediction: Shevchenko via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Jordan Espinosa vs. Matt Schnell
An 83-second submission of Nick Urso wasn’t enough to earn Jordan Espinosa (14-5) a contract in his first “Contender Series” bid, but he returned to the show a year later to knockout Rilley Dutro and secure a place in the Octagon. He successfully debuted this past March with a decision over TUF veteran Eric Shelton for his fifth consecutive victory.
Four of his seven professional stoppages have come by d’arce choke.
Matt Schnell (13-4) brought a seven-fight win streak into TUF 24, where he submitted Matthew Rizzo before falling to Tim Elliott in the quarterfinals. Though he started his UFC career winless (0-2), he has since won three straight, including a triangle finish of Louis Smolka in March.
He stands two inches taller than Espinosa, but will give up one inch of reach.
Espinosa’s greatest weakness has historically been his cardio, which led me to pick against him in his UFC debut. Instead, he held his own for all 15 minutes against a real scrapper in Shelton. Without that handicap, he’s a handful for most of the division, Schnell included.
Schnell is the lesser wrestler of the two and his historical issues with punch resistance suggest that he’s in danger so long as it stays on the feet. Espinosa clips him with a counter, then clamps down on his favorite d’arce choke when Schnell tries to shoot.
Prediction: Espinosa via first round submission
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 103-57