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Final plays below. I may have gotten a little too fancy with the parlays and props so we will see if that haunts me lol. Tough card to cap. Should be a lot of close fights.
UFN 22:
Palhares/Marquardt Starts Round 3 (-148) 2.96 units to win 2 units
Tibau by Decision (+181) 1.5 units to win 2.715 units
Waldburger (+190) 1.25 units to win 2.375 units
Foster/Tibau-Miller starts round 2/Not Escudero by Submission 3-fight parlay (+102) 2.5 units to win 2.55 units
Natal/Tibau-Miller starts round 2/Not Palhares by TKO 3-fight parlay (-111) 2.22 units to win 2 units
Oliveira by Submission (+475) 0.5 units to win 2.375 units
GL tomorrow!Comment -
loving the tibau by dec. play..... was on tibau from the start and got him at +170Comment -
Like the Grove play as well, he should either KO Oleinik early or get a decision, as long as he doesnt get heel-hooked like he did in the UFC. Paddypower havnt released the lines yet, im thinking of making a small play on Grabowski as well if he's at 4/1 or better on PP.Comment -
Long Shot for the night:
Kingsbury/Hamman FOTN (+1200) 0.25 units to win 3 units
UFN 22 Recap:
Palhares/Marquardt Starts Round 3 (-148) 2.96 units to win 2 units
Tibau by Decision (+181) 1.5 units to win 2.715 units
Waldburger (+190) 1.25 units to win 2.375 units
Foster/Tibau-Miller starts round 2/Not Escudero by Submission 3-fight parlay (+102) 2.5 units to win 2.55 units
Natal/Tibau-Miller starts round 2/Not Palhares by TKO 3-fight parlay (-111) 2.22 units to win 2 units
Oliveira by Submission (+475) 0.5 units to win 2.375 units
Marquardt/Foster 2-fight parlay (-103) 2.06 units to win 2 units
Kingsbury/Hamman FOTN (+1200) 0.25 units to win 3 unitsComment -
Foster first round TKOComment -
Blah, I jinxed Natal and lost the decision lol. Not the gameplan I expected from him and he got clipped being sloppy a couple of times from what I've read. Oh well onto the main card!Comment -
I will regret this but I've been staring at it for 2 days and its back to its peak...I know many will disagree but I think its worth the value.
Adding:
Cole Miller (+230) 1 unit to win 2.3 unitsComment -
The lines been dropping hard. (in pinnacle) Ross was about -275 last night. He is -210 as of now... Do you really think Cole has a chance to sub Pearson? I'm seriously considering dropping a boat load on Ross.Comment -
your fotn wager with kings/hamman looks promising...Comment -
good shit ecco..this is why you're one of the best
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Great night of fights. Ready for UFC 119.. Cro Cop anyone?Comment -
Thanks man. You had a great night tonight! You're on quite a run!
Thanks Philly! I was a little worried when Do Bronx couldnt land the takedown or pull guard but he improvised
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It was a winner! Couldn't pass up 2 guys willing to stand and trade having +1200 odds and having the longest odds of all of the fights. I was really surprised to see the odds this high.
UFN 22 Results: +7.92 Units
I've been hitting some high end props lately which is nice. Hit Anderson by sub, Lauzon fastest sub and Hamman/Kingsbury FOTN over the past few events. Hope everyone had a great night!!Comment -
Nice job once again ecco, I wanted to put most of my plays in after the weighins, but got called into work this morning and never got the chance. It sucks because it was a good night and I only had a couple plays. I should have just put them in last night oh well live and learn.Comment -
Thanks Snake. I will say this about weigh-ins. Its a double edged sword. Usually if you wait till weigh-ins you have a strong chance of losing value in your bet. If you place a bet before the weigh-ins, you may find yourself on the bad end of a gaunt fighter that looks like Christian Bale in the Machinist. IMO, I think its best to place your plays as soon as you see value in the play, regardless if it is before or after the weigh-ins. HOWEVER, in cases where I know a guy has problems making weight or where a guy is a known massive weight-cutter I try to hold off until after the weigh-ins if I feel the line won't shift dramatically. For example, I needed to see what Tibau and Escudero came in at before I placed bets on their fights. Tibau is a known cutter and Escudero has missed weight before. It helped me with the Escudero fight but in a sense hurt me with the Tibau fight. I knew I wanted to play Tibau a couple weeks back but I wanted to make sure he came in at weight and didnt look malnurished. He came in at 154lb and I felt confident but the line had dipped from +180 to +130 by that point. In the end it didnt hurt me as he lost anyway but you see where I am going with it! Its really a tough proposition but I guess you have to do what you feel most comfortable with.Comment -
Nice one! I didnt put anything on in the end due to paddypower releasing the lines late and Grove being at -185.Comment -
btw..."the smart money" mma predictions site seems to have disappeared into the ether after 2 bad outings......lol
beware of false prophets...paying attention to what is provided on this board and hearing all the give and take is the way to go...
congrats eccocide and everyone for contributing to a very successful ufn 22...
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Any Bellator plas tonight Ecco? Im liking Vega again as underdog if Paddypower eventually release the lines. Also like Baker if it comes out better than -180.Comment -
Been reallllly busy this week and have been using most of my free time for UFC 119 this weekend. Haven't looked at all into Bellator but it looks like most of the value is gone in both the Baker and Makovsky and those are the 2 I like on the card. Don't really have an opinion on the other 2!Comment -
UFC 119:
Mitrione/Beltran Starts Round 3 (-114) 2.85 units to win 2.5 units
Doerksen/Dollaway Starts Round 3 (-123) 2.46 units to win 2 units
Steve Lopez (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Doersken by Sub (+534) 0.5 units to win 2.67 units
Sherk by Decision (+387) 1 unit to win 3.87 units
More to come.Comment -
Adding:
Makovsky/Grant 2-fight parlay (+125) 2.25 units to win 2.81 unitsComment -
Gotta like your Mitrione/Beltran to start round 3. As long as nobody gets KO'd in the first 2 minutes (and both have strong chins) then these guys will gas and will not have it in them to finish the other. IMO, the only thing you have to watch out for is if one of them gasses so bad he can't defend himself.
I was looking at the Sherk by decision bet for a while, but I just couldn't talk myself in to it. The long layoff is a factor, but more than anything it's Dunham's length. I think he will have an undeniable advantage on the feet (Sherk LOVES to throw hard left hooks about 2 feet away from his opponents), and Sherk will be forced to shoot from a distance. With long range shots coming his way, I think Dunham will sprawl his full length out on top of Sherk and wear him down over time. Even if Sherk wins round 1 with his wrestling, I can't see him doing it for 3 or even 2 rounds. Pretty solid odds for it though. Good luck!Comment -
No time right now but I'll give my thoughts on the Sheri fight later if I get a chance.
Adding:
CroCop/Mir starts round 2 / Sherk/Dunham starts round 2 - two fight parlay (-103) 2.575 units to win 2.5 unitsComment -
Beltran has the speed and footwork advantage and I think we will see a very similar style to the fight he had vs. Hague. He's going to look to pick his shots and get out of harms way, at least until he starts to slow down and gas. Mitrione has shown to be a very patient fighter and I believe he will want to keep the distance so he can use his length to his advantage. With no threat of the takedown, I expect to see him throw a lot of kicks to slow Beltran down. I expect to see a methodical pace for the first half of the fight with both guys trying to establish control. Once they start to gas, things will prolly get sloppy but I'm hoping that isnt until the third round lol. Also, Mitrione has a great chin as shown in most of his fights, especially that vs Scott Junk. I can't see him getting KOed unless its very late in the fight. Beltran has also shown a great chin although I'm not sure he has taken a clean shot from a guy as strong as Mitrione. Thats pretty much the only worry I have is Beltran getting caught once the leg kicks start to take there toll and his footwork slows.
As for the the Sherk bet, its a small bet for me. Anything a unit or less is usually a value bet for me and this is definitely the case in this fight. I don't disagree with most of what you wrote, but anytime I can get Sherk at +387 I prolly won't pass. Just some thoughts on this fight. First, I don't expect the ringrust as you alluded to. Sherk hasn't fought in 16 months but he's had 3 training camps during that timeframe. He injured his elbow for his fight with Tibau and suffered a bad cut in training which caused him to pull out of his fight with Miller. He basically had full training camps for both fights so I expect him to be in game shape for this one. As for Dunhams length, he hasnt really shown the ability to use his length to his advantage quite yet. He doesn't use much of a jab to keep range and Sherk has a great knack for getting inside on guys that have a massive reach against him. His fight with Nick Diaz is a prime example. He also has explosive takedowns and has a great sense of timing on when to shoot in without even setting it up. If I could choose a gameplan for him it would be a mix of his fight with Diaz and his fight with Griffin. If he comes in with a solid gameplan like he did in these fights, I think he has a solid chance to get the win. Dunham is a beast though so he will have to execute pretty flawlessly to get the W.Comment
