UFC 219: Cyborg Vs. Holm | 30.12.2017 (Las Vegas, Nevada)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Vettori looks to have put on a lot of mass since his UFC debut. He looked small before but looked bigger than his opponent in his last fight. He should be bigger than Omari by 10 lbs at least come fight time unless Omari was doing some crazy cutting to 170.

I like that Vettori has moved to King's MMA. He's still young and I think the move will really help him to round out his game.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think the most likely scenario for a finish is that Omari is tired and Vettori gets a top control GnP stoppage where Omari doesn't really look out but he's not doing anything to defend.

I know your betting Vettori here. Do you think he'll finish?

[TPowell]

I think the most likely scenario for a finish is that Omari is tired and Vettori gets a top control GnP stoppage where Omari doesn't really look out but he's not doing anything to defend.

Have to agree and at 185, I think this is a little unlikely unless this is a clinch war in which my starts round 3 play looks like a lock.

[turbozed]

I know your betting Vettori here. Do you think he'll finish?

I don't think it's likely if you just take each guys' last performance . But Vettori has been improving very fast so you gotta factor that in.

Hard to pick a specific win method because of that and because we don't know what Omari is going to look like at MW.

To be honest, my Vettori bet feels pretty square because I parlayed with Cyborg ML to get a decent price (-115 or so). All roads lead to Cyborg for me in this card lol

[Hugo de Naranja]

Vettori Submission (+712) could be a look since it's likely Akhmedov will go to the wrestling and Vettori's best submission is his Guillotine. Akhmedov has also been caught in Guillotines in both of his submission losses.

[Shagdogy]

Vettori Submission (+712) could be a look since it's likely Akhmedov will go to the wrestling and Vettori's best submission is his Guillotine. Akhmedov has also been caught in Guillotines in both of his submission losses.

Not a bad idea. Vettori does really like his guillotine and he seems to have a strong squeeze, although he'd probably be better served to just fight the TDs in this fight and lead Akhmedov to gas halfway through.

I think the most likely path to a finish is TKO by Vettori overwhelming a gassed out Akhmedov with high volume strikes. I could see him getting the standing TKO against the cage or dropping Akhmedov against the cage and swarming. This is a late 2nd/3rd rd scenario IMO.

[Shagdogy]

^ will be real interesting to see Akhmedov at 185 though. I said earlier I have my suspicions (based on only a hunch - no facts) that Akhmedov is a juicer. If he comes into this fight completely filled out for the 185 division and has brand new cardio, I will be more convinced.

That's my biggest concern with the Vettori bet is that Akhmedov comes in with a sudden, massive improvement in strength and cardio.

[turbozed]

Is 5D down for anyone else here?

Edit: Nevermind, it worked once I switched browsers.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Is 5D down for anyone else here?

It's working fine for me.

[TPowell]

Vettori Submission (+712) could be a look since it's likely Akhmedov will go to the wrestling and Vettori's best submission is his Guillotine. Akhmedov has also been caught in Guillotines in both of his submission losses.

Betting on an Italian guy to sub a Russian is something I hope you think about again. I'd say that price is more than fair

[Hugo de Naranja]

Betting on an Italian guy to sub a Russian is something I hope you think about again. I'd say that price is more than fair

Russians are hard to sub for sure.

[Sato]

What you guys need to realize is Edson can change the flow of the fight when he lands that perfect blow. Either to the body or to the legs. As soon as he busts one leg/rib up we will see an entirely different fight. Yes pressure can definitely get to Edson but Khabib could get very hurt thus having difficulty maintaining that pace. Its difficult/impossible to move and shoot on a very bad leg. Edson needs to stick with a boxing/leg kicking plan. I wouldnt even throw high kicks (needs more energy). Just a solid jab/right hand and exclusively low kicks. He knows how to mix them up.

The real problem is when Khabib gets the fight to the ground in the 1st round and Edson actually survives the 1st round. How diminished will Edson be going into the 2nd? We saw Johnson walking to his corner at the end of the 1st looking demoralized and already beaten.

The 1st round is probably the most important of this entire fight because Edson has the power to alter the rest of the fight and Khabib can do a number and tire Edson out on the ground creating a basically finished Edson just trying to survive.

[blumpkin]

Did anybody see Cyborg, heard she looks smaller??

[Hugo de Naranja]

What you guys need to realize is Edson can change the flow of the fight when he lands that perfect blow. Either to the body or to the legs. As soon as he busts one leg/rib up we will see an entirely different fight. Yes pressure can definitely get to Edson but Khabib could get very hurt thus having difficulty maintaining that pace. Its difficult/impossible to move and shoot on a very bad leg. Edson needs to stick with a boxing/leg kicking plan. I wouldnt even throw high kicks (needs more energy). Just a solid jab/right hand and exclusively low kicks. He knows how to mix them up.

The real problem is when Khabib gets the fight to the ground in the 1st round and Edson actually survives the 1st round. How diminished will Edson be going into the 2nd? We saw Johnson walking to his corner at the end of the 1st looking demoralized and already beaten.

The 1st round is probably the most important of this entire fight because Edson has the power to alter the rest of the fight and Khabib can do a number and tire Edson out on the ground creating a basically finished Edson just trying to survive.

Nice breakdown! I definitely agree that R1 will be key to deciding where the fight goes from there and that Edson should keep it simple with boxing and low kicks.

[JIBBBY]

Write ups coming in.. MMA MANIA - Prelims


135 lbs.: Tim Elliott vs. Mark De La Rosa

Tim Elliott (14-8) made a strong return to UFC’s ranks by giving Demetrious Jonson a quality test, then defeated Louis Smolka in what was basically a 15-minute scramble. Less than two months later, he faced Ben Nguyen, who took advantage of his reckless grappling to choke him out in just 49 seconds.
He was last booked to fight just weeks ago against Pietro Menga, who flubbed his weight cut so badly he had to be hospitalized.
Mark De La Rosa (9-0) — husband of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 26 competitor Montana De La Rosa — picked up a pair of regional titles to earn a shot at the Legacy FC Bantamweight belt last year. He ended up no-showing the fight and heading to Combate, where he picked up a pair of submission wins.
Five of his nine wins have come by submission.
Legacy shenanigans aside, De La Rosa is an excellent pickup for UFC. He’s quick and slick on the feet, plus more than capable on the mat. Elliott has struggled with mobile strikers before, including Ali Bagautinov and the aforementioned Johnson, and is stepping up in weight, which initially had me leaning toward an upset.
On closer examination, however, De La Rosa has weighed in below the Bantamweight limit multiple times. In addition, he visibly slowed against Arthur Oliveira last year when the Brazilian kept the pressure on him. If nothing else, Elliott makes opponents work, and he’s more than durable enough to walk through De La Rosa’s best. He survives a rough first round to put the pace on him in two and three.
Prediction: Elliott via unanimous decision

185 lbs.: Marvin Vettori vs. Omari Akhmedov

First-round finishes of veterans Jack Mason and Igor Araujo punched Marvin Vettori’s (12-3) ticket to UFC, which he made the most of by submitting Alberto Uda in his promotional debut. Antonio Carlos Junior proved too much to deal with his next time out, but he did manage to overwhelm “Shoeface’s” fellow TUF: “Brazil” finalist, Vitor Muranda, in June.
He owns eight wins by submission and another two by (technical) knockout.
Omari Akhmedov’s (17-4) impressive UFC start (3-1) gave way to consecutive knockout losses to Sergio Moraes and Elizeu Zaleski, both of which saw Akhmedov start strong but fade badly in the later rounds. The Dagestani grappler has since gotten back on track with decisions over Kyle Noke and Abdul Razak Alhassan, defying 2:1 odds to beat the latter.
He owns seven wins by form of knockout and has earned two “Fight of the Night” bonuses in UFC.
If this fight was at Welterweight, I’d take Akhmedov in a heartbeat. Vettori doesn’t pack enough heat in his hands to crack Akhmedov’s shaky jaw and is ostensibly on the wrong end of the wresting battle. Fifteen pounds is nothing to shake a stick at, though, and two solid performances can’t erase the memory of Akhmedov’s cardio failures.
Still, heavy hands and heavy hips go a long way. It’ll be close and probably packed with some wild scrambles, but Akhmedov spends enough time controlling the clinch and punching from top position to edge out the win.
Prediction: Akhmedov via split decision

Part 2 - MMAMANIA Patrick Stewart..


205 lbs.: Khalil Rountreevs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Despite getting a second chance after his first loss, Khalil Rountree (6-2) fell short on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23 thanks to Andrew Sanchez grappling him into the dirt at the Finale. His struggles continued in his subsequent loss to Tyson Pedro, but brutal knockouts of Daniel Jolly and Paul Craig have put him back on the map at 205 pounds.
All four of his professional knockout victories have come in the first round.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (12-2) racked up nine consecutive victories in his native Poland before answering the call to face Ion Cutelaba at UFC 217. Unfortunately for “The Hummer” and his fans, Cutelaba ran afoul of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) at the last minute and was forced to withdraw.
He replaces the injured Gokhan Saki on short notice.
Oleksiejczuk dodged a bullet when Cutelaba got nabbed. Unfortunately for him, he’s running into what might be an even nastier one. Though Rountree can’t match Cutelaba’s furious pace, he’s slicker than the Moldovan and packs even more single-shot power.
Rountree’s ability to handle strong wrestlers remains in doubt, but against the hittable and one-dimensional Oleksiejczuk, the style match up here favors him to an insane degree. He adds another one to his highlight reel via first-round blowout.
Prediction: Rountree via first-round knockout

155 lbs.: Dan Hooker vs. Marc Diakiese

Dan Hooker (14-6) began his UFC career at Featherweight, where he went 3-3 with three stoppage victories. Following his loss to Jason Knight, he moved back to Lightweight and made an immediate impression with a knee knockout of Ross Pearson in his native Auckland.
He stands two inches taller than Marc Diakiese (12-1) and will have two inches of reach.
“Bonecrusher” looked solid in his wins over Lukasz Sajewski and Frankie Perez, but it was his one-punch obliteration of Teemu Packalen that put the young Brit on the map. It so impressed the public that he entered his fight with Drakkar Klose as a major favorite, but ultimately lost a competitive decision after Klose battered his lead leg.
Half of his wins have come by knockout, including three in less than one minute.
Hooker is relentless, strong and deceptively slick. He’s also rather slow, incredibly easy to hit, and mediocre on the mat (not to mention that he has been competing against Featherweight competition for a while). Diakiese’s the better athlete by a massive margin and, while still too undisciplined on the feet, has such an edge in speed and power that it might not make a difference.
If the striking does wind up going Hooker’s way, Diakiese is a strong takedown artist who can at the very least keep Hooker down for long stretches and keep him guessing the rest of the time. Hooker can probably take his best shots, but that just means the beating will last longer. 30-27s across the board for Diakiese.
Prediction: Diakiese via unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Myles Jury vs. Rick Glenn

Myles Jury (16-2) — who lost to Al Iaquinta on TUF 15 — scored six straight UFC victories before running headlong into Donald Cerrone and Charles Oliveira, the latter of whom spoiled his Featherweight debut. He went on to miss the entirety of 2016, though he made up for lost time with a one-round thrashing of Mike De La Torre at UFC 210.
He has stopped 10 opponents in less than three minutes apiece.
Rick Glenn (20-4) moved up in weight to face Evan Dunham on short notice and, though he struggled against his larger foe, went home with a “Fight of the Night” bonus to ease his pain. “The Gladiator” went on to edge Phillipe Nover before truly announcing his entry into the 145-pound ranks by handing Gavin Tucker the beating of a lifetime at UFC 215.
He is one inch taller than Jury, but will give up three inches of reach.
Glenn’s pace and power can overwhelm a good chunk of UFC’s Featherweight roster. Unfortunately for him, Jury is a former Lightweight with the range and wrestling to do to Glenn what Dunham did. If Glenn can keep it standing and wear Jury down with his volume striking, he has a shot. More likely, Jury picks him off with one-two combinations between takedowns, never letting “The Gladiator” build the momentum he needs to impose his will.
Prediction: Jury via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Louis Smolkavs. Matheus Nicolau

Louis Smolka (11-4) opened his UFC career 5-1, earning two bonuses along the way and putting on one of last year’s best fights against Ben Nguyen. Despite this early success, “The Last Samurai” finds himself on a three-fight losing streak, although his battle with Tim Elliott in April was an instant classic.
He will have an impressive five inches of height over the Brazilian.
Fighting as a Bantamweight, Matheus Nicolau (12-1-1) reached the semifinals of TUF: “Brazil” 4, only to fall to teammate Dileno Lopes. He proceeded to beat Bruno “Korea” and John Moraga, but this will be his first fight in more than one year, as he failed a drug test prior to a planned fight with Yuta Sasaki two Novembers ago.
His professional wins are split evenly between knockouts, submissions and decisions.
Smolka is a phenomenal talent held back by nonexistent and — by his own admission — alcoholism. Now that he’s dealing with the latter, I expect significant improvement from him in all areas of the game and, considering his raw potential, the results could be incredible.
Nicolau is skilled in all areas of the game and, at 24, has plenty of room to grow himself. I just can’t pick against Smolka with his back against the wall. Unless Nicolau can box him up something fierce, Smolka catches him in transition for another impressive finish.
Prediction: Smolka via second-round submission

145 lbs.: Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (18-1) vs. Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm (11-3)

If this were a pure striking battle, Holly Holm would have a very real shot at the upset. While “Cyborg” isn’t the mindless brawler some perceive her to be, but she’s still a very straightforward striker. Her fight with Jorina Baars showed the gap between her Muay Thai and that of a true world-class competitor. Even her colossal power can’t bridge that gap.
Luckily, this isn’t a pure striking battle.
“Cyborg” has come a long, long way since accidentally pulling mount against Gina Carano. She’s become a strong wrestler and ground-and-pound artist, as demonstrated by her dissection of Marloes Coenen in their rematch. In addition, she has the confidence and variety in her striking to close the distance against Holm far better than Miesha Tate or Ronda Rousey did.
Unless Holm can slam home her left high kick in the first three minutes or so, “Cyborg” is going to get her to the ground, and there’s basically nothing Holm can do to her once it gets there. Justino overpowers her with takedowns and clinchwork until she gets the TKO stoppage.
Prediction: Justino by second-round TKO

155 lbs.: Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov (24-0) vs. Edson Barboza (19-4)

The thing about Edson Barboza’s style is that it just doesn’t work moving backwards. That’s not to say he hasn’t made huge improvements in his ability to fight off the back foot; he landed some brutal counters on Michael Johnson and Tony Ferguson, not to mention that incredible knee he used to wipe out Beneil Dariush, but he’s still much less effective when he can’t force his opponents to retreat.
Khabib Nurmagomedov does not retreat.
Though his striking is still more reliant on eagerness than fluidity, his chin and relentlessness are enough to get him in takedown range against pretty much anyone below 170 pounds. Even someone with A+ takedown defense and scrambling ability like Barboza isn’t immune; Khabib has an almost inhuman ability to transition from any kind of grip to a successful takedown. Once he’s on you, he’s almost impossible to shake off.
Barboza’s best weapons, those freakishly fast kicks, open him to that killer grip. And even that assumes he’ll be able to throw them at all with Nurmagomedov hunting him down.
Barboza certainly has the skills for a freak KO out of nowhere, but it’s more likely Khabib gets ahold of a body lock and puts him through the grinder before choking him out late.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by third-round submission

155 lbs.: Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (14-6) vs. Marc “Bonecrusher” Diakiese (12-1)

Dan Hooker began his UFC career at Featherweight, where he went 3-3 with three stoppage victories. Following his loss to Jason Knight, he moved back to Lightweight and made an immediate impression with a knee knockout of Ross Pearson in his native Auckland.
He stands two inches taller than Marc Diakiese and will have two inches of reach.
“Bonecrusher” looked solid in his wins over Lukasz Sajewski and Frankie Perez, but it was his one-punch obliteration of Teemu Packalen that put the young Brit on the map. It so impressed the public that he entered his fight with Drakkar Klose as a major favorite, but ultimately lost a competitive decision after Klose battered his lead leg.
Half of his wins have come by knockout, including three in less than one minute.
Hooker is relentless, strong and deceptively slick. He’s also rather slow, incredibly easy to hit, and mediocre on the mat (not to mention that he has been competing against Featherweight competition for a while). Diakiese’s the better athlete by a massive margin and, while still too undisciplined on the feet, has such an edge in speed and power that it might not make a difference.
If the striking does wind up going Hooker’s way, Diakiese is a strong takedown artist who can at the very least keep Hooker down for long stretches and keep him guessing the rest of the time. Hooker can probably take his best shots, but that just means the beating will last longer. 30-27s across the board for Diakiese.
Prediction: Diakiese via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Cynthia Calvillo (6-0) vs. Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza (12-4)

Calvillo is a phenomenal grappler and a true blue-chip prospect. What she isn’t is proven against top-notch wrestlers; her best UFC win was a close fight against Joanne Calderwood and one of her three victories in the promotion came against Pearl Gonzalez, who turned in one of the worst performances in UFC history her next time out.
While the division has evolved past the point where someone like Esparza can use singularly potent takedowns to compensate for iffy striking, she’s still easily one of the three best wrestlers at 115. She’s overpowered the likes of Tecia Torres and Julianna Lima, while Calvillo has yet to face a takedown artist more effective than Montana De La Rosa or Amanda Cooper.
Calvillo could very well be the future. That future just isn’t here yet. Esparza by decision.
Prediction: Esparza by unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (30-10) vs. Neil Magny (19-6)

It’s been sixteen months since Carlos Condit tapped to Demian Maia. It’s been five years since he’s won consecutive bouts. He is currently on a 2-5 skid with only one win over a current member of the UFC roster in that stretch.
It’s become clear that Condit can no longer find consistent success at the top of the welterweight division. The question is whether Magny belongs among that group.
Even with his recent struggles, I say yes.
Condit, who has never been adept at finding his way inside without taking punishment along the way, is facing a five-inch reach disadvantage against someone he can’t simply wear down with sheer pace. Further, the wrestling is all Magny. Condit’s guard may be “dangerous,” but he has not scored a submission in almost ten years; he’s not stopping Magny off of his back.
Magny was always going to be a difficult matchup for Condit just based on his length, cardio, and wrestling. Condit’s layoff just tips things even more in his favor. Top control carries Magny to a decision victory.
Prediction: Magny by unanimous decision

[PaperTrail07]

Appreciate those posts JIBBERZ

[JIBBBY]

Appreciate those posts JIBBERZ

No prob Paper..

Usually can find some bits and pieces of good information from these short reads.. Patrick Stewart (mma writer) does have a strong winning pick record for the year so it's worthy of paying attention to what he writes up I think.... So I guess I always read his predictions with every event and post them up here for that very reason...

I certainly don't always agree with his predictions but appreciate the short history breakdown that he writes up on each fight and fighter....

Alot of you guys bring as well on these event threads.. More info the better I always say ..

[Auto Donk]

Part 2 - MMAMANIA Patrick Stewart..


205 lbs.: Khalil Rountreevs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Despite getting a second chance after his first loss, Khalil Rountree (6-2) fell short on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23 thanks to Andrew Sanchez grappling him into the dirt at the Finale. His struggles continued in his subsequent loss to Tyson Pedro, but brutal knockouts of Daniel Jolly and Paul Craig have put him back on the map at 205 pounds.
All four of his professional knockout victories have come in the first round.
Michal Oleksiejczuk (12-2) racked up nine consecutive victories in his native Poland before answering the call to face Ion Cutelaba at UFC 217. Unfortunately for “The Hummer” and his fans, Cutelaba ran afoul of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) at the last minute and was forced to withdraw.
He replaces the injured Gokhan Saki on short notice.
Oleksiejczuk dodged a bullet when Cutelaba got nabbed. Unfortunately for him, he’s running into what might be an even nastier one. Though Rountree can’t match Cutelaba’s furious pace, he’s slicker than the Moldovan and packs even more single-shot power.
Rountree’s ability to handle strong wrestlers remains in doubt, but against the hittable and one-dimensional Oleksiejczuk, the style match up here favors him to an insane degree. He adds another one to his highlight reel via first-round blowout.
Prediction: Rountree via first-round knockout

155 lbs.: Dan Hooker vs. Marc Diakiese

Dan Hooker (14-6) began his UFC career at Featherweight, where he went 3-3 with three stoppage victories. Following his loss to Jason Knight, he moved back to Lightweight and made an immediate impression with a knee knockout of Ross Pearson in his native Auckland.
He stands two inches taller than Marc Diakiese (12-1) and will have two inches of reach.
“Bonecrusher” looked solid in his wins over Lukasz Sajewski and Frankie Perez, but it was his one-punch obliteration of Teemu Packalen that put the young Brit on the map. It so impressed the public that he entered his fight with Drakkar Klose as a major favorite, but ultimately lost a competitive decision after Klose battered his lead leg.
Half of his wins have come by knockout, including three in less than one minute.
Hooker is relentless, strong and deceptively slick. He’s also rather slow, incredibly easy to hit, and mediocre on the mat (not to mention that he has been competing against Featherweight competition for a while). Diakiese’s the better athlete by a massive margin and, while still too undisciplined on the feet, has such an edge in speed and power that it might not make a difference.
If the striking does wind up going Hooker’s way, Diakiese is a strong takedown artist who can at the very least keep Hooker down for long stretches and keep him guessing the rest of the time. Hooker can probably take his best shots, but that just means the beating will last longer. 30-27s across the board for Diakiese.
Prediction: Diakiese via unanimous decision

145 lbs.: Myles Jury vs. Rick Glenn

Myles Jury (16-2) — who lost to Al Iaquinta on TUF 15 — scored six straight UFC victories before running headlong into Donald Cerrone and Charles Oliveira, the latter of whom spoiled his Featherweight debut. He went on to miss the entirety of 2016, though he made up for lost time with a one-round thrashing of Mike De La Torre at UFC 210.
He has stopped 10 opponents in less than three minutes apiece.
Rick Glenn (20-4) moved up in weight to face Evan Dunham on short notice and, though he struggled against his larger foe, went home with a “Fight of the Night” bonus to ease his pain. “The Gladiator” went on to edge Phillipe Nover before truly announcing his entry into the 145-pound ranks by handing Gavin Tucker the beating of a lifetime at UFC 215.
He is one inch taller than Jury, but will give up three inches of reach.
Glenn’s pace and power can overwhelm a good chunk of UFC’s Featherweight roster. Unfortunately for him, Jury is a former Lightweight with the range and wrestling to do to Glenn what Dunham did. If Glenn can keep it standing and wear Jury down with his volume striking, he has a shot. More likely, Jury picks him off with one-two combinations between takedowns, never letting “The Gladiator” build the momentum he needs to impose his will.
Prediction: Jury via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Louis Smolkavs. Matheus Nicolau

Louis Smolka (11-4) opened his UFC career 5-1, earning two bonuses along the way and putting on one of last year’s best fights against Ben Nguyen. Despite this early success, “The Last Samurai” finds himself on a three-fight losing streak, although his battle with Tim Elliott in April was an instant classic.
He will have an impressive five inches of height over the Brazilian.
Fighting as a Bantamweight, Matheus Nicolau (12-1-1) reached the semifinals of TUF: “Brazil” 4, only to fall to teammate Dileno Lopes. He proceeded to beat Bruno “Korea” and John Moraga, but this will be his first fight in more than one year, as he failed a drug test prior to a planned fight with Yuta Sasaki two Novembers ago.
His professional wins are split evenly between knockouts, submissions and decisions.
Smolka is a phenomenal talent held back by nonexistent and — by his own admission — alcoholism. Now that he’s dealing with the latter, I expect significant improvement from him in all areas of the game and, considering his raw potential, the results could be incredible.
Nicolau is skilled in all areas of the game and, at 24, has plenty of room to grow himself. I just can’t pick against Smolka with his back against the wall. Unless Nicolau can box him up something fierce, Smolka catches him in transition for another impressive finish.
Prediction: Smolka via second-round submission

145 lbs.: Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (18-1) vs. Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm (11-3)

If this were a pure striking battle, Holly Holm would have a very real shot at the upset. While “Cyborg” isn’t the mindless brawler some perceive her to be, but she’s still a very straightforward striker. Her fight with Jorina Baars showed the gap between her Muay Thai and that of a true world-class competitor. Even her colossal power can’t bridge that gap.
Luckily, this isn’t a pure striking battle.
“Cyborg” has come a long, long way since accidentally pulling mount against Gina Carano. She’s become a strong wrestler and ground-and-pound artist, as demonstrated by her dissection of Marloes Coenen in their rematch. In addition, she has the confidence and variety in her striking to close the distance against Holm far better than Miesha Tate or Ronda Rousey did.
Unless Holm can slam home her left high kick in the first three minutes or so, “Cyborg” is going to get her to the ground, and there’s basically nothing Holm can do to her once it gets there. Justino overpowers her with takedowns and clinchwork until she gets the TKO stoppage.
Prediction: Justino by second-round TKO

155 lbs.: Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov (24-0) vs. Edson Barboza (19-4)

The thing about Edson Barboza’s style is that it just doesn’t work moving backwards. That’s not to say he hasn’t made huge improvements in his ability to fight off the back foot; he landed some brutal counters on Michael Johnson and Tony Ferguson, not to mention that incredible knee he used to wipe out Beneil Dariush, but he’s still much less effective when he can’t force his opponents to retreat.
Khabib Nurmagomedov does not retreat.
Though his striking is still more reliant on eagerness than fluidity, his chin and relentlessness are enough to get him in takedown range against pretty much anyone below 170 pounds. Even someone with A+ takedown defense and scrambling ability like Barboza isn’t immune; Khabib has an almost inhuman ability to transition from any kind of grip to a successful takedown. Once he’s on you, he’s almost impossible to shake off.
Barboza’s best weapons, those freakishly fast kicks, open him to that killer grip. And even that assumes he’ll be able to throw them at all with Nurmagomedov hunting him down.
Barboza certainly has the skills for a freak KO out of nowhere, but it’s more likely Khabib gets ahold of a body lock and puts him through the grinder before choking him out late.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov by third-round submission

155 lbs.: Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (14-6) vs. Marc “Bonecrusher” Diakiese (12-1)

Dan Hooker began his UFC career at Featherweight, where he went 3-3 with three stoppage victories. Following his loss to Jason Knight, he moved back to Lightweight and made an immediate impression with a knee knockout of Ross Pearson in his native Auckland.
He stands two inches taller than Marc Diakiese and will have two inches of reach.
“Bonecrusher” looked solid in his wins over Lukasz Sajewski and Frankie Perez, but it was his one-punch obliteration of Teemu Packalen that put the young Brit on the map. It so impressed the public that he entered his fight with Drakkar Klose as a major favorite, but ultimately lost a competitive decision after Klose battered his lead leg.
Half of his wins have come by knockout, including three in less than one minute.
Hooker is relentless, strong and deceptively slick. He’s also rather slow, incredibly easy to hit, and mediocre on the mat (not to mention that he has been competing against Featherweight competition for a while). Diakiese’s the better athlete by a massive margin and, while still too undisciplined on the feet, has such an edge in speed and power that it might not make a difference.
If the striking does wind up going Hooker’s way, Diakiese is a strong takedown artist who can at the very least keep Hooker down for long stretches and keep him guessing the rest of the time. Hooker can probably take his best shots, but that just means the beating will last longer. 30-27s across the board for Diakiese.
Prediction: Diakiese via unanimous decision

115 lbs.: Cynthia Calvillo (6-0) vs. Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza (12-4)

Calvillo is a phenomenal grappler and a true blue-chip prospect. What she isn’t is proven against top-notch wrestlers; her best UFC win was a close fight against Joanne Calderwood and one of her three victories in the promotion came against Pearl Gonzalez, who turned in one of the worst performances in UFC history her next time out.
While the division has evolved past the point where someone like Esparza can use singularly potent takedowns to compensate for iffy striking, she’s still easily one of the three best wrestlers at 115. She’s overpowered the likes of Tecia Torres and Julianna Lima, while Calvillo has yet to face a takedown artist more effective than Montana De La Rosa or Amanda Cooper.
Calvillo could very well be the future. That future just isn’t here yet. Esparza by decision.
Prediction: Esparza by unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (30-10) vs. Neil Magny (19-6)

It’s been sixteen months since Carlos Condit tapped to Demian Maia. It’s been five years since he’s won consecutive bouts. He is currently on a 2-5 skid with only one win over a current member of the UFC roster in that stretch.
It’s become clear that Condit can no longer find consistent success at the top of the welterweight division. The question is whether Magny belongs among that group.
Even with his recent struggles, I say yes.
Condit, who has never been adept at finding his way inside without taking punishment along the way, is facing a five-inch reach disadvantage against someone he can’t simply wear down with sheer pace. Further, the wrestling is all Magny. Condit’s guard may be “dangerous,” but he has not scored a submission in almost ten years; he’s not stopping Magny off of his back.
Magny was always going to be a difficult matchup for Condit just based on his length, cardio, and wrestling. Condit’s layoff just tips things even more in his favor. Top control carries Magny to a decision victory.
Prediction: Magny by unanimous decision

gold mine of info.... good stuff.... time to go rejuice youwager

[turbozed]

Going for a full unit on De La Rosa.

Guy already had a good shot against to win against Elliot but now with Elliot saying he's been hitting the bottle and emotional since Follis' death, it looks like a spot for a big letdown.

[Shutup]

Want to see Khabib get head kicked. Think Esparza is the best dog out there.

[Slevin07]

Watching fights again Johnson didn't really rock Khabib, he ate the punch. In 2nd round Johnson was avoiding takedowns pretty well but went for a guillotine, Khabib got out and it was over. RDA seemed too accepting as well to grapple, probably somewhat due to his skills on ground. Edson has to keep distance at all costs. Khabib hasn't fought in a while and has weight issues going against him. With all that said, he's undefeated with a good chin. It will take a headkick ko probably to stop him. They got the right guy to do it. I want khabib to win but stylistically a decent matchup.

- mania writeup about fighting when pressured and off backfoot is a good point though. Khabib usually moves forward like Ferguson.

[Thor4140]

I haven't been that impressed with Holm's boxing in the UFC. Her Head Kicks seem like her most potent weapon as you said.

i seen some clips of Holly when she boxed and i can't believe it is the same fighter in MMA. Almost as if her power has been negated from the threat of a takedown. Im just gonna enjoy that one. I have seen some brain dead low IQ holly fights and some good ones. You never know with her. I could see her sticking and moving and peppering Cyborg and getting her all frustrated but im not willing to risk the money to hope for that.

[RussianMike]

Weigh In Notes

First, very very impressed with how Holm looked. Easily the best shape she has ever looked. Appears leaner and stronger. Has pretty much looked the same every fight til this one. Bigger than Cyborg, but as always difficult to tell cause that broad rolls like a fuckin gorilla mixed with some hunchback of Notre Dame. Too hunched over to really get a good read.

Anyone else here thought Condit looked scrawnier or is it just me? He looked terrible.

Finally, who the penetrate is that brutha with the red mohawk? In my experience, it usually doesn't work out great for dudes that go full Diaz Bros at the weigh-in. Unless they have been around the block, those kinds of antics are used a lot by young guys trying to mask their nervous energy.

[RussianMike]

Don't sleep on Holly's footwork. Probably the best in UFC (womens). She's got the reach and size and fight IQ to keep Cyborg off her with stick n move. Looks pretty chizzled for this one, too. I can see Cyborg getting frustrated and losing rounds on points.

[RussianMike]

Magny sure as hell can submit condit.

[Demonata]

Its finally here!!!! I'm so excited. Its Cyborg and khabib time!!!!

[Shagdogy]

Full breakdown of Elliott vs De La Rosa

After winning TUF 24, many people were grumbling aboutElliott's title shot against Mighty Mouse. Elliott had already made a run inthe UFC between 2012 and 2015, going 2-4 and ending on a 3 fight losing streak.During his stint on TUF, Elliot wasn't exactly blasting the competition and wasfortunate to be on the winning side of two very close decisions against EricShelton and Hiromasa Ogikubo.

So when Elliot put on the performance of his life inthe early goings of his fight against DJ, winning the first round and stayingrelatively competitive throughout the fight (i.e., not getting blasted andsurviving to the final bell) many were pleasantly surprised by his performance.Typical of fickle mma fans, the pendulum swung in the other direction andElliot's stock rose.

Elliott was made a 2-1 favorite against Louis Smolka,who though a scrappy scrambler like Elliott, was controlled and out-muscledthroughout the fight. Elliott was again made a 2-1 favorite against flyweighttalent Ben Nguyen. This time, Elliott's wild and uncontrolled style would notwin out against the more precise striking and the technical grappling of Nguyenwho surprised most by submitting Elliott in a first round flawless victory.

To look so good against the GOAT but to look sohelpless against Nguyen has left many of us scratching our heads about what tomake of Elliott. Certainly, Elliott is a crafty and competent submissiongrappler. Against lower level fighters, he will find a way to get a submissionor control enough of the mat exchanges to get a decision. However, he does notsignificantly overpower any of his opponents (except for Smolka who seems to beone of the physically weakest flyweights to find any success in the UFC). Elliott'sstriking is also a big weakness in his game, as most UFC level fighters canoutland Elliott and force him to dive forward for clinches and takedowns.Elliott will be fighting at 135 lbs for the first time since 2011 against Mark DeLa Rosa.

DLR is a promising young bantamweight with a 9-0 prorecord. DLR experienced some controversy for not showing up to a Legacy FCtitle fight despite weighing in the day before. His opponent had missed weightby several pounds after a few weigh-in attempts and Legacy FC decided to movethe scales to a private room for a final weigh in, which seemed shady enoughfor DLR to walk away from Legacy FC altogether. Though being assured by LegacyFC that he was committing career suicide to not show up for the match, he wasquickly signed thereafter to Combate and now is making his UFC debut.

Aside from not taking bullshit from promotors, there'sa lot to like about DLR. On the feet, he's developed a sharp and mobilestriking style. Staying light on his toes, he's able to fire straight compactpunches whether moving forwards or backwards. His distance management andtiming look good, as well as his defensive guard and chin. Though sometimes hewill put his back on the fence, he has the presence of mind to circle outduring breaks in his opponent's strikes.

DLR appears to be a competent grappler, findingsuccess with single leg TDs and throws against the fence. He appears reasonablystrong for BW, matching up evenly with some opponents and dominating someweaker opponents.

His grappling will have to be on point in order tokeep Elliott at bay, however. DLR will have a significant advantage on the feetbut should expect to have Elliott hanging on him. Pushed against the cage, DLRstays composed and clinches up well. If his opponent does get him to theground, he's been able to pop back up and reverse. However, DLR has beenfighting significantly lesser competition so it is difficult to tell how hewill fare.

This question may be answered soon in the fight sinceElliott doesn't really wait around very long before putting it on his opponent.There's a good chance that a veteran like Elliott will be a bit too much forthe young DLR and we see DLR forced into positions where all he can do isdefend or tap to a submission. However, there's also a decent chance that DLRcan keep Elliott at bay with his defensive footwork and counterstriking, andforce Elliott to try to clinch against the cage, where he can make the fight a50/50 engagement and attempt to back off to strike some more. I'll be keeping aclose eye on the size difference between the two at weigh-ins to see if DLRwill have an advantage there. If there is an advantage and it plays out as astrength advantage in the cage, DLR's odds of winning increasesignificantly.

Coming in on 11 days notice, and making his UFC debut,DLR can be expected to be a sizeable underdog. Value should be on DLR at longodds and/or DLR winning by decision.

*DLR is now a +175 underdog. Was hopingfor +225 or better. Plan is to wait to see if it improves and check outhow both fighters look during weighins. Also am soliciting more info about eachDLR's wrestling/scrambling ability. If solid, then will probably be backing himhere.

Turbo! I'm late to this DLR party, but after watching his fight with Oliveira, I like his chances in this one. Were you ever able to find out/see more of his wrestling/scrambling? All I found was some real old stuff where he must've been no older than 18. Probably not relevant.

He did not look to have much, if any, size advantage at weigh ins. He looks pretty small in the cage and a little bit soft. He may actually be someone who could move down, but his hand speed and footwork advantage was very evident against Oliveira. I also like how busy and varied his left hand is in particular. Elliott loves to duck down to his right where a sharp, accurate, left hand could tag him up with nice short shots.

I know you're a full unit on DLR now after hearing about Elliott's struggles. At +195 I think he's worth a play for sure. Like you, I would be more confident if I could see him tested by a physically strong grappler (although admittedly Oliveira did look a bit stronger, but didn't use his wrestling much). Let me know if you have any other info.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Cyborg looks scury

[PaperTrail07]

footwork this that lol....cyborg is a man fighting in womens division who has ALSO used roids LOL....LOOOK OUT 1st round TKO

[PaperTrail07]

Look at that JAW lol...

[Auto Donk]

jibby, i'm chargin' up my youwager acct and letting a couple big parlays rip today....

give me your top four ufc locks for tonight, please....

[Auto Donk]

cyborg makes JJ Gold look like a sexy f'n woman..... JJ has such soft features in comparison




i'd kick cyborg in the nuts as soon as the bell rang to start the fight, and then run away.....

[JIBBBY]

Cyborg looks scury

She always looks scary... I say check for man junk to verify gender ..

[turbozed]

Turbo! I'm late to this DLR party, but after watching his fight with Oliveira, I like his chances in this one. Were you ever able to find out/see more of his wrestling/scrambling? All I found was some real old stuff where he must've been no older than 18. Probably not relevant.

He did not look to have much, if any, size advantage at weigh ins. He looks pretty small in the cage and a little bit soft. He may actually be someone who could move down, but his hand speed and footwork advantage was very evident against Oliveira. I also like how busy and varied his left hand is in particular. Elliott loves to duck down to his right where a sharp, accurate, left hand could tag him up with nice short shots.

I know you're a full unit on DLR now after hearing about Elliott's struggles. At +195 I think he's worth a play for sure. Like you, I would be more confident if I could see him tested by a physically strong grappler (although admittedly Oliveira did look a bit stronger, but didn't use his wrestling much). Let me know if you have any other info.

I wasn't able to find tape and witness it with my own eyes but word on the street is that he's a BJJ black belt and a competent wrestler. I know that's not much but there's always a gamble involved when taking 2-1 dogs (except Lovato recently, that was just ridiculous).

Good luck!

[Demonata]

cyborg makes JJ Gold look like a sexy f'n woman..... JJ has such soft features in comparison




i'd kick cyborg in the nuts as soon as the bell rang to start the fight, and then run away.....

I want to bang cyborg so bad!