Eccocide's MMA Picks

[Eccocide]

A few words of warning. My two worst events this year were TUF 11 Finale (-6.025 units) and Strikeforce Heavy Artillery (-5.475 units). I tend not to be very good at TUF cards or Strikeforce cards, so this weekend could be a disaster .

Even better!! Strikeforce Heavy Artillery was in St. Louis. Henderson vs Babalu is Strikeforce St. Louis II.....the bad omens are everywhere!

[jacktheknife]

What do you think of Branch?

[Vaughany]

Just got Miller at +105 on Pinnacle

[lasker]

Just got Miller at +105 on Pinnacle

have to go against you on this one, Vaugh. IMO Oliveira should be at least -175. I think he'll have the advantage wherever this fight goes. Miller's tough as nails but Oliveira (along with Dunham) is the future.

[Vaughany]

have to go against you on this one, Vaugh. IMO Oliveira should be at least -175. I think he'll have the advantage wherever this fight goes. Miller's tough as nails but Oliveira (along with Dunham) is the future.

I agree, Im on the Oliveira hype train as well but I think the line is about right due to Oliveira's lack of experience and Miller's ability to grind out decisions! I was big on Oliveira against Escudero because I knew he'd be able to submit Escudero if it went to the ground and because Escudero stand-up was overhyped after he KO'd Cole Miller and I was counting on Oliveira to use his range and keep on the outside. However, Miller is a lot more experienced and smarter than Escudero and will not get frustrated like Efrain did in that last round. Miller's stand-up shouldnt be underestimated either, just ask Duane Ludwig! I wouldnt necessarily say Oliveira has the edge in that area. Oliveira has unorthodox striking and doesn't protect his chin very well, he could definitely get caught a couple of times by Miller reasonably crisp boxing. My main play for this fight will be for it to go to decision as I feel the most likely outcome would be either of them winning on points. Obviously Oliveira could submit Miller if it goes to the ground, as although he's a black belt, Miller showed that he is vulnerable to getting caught in subs against Bocek. However, as I said above, Miller is an intelligent dude and I think will know that he has a better chance of winning this if he keeps it standing, and has the take down defence to prevent Oliveira from taking him down. Nonetheless, I'll be taking Oliveira for Submission of the Night as an extra hedge to the Miller to win and fight to go to decision plays!

[Eccocide]

What do you think of Branch?

I think the line is about right, no play for me. I think Branch has the advantage in the stand-up, hes striking and timing are more refined but Attonito has some power as he displayed vs Natal. I don't expect Branch to be able to get this to the ground. Attonito is a much better wrestler than Drwal and Drwal was able to stuff most of Branch's TDs. Branch telegraphs his takedowns pretty badly and doesnt really drive through his opponent making it pretty easy to sprawl against. I think Attonito will try to mix in some takedowns while not getting too aggressive to leave himself open. Branch hasn't shown a whole lot off of his back in the UFC other than a couple triangles here or there and at times he seems pretty content not trying to get back up to his feet. But if Attonito does get sloppy as he has shown a little in the past, he could end up in some bad positions.

[Eccocide]

have to go against you on this one, Vaugh. IMO Oliveira should be at least -175. I think he'll have the advantage wherever this fight goes. Miller's tough as nails but Oliveira (along with Dunham) is the future.

Just got Miller at +105 on Pinnacle

This is a huge step up in competition for Oliveira. Miller has fought some of the best in the world and has only lost to 2 guys, Edgar and Maynard who were both better wrestlers than him. This wont be the case in this fight. He will be the bigger, stronger and more experienced fighter in this one. His BJJ is underrated and I think he will be fine being in Oliveira's guard. His standup is also pretty underrated although Oliveira will be the faster of the 2 fighters. Miller will try to get inside in this fight, work against the cage, wear down Oliveira and get some TD's to get the decision win.

[Eccocide]

TUF 12 Finale Recap:

Rick Story (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units
Pokrajac (+210) 2 units to win 4.2 units
Wilkinson (+140) 2 units to win 2.8 units
Chivitchian (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Paixao/Toner 2-fight parlay (+118) 2 units to win 2.36 units
Grove (+300) 0.5 units to win 1.5 units


Strikeforce Recap:

St Preux (-125) 2.5 units to win 2 units
Henderson/Daley/Silva 3-fight parlay (+122) 1.5 units to win 1.83 units <---Square Parlay I know lol


UFC 124:

Miller (-110) 2.2 units to win 2 units <--- may add more depending on any further movement

Adding:

Campuzano (-130) 1.625 units to win 1.25 units

Pace looked like shit and came in over weight at the weigh-ins.

[Eccocide]

Epic fail of a start, looks like the omens are striking again lol. 5dimes finally added some props for Strikeforce tonight. I love Silva/Kyle not going the distance as Silva should be able to finish him early (I Hope!). These might be a good fade considering my start to the night...

Adding:

Strikeforce:

Silva/Kyle Under 2.5 rounds (-150) 4.5 units to win 3 units
Henderson by TKO/KO (+320) 1 unit to win 3.2 units

Hope everyone has had a better start than me. GL!

[Eccocide]

Horrible job on the TUF card. Rick Story saved me from a disaster with 5.7 units won. On the other hand, it was a clean sweep on the strikeforce card!!! Massive results there.

TUF 12 Finale Results: -3.425 units

Strikeforce Results: +10.03 units

+6.605 units on the night.


MMA YTD: +52.4075 units

[Eccocide]

Just finished watching the Strikeforce card. What a knockout by Daley! Smith was out face first on the canvas, just beautiful! And Lawlor looked pretty badass with that beard. 5 fights, 4 KOs, pretty crazy card. St. Preaux was extremely impressive as he annihalated Radach.

[brooks85]

ya that ko was awesome. You know that is going to be on a highlight reel for a long time to come. I was barley paying attention to the fight, I glanced up and saw smith fall like a sack of potatoes. All I could do was laugh.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Well done on SF Ecco!

Sh*t, wish I would've seen when 5dimes added props. Would've been interested in a Daley-Smith prop and that Henderson prop that you played. Solid job there.

[lasker]

Great job yet again Ecco!

[Eccocide]

Great job yet again Ecco!

Well done on SF Ecco!

Sh*t, wish I would've seen when 5dimes added props. Would've been interested in a Daley-Smith prop and that Henderson prop that you played. Solid job there.

Thanks guys!

Yeah I have no idea why they added props so late for Strikeforce. I was looking at props for UFC 124 and saw that they had put them up. I was actually going to take Under 1.5 in the Daley/Smith fight as well but the undercard for TUF had gone pretty bad so I didnt wanna add too much more lol.

ya that ko was awesome. You know that is going to be on a highlight reel for a long time to come. I was barley paying attention to the fight, I glanced up and saw smith fall like a sack of potatoes. All I could do was laugh.

It was awesome! It was like straight out of a movie. Reminded me of Arlovski/Fedor the way Smith laid on the mat lol. He has some of the worst defense I've seen for a striker.

[Vaughany]

Cant believe you got Hendo by TKO/KO at +320! Crazy value! Good job bro

[sirchadwick1]

Cant believe you got Hendo by TKO/KO at +320! Crazy value! Good job bro

No kidding! Wish I had seen that prop bet... would have been all over it. Instead, I went for value on Babalu thinking he had a shot at winning this by DEC/SUB. His chin didn't allow... yet again.

[Eccocide]

Yeah, they must have been expecting it to go to a decision. Henderson by Decision was +100 and fight over 2.5 round was like -180 or something. I was happy with it!

[Eccocide]

UFC 124:

Miller (-110) 2.2 units to win 2 units

Adding:

GSP/Stevenson-Danzig Goes the Distance 2-fight parlay (-108) 2.16 units to win 2 units
Natal (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 units

So pissed I missed the opener on Stungun @+140. Gunna see where the line goes before I make a play.

[Eccocide]

I missed my chance on the short line on this and it doesn't look likes it is going to come back much so Im going to book it now.

Adding:

Struve (-145) 3.625 units to win 2.5 units

[illmatick]

agree, i think we could see struve hit close to -200 after the weigh-ins.

[Eccocide]

Screw it, this Kim line is still dropping. Gunna play it now...

Adding:

UFC 125:

Kim (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units

[brooks85]

Ive just wanted to unload every time I see that line move ha. I love stungun in this matchup, Im also liking vera, i hope that line keeps moving.

[Eccocide]

Ive just wanted to unload every time I see that line move ha. I love stungun in this matchup, Im also liking vera, i hope that line keeps moving.

I will be on Vera no doubt. Im watching that line closely, but I have a feeling its gunna be one of those ones that slowly climbs and then gets hammered down. Im scared im gunna wait too long lol.

[brooks85]

haha exactly, i just want to make sure I get a good line on him. Im glad did not try to get arb on the line when i saw it open -115, I thought vera would move to the favorite for sure.

[Eccocide]

haha exactly, i just want to make sure I get a good line on him. Im glad did not try to get arb on the line when i saw it open -115, I thought vera would move to the favorite for sure.

Up to +140 now, how long do we wait? lol. I don't see it going any higher than +150, but the line has surprised me already.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Pierson (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units

Great value here in Pierson. I waited, hoping love would come in on Riddle and the line would go back to the opener, but I can't chance it dropping any further.

UFC 124 Recap (So Far):

Jim Miller (-110) 2.2 units to win 2 units
Natal (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 units
Struve (-145) 3.625 units to win 2.5 units
Pierson (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units
GSP/Stevenson-Danzig Goes the Distance 2-fight parlay (-108) 2.16 units to win 2 units

[brooks85]

i dont get it, are people really betting thiago silva at -155 and more after a year lay off against vera?
I didnt think he had that much support, especially losing the decision to evans. Vera put a beating on couture and his last fight against jones isnt going to factor into this matchup in any way. Even if thiago comes in 100% healthy, he obviously wasn't ready for Drwal, and he has no ring rust vera is still a very tough matchup for him.

[Eccocide]

i dont get it, are people really betting thiago silva at -155 and more after a year lay off against vera?
I didnt think he had that much support, especially losing the decision to evans. Vera put a beating on couture and his last fight against jones isnt going to factor into this matchup in any way. Even if thiago comes in 100% healthy, he obviously wasn't ready for Drwal, and he has no ring rust vera is still a very tough matchup for him.

Me either man, its crazy to me. I dunno if this is perception and overreaction to the Jones fight or what. Thiago on a long layoff, Vera has the length and speed, hes the better wrestler and grappler. It just moved to +155 on 5dimes. Im gunna hit it now and if keeps going, Ill hit it again.

UFC 125:

Vera (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units

[brooks85]

nice!! and to think I was so close to pulling the trigger at +120 last night ha

[terpkeg]

Me either man, its crazy to me. I dunno if this is perception and overreaction to the Jones fight or what. Thiago on a long layoff, Vera has the length and speed, hes the better wrestler and grappler. It just moved to +155 on 5dimes. Im gunna hit it now and if keeps going, Ill hit it again.

UFC 125:

Vera (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units

Just hit +155 as well. I think this is the peak. You can probably find my old anti Thiago Silva threads from my old posting days at theRX saying how overrated I thought he was. No reason to jump off the train now.

[snake11eyes]

Adding:

Pierson (+230) 1.5 units to win 3.45 units

Great value here in Pierson. I waited, hoping love would come in on Riddle and the line would go back to the opener, but I can't chance it dropping any further.

Riddle is a tough customer, having said that I dont think he should be -285. I'm just not sure Pierson has any value in this spot either. This is a no play for me.

[Vaughany]

Riddle is a tough customer, having said that I dont think he should be -285. I'm just not sure Pierson has any value in this spot either. This is a no play for me.

Cant help but remember what Osipczak did to Riddle...completely neutralised his wrestling and GNP and then reversed and TKO'd him in the third round. Perhaps Pierson can pull off something similar.

[Vaughany]

Me either man, its crazy to me. I dunno if this is perception and overreaction to the Jones fight or what. Thiago on a long layoff, Vera has the length and speed, hes the better wrestler and grappler. It just moved to +155 on 5dimes. Im gunna hit it now and if keeps going, Ill hit it again.

UFC 125:

Vera (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units

Yeah this should be much closer to Evens IMO. Thiago's only advantage in this is power and aggression which isnt enough to warrant him being the favourite! Vera is +135 or something on pinnacle so thing I'm gonna hold off and just take him by decision at +200 or better.

[Eccocide]

Just hit +155 as well. I think this is the peak. You can probably find my old anti Thiago Silva threads from my old posting days at theRX saying how overrated I thought he was. No reason to jump off the train now.

Nice, glad to see you on it as well!

Riddle is a tough customer, having said that I dont think he should be -285. I'm just not sure Pierson has any value in this spot either. This is a no play for me.

Cant help but remember what Osipczak did to Riddle...completely neutralised his wrestling and GNP and then reversed and TKO'd him in the third round. Perhaps Pierson can pull off something similar.

This is the first time hes faced someone with as good as/better wrestling than him.I dont think he will be able to go his typical route of putting a guy on his back and doing damage for 3 rounds. I'm curious to see how he deals with being stuffed or planted on his back. Pierson has some nasty GnP and great TDs. His standup isnt that great but he does have some power and good transitions. Riddle will have the speed and cardio advantage though, so Im hoping Pierson can do his damage within the first half of the fight.

Yeah this should be much closer to Evens IMO. Thiago's only advantage in this is power and aggression which isnt enough to warrant him being the favourite! Vera is +135 or something on pinnacle so thing I'm gonna hold off and just take him by decision at +200 or better.

Yeah thats a good possibility, but even though Vera hasnt been much of a finisher at 205lb, I think he can finish Thiago. Thiago's defense isnt particularly good and it will be interesting to see how he deals with the clinch. Im glad this bout got promoted to the main card!