Eccocide's MMA Picks

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah was very brief, there is quite a lot of sporadic line movement, Thiago Silva went from -115 to -150 a minute ago on Pinnacle.

This seems to happen a lot when odds are close in a fight, like around EV to -150. Lots of movement occurs but never leaves that window.

Originally posted by 99Boxster

Ecco can u do a brief writeup on baroni/tavares for me. I am having trouble not going HUGE on brad. I'd give pts if i had some

I havent seen a whole lot of Tavares other than from the show and his fight with Baczynski. He's standup is pretty sharp for a guy that doesnt have a whole lot of experience, and hes working with Sean Tompkins if I remember correctly, so that seems to be the base he is working on. I think the line is a too high here in all honesty. I know Baroni is shot, but I think he's much better suited at this weight class (185lb). He never had a great gas tank to begin with, but that big cut wasnt doing him any favours. I think at 185lb, he should be able to keep up his pace for a little longer than he has in his last handful of fights. As well, he's been training at AKA for this fight and has been taking it very seriously. Will that be enough? Prolly not, but I expect this fight to be closer than a lot of ppl do and I cant justify laying -250ish on a green guy like Tavares against a very desperate Baroni.

**99Boxster** · 01-01-11, 06:07 PM

I hope I'm not bothering you. What is the current line on the Maynard/Edgar fight going the distance?

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by 99Boxster

I hope I'm not bothering you. What is the current line on the Maynard/Edgar fight going the distance?

No worries! Im showing -260 at 5dimes.

**99Boxster** · 01-01-11, 06:25 PM

I ended just going Edgar by decision +160

**rocky mattioli** · 01-01-11, 06:28 PM

that line is now -260 at 5 dimes.......that is a bad line,imo....

**ThisGuy** · 01-01-11, 06:35 PM

I had same thought Ecco. Small value play on Baroni just because I think the line is mispriced based on the unknowns

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by ThisGuy

I had same thought Ecco. Small value play on Baroni just because I think the line is mispriced based on the unknowns

GL! Nothing wrong with a value play at those odds.

**Eccocide** · 01-01-11, 07:14 PM

One small parlay for fun:

Adding:

Gomi by TKO / Leben by TKO (+1100) 2-fight parlay 0.35 units to win 3.85 units

UFC 125 Recap:

Kim (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Vera (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units
Gomi/Guida goes the distance (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
Stephens (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Soto (-109) 1.63 units to win 1.5 units
Baroni/Tavares Over 2.5 rounds (+170) 1 unit to win 1.7 units
Edgar-Maynard goes the distance / Grispi 2-fight parlay (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units

Hedges and Flyers:

Gomi/Guida FOTN (+525) 0.75 units to win 3.9375 units
Davis/Stephens FOTN (+650)0.25units to win 1.625 units
Grispi Quickest Sub (+425) 0.25 units to win 1.0625
Diaz by Sub (+556) 0.5 units to win 2.78 units
Gomi by TKO (+354) 0.55 units to win 1.947 units
Gomi by TKO / Leben by TKO (+1100) 2-fight parlay 0.35 units to win 3.85 units

**hels** · 01-01-11, 09:18 PM

DUSTIN the "DIAMOND" poirier

fail of a nickname.

**ThisGuy** · 01-01-11, 10:51 PM

I'm a fan

**bettorjon** · 01-01-11, 11:17 PM

can leben and maynard win?

your thoughts pls.

you already gave me a win in the kim fight.

thanks

**Jordan23** · 01-01-11, 11:30 PM

I really didn't expect Vera to get grapple raped by Silva.. very very surprising.

**ThisGuy** · 01-01-11, 11:33 PM

Started off looking like FOTN but that 3rd round put a kabosh to that propola

**Eccocide** · 01-02-11, 10:53 AM

Oh boy. What a crappy way to start off 2011! Well that event was worse than any event for me in 2010

. A couple of the guys I bet on looked like they were out partying on NYE and were still hungover. Grispi gassed after half a round, Vera all of a sudden couldnt defend a TD/Trip, just dreadful. I was due for a poor outing I guess. All the little flyers and props added up as none of them hit

. Anyway time to forget this mess!

UFC 125 Results: -7.04 units

**snake11eyes** · 01-02-11, 10:59 AM

Everyone's going to have a bad event. You will get back on track at 126.

**Vaughany** · 01-02-11, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Everyone's going to have a bad event. You will get back on track at 126.

Bounce back with Fight for the Troops first Snake then 126! Im due a negative night soon...probably best you got yours out of the way nice and early in the year!

**Eccocide** · 01-02-11, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Bounce back with Fight for the Troops first Snake then 126! Im due a negative night soon...probably best you got yours out of the way nice and early in the year!

Haha yeah I guess thats one way to look at it.

**snake11eyes** · 01-02-11, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Bounce back with Fight for the Troops first Snake then 126! Im due a negative night soon...probably best you got yours out of the way nice and early in the year!

Yea I looked at bfo real quick. I missed two strikeforce events as well. It's still early. lol

**terpkeg** · 01-02-11, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Oh boy. What a crappy way to start off 2011! Well that event was worse than any event for me in 2010

. A couple of the guys I bet on looked like they were out partying on NYE and were still hungover. Grispi gassed after half a round, Vera all of a sudden couldnt defend a TD/Trip, just dreadful. I was due for a poor outing I guess. All the little flyers and props added up as none of them hit

. Anyway time to forget this mess!

UFC 125 Results: -7.04 units

Just put it out of mine and dont let it effect your future betting patterns. One bad night can't damper sunch a positive 2010 anyway.

I went down on Vera as well. That was very painful to watch. It was amazing to me that he couldnt stop the takedown. If anything, I thought you might see Vera dropping for a double out of some exchanges. He should be getting the walking papers.

**Shagdogy** · 01-02-11, 12:01 PM

Bad night Ecco... you and me both. At least we have the Kim win! Haha. I've been thinking for a while that I need to go bigger on the plays that I really love and pick fewer mid-level plays. This card certainly backs up that theory. We'll get em on Fight for the Troops. First glance has me loving Barry, Mitrione, and Miller... gotta watch those odds.

**lasker** · 01-02-11, 12:33 PM

Get em next time Ecco, this is just a rare miss for you.

**Jordan23** · 01-02-11, 05:16 PM

You will bounce back!

**Eccocide** · 01-12-11, 06:03 PM

UFC 126:

Franklin/Griffin goes the distance (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units

**Eccocide** · 01-12-11, 06:08 PM

UFC 126:

Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance / Ellenberger-Rocha doesnt go the distance 2-fight parlay (+125) 2 units to win 2.5 units

**urge2kill** · 01-12-11, 06:37 PM

I like Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance.

**lasker** · 01-12-11, 06:52 PM

And I like Franklin-Griffin goes the distance -120

**Eccocide** · 01-12-11, 07:59 PM

UFN 23:

Dunham/Barry 2-fight parlay (+108) 2 units to win 2.16 units

**The HOFF** · 01-12-11, 08:26 PM

Ellenberger/Rocha doesn't go the distance.

I jumped on this one.

**Eccocide** · 01-12-11, 08:35 PM

UFN 23:

Wiman/Miller goes the distance (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units

**Eccocide** · 01-12-11, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Ellenberger/Rocha doesn't go the distance.

I jumped on this one.

Originally posted by lasker

And I like Franklin-Griffin goes the distance -120

Originally posted by urge2kill

I like Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance.

Yeah I haven't found much value I like fight-wise but I do like me some props!

**Jordan23** · 01-12-11, 11:14 PM

I'm all over Wiman/Miller going the distance. Good call. I definitely think this one hits!

**Eccocide** · 01-13-11, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by Jordan23

I'm all over Wiman/Miller going the distance. Good call. I definitely think this one hits!

Let's hope so!

UFC 129:

Bocek (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units

**Mr.Kitty** · 01-13-11, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Let's hope so! UFC 129: Bocek (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units

Must say im looking foward for this fight! Said to myself that if either one comes out as a "big" dog I would take him. Thought the odds would be a bit more even, was actually hoping that Bendo would be the dog because I like him to win but +145 must be nice value on Bocek.

**Eccocide** · 01-13-11, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

Must say im looking foward for this fight! Said to myself that if either one comes out as a "big" dog I would take him. Thought the odds would be a bit more even, was actually hoping that Bendo would be the dog because I like him to win but +145 must be nice value on Bocek.

Yeah I think this is an awesome matchup. I honestly thought the odds would be flipped with Bocek being around -140. I was pretty excited to get him as a dog.

**Eccocide** · 01-13-11, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC 126:

Franklin/Griffin goes the distance (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC 126:

Silva-Belfort doesn't go the distance / Ellenberger-Rocha doesnt go the distance 2-fight parlay (+125) 2 units to win 2.5 units

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFN 23:

Wiman/Miller goes the distance (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units

Glad I got these lines when I did.

Franklin/Griffin from -120 to -210, Ellenberger-Rocha went from -190 to -230, Silva-Belfort from -210 to -260 and Wiman/Miller from -120 to -145.