Eccocide's MMA Picks

[Eccocide]

UFC 122:

Okami (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units

Adding:

UFC 122:

Okami (+188) 0.5 units to win 0.94 units
Winner (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
McCray (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Reljic (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

[rocky mattioli]

i was looking at seth petruzelli...i`ve noticed that his stand-up has looked pretty polished of late....he was beating the hell out of romero until the submission....

vemola is a very strong,frantic type fighter....all his wins are 1st round blow-outs...if he can`t land a wild shot,he loves to rush guys and climb on their backs and try and choke them out.....


i don`t think this guy can be very effective for a full 3 rounds given the way he expends energy early...
in a stand-up battle,i think petruzelli more than hold his own...i think he knocks him out.....but can he keep vemola from climbing onto his back?.....

was hoping to get some odds...but it looks like roughly a pickem...probably not worth the risk without getting a little extra...

opinion on this one,ecco?...thanks

[Vaughany]

Adding:

UFC 122:

Okami (+188) 0.5 units to win 0.94 units
Winner (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
McCray (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Reljic (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

Ecco...urgent assistance required! On pinnacle they have maximum bets...it states £217 for Kimmons. Do you know if this means that you cant risk more thn 217 overall or just for that bet? So for instance can I place the bet risking 217 then just go back and select it again and do another for 217? It seems to let you go on to the confirmation screen...just thought why would there be a maximum bet when you can just do it separately if u want to add more?

[jacktheknife]

Adding:

UFC 122:

Okami (+188) 0.5 units to win 0.94 units
Winner (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
McCray (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Reljic (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

Wow, I gotta tell you that whole ticket gives me a bad, bad feeling. Can you at least explain the Winner play?

[Vaughany]

Ecco...urgent assistance required! On pinnacle they have maximum bets...it states £217 for Kimmons. Do you know if this means that you cant risk more thn 217 overall or just for that bet? So for instance can I place the bet risking 217 then just go back and select it again and do another for 217? It seems to let you go on to the confirmation screen...just thought why would there be a maximum bet when you can just do it separately if u want to add more?

Dont worry bout it now, customer service informed me that you can just make the play again apparently. However, Paddypower changed Noke's odds from 13/8 to 4/9 though after I put 24.7 units on him so that will have to do!

[Eccocide]

i was looking at seth petruzelli...i`ve noticed that his stand-up has looked pretty polished of late....he was beating the hell out of romero until the submission....

vemola is a very strong,frantic type fighter....all his wins are 1st round blow-outs...if he can`t land a wild shot,he loves to rush guys and climb on their backs and try and choke them out.....


i don`t think this guy can be very effective for a full 3 rounds given the way he expends energy early...
in a stand-up battle,i think petruzelli more than hold his own...i think he knocks him out.....but can he keep vemola from climbing onto his back?.....

was hoping to get some odds...but it looks like roughly a pickem...probably not worth the risk without getting a little extra...

opinion on this one,ecco?...thanks

This is a tough fight to analyze. I agree with most of what you said. One thing to note is that this is Vemola's first fight at 205lb. He used to be a brick of a heavyweight coming in at around 240lb of solid muscle. Obviously he had to drop the roids as he came in at a soft 220lb against Madsen in his UFC debut. Now hes shedding the softness to fight at 205lb which by all accounts better suits his hight and reach. This begs the question - what will his conditioning be like? Hard to tell. It could be better because he doesn't have all that muscle to feed oxygen to, or it could be worse because he has never cut weight before. Petruzelli's gas tank has never been very good in its own right but If I had to guess I'd give him the advantage in this category due to the fact that this is Vemola's first cut. Vemola will be a big 205er though and he has a solid wrestling base. Can he hold Petruzelli down for 3 rounds? I'd have to venture and say no. It's hard to judge what Vemola's top game is like because most of his fights were against weak opponents who were overcome quickly by his strength. Petruzelli has decent sweeps and is usually pretty active from the bottom. Obviously he will want to keep it standing as he has a big advantage there. The only problem I see for him is that he likes to use a lot of kicks and this could leave him vulnerable to the takedown. Other than that, he should have a definitive speed and striking advantage. For me, I just think there are too many variables in this fight to make a play on it. GL with whatever you decide to do!

Ecco...urgent assistance required! On pinnacle they have maximum bets...it states £217 for Kimmons. Do you know if this means that you cant risk more thn 217 overall or just for that bet? So for instance can I place the bet risking 217 then just go back and select it again and do another for 217? It seems to let you go on to the confirmation screen...just thought why would there be a maximum bet when you can just do it separately if u want to add more?

Sorry man! As soon as I posted I was out for the day. I thought that you could bet the max till the line moved and then you could bet the max again, but it sounds like you already got it all figured out.

Wow, I gotta tell you that whole ticket gives me a bad, bad feeling. Can you at least explain the Winner play?

lol well don't let me talk you out of playing the opposite. These are all average sized bets for me - nothing really stood out as a great play, but I see value in all of these.

Here are my thoughts on the Winner fight. First off, Winner's 4in height and reach advantage are going to be difficult for Siver to deal with. Siver likes to load up and throw big bombs and put his whole body into his punches. This leaves him exposed to the counter which Winner happens to be pretty good at, and with the extra reach I think he will be quite successful at scoring over and over with his hands. Also, Winner's handspeed is twice that of Siver's. His boxing is more technical and he does a good job at working angles. Siver likes to work from the inside but he's going to have to eat some shots to get there. Once he does get inside, I think he will have a difficult time doing much damage. Winner is good at neutralizing his opponent in the clinch and he has pretty good dirty boxing. What Winner will have to watch out for is Siver's kicks. He got tagged quite a bit by leg kicks in his fight vs Oliveira and If he does that against Siver he will find himself immobilized by the 3rd round. I expect his footwork to be better in this fight as it got him in trouble getting pinned against the cage against Lentz. If he can use his angles and keep circling his speed and boxing should win him his fight. Siver is very powerful, but Winner should a good chin by eating some shots from Pearson in the TUF finale. I also wouldn't be surprised if you see Winner mix in a takedown or two. Siver isnt very good from the bottom and hasn't shown a propensity to be able to get it back to standing.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Winner/Siver goes the distance (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units

Great line here i think.

[Eccocide]

Slim pickings for the WEC card. Don't see much a like. I have a small action play on Vasquez even though I think this is Mendes's fight to lose and a parlay. I may add one more parlay but this is it for now.

WEC 52:

Koch/Davis 2-fight parlay (+110) 2 units to win 2.2 units
Vasquez (+250) 0.5 units to win 1.25 units

UFC 122 Recap:

Okami (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units & Okami (+188) 0.5 units to win 0.94 units
Winner (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
McCray (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Reljic (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Winner/Siver goes the distance (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units

I may have a couple more plays for UFC 122 involving props, but waiting for some more lines to come out.

[Vaughany]

Adding:

Winner/Siver goes the distance (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units

Great line here i think.

Yep that is great value, -150 on paddypower currently - was probably -120 when it first came out but I was too busy sorting out my Noke/Kimmons arb so missed it. Think I'll probably still take the -150 but gonna wait and see what Winner by decision odds are on skybet if they do ever release prop lines. He's +187.5 on paddy, what's his odds on the book that has the -120 for the fight to go the distance? I like him to win through using his reach, countering ability and hand speed as well, just like you said above

[Eccocide]

Yep that is great value, -150 on paddypower currently - was probably -120 when it first came out but I was too busy sorting out my Noke/Kimmons arb so missed it. Think I'll probably still take the -150 but gonna wait and see what Winner by decision odds are on skybet if they do ever release prop lines. He's +187.5 on paddy, what's his odds on the book that has the -120 for the fight to go the distance? I like him to win through using his reach, countering ability and hand speed as well, just like you said above

It has already dropped to -150 on 5dimes where I bet it lol. And they don't have the lines up yet for Winner by decision so still waiting to see. Hopefully they release the rest of their props soon. I hate waiting around for those lol. And nice work on the Kimmons/Noke middle. I can't believe Paddy had Noke that high!

[Vaughany]

It has already dropped to -150 on 5dimes where I bet it lol. And they don't have the lines up yet for Winner by decision so still waiting to see. Hopefully they release the rest of their props soon. I hate waiting around for those lol. And nice work on the Kimmons/Noke middle. I can't believe Paddy had Noke that high!

ha yeah I couldnt believe it when I saw it! If I'm really lucky skybet might f**k up one of the lines as well when they finally release it like they did with making Patrick the underdog at 120! Yee waiting for the props to come out is a killer! Like the Vazquez play, was too good value at +250 to pass up IMO, I was expecting Mendes to be more like -150 to -200 range and Vazquez +125 to +160 range. If Vazquez was simply a BJJ blackbelt with no wrestling ability and mediocre striking I could understand the line but Vazquez has decent wrestling to accompany his blackbelt BJJ as well as reasonable striking (better than Mendes anyway). Money hasn't fought anybody yet with Vazquez's grappling credentials and is still very green in the grand scheme of things. Only concern is Vazquez's dodgy knees, apparently he pulled out of fighting Matt Serra at UFC79 or something because he had to have knee surgery back then and he's had issues with them ever since. Nonetheless +250 is the play that makes sense to me.

[ddream1]

i have menedes winning with smothering top control, vas is solid but i went over this fight a thousand times and i just don't see him winning it. the value is great for vas, i parlayed menedes with benavidez at a quarter unit. gl guys

i have to agree on the winner points. siver does alot well but i see winner going to takedowns and i think thats the difference.

[snake11eyes]

I will never put my money on Winner ever again after that Lentz fiasco. As ecco would say he's on the blacklist now.

[Eccocide]

i have menedes winning with smothering top control, vas is solid but i went over this fight a thousand times and i just don't see him winning it. the value is great for vas, i parlayed menedes with benavidez at a quarter unit. gl guys

i have to agree on the winner points. siver does alot well but i see winner going to takedowns and i think thats the difference.

No doubt, I think this is Mendes's fight to lose as I stated, but the line is too high IMO. He is decent parlay material though. GL tonight bud.

I will never put my money on Winner ever again after that Lentz fiasco. As ecco would say he's on the blacklist now.

Haha. If he loses this fight he will be added to my blacklist as well!

[Eccocide]

WEC 52:

Koch/Davis 2-fight parlay (+110) 2 units to win 2.2 units
Vasquez (+250) 0.5 units to win 1.25 units

Adding:

Mcdonald (-139) 2.085 units to win 1.5 units
Faber/Benavidez-Fabiano Over 2.5 rounds 2-fight parlay (-108) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units

WEC 52 Recap:

Koch/Davis 2-fight parlay (+110) 2 units to win 2.2 units
Vasquez (+250) 0.5 units to win 1.25 units
Mcdonald (-139) 2.085 units to win 1.5 units
Faber/Benavidez-Fabiano over 2.5 rounds 2-fight parlay (-108) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units

[Vaughany]

Adding:

Mcdonald (-139) 2.085 units to win 1.5 units
Faber/Benavidez-Fabiano goes the distance 2-fight parlay (-108) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units

WEC 52 Recap:

Koch/Davis 2-fight parlay (+110) 2 units to win 2.2 units
Vasquez (+250) 0.5 units to win 1.25 units
Mcdonald (-139) 2.085 units to win 1.5 units
Faber/Benavidez-Fabiano goes the distance 2-fight parlay (-108) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units

Great plays Ecco, looks like me, you and Ill all have similar plays tonight, good luck bro!

[Eccocide]

Fabiano looked like shit, didnt even try to avoid subs!

One small play as I like the value and want a little action on the main event since the parlay failed lol.

Faber inside the distance (+250) 0.75 units to win 1.875 units

[Eccocide]

A Blah night for me. Wish I would have flipped my parlays, instead lost one on each lol. Onto the weekend., Hope others had a good night!

WEC 52 Results: -0.745 units

[Vaughany]

A Blah night for me. Wish I would have flipped my parlays, instead lost one on each lol. Onto the weekend., Hope others had a good night!

WEC 52 Results: -0.745 units

Sure u'l make that back at the wknd, I'm quite confident in Winner getting the decision. I will most probably add Winner to win by decision, or Winner to win and the Fight to go to decision same as you. Also like the McCray play now that I've looked in to it more...may add to the unit that I've put on him...have you studied any footage of Rocha's previous fights...any analysis as I havnt had chance to watch much?

[Eccocide]

Sure u'l make that back at the wknd, I'm quite confident in Winner getting the decision. I will most probably add Winner to win by decision, or Winner to win and the Fight to go to decision same as you. Also like the McCray play now that I've looked in to it more...may add to the unit that I've put on him...have you studied any footage of Rocha's previous fights...any analysis as I havnt had chance to watch much?

Not too worried, it was just a small loss!

Yeah I was able to find 3 of Rocha's fights and a couple highlight videos. He obviously has good jiu jitsu but he relies a lot on being on top. He's a slow and methodical grappler, although he often goes for subs and ends up losing position because of this. There were at least a couple instances in all of his fights where he was able to get mount, but ends up losing it by going for armbars or leg locks. He doesn't have any GNP, but has solid transitions. He has a pretty good double leg but the guys he was fighting didnt look to have very strong bases. I think this weightclass is much more ideal for McCray, and if he can keep from being on the bottom he should definitely win this. My biggest worry is that McCray gets a little frantic after he gets a takedown, and loses position because of it. Hopefully he has been working more on his positioning.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

UFC 122:

Noke/Reljic-Soszynski Starts Round 2 (-104) 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

UFC 122 Recap:

Okami (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units & Okami (+188) 0.5 units to win 0.94 units
Winner (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
McCray (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Reljic (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Winner/Siver goes the distance (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Noke/Reljic-Soszynski Starts Round 2 2-fight Parlay (-104) 2.6 units to win 2.5 units


May have one more play, depending which way the line moves as it gets closer to the fight.

[The HOFF]

I like the Winner bet. I think the reach will be a big advantage. I'm on Rocha pretty large. Not a good sign when you and Vaughany are on the opposite.

[Eccocide]

I like the Winner bet. I think the reach will be a big advantage. I'm on Rocha pretty large. Not a good sign when you and Vaughany are on the opposite.

The only thing I would say is that I wouldn't go too large on a fighter who has limited experience, and who has mostly fought lower level competition. I find that guys who have had things go pretty smoothly for them tend to panic when things start to not go their way. As well, first fight UFC jitters have killed quality and experienced fighters, so for new comer its compounded even that much more. This is a high risk fight IMO and I usually curb down my bet size in those cases. Anyways, thats JMO. GL tomorrow bud!

[jacktheknife]

Dog of the night: Demetrious Johnson? Really? Where did we miss that one?

[Eccocide]

Dog of the night: Demetrious Johnson? Really? Where did we miss that one?

I was actually going to bet on Johnson and Over 2.5 rounds. Page was coming off a long layoff and he was bound to hit the wall with how much he puts into everything he throws! The good news is, I woulda lost the Over 2.5 rounds since the fight ended 2 seconds before going over lol.

[Vaughany]

I was actually going to bet on Johnson and Over 2.5 rounds. Page was coming off a long layoff and he was bound to hit the wall with how much he puts into everything he throws! The good news is, I woulda lost the Over 2.5 rounds since the fight ended 2 seconds before going over lol.

ha yeah I almost put a unit on the over at Pinnacle as well as it was at +180 but decided to avoid the fights altogether fortunately...would of been proper pissed!

[Eccocide]

My biggest worry is that McCray gets a little frantic after he gets a takedown, and loses position because of it. Hopefully he has been working more on his positioning.

Well what do you know. McCray is easily controlling the fight and gets anxious and frantic and rushes a RNC and ends up getting caught in an knee bar lol. I dunno why he just cant be patient. He already had 2 td's and was controlling the fight. Silly man!

Noke wins fairly easily so that parlay is still live. Still debating one last play. I guess I need to make a decision soon!

[Ryan138]

Where are you watching the fights if you don't mind me asking?

[Eccocide]

Well Rivera/Sakara was cancelled so the play I was debating is out the door. Was debating Over 1.5 rounds but doesn't make a difference now.

One little flyer. Just going with the gut on this one:

Sadollah by submission (+1000) 0.25 units to win 2.5 units

[Eccocide]

Where are you watching the fights if you don't mind me asking?

Wasn't watching those, was reading various play-by-plays. Getting ready to watch the main card now though. Its on Sportsnet One in Canada .

[Ryan138]

lucky

[Vaughany]

Well Rivera/Sakara was cancelled so the play I was debating is out the door. Was debating Over 1.5 rounds but doesn't make a difference now.

One little flyer. Just going with the gut on this one:

Sadollah by submission (+1000) 0.25 units to win 2.5 units

That's great value, think I only got it at +700.

Think this Bang Slick Nick fight is a FOTN contender at moment.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

UFC 122:

Noke/Reljic-Soszynski Starts Round 2 (-104) 2.6 units to win 2.5 units

UFC 122 Recap:

Okami (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units & Okami (+188) 0.5 units to win 0.94 units
Winner (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
McCray (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Reljic (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Winner/Siver goes the distance (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Noke/Reljic-Soszynski Starts Round 2 2-fight Parlay (-104) 2.6 units to win 2.5 units


May have one more play, depending which way the line moves as it gets closer to the fight.

Well Rivera/Sakara was cancelled so the play I was debating is out the door. Was debating Over 1.5 rounds but doesn't make a difference now.

One little flyer. Just going with the gut on this one:

Sadollah by submission (+1000) 0.25 units to win 2.5 units

Well not a good night but not the worst. If I woulda got a normal line on Okami, my night woulda be a little better. Reljic's gas tank was horrible. As was Marquardts. Okami was picking him apart with ease! Winner....oh Winner...how you always find a way to dissappoint me. Add to this the fact that both my leans that I didnt bet in Matyushenko and Ludwig (a +300 dog) that I posted in other threads won, it makes it a little more painful lol. Im in a dry spell right now with small losses on each of the last 3 cards, but hopefully it will start to ramp up again starting next weekend. Plus I will be at the event so it will make it that much more enjoyable if the bets cash .

UFC 122 Results: -1.76 units

[Eccocide]

Up-to-date figures:

MMA YTD: +40.2 units

[lasker]

meh, if this is a dry spell for you then you've got nothing to worry about. get em next weekend!