Eccocide's MMA Picks

**99Boxster** · 12-30-10, 10:18 AM

I wish I would've tailed you instead. From reading Sherdog, Kanehara had Maeda KTFO'd and then got KO'd Robby Lawler/Melvin Manheouf style! Can't wait to see it even though I lost

**Eccocide** · 12-30-10, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by 99Boxster

I wish I would've tailed you instead. From reading Sherdog, Kanehara had Maeda KTFO'd and then got KO'd Robby Lawler/Melvin Manheouf style! Can't wait to see it even though I lost

Here it is.

**Eccocide** · 12-30-10, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Just as I write that I see that Chonan has been KO'd after 9 seconds!

**lasker** · 12-30-10, 12:32 PM

Great calls Ecco, really great. I tailed you on Hioki after reading your analysis and it played out exactly according to your script

**99Boxster** · 12-30-10, 01:48 PM

That was pretty badass, except for the man hugs at the end!

**Eccocide** · 12-30-10, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by lasker

Great calls Ecco, really great. I tailed you on Hioki after reading your analysis and it played out exactly according to your script

Thanks man. Glad you cashed on it as well.

Adding:

Sakuraba (+210) 0.75 units to win 1.575 units

Rumour has it that Zaromskis is coming in with some type of leg injury. I figure Saku is worth a shot at these odds. He looked great at the weigh-ins at this new weight-class, I just hope he doesnt get his brains scrambled....again.

**Vaughany** · 12-30-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Thanks man. Glad you cashed on it as well.

Adding:

Sakuraba (+210) 0.75 units to win 1.575 units

Rumour has it that Zaromskis is coming in with some type of leg injury. I figure Saku is worth a shot at these odds. He looked great at the weigh-ins at this new weight-class, I just hope he doesnt get his brains scrambled....again.

Ahh good great wonderful! After thinking I'd been given a second Xmas by Paddy with getting Chonan and Zaro at plus odds, now it looks like I'm gonna lose almost 5 units

. Maybe paddy knew something!

**Karnivool** · 12-30-10, 07:36 PM

I tailed your Sengoku picks, awesome work Eccocide, bring on Dream!

**Eccocide** · 12-30-10, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Ahh good great wonderful! After thinking I'd been given a second Xmas by Paddy with getting Chonan and Zaro at plus odds, now it looks like I'm gonna lose almost 5 units

. Maybe paddy knew something!

Haha its just a rumour, you never know if they are true!

Originally posted by Karnivool

I tailed your Sengoku picks, awesome work Eccocide, bring on Dream!

Thanks Karn. Lets hope tonight goes good as well.

Adding:

Diaz by Sub (+556) 0.5 units to win 2.78 units

This is a little hedge against my Kim bet. Kim may tire in the 3rd and could leave himself open to a sub on the ground.

**Eccocide** · 12-30-10, 08:14 PM

Adding:

Gomi by TKO (+354) 0.55 units to win 1.947 units

Another hedge.

**99Boxster** · 12-30-10, 11:31 PM

really? gomi by tko? how bout a OVER 3 rounds or guida by dec?

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by 99Boxster

really? gomi by tko? how bout a OVER 3 rounds or guida by dec?

As i stated, this is a hedge. I bet the fight to go the distance already at +145. Gomi wins inside the distance or it goes the distance IMO.

**Mr.Kitty** · 12-31-10, 10:34 AM

I see that you have a bigger play on Stungun, have you posted a writeup yet? would love to see one because ive been going back and forth in this one. At first I liked Kim, then Diaz and now I dont know

.

Standing I think Diaz has the advantage with his boxing, and Kim said he wants to stand and get a KO which makes me nervous betting on him. Kim has a clear wrestling advantage and he has good GnP but Diaz is good off his back with sweeps and submissions. But if Kim turn this into a wrestlingmatch I think he will win because Diaz has had problems with strong wrestler type of fighters in the past.

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

I see that you have a bigger play on Stungun, have you posted a writeup yet? would love to see one because ive been going back and forth in this one. At first I liked Kim, then Diaz and now I dont know

.

Standing I think Diaz has the advantage with his boxing, and Kim said he wants to stand and get a KO which makes me nervous betting on him. Kim has a clear wrestling advantage and he has good GnP but Diaz is good off his back with sweeps and submissions. But if Kim turn this into a wrestlingmatch I think he will win because Diaz has had problems with strong wrestler type of fighters in the past.

Yeah I think Shaggy asked me my thoughts earlier and I forgot about it lol. You reminded me now. Ill type a little something up in a bit!

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Dream Dynamite Recap:

Kawajiri (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
Uno (-115) 1.725 units to win 1.5 units
Sakurai (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
Takaya (+200) 1 unit to win 2 units

Originally posted by Eccocide

Adding:

Blanco/Khalidov/Tokoro 3-fight parlay (-105) 2.1 units to win 2 units

Sakuraba (+210) 0.75 units to win 1.575 units

Rumour has it that Zaromskis is coming in with some type of leg injury. I figure Saku is worth a shot at these odds. He looked great at the weigh-ins at this new weight-class, I just hope he doesnt get his brains scrambled....again.

Well I hit with the 2 dogs and lost with the two favs lol. Kawajiri dominated Thomson, even more so than I thought he would. Whitemare via earsaw. That flyer didnt work. Tokoro worried me for a bit but he cashed the parlay. I thought Mach had a chance for a decision win due to more damage and the knockdown but it didnt happen. The Japanese do me well in the main events over the last 2 days. Hit both as doggies. Takeya was very impressive. But my fav moment of the entire card was Aoki getting his ass blasted after his tactics in the first round lol. Bitch got what was coming to him!

Dream Dynamite Results: +1.625 units

Can finally call it at year. Hopefully 2011 starts off on the right foot tomorrow!

2010 MMA Results: +69.3225

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 11:51 AM

Adding some flyers.

UFC 125:

Gomi/Guida FOTN (+525) 0.75 units to win 3.9375 units
Davis/Stephens FOTN (+650) 0.25 units to win 1.625 units
Grispi Quickest Sub (+425) 0.25 units to win 1.0625

**lasker** · 12-31-10, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

But my fav moment of the entire card was Aoki getting his ass blasted after his tactics in the first round lol. Bitch got what was coming to him!

my favorite moment too, and I'm a huge Aoki fan! That cowardly display in the first round made me start rooting for Nagashima! Good job again with your picks. I think Tokoro was playing to the crowd a bit... They mentioned this as a possibility on Sherdog and I totally agree -- he was prolonging the fight to make it more exciting for the fans. He could have subbed Watanabe in the first had he wanted to, but he preferred to keep the fight going. He's known for putting on the most exciting fights, and in interviews often talks about how important it is to him to put on a good show, and I think he cares even more about that than about securing the win (probably not just for this fight, either). I really think he felt he wasn't in much danger and was sandbagging for the sake of excitement.

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by lasker

my favorite moment too, and I'm a huge Aoki fan! That cowardly display in the first round made me start rooting for Nagashima! Good job again with your picks. I think Tokoro was playing to the crowd a bit... They mentioned this as a possibility on Sherdog and I totally agree -- he was prolonging the fight to make it more exciting for the fans. He could have subbed Watanabe in the first had he wanted to, but he preferred to keep the fight going. He's known for putting on the most exciting fights, and in interviews often talks about how important it is to him to put on a good show, and I think he cares even more about that than about securing the win (probably not just for this fight, either). I really think he felt he wasn't in much danger and was sandbagging for the sake of excitement.

Possibly, but it makes you look kind of silly when it takes you like 6 armbars to finish an MMA rookie lol. Watanabe actually did a good job of powering out of most of them. Im not an Aoki fan so I was more than pleased with the result lol.

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 01:22 PM

Adding some final plays for 125. Im going against the grain and making a play on Soto. If he gets subbed in the 3rd after gassing Ill be angry with myself lol.

Adding:

Soto (-109) 1.63 units to win 1.5 units
Edgar-Maynard goes the distance / Grispi 2-fight parlay (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units

UFC 125 Recap:

Kim (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Vera (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units
Gomi/Guida goes the distance (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
Stephens (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Soto (-109) 1.63 units to win 1.5 units
Edgar-Maynard goes the distance / Grispi 2-fight parlay (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units

Hedges and Flyers:

Gomi/Guida FOTN (+525) 0.75 units to win 3.9375 units
Davis/Stephens FOTN (+650)0.25units to win 1.625 units
Grispi Quickest Sub (+425) 0.25 units to win 1.0625
Diaz by Sub (+556) 0.5 units to win 2.78 units
Gomi by TKO (+354) 0.55 units to win 1.947 units

GL!

**99Boxster** · 12-31-10, 01:32 PM

That shit was funny! After all the Aoki shenanigans. All of those jumping double kicks and deliberate falls to the mat. Then he gets KO'd by a nasty flying knee in 2 seconds.

**99Boxster** · 12-31-10, 01:43 PM

How did you get Stephens at -135? Only site that had him at that was sportsbook at open. so i guess that is how?

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 02:03 PM

Some quick thoughts on the Kim/Diaz fight. First and foremost, I wouldnt read too much into what Kim is saying about going for the KO. He may mix it up and stand for a bit, but I fully expect him to use his superior grappling throughout the fight as well. Also, don't let Kim's past performances fool you - he has decent striking and solid power. If you watch any of his fights in DEEP you will see that his technique isnt bad and when he lands, it hurts. As for Diaz's boxing, its good but its not on his brother's level. He relies more on his length and his defence isnt as good. He leaves himself open when he gets aggressive and I think Kim can take advantage of it. As well, Diaz is used to having a sizable height and reach advantage. That wont be the case in this fight. They have the same reach and Kim is an inch taller. I dont believe Diaz will be able to pitter-patter from a distance because of this. This will also allow Kim to get inside and get Diaz up against the fence in the clinch. Kim can do some real damage in this position and I dont think Diaz will have much of an answer for it.

Grappling wise, I think Kim has a definitive advantage. Diaz's biggest hole is TDD. Anytime he has faced anyone with decent takedowns, he has struggled. Pellegrino, Stevenson, Maynard and Guida were able to take him down with relative ease. Now he's going to be facing a guy who is bigger than him and who has a stifling top game. If Kim wants to take this fight to the ground and keep it there, he can, with relative ease IMO. He absolutely dominated both of his last 2 fights. He was never in any danger and kept his pace throughout. TJ Grant is a very good grappler and Kim controlled him without being threatened at all. Kim has great GnP and is very effective at keeping busy to avoid stand-ups. One of the early questions about Kim was his cardio. He seems to have solved that as he hasnt gassed at all in his last 2 fights. You can never count out Diaz though and he is pretty dangerous from his back. However, Kim has very good sub defense and he doesnt put himself in bad positions from the top. Overall, I think its Kim's fight to lose. I expect him to control where the fight takes place Diaz is going to find himself on the defensive for most of the fight.

**Eccocide** · 12-31-10, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by 99Boxster

How did you get Stephens at -135? Only site that had him at that was sportsbook at open. so i guess that is how?

Yeah I played it at sportsbook. He actually opened at +110 on Sportsbook. It stayed at -135 for a while after I posted the play (couple hours at least), even after other books opened him up at -165ish.

**Shagdogy** · 12-31-10, 06:38 PM

With you all the way on the Kim/Diaz thoughts. I'm looking for a repeat performance of what he did vs. Sodallah. He has to know Diaz is dangerous off his back, and he will be very aware of all the sub attempts I hope. This is my biggest play... 4 units. Good luck!

**Jordan23** · 12-31-10, 07:14 PM

Good job on coming out positive on the Dream card. I did a 2 fight parlay with Kyotaro and Overeem but Gegard was game! It's seems like you had a nice year overall. What is your goal for this year? 100 units? That'd be nice huh? Good luck!

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

With you all the way on the Kim/Diaz thoughts. I'm looking for a repeat performance of what he did vs. Sodallah. He has to know Diaz is dangerous off his back, and he will be very aware of all the sub attempts I hope. This is my biggest play... 4 units. Good luck!

GL Shag!

Originally posted by Jordan23

Good job on coming out positive on the Dream card. I did a 2 fight parlay with Kyotaro and Overeem but Gegard was game! It's seems like you had a nice year overall. What is your goal for this year? 100 units? That'd be nice huh? Good luck!

100 units would be great! I don't set goals because I find that it leads to chasing, trying to reach the mark. However, I'm always hoping to improve on my results so hopefully I can beat 2010 results lol.

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 02:22 PM

Diaz by sub down from when I played it at +556 to +261. These props always have crazy line moves.

**bettorjon** · 01-01-11, 02:42 PM

who has the best chance of winning in tonight UFC or should i say the best to pour in some dough?

TIA

BOL

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by bettorjon

who has the best chance of winning in tonight UFC or should i say the best to pour in some dough? TIA BOL

Without worrying about the size of the lines I think Grispi has the best chance of winning tonight. Taking lines into account, I dont think there's anything thats a huge "lock" on this card. Kim is my favourite play based on the line. GL!

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC 125 Recap:

Kim (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Vera (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units
Gomi/Guida goes the distance (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
Stephens (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Soto (-109) 1.63 units to win 1.5 units
Edgar-Maynard goes the distance / Grispi 2-fight parlay (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units

Hedges and Flyers:

Gomi/Guida FOTN (+525) 0.75 units to win 3.9375 units
Davis/Stephens FOTN (+650)0.25units to win 1.625 units
Grispi Quickest Sub (+425) 0.25 units to win 1.0625
Diaz by Sub (+556) 0.5 units to win 2.78 units
Gomi by TKO (+354) 0.55 units to win 1.947 units

GL!

5Dimes adding some late props. I like the value in this one so I added it.

Adding:

Baroni/Tavares Over 2.5 rounds (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units

**Vaughany** · 01-01-11, 04:59 PM

Hmmm, Dong is Evens underdog now on Bookmaker.

**Vaughany** · 01-01-11, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Hmmm, Dong is Evens underdog now on Bookmaker.

Scratch that! Just gone back to -110 again!

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Hmmm, Dong is Evens underdog now on Bookmaker.

?? Im showing it at -130 on bookmaker, Diaz is EV.

**Vaughany** · 01-01-11, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

?? Im showing it at -130 on bookmaker, Diaz is EV.

Yeah was very brief, there is quite a lot of sporadic line movement, Thiago Silva went from -115 to -150 a minute ago on Pinnacle.

**99Boxster** · 01-01-11, 05:27 PM

Ecco can u do a brief writeup on baroni/tavares for me. I am having trouble not going HUGE on brad. I'd give pts if i had some