Against my discretion, I followed along on the Chinese guy. My instinct is he's fought cans and didn't look that inspiring in the clips shown. But what I do know? Maybe he's unimpressive and this opponent he's fighting is even worse.
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It's not often you find a guy with... (1) a complete training camp (2) against a last minute replacement (3) who is undersized for the division, and (4) who doesn't have any quality wins either, coming in at only -135. There's value when you consider all of that. Neither guy's a world-beater, but that's okay. We just need Zhang to be a Garza-beater.Comment -
I feel like the late notice fights aren't as big a deal with the smaller guys. Those guys are always in shape usually. Remember that guy that fought Hordecki last fight? Didn't he fight on like 2 days notice and do really wellComment -
put 5 bucks to win $350 on a varner/cerrone draw....grabbed hominick and a very small ratclif +125 play...
.persoanally i thought zhang looked bad in the videos.....he looks like a bookkeeper.... but you`d think zuffa wants zhang to prvail,so i dodged this one...the odds aren`t interesting enough...
g.l.,gents..Comment -
GL on the Varner/Cerrone draw bet. If there is a fight to be a draw, that's your best bet.Comment -
I by no means think that Zhang is a world beater. I just like the matchup and the circumstances. Without facing legit competition its hard to analyze anything, but when I add all the things up it seemed like a worthwhile play for me. Here's one thing that caught my eye and pushed me further in his direction.
"Zhang Tiequan, who makes his US debut tonight at WEC 51, was discovered by Sean Shelby, the WEC's matchmaker and a longtime sanshou student tasked by the UFC with finding China's best fighters. Shelby crisscrossed the country for three weeks, starting on the northern border and moving all the way down to Hong Kong on his fact-finding mission.
"The thing that amazed me was the spirit of the Chinese people and the Chinese athlete," Shelby said. "There's absolutely no quit in them, and that's something you just can't teach an athlete. You either have it or you don't. It's the intangible. When they have the jiujitsu to go with the sanda, there's no telling how far they can go."
Shelby attended a local fight card and saw wildly differing levels of athletes, including far more skilled heavyweights than he ever imagined. But when Shelby scouted the Chinese Top Team, a Beijing outfit run by a Brazilian coach, he immediately liked Zhang's toughness, his advanced kickboxing skills and his 16-0 record.
"If you're going to be a successful MMA fighter, you have to be a good Greco-Roman wrestler," Shelby said. "They decide where the fight goes. ... If you have that kind of resume, you're set up to do very well, no matter where you come from. Chinese or not, he's got potential."
Shelby has identified several more Chinese fighters who could be added to the promotion. He thinks Chinese MMA will grow along with a proliferation of schools teaching Brazilian jiujitsu, the grappling and ground-fighting discipline that's so important in MMA.
But nobody will know just how quickly this experiment will move until Zhang steps into the octagon on Thursday night."
Anyway, fights are under way and Johnson gets me a win to start the night. Lets hope the card continues in this direction!Comment -
Brown gets the TKO...gd stuff!Comment -
Zhang wins by Sub at 2:26 of round one....who needs line movement anyway haha.
3-0 on the undercard + 4.57 unts. Lets hope the main card is as profitable!Comment -
Adding a Hedge incase my main card plays all tank.
Garcia/Jung-Roop goes the distance/Cerrone 0.45 units to win 5.05 unitsComment -
Another big night. Only loss was my smallest play of the night, and in my heart i was going for cerrone in that one lol. horrible game plan by Varner....great night..onto the next card!
WEC 51 Results: 5-1 +6.62 unitsComment -
Nice.
Makes a great card to watch even better with a betting night like that.
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Someone had asked about my record a little bit ago and I hadn't been keeping a YTD total. Had some downtime today so I went back and got all my thread bookkeeping in order. So here are the results.
MMA YTD: +39.65 units
That includes my epic run of fail from April through June where I lost 25 units lol. +47 units since then. So then I was curious to see how I did in different organizations. It then became obvious where my strengths lie lol.
UFC Events: +46.17 units
WEC Events: +10.93 units
BFC Events: +4.25 units
Strikeforce Events: -16.7 units
Other Events: -5.0 units
I think its pretty apparent that I'm a great fade on Strikeforce cards haha. Make sure to check my thread on Oct 9th to see what NOT to bet
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Anyway, I've been meaning to do this for a while and will try and keep it up going forward. Helps me see where I should be focusing my time and units.Comment -
nice job this year...Comment -
nice night!
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yeah nice night thanks and good luck for the other meetings !Last edited by overthecut; 10-02-10, 02:14 PM.Comment -
Strikeforce:
Josh Thomson (-136) 2.72 units to win 2 unitsComment -
What do you think of P. Thiago at +130 on Pinnacle? Still at -105 on the other books.Comment -
Honestly, I have to watch more tape before I can say anything about a side in this fight. My initial thoughts are Diego's speed and takedowns may be an issue for Thiago. With Diego back at Jackson's camp, you wont be seeing him come in with a horrible gameplan like he did in his last fight. Its a big fight for him and I think he will be ready.
GL tonight Dream! Lets hope JZ doesn't bust out anything crazy like he did vs. Shaolin back in the day lol.Comment -
Adding:
Diaz/Noons Over 2.5 rounds (-126) 2.52 units to win 2 unitsComment -
Did you see Thomson interview from 92.3 on bloodyelbow? Just curious if you make anything out his comments about not having a great camp about half way through the interview. He could just be blowing smoke and it seems like he is hard on himself, which is good.
I like Thomson as well. Line drop just has me looking for anything I am missing.Comment -
Nope, I can't say that I've heard it. Combine that with his constant talk of a rematch with Melendez (maybe overlooking this fight a little bit) makes me slightly uneasy. However, I generally try to not let what fighters have to say directly before a fight weigh into my decision too much. Fighters are known for BSing about training, gameplans, etc, so I tend to take what they say with a grain of salt. What were the specifics of what he said? I find it a little hard to believe that he's not in peak form for a fight which will most likely get the winner a titleshot, but you never know.Comment -
Oh and as for the line movement, I still think there are a lot of ppl expecting JZ to return back to the form of 3 years ago. When you have a lot of highlight reel fights, it seems ppl tend to let those images slip back into their heads. As well, I think Thomson's last fight vs. Healy is being highly overrated as a reason to bet against him. Other than that, Im not sure.Comment -
In the press conference he says that he hasn't thought of a Melendez 3rd fight at all, and that he is sick of the media bringing it up all the time! Also said he's trained like a beast because GZ is a top ten fighter, and even goes on a rant about how ridiculous it is that guys like Benson Henderson are ahead of GZ in the rankings. Overall all of this contradicts what he's said and done in other interviews so as u say Ecco I'd take what thhey say just before a fight with a grain of salt!Comment -
Begining of interview he mentioned being hurt and not being able to train, but that clearly seemed like a joke, b.s. But, then later in the interview he mentioned that he hadnt felt great throughout the camp and oct 3, was the best day of training he had. I normally wouldnt put much weight to it, but with line drop, I didnt know if there actually was a an injury that hampered his training.
As for the JZ of old, nothing from his fights past two years would make me think that guy will appear. Thomson boxing has greatly improved past 2 years imo and I think he has advantage everywhere.
BOL with your plays.Comment -
his mouth is always running, but how knows. all he has do is hit and move and mix feet with hands and he wins.Comment -
Gd night Ecco! My poor Strikeforce run has ended!
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Hoping Hominick makes it 4-0 for you and guarantees a positive night for me!
