Eccocide's MMA Picks

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Makovsky/Grant 2-fight parlay (+125) 2.25 units to win 2.81 units

Makovsky took care of business last night so the parlay carries forward to Saturday. I honestly didn't find much value in taking a side in most of the fights but I definitely like what i saw in the round props. I expect a lot of decisions tomorrow and if thats the case it should be a good night for me. Otherwise .


UFC 119 Recap:

Mitrione/Beltran Starts Round 3 (-114) 2.85 units to win 2.5 units
Doerksen/Dollaway Starts Round 3 (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Steve Lopez (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Doersken by Sub (+534) 0.5 units to win 2.67 units
Sherk by Decision (+387) 1 unit to win 3.87 units
Chris Lytle (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Makovsky/Grant 2-fight parlay (+125) 2.25 units to win 2.81 units
CroCop-Mir starts round 2 / Sherk-Dunham starts round 2 - 2-fight parlay (-103) 2.575 units to win 2.5 units

GL tomorrow everyone!

[Eccocide]

Makovsky took care of business last night so the parlay carries forward to Saturday. I honestly didn't find much value in taking a side in most of the fights but I definitely like what i saw in the round props. I expect a lot of decisions tomorrow and if thats the case it should be a good night for me. Otherwise .


UFC 119 Recap:

Mitrione/Beltran Starts Round 3 (-114) 2.85 units to win 2.5 units
Doerksen/Dollaway Starts Round 3 (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Steve Lopez (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Doersken by Sub (+534) 0.5 units to win 2.67 units
Sherk by Decision (+387) 1 unit to win 3.87 units
Chris Lytle (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Makovsky/Grant 2-fight parlay (+125) 2.25 units to win 2.81 units
CroCop-Mir starts round 2 / Sherk-Dunham starts round 2 - 2-fight parlay (-103) 2.575 units to win 2.5 units

GL tomorrow everyone!

Considering adding a little more on Lytle. The WHOLE WORLD likes Serra tonight and the line hasn't moved at all. I'd say 75% of the forums, blogs, predictions for this fight have chosen Serra and when thats the case in a fight where the line is this close, the public favourite almost always loses. I was already on Lytle to begin with but this just makes it even more intriguing. I may see how some of my undercard bets perfom before I decide If I will had more.

[koscheckbaby]

You got good logic on that. Even in Serra's video blog, he didn't know why he was the dog and was surprised. It does seem like whatever the public likes and yet the line ain't moving, Lytle will likely win

Thoughts on McCorkle. He fights on the ground and has been training strictly wrestling for this fight. I feel like Hunt's time to improve has passed and he'll be a turtle on his back, Pudz vs Butterbean style.

[Shagdogy]

Good point for the Serra/Lytle fight. You always have to worry when the books stay stubborn and ALL the money's coming in on one guy. I'm on Serra, so I'm one of the many hoping. I think the best play here is for it to go to decision, or Lytle by decision if you believe he's going to win.

[Eccocide]

You got good logic on that. Even in Serra's video blog, he didn't know why he was the dog and was surprised. It does seem like whatever the public likes and yet the line ain't moving, Lytle will likely win

Thoughts on McCorkle. He fights on the ground and has been training strictly wrestling for this fight. I feel like Hunt's time to improve has passed and he'll be a turtle on his back, Pudz vs Butterbean style.

Tough fight to analyze as Hunt hasn't fought in forever and McCorkle hasnt fought any competition. I can't even call the guys he fought cans as it would disrespect the true cans out there lol. His best competiton is Ivey who was 300+ pounds of uselessness. Hunt is a veteran and has fought the best in the sport. From what I've seen of his training camp, he looks to be in great shape and is taking this opportunity very seriously. I just don't know if its too late for him as he's now 36 and has a lot of wear and tear on him. I think Hunts experience and standup are going to be huge for him and he hits like a truck. McCorkle is huge though and should have the strength advantage which can help him get the fight to the ground. With the little I have seen of him though, I'm not impressed at all and would pass on this fight.

Good point for the Serra/Lytle fight. You always have to worry when the books stay stubborn and ALL the money's coming in on one guy. I'm on Serra, so I'm one of the many hoping. I think the best play here is for it to go to decision, or Lytle by decision if you believe he's going to win.

I think it goes to a decision as well but the odds are too heavy for a play. If it does go to the judges I hope Lytle gets some extra love from his hometown crew .

[Eccocide]

Beltran has the speed and footwork advantage and I think we will see a very similar style to the fight he had vs. Hague. He's going to look to pick his shots and get out of harms way, at least until he starts to slow down and gas. Mitrione has shown to be a very patient fighter and I believe he will want to keep the distance so he can use his length to his advantage. With no threat of the takedown, I expect to see him throw a lot of kicks to slow Beltran down. I expect to see a methodical pace for the first half of the fight with both guys trying to establish control. Once they start to gas, things will prolly get sloppy but I'm hoping that isnt until the third round lol. Also, Mitrione has a great chin as shown in most of his fights, especially that vs Scott Junk. I can't see him getting KOed unless its very late in the fight. Beltran has also shown a great chin although I'm not sure he has taken a clean shot from a guy as strong as Mitrione. Thats pretty much the only worry I have is Beltran getting caught once the leg kicks start to take there toll and his footwork slows.

As for the the Sherk bet, its a small bet for me. Anything a unit or less is usually a value bet for me and this is definitely the case in this fight. I don't disagree with most of what you wrote, but anytime I can get Sherk at +387 I prolly won't pass. Just some thoughts on this fight. First, I don't expect the ringrust as you alluded to. Sherk hasn't fought in 16 months but he's had 3 training camps during that timeframe. He injured his elbow for his fight with Tibau and suffered a bad cut in training which caused him to pull out of his fight with Miller. He basically had full training camps for both fights so I expect him to be in game shape for this one. As for Dunhams length, he hasnt really shown the ability to use his length to his advantage quite yet. He doesn't use much of a jab to keep range and Sherk has a great knack for getting inside on guys that have a massive reach against him. His fight with Nick Diaz is a prime example. He also has explosive takedowns and has a great sense of timing on when to shoot in without even setting it up. If I could choose a gameplan for him it would be a mix of his fight with Diaz and his fight with Griffin. If he comes in with a solid gameplan like he did in these fights, I think he has a solid chance to get the win. Dunham is a beast though so he will have to execute pretty flawlessly to get the W.

One other thing I would say is if you like Dunham, I'd consider him by Decision @ -107. Much better than laying -220 or so as I can't see him finishing Sherk.

[koscheckbaby]

It sounded like you were picking Beltran, but you're taking it to get to round 3. Good bet. Meat's power might be overrated too. He landed so clean in a few of his TUF fights with no finishes. Marcus Jones just has a glass chin. And I think Meat's chin is real.

[Vaughany]

One other thing I would say is if you like Dunham, I'd consider him by Decision @ -107. Much better than laying -220 or so as I can't see him finishing Sherk.

Yep I agree, no way I see Dunham finishing Sherk or vice-versa. Glad I got Dunham by decision at +137.5!

[snake11eyes]

UFC 119 Recap:

Mitrione/Beltran Starts Round 3 (-114) 2.85 units to win 2.5 units
Doerksen/Dollaway Starts Round 3 (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Steve Lopez (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Doersken by Sub (+534) 0.5 units to win 2.67 units
Sherk by Decision (+387) 1 unit to win 3.87 units
Chris Lytle (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Makovsky/Grant 2-fight parlay (+125) 2.25 units to win 2.81 units
CroCop-Mir starts round 2 / Sherk-Dunham starts round 2 - 2-fight parlay (-103) 2.575 units to win 2.5 units

GL tomorrow everyone!

Glad to see your on Lytle too. Not many of us.

[Vaughany]

Got a feeling ur Sherk bet is gonna come through.

[Eccocide]

Makovsky took care of business last night so the parlay carries forward to Saturday. I honestly didn't find much value in taking a side in most of the fights but I definitely like what i saw in the round props. I expect a lot of decisions tomorrow and if thats the case it should be a good night for me. Otherwise .


UFC 119 Recap:

Mitrione/Beltran Starts Round 3 (-114) 2.85 units to win 2.5 units
Doerksen/Dollaway Starts Round 3 (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Steve Lopez (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Doersken by Sub (+534) 0.5 units to win 2.67 units
Sherk by Decision (+387) 1 unit to win 3.87 units
Chris Lytle (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Makovsky/Grant 2-fight parlay (+125) 2.25 units to win 2.81 units
CroCop-Mir starts round 2 / Sherk-Dunham starts round 2 - 2-fight parlay (-103) 2.575 units to win 2.5 units

GL tomorrow everyone!

Another big night for me! The main event was atrocious. Both Mir and CroCop looked horrible. My bet to last the first round was prolly the easiest Ive had in a while though so i cant complain. I really should have put more on lytle. I knew exactly how that fight would go and the public backing Serra as a dog was the icing on the cake but Ill take the win none the less. I didnt think the Sherk decision was as bad as ppl are saying but I guess I was on the right side of it lol. Hope everyone had a good night!

UFC 119 Results: +9.22 units



+17.14 over the past 2 UFC cards.

[illmatick]

very nice !!

[Vaughany]

Gd shit brah! That Sherk decision was a robbery for sure tho!

[lasker]

Great results Ecco, very solid picks as usual. Gotta say I'm not sure how anyone can defend the Sherk vs Dunham decision robbery, but no denying that you were on the right side of it!

[Eccocide]

Honestly, I missed the 3rd round cuz I was in the pisser but I hear it was clearly Dunhams Round. The first was clearly Sherks IMO and I thought the second was a toss up. I may have watched it through Sherk-beer goggles though so Im not gunna debate the result lol. Sorry it didnt work out for some - believe me, Ive been on my fair share of bad decisions!! (cough cough, bellator, im looking directly at you - Imada/Curran, Warren/Friere!!!)

[Vaughany]

Anybody know who got FOTN?

[Eccocide]

Anybody know who got FOTN?

Both Sherk/Dunham and Beltran/Mitrione won FOTN. Dollaway got sub of the night. No KO of the night awarded. Mir had the only KO but I think Dana was embarrassed by the main event so Frank wasnt getting shit lol.

[Shagdogy]

Congrats. Nice night.

[Eccocide]

Missed the openers as usual, but for whatever reason Pinnacle has lines out before everyone but bookmaker. They never have lines out this early. Missed Hominick as a dog but was able to get him at Pinnacle at a better price than what was available at the time at bookmaker.

WEC 51:

Hominick (-121) 2.42 units to win 2 units
Demetrious Johnson (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units

More to come..

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Zhang (-166) 2.49 units to win 1.5 units

[rocky mattioli]

Adding:

Zhang (-166) 2.49 units to win 1.5 units

http://www.ultimatefighter.com/fight-videos/tuf-12-pablo-garza-michael-johnson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Ni9lA8rmk

both fighters on tape..more info for everyone...noticed that zhang is listed at around 165...garza 145-155....

[KCJMAC]

Thanks guys for the tips and the clips. Zhang is at -130 now and getting better. I'm convinced.

[Eccocide]

I dont understand the line movement at all on the Zhang fight. He's the bigger fighter, better wrestler and better grappler. I've seen a bunch of his Art of War fights and he looks much crisper in all aspects compared to what Ive seen of Garza. Granted, The Mongolian Wolf hasnt fought any name competition but neither has Garza. Garza will have height and reach advantage but he is a small 155er. Maybe its a fade of an Asian fighter or the fact that Garza was on TUF, Im not sure. Add to this the fact that I dont see Zuffa putting their hometown ticket into the Chinese market in a difficult matchup on short notice. I may have to add more on him at this price.

[koscheckbaby]

Whatever link to that Chinese fighter was put up here, I was unimpressed. It looked like he was fighting an old man and he got reversed from mount fairly easily. His triangle took awhile to setup too. It didn't seem very impressive at all.

I don't know about his opponent at all. The Chinese guy likely will win, but seeing his fight turned me off from playing it.

[terpkeg]

I dont understand the line movement at all on the Zhang fight. He's the bigger fighter, better wrestler and better grappler. I've seen a bunch of his Art of War fights and he looks much crisper in all aspects compared to what Ive seen of Garza. Granted, The Mongolian Wolf hasnt fought any name competition but neither has Garza. Garza will have height and reach advantage but he is a small 155er. Maybe its a fade of an Asian fighter or the fact that Garza was on TUF, Im not sure. Add to this the fact that I dont see Zuffa putting their hometown ticket into the Chinese market in a difficult matchup on short notice. I may have to add more on him at this price.

didnt he just take this fight 2-3 days ago? anyone know if he was training for another fight?

[necro]

nothin new known

[urge2kill]

didnt he just take this fight 2-3 days ago? anyone know if he was training for another fight?

He was already training. He had a couple of other opponents lined up before Garza.

[Eccocide]

He was already training. He had a couple of other opponents lined up before Garza.

I assume he is talking about Garza. Zhang has known he has been fighting on this card for a couple months. He's had a full training camp. Based on the information I have heard, Garza is coming in cold. He didnt have to worry about a weight cut because he is a natural 145er. So basically no training camp other than his normal routine and fighting above his weight class....I really cant figure out the line movement lol.

[koscheckbaby]

My guess is that Chinese guy has looked like crap from the clips. I was all for jumping on him, but his fights were such a turnoff to me. Plus, fading the Asian fighters doesn't seem so bad. How can a Chinese guy really get a good training camp? China's not exactly a hotbed for MMA talent yet.

[Eccocide]

My guess is that Chinese guy has looked like crap from the clips. I was all for jumping on him, but his fights were such a turnoff to me. Plus, fading the Asian fighters doesn't seem so bad. How can a Chinese guy really get a good training camp? China's not exactly a hotbed for MMA talent yet.

Like i said Ive seen a handful of his AOW fights and he is the more skilled fighter. Guess we will find out soon enough!


Adding:

Varner by Decision (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units

[Shagdogy]

Love the Varner by decision bet. I put 1 unit on it just before I read this. I also dropped 1.4 on Varner money line to win 1, just in case. I really think Varner takes this fight.

[Vaughany]

Like i said Ive seen a handful of his AOW fights and he is the more skilled fighter. Guess we will find out soon enough!


Adding:

Varner by Decision (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units

Yep great bet! U didnt get that on Pinnacle did u?! Ive finally signed up, am I being retarded or do they not let you do MMA parlays?

[Eccocide]

Love the Varner by decision bet. I put 1 unit on it just before I read this. I also dropped 1.4 on Varner money line to win 1, just in case. I really think Varner takes this fight.

Pains me to say it but i agree lol. I despise Varner but he's a bad matchup for Cerrone as he has shown in the past.

Well here I go getting carried away, adding a couple more bets. This should be the final card.


WEC 51 Recap:

Hominick (-121) 2.42 units to win 2 units
Demetrious Johnson (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Zhang (-166) 2.49 units to win 1.5 units
Varner by Decision (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Roop/Jung doesn't go the distance (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
Horodecki/MTB 2-fight parlay (+116) 1.35 units to win 1.57 units

GL tonight!

[Eccocide]

Yep great bet! U didnt get that on Pinnacle did u?! Ive finally signed up, am I being retarded or do they not let you do MMA parlays?

Na, they for the most part don't allow MMA parlays. For some of the bigger cards they sometimes allow it. I would suspect they will most likely do it for UFC 121.

[Vaughany]

Na, they for the most part don't allow MMA parlays. For some of the bigger cards they sometimes allow it. I would suspect they will most likely do it for UFC 121.

Ah right cheers, GL tonight, let's hope the Mongolian Wolf gets the job done!