UFC on ESPN 5: Covington vs. Lawler (August 03, 2019)

[JAKEPEAVY21]

400+ day layoff and i cant forget the loss to warley Alves years back.... im still not sold on Colby and i like how Lawler looks in training ... its make or break for his career right now tbh, for 100 BP makes it some fun haha , i could see either guy winning really

hey, I hope you win I'd love to see Robbie put Colby to sleep

I have not really paid attention to any banter from Colby leading up to this fight but Lawler is not the type of guy I would talk shit to.

[Sanity Check]

I have not really paid attention to any banter from Colby leading up to this fight

Colby violated bro code and told the entire world Robbie Lawler left american top team cuz they put a poster of Tyron Woodley on the wall of the gym.

Aside from that Colby hasn't said anything negative recently that I remember.

[JC2008]

Have you ever been to Newark at night?

I live in Calgary, Alberta so no... not the first state I'd visit if I went to the U.S. but I see your point..

[firekillex]

Couldve had a cracked rib but he got subbed round 1.. no doubt Colby is a great fighter with insane pace and elite wrestling ... But Lawler has huge power and solid TDD so it will be interesting , fighters are injured 90% of the time after a 6-8 week camp its hard to be 100% health in MMA ... really this is a huge fight for both guys if Colby wants his long awaited title shot he needs this win and if Lawler wants to keep competing he needs this win big time or hell be like 1-4 in his last 5

[Hugo de Naranja]

Couldve had a cracked rib but he got subbed round 1.. no doubt Colby is a great fighter with insane pace and elite wrestling ... But Lawler has huge power and solid TDD so it will be interesting , fighters are injured 90% of the time after a 6-8 week camp its hard to be 100% health in MMA ... really this is a huge fight for both guys if Colby wants his long awaited title shot he needs this win and if Lawler wants to keep competing he needs this win big time or hell be like 1-4 in his last 5

How is the Alves fight even relevant? Can Lawler replicate Alves’ submission skills? It’s not what he’s known for.

[firekillex]

How is the Alves fight even relevant? Can Lawler replicate Alves’ submission skills? It’s not what he’s known for.

no doubt lawler isnt going to jump for a submission. But seeing a fighter lose and seeing theyre not invincible is something i take into account.. Being undefeated and having all the momentum/confidence in the world gives a different mind set , not saying its the end all be all, especially in MMA where losses always typically come , but i like to see it... I also like Lawler when his backs against the wall... time will tell

[Enfuego]

I'm currently in Lake Stevens. I've been in the area since 1999 by way of Tacoma and originally from L.A.

Cool

[Thrilla]

Event Background

UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler (also known as UFC on ESPN 5) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that is planned to take place on August 3, 2019 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, United States.^[1][2][3]

The event was initially linked to Sochi, Russia, which would have marked the promotion's first visit to the Black Sea region of Russia.^[4] However, the plans for a Sochi debut fizzled.^[5] Subsequently, after also briefly considering contesting the event in Manchester, as well as Tampa, Florida, the promotion announced plans to return to familiar surroundings of Northern New Jersey. The event will mark the promotion's eighth visit to the Prudential Center and first since UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Bader in January 2016.^[3][2]

A welterweight bout between former interim UFC Welterweight Champion Colby Covington and former undisputed champion Robbie Lawler has been tabbed to serve as the event headliner.^[6][7]

A welterweight bout between Cláudio Silva and Ramazan Emeev was rescheduled for the event.^[4] The matchup was originally scheduled to take place in September 2018 at UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik. However, Silva pulled out of the fight citing a lower back injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Stefan Sekulić.^[8][9] In turn, Emeev was removed from this event due to alleged vısa issues, that restricted his travel to the United States. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Cole Williams.^[10]

A women's flyweight bout between Lauren Murphy and Mara Romero Borella was initially scheduled to take place on July 27, 2019 at UFC 240. However on June 20, promotion officials elected to reschedule the pairing to take place at this event.^[11]

A light heavyweight bout between Ilir Latifi and Volkan Oezdemir was originally scheduled on June 1, 2019 at UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith.^[12] However, Latifi was forced to pull out of the event due to a back injury and the bout was cancelled.^[13] The pair was initially rescheduled at this event.^[14] In turn, the bout was shifted a week later to UFC on ESPN+ 14 after Oezdemir was faced with alleged vısa issues which affected his travel schedule.^[15]

A welterweight bout between Zelim Imadaev and Salim Touahri was briefly targeted for this event.^[16] However on July 9, it was announced that Touahri would now be facing Mickey Gall instead. No reason was given for the change.<sup>[17]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_on...ton_vs._Lawler</sup>

[Hugo de Naranja]

no doubt lawler isnt going to jump for a submission. But seeing a fighter lose and seeing theyre not invincible is something i take into account.. Being undefeated and having all the momentum/confidence in the world gives a different mind set , not saying its the end all be all, especially in MMA where losses always typically come , but i like to see it... I also like Lawler when his backs against the wall... time will tell

Fair enough

[Sanity Check]

Couldve had a cracked rib but he got subbed round 1.. no doubt Colby is a great fighter with insane pace and elite wrestling ... But Lawler has huge power and solid TDD so it will be interesting , fighters are injured 90% of the time after a 6-8 week camp its hard to be 100% health in MMA ... really this is a huge fight for both guys if Colby wants his long awaited title shot he needs this win and if Lawler wants to keep competing he needs this win big time or hell be like 1-4 in his last 5

A cracked rib is a much more debilitating injury than people normally go into fights with.

Jose Aldo pulled out of one fight with Conor due to having a bruised rib, if you can imagine that.

In middle school, one of my friends that played football was diagnosed with a cracked rib. Being dumb kids someone (it might have been me, I don't remember) jumped on his back thinking it wouldn't hurt him. Dude full on burst into tears. It could easily be much worse than it sounds.


Would be interested to know what type of injury Jack Hermansson had in his fight with Thales Leites. I would guess it was a bruised rib. If it was a cracked or broken rib that would be impressive as hell.

[Sanity Check]

.

[PaperTrail07]

I'm with you---was fooled before---not again....

same here..fading Gall until he shows me something.

[PaperTrail07]

Lawler is the guy you get when you run your mouth to the UFC lol....I feel they wanted him KO'd as well LOL....I'm surprised CC took this fight....BUT if he wins its title shot time IMO...

hey, I hope you win I'd love to see Robbie put Colby to sleep

I have not really paid attention to any banter from Colby leading up to this fight but Lawler is not the type of guy I would talk shit to.

[PaperTrail07]

Also....IMO Jim Miller is another BACK THE TRUCK UP bet.....Guida just went 3 with BJ meaning his KO or stopping power is as low as it gets ...EVER..... Jim Miller is still fighting REAL opponents and actually is looking good....Please don't not overthink this Miller can win this with points or a finish .....

[PaperTrail07]

Any other early leans you guys have? Not a lot of good spots on this card imo

[Hugo de Naranja]

What you got Papes? I see Miller and maybe Touahri from your posts

[PaperTrail07]

Miller in a back the truck up bet
-Guida was always a fav of mine as well...follow him very close-would be VERY surprised to see him get the W here....


Haqparast -see a decision win here.
Covington===RNC in the 4th
GM3-Decision or RNC
Dong Hyun Ma-split

What do you think?

What you got Papes? I see Miller and maybe Touahri from your posts

[Hugo de Naranja]

Miller in a back the truck up bet
-Guida was always a fav of mine as well...follow him very close-would be VERY surprised to see him get the W here....


Haqparast -see a decision win here.
Covington===RNC in the 4th
GM3-Decision or RNC
Dong Hyun Ma-split

What do you think?

Don’t think Ma wins and don’t think there is value on Miller here like the other three

[BIGDAY]

buddy ...we on Covington since wrastlers rule ??

Duh

[Sanity Check]

buddy ...we on Covington since wrastlers rule ??

The casual MMA fan doesn't realize Robbie Lawler and Colby Covington both came from wrestling backgrounds.

[firekillex]

The casual MMA fan doesn't realize Robbie Lawler and Colby Covington both came from wrestling backgrounds.

yes because robbie lawler is known for his takedowns and double legs in MMA

ive been watching mma for over 15 years and train daily... dont think im a "casual" good try though babe

[PaperTrail07]

Holtzman -440 is jut nutty to me lol...so went the other way GL on this card sir

Don’t think Ma wins and don’t think there is value on Miller here like the other three

[Hugo de Naranja]

Holtzman -440 is jut nutty to me lol...so went the other way GL on this card sir

You too mate

[Sanity Check]

yes because robbie lawler is known for his takedowns and double legs in MMA

ive been watching mma for over 15 years and train daily... dont think im a "casual" good try though babe

Been "watching" and "training".

But in all the time you've been "watching" and "training" you never learned how serious a cracked rib can be and never realized Robbie Lawler wrestled in high school -- his base is wrestling just like Colby.

There's a strange trend I've noticed with people who say they've been involved with boxing/wrestling/martial arts for "10+ years".

Somehow they didn't manage to learn very much.

[Teem]

Curious what you guys think of Giles/Meerschaert. Giles looked good after his long layoff. GM3 didn't fight well in his last 2 bouts if I'm remembering correctly. Especially against Holland. I was thinking Giles gets the W here.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Curious what you guys think of Giles/Meerschaert. Giles looked good after his long layoff. GM3 didn't fight well in his last 2 bouts if I'm remembering correctly. Especially against Holland. I was thinking Giles gets the W here.

I thought Meerschaert arguably beat Holland and I think that media scores for that fight support that argument.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA Prelims -



125 lbs.: Lauren Murphy vs. Mara Romero Borella

Lauren Murphy — the former Invicta FC Bantamweight champion — went 1-3 in the Octagon before joining The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 as the No. 3-ranked seed. She fell to eventual tournament winner Nicco Montano in the opening round and has gone 1-1 since, most recently dropping a decision to cast mate Sijara Eubanks.
This will be her first bout in 14 months because of injury.
Italy’s Mara Romero Borella (12-5) extended her unbeaten streak to seven with an upset submission of Kalindra Faria in her UFC debut. She dropped a decision her next time out, but bounced back to hand Taila Santos her first professional loss in 16 fights.
“Kunoichici” will have a 2.5-inch reach advantage.
Murphy’s key issue is that her wrestling isn’t good enough for her to consistently implement her strong top control. I thought that the drop to Flyweight would make her more able to overpower her opponents, but that hasn’t proven the case. Against Borella, a capable grappler in her own right, I expect a lot of fruitless grinding against the fence.
Yay.
Whoever wins this, it’s going to be ugly and fan-unfriendly. Expect a slow-paced clinch battle where both have an argument for deserving the decision; Borella’s been more impressive in the Octagon, so I say she ekes it out.
Prediction: Borella via split decision
Related
Covington Next For Welterweight Title Shot ... If He Beats Lawler

170 lbs.: Cole Williams vs. Claudio Silva

Cole Williams (11-1) enters UFC on a nine-fight win streak that dates back to 2009. Back in 2013, he competed on Bellator’s Fight Master series, racking up three victories before falling to Joe Riggs in the semifinals.
He replaces Ramazan Emeev, who ran into **** issues, on just over a week’s notice.
Claudio Silva (13-1) began his Octagon run with decisions over Brad Scott and Leon Edwards, only to miss the next 2.5 years with various injuries. He returned in May 2018 with a bonus-winning upset submission of Nordine Taleb, then scored a controversial armbar finish of Danny Roberts last March.
“Hannibal” has submitted eight professional opponents, four each by armbar and rear-naked choke.
Emeev would have been Silva’s first opponent to badly out-class him in the wrestling, which for my money would have gotten “Gorets” a comfortable victory. Williams, a decent all-arounder with no standout skills, will be a far easier assignment. The 35-year-old is a better striker than “Hannibal,” but so is everyone the Brazilian fights. Silva’s win condition is getting a takedown and I haven’t seen enough top-notch grappling from Williams to suggest that he can deny it.
Silva’s general ineptitude at everything but Brazilian jiu-jitsu will make it interesting while it lasts, and Williams does sit down enough on his shots to maybe ring Silva’s bell once or twice. That said, it’s essentially over as soon as it hits the mat.
Prediction: Silva via first-round submission
Related
Super Potion! Covington Suspicious Of Lawler’s Physique

125 lbs.: Hannah Goldy vs. Miranda Granger

Hannah Goldy (5-0) went 3-1 as an amateur before debuting in 2016 with a decision over current Flyweight standout Gillian Robertson. Three more wins brought her to the Contender Series, where she outclassed Kali Robbins but did not earn an immediate contract.
She stands three inches shorter than Miranda Granger (6-0) at 5’4.”
“Danger” Granger won all five of her amateur bouts and quickly beat some notable names in the pros, including Invicta veteran Amy Montenegro and two-time Contender Series competitor Jamie Colleen. This set up a short at the vacant CFFC Strawweight title, which she won with a 41-second guillotine of Heloina Azevedo in May.
All but one of her six finishes have come in the first round.
This looks to be a fairly prototypical striker vs. grappler match up — Goldy has good takedown defense and Granger isn’t helpless on the feet, but each has a considerable edge in her area of expertise.
Unfortunately for Granger, Goldy’s better at getting and keeping it in her comfort zone.
Granger hasn’t proven herself to be an overpowering wrestler, generally doing her best work reactively, and is extremely straightforward on the feet. Like Robbins, this leaves her open to Goldy’s kicks and check hook. Unless Granger shows some dramatically improved takedown entries and cage cutting, Goldy spends 15 minutes pot-shotting off the back foot for a dominant victory.
Prediction: Goldy via unanimous decision


170 lbs.: Mickey Gall vs. Salim Touahri

Mickey Gall (5-2) dispatched Mike Jackson in 45 seconds to win the C.M. Punk Sweepstakes, then defeated the former WWE star with similar ease seven months later. He has since alternated victories and defeats, submissions of Sage Northcutt and George Sullivan offset by losses to Randy Brown and, most recently, Diego Sanchez.
He steps in for the injured Zelim Imadaev on less than one month’s notice.
Salim Touahri (10-3) brought a five-fight win streak into his short-notice UFC debut against Warlley Alves, who overpowered the Pole over 15 minutes to take a unanimous decision. Injury kept “Grizzly” out of action for the next 14 months, after which he fell to Keita Nakamura by narrow split decision.
He stands four inches shorter than Gall at 5’10” and will give up two inches of reach.
This looks to be a make-or-break fight for Gall — Touahri’s basic, but he hits hard and he’s a pain to take down. Neither Alves, a physical beast, nor Nakamura, a highly adept grappler, were able to consistently bring down or control “Grizzly.”
Basically, Gall needs to prove that he has more than just decent wrestling and a sick rear-naked choke to win this. After six UFC fights and a loss to what’s left of Diego Sanchez, I’m not sure he does. Though he could very well have improved since that “Nightmare” defeat, his consistently-limited arsenal makes it hard to have faith in him. Touahri sprawls-and-brawls to an increasingly one-sided victory.
Prediction: Touahri via unanimous decision
Related
Covington Next For Welterweight Title Shot ... If He Beats Lawler

125 lbs.: Antonina Shevchenko vs. Lucie Pudilova

Antonina Shevchenko (7-1) — sister of champion Valentina Shevchenko — followed up her dominant “Contender Series” victory with a decision over Korean bruiser Ji Yeon Kim in her Octagon debut. Five months later, she returned to action against Roxanne Modafferi, who defied lopsided odds to grind out a split decision in St. Petersburg. The 34-year-old
“Panther” is nine years older than Pudilova.
Lucia Pudilova (8-4) got a shot at revenge against Lina Lansberg in her first UFC appearance, but wound up on the wrong side of a decision despite inflicting some serious damage to “The Elbow Queen’s” eye. She got back on track with decisions over Ji Yeon Kim and Sarah Moras, though she subsequently came up short against Irene Aldana and Liz Carmouche.
She has knocked out and submitted two foes apiece.
Pudilova — though better than her 2-3 Octagon record would suggest — looks to be a safe bounce-back opponent for Shevchenko. The Czech veteran has shown neither the inclination nor ability to consistently hunt for takedowns, and for all of Shevchenko’s struggles on the mat, she outclasses most of the division on the feet.
At 34 years old, it’s highly unlikely that Shevchenko can develop the underrated wrestling that’s the key to her sister’s success. Against a willing striker, though, she can still shine. Powerful clinch work carries her to victory.
Prediction: Shevchenko via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! High Noon In Newark!

125 lbs.: Jordan Espinosa vs. Matt Schnell

An 83-second submission of Nick Urso wasn’t enough to earn Jordan Espinosa (14-5) a contract in his first “Contender Series” bid, but he returned to the show a year later to knockout Rilley Dutro and secure a place in the Octagon. He successfully debuted this past March with a decision over TUF veteran Eric Shelton for his fifth consecutive victory.
Four of his seven professional stoppages have come by d’arce choke.
Matt Schnell (13-4) brought a seven-fight win streak into TUF 24, where he submitted Matthew Rizzo before falling to Tim Elliott in the quarterfinals. Though he started his UFC career winless (0-2), he has since won three straight, including a triangle finish of Louis Smolka in March.
He stands two inches taller than Espinosa, but will give up one inch of reach.
Espinosa’s greatest weakness has historically been his cardio, which led me to pick against him in his UFC debut. Instead, he held his own for all 15 minutes against a real scrapper in Shelton. Without that handicap, he’s a handful for most of the division, Schnell included.
Schnell is the lesser wrestler of the two and his historical issues with punch resistance suggest that he’s in danger so long as it stays on the feet. Espinosa clips him with a counter, then clamps down on his favorite d’arce choke when Schnell tries to shoot.
Prediction: Espinosa via first round submission



Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 103-57

[JIBBBY]

I'm with you---was fooled before---not again....

Always fading Gall agreed here as well.

[magpie878]

buddy ...we on Covington since wrastlers rule ??

[nyrider88]

bookmaker has the name wrong, will they still honor the bet?

Dong Hyun Kim
Scott Holtzman


+316
-440

[Sanity Check]

Dong Hyun Ma misses weight by 2 pounds. (Weighed 158)

Cole Williams misses weight by 5 pounds. (Weighed 176)

http://combatpress.com/2019/08/ufc-on-espn-5-covington-vs-lawler-weigh-in-results/

[slikec]

MMA MANIA Prelims 170 lbs.: Mickey Gall vs. Salim Touahri

This looks to be a make-or-break fight for Gall — Touahri’s basic, but he hits hard and he’s a pain to take down. Neither Alves, a physical beast, nor Nakamura, a highly adept grappler, were able to consistently bring down or control “Grizzly.”

I dont know Touahri but if he is really hard to take down this is easy bet. Gall striking is joke.

[JIBBBY]

I dont know Touahri but if he is really hard to take down this is easy bet. Gall striking is joke.

If the fight stays grounded then sure Gall can maybe get the sub win. It's his only pathway to victory as his striking is horrific like you said.. It's just so hard to lay chalk on Gall though still.. The guy is so beatable.

Touahri has never lost by submission on a side note also.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Salim-Touahri-73527

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[JIBBBY]

Robbie by ko seems like his likely path to victory if he is to win. Striking vs the wrestling and in your face grind in this fight is what I'm looking at.. Robbie has the striking and power. Covington with the in your face grind and wrestling..

1037 Lawler wins by TKO/KO

+230

Not sure if this fight will go 5 rounds though if Covington gets top position every round and just unleashes Ground and Pound on Robbie. Robbie may get pounded out or sub'd again.

These 2 props I'm up in the air with for hedging since it is a 5 round fight???

1011 Covington wins by 5 round decision

+100

1009 Covington wins inside distance

+350