Originally posted by Vaughany
I'm just making sure I learn from my mistakes
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Touche.
I'm just making sure I learn from my mistakes
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ha dont remind me...still bitter!Originally posted by Fiasco01Touche.
I'm just making sure I learn from my mistakes
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I went back and forth on this play and tried to get myself to forget about it because my card is already a pretty decent size but I had to do it or it would have bugged me all weekend lol. One last add and my card should be final.
Adding:
Diaz/Davis Starts Round 3 (-113) 1.695 units to win 1.5 units
UFC 118 Recap:
Ken Florian (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units
Andre Winner (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Nick Osipzak (-130) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
Miranda (+180) 2 units to win 3.6 units & (+170) 0.75 units to win 1.275 units
Mike Pierce/Penn-Edgar starts round 2/Diaz-Davis starts round 2 - three fight parlay (+105) 2.5 units to win 2.625 units
Diaz/Davis Starts Round 3 (-113) 1.695 units to win 1.5 units
Flyers:
Pierce quickest TKO (+1100) 0.25 units to win 2.75 units
Lauzon quickest sub (+1600) 0.25 units to win 4 units
Hedge:
Maia by sub/Maynard by decision/Couture inside the distance/Mike Pierce 4-fight parlay 0.5 units to win 5.9 units.
That SHOULD be my final card. I don't imagine myself adding anything else....well I just saw on Pinnacle that they have Couture/Toney over 0.5 rounds for -170 which is tempting to me....2:30 seconds....can Toney hang on that long? How long will Randy take to set up a shoot and take him down??.....blah this fight is giving me headaches hahaha. Anyway, final card for now. GL to everyone tomorrow. Hope its a profitable one!Comment -
I think it will go over 2:30...could be value at -170...I could see them being hesitant and staring at each other for a minute or so whilst Couture picks his moment to shoot! Who knows with this fight...as long as Couture finishes it in first round im happy!Originally posted by EccocideComment -
I really think there is value at that price. Like you said, Randy isnt going to just dive across the cage at Toney's legs. I think he will take some time to see what Toney's stance looks like, decide how he will set up the shoot based on what he sees, and push Toney up against the cage before he scoops him for a double. All of that alone can take a couple minutes. Once it hits the ground, who knows, it could be over quick. But 2:30 seems like a very short period of time to work with.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
best of luck tomorrow sir, love the cardComment -
This will be the easiest takedown of Randy's career, I would think, and once it hits the ground it should end very quickly. Not saying the over 0.5 rounds for -170 won't hit, but I actually have a feeling this fight will end within two minutes.Comment -
ty sir. GL to you as well!Originally posted by ddream1
Well it doesnt matter now because the line has already moved to -208 in a matter of minutes! Value gone = no play for me. But for the record I do think it will go over 2:30Originally posted by lasker
. GL tomorrow Lasker!
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You too Eccocide
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Guys... I think the fact that Maynard has had 6 straight decisions has to be a benefit to Florian in this case. Florian has been the number one ambassador for the UFC in Boston and he will have the hometown on his side more than anyone. If this fight goes the distance, he could get the Bisping treatment in his fight vs. Hamill. I think Gray will have to DOMINATE completely to win a decision. Anything remotely close will go to Florian. I know it's Maynard's bread and butter, but the decision might betray him in this fight. I've been waiting and waiting to make my plays, but I have yet to find a good enough reason to go against Florian. I know you all like him, but I'm not sure the straddle with Gray is the greatest, because I think he may have to finish Florian to win this fight. I can't see Kenny being dominated clearly for 3 rounds.Comment -
Originally posted by Shagdogy
i agree with most of this...homecourt is a big advantage in a fight that certainly looks headed to the judges...hoping that florian is able to keep distance with maynard(imo,maynard`s become over-enamored with his own striking...and that`s a plus for florian backers)......if he takes that tack,we should see something similar to penn/edgar(only not as close)....
maynard needs to live up to his nic`here and bully/steamroll florian...he has a substantial strength advantage....
i was surprised to see that maynard looked a little taller than florian...
g.l.,allComment -
Appreciate the hard work eccocide. Will be tailing
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Bad luck on the single bets bro...very surprised that both Osipzcak and Winner lost. At least a couple of ur prop bets hit, looks like the Lauzon quickest sub prop has helped big time!Originally posted by EccocideComment -
Well I guess I was due for a bad night after a great run but I was pretty astonished at what I watched last night. I couldnt believe how weak Miranda looked in the clinch and Florian looked so scared to commit to anything until the last half of the 3rd round. I havent watched the Winner or Ozipsak fights but I'm done better against American wrestlers lol. Lauzon quickest sub prop dug me out from a really bad night but Im definitely dissappointed in my results. Back to the drawing board
. Oh and I hate you Demian Maia for not finishing any of your subs cuz thats all I needed for my hedge to hit for a 5 unit swing.
UFC 118 Results: -2.875 unitsComment -
Thanks Ecco, for posting Lauzon by quickest sub just when it came out. It went down to +600 by fight time. I liked it soon as you said it. I put .5u on it at +1600 and still lost a little last night. It's the only bet I won besides for Lauzon.Comment -
NP man. Glad something I posted was useful for last night lol.Comment -
Still did way better than me, and I had Edgar by decision! Put most of my eggs in two baskets (Randy inside the distance/by submission but also Kenny Florian to win), and Florian's loss screwed my parlays. You're a great capper, you'll come back strong.Comment -
Looks like Florian/Gray made me eat my words. Thought he'd do SOMETHING that could push a decision his way, but he was so inactive. Surprised by Miranda's willingness to get within reach of Maia over and over and not even try his luck at range. Bad fights for both he and florian. Didn't see Osipczak, but lost on him as well. Anyone catch that one?Originally posted by ShagdogyComment -
Osipczak owned Soto on his feet throughout the first round. Very close to a TKO. 2nd round he got taken down, worked for some subs, but really couldn't do much, so Soto evened it at 1-1. 3rd round he got taken down again, put in bad positions, cardio seemed to run out, and he lost 2 rounds to 1. He stayed down for quite awhile after the match. Not sure if that was due to cardio or injury.Comment -
tough, it was so surprising how terrible miranda ended up being.Comment -
The thread looks goodComment -
any picks on bellator 27?Comment -
Haven't been around, but yes I have 2 picks for tonight. Nothing big, just some small ones.Originally posted by sundin4prez
Bellator 27:
Ed West (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Zach Makovsky (+120) 1.25 units to win 1.5 units
The Makovsky fight is close to a toss up so I wouldnt recommend to put much on him - I prolly shouldnt have even played it lol. Wouldn't be surprised with a split decision either way.Comment -
I don't know much about Makovsky I've never seen any of his fights. I did watch the last two fights Mamalis fought in Bellator and he looked good. Good luck tonight.Comment -
Bellator 27 Results: 2-0 +3 unitsOriginally posted by Eccocide
Well I made back the losses from 118 lol. Hope everyone has a good night. Not touching the Warren/Soto fight.Comment -
excellent! I'm about to sweat out my Soto play, kinda surprised to see the line move so much.
too bad the movement didn't mean jack in his two previous fights
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Soto should maybe concentrate more on the fight rather than taunting and trying to look like Anderson....sorry bud, get em next time!Originally posted by illmatickexcellent! I'm about to sweat out my Soto play, kinda surprised to see the line move so much.
too bad the movement didn't mean jack in his two previous fightsComment -
lol. I probably posted when the fight was already over. I worked 14 hours and just got home. Anyway nice job ecco, way to bounce back.Comment -
One of the best lines came out this week. Maynard is only -140 over the Little Crap. This is one of the easier matchups to call. Maynard is not a stiff athletically, so it's not like Edgar is gonna be able to run all over him. Maynard has already manhandled him and will again. He looked two weight classes bigger when they fought. A tired BJ made some poor takedown attempts and got at least one on Saturday. Maynard will take Edgar down at will whenever he wants. Don't you think?
Ecc, how do you feel about Matt Mitrione over Joey Beltran at 119 and even a small play on Doerksen inside the distance at nearly +500 on 5dimes? I feel like avoiding the main card completely.Comment -
I don't know about Matt Mitrione.. I know he has improved working with the likes of Pat Barry but seriously he as beaten Big Baby... who has NO stand up and Kimbo Slice who is a glorified street fighter. You have to remember he got choked out by James McSweeney on the Ultimite Fighter. I favor Beltran in this fight but you never know what will happen!Comment -
Haven't looked at the Mitrione fight yet, but I'll let you know my thoughts when i do.
A couple of plays for this week:
BFC 28:
Anthony Leone (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 units
MFC 26:
Antonio McKee/Ryan Ford 2-fight parlay (-125) 3 units to win 2.4 unitsComment -
I like that Dwayne Lewis line -115 against Mike Nickels. Nickels has no standup. Lewis has takedown defense and power in his hands. Plus, he's only been stopped once.Comment -
What do you think about Tom Kong Watson as +200 underdog against Jesse Taylor? Taylor has been saying he wants to stand and out-strike Watson, pretty sure Watson has much better stand-up.Originally posted by EccocideComment -
lean Lewis but I honestly haven't seen enough of him to make a play. I wasnt impressed with what I saw against newton but this is a better matchup for him from what i've seen and nickels is coming in on short notice.Originally posted by koscheckbabyComment -
i was hesitant to make this play because Brits vs wrestlers haven't been kind to me lately but there's too much value to ignore it. Watson has shown decent tdd and has been training with Jackson and only has to train to stop the td as Taylor is so 1-dimensional.Originally posted by Vaughany
Adding:
Watson (+230) 1.25 units to win 2.875 unitsComment
