VERY surprised Shogun came out as a +155 dog...not many champions come out as underdogs. What book did you use to get this line?
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I guess we will see in just 6 weeksOriginally posted by snake11eyes
. This will be Shogun/Overeem 3, same outcome as the first 2 
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bookmaker has him at +155 right now.Originally posted by xelanceComment -
wow...im definitely taking Shogun. thanks for the headsupComment -
I bought back 2 units on Jones at -170 and replayed Shogun at +185 for 2 units. So it essentially works out as follows:Originally posted by Eccocide
Shogun (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units
Jones (-170) 3.4 units to win 2 units
Shogun (+185) 2 units to win 3.7 units
So it basically works out to:
Shogun (+170) 2 units to win 3.4 units
And I added another unit at +185.
Shogun (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units
So in Summary lol:
UFC 128:
Shogun (+170) 2 units to win 3.4 units
Shogun (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 unitsComment -
UFC on Versus 3:
CB Dolloway (+185) 1.5 units to win 2.775 unitsComment -
Good to see you on Dollaway as well. I grabbed 185 when it first came out. I thought it would have dropped a little by now. I also have him in a few parlays.Originally posted by EccocideComment -
love itOriginally posted by Eccocide
I have him in some parlays as well.
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Originally posted by snake11eyesTnx boys.Originally posted by laskerlove it I have him in some parlays as well.Comment -
Yeah Dolloway bet makes sense when u consider that people saw value in Simpson at +145 when he was against Munoz. IMO Dolloway is a younger and slightly better version of Simpson. Im probly gonna take Dolloway by decision prop tho as Im not sure he can finish Munoz.Comment -
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva:
Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 unitsComment -
Fred Simmons would DESTROY Jon Jones.
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Adding:Originally posted by Eccocide
Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 unitsComment -
Adding:
Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
you are on Sefo?
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Ya its a small play and its more of a fade of Overeem. He's looked dreadful over the last couple of years. He's fought very limited competiton, some guys with losing records and has only won 4 of his last 10. He has no notable wins over that time period and has some very bad losses. He has a tendency to want to stand and seems to rarely follow any sort of gameplan. He's had one sub with since 2003 and has really neglected his ground game. I just don't think he should be a -160 favourite against many ppl at this stage of his career and against a guy who may be one dimensional but is very good at that dimension. Overeem could potentially be smart and get this to the ground and work for the sub but I just don't see that happening and I'll take my chances with the dog in this case. As well, Sefo's been at Xtreme Couture for a little while now so I figure he will be somewhat prepared to stuff the TD and work to keep it standing. Small play though.Originally posted by xelanceyou are on Sefo?Comment -
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva Recap:
Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units
That will prolly be all. I lean Cholish but I was only going to play him at -150 or better. I may have one more play, depending on the line move, but that is it for now.Comment -
I got him at -135 for 4 units...I think I will just let it play out and hope for the best....no real arb value hereComment -
looks solidOriginally posted by Eccocide
small plays on Arlovski and Rosario for me, under is also tempting in the Rosario fight...I think Johnson either catches him early or he gasses late in the first.
GLComment -
Tnx Ill, GL to you tonight. I totally agree with that assessment. I figured the line would be closer to -200 for U 1.5 so I had to play it.Originally posted by illmatickComment -
Johnson has no cardio. Hopefully he gases and Del Rosario makes quick work of him.Originally posted by Eccocide
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Good job on 126 ecco... just checking out your strikeforce plays and I'm right with you on 'em. I've been giving Sefo a hard look myself as a dog. Just don't trust Overeem at -160 for the reasons you said. Arlovski scares me a bit so I can't pull the trigger on that one yet. Still deciding.... gotta get to it today.Comment -
Tnx Shag. Yeah I dont blame anyone for being hesitant to back Arlovski. I just think this is a good spot for him and his head seems to be in the right place. Kharitonov has looked very pedestrian over the past couple of years and his movement has really suffered due to his back injuries. I think speed and angles will be the difference in this matchup.Originally posted by ShagdogyComment -
I like the Sefo play. Too bad you cant get sefo by submission anywhere. Mini Overeem tapping to punches wouldn't be surprising.Comment -
Can get tht prop on bookmaker I think.Originally posted by bogbatComment -
+550 for Sefo by sub. No thanks.Comment -
I waited for this play to see if it would get to -110 or better and it has hit -110 so Im going to play it. I may regret it as either guy can finish the fight with one punch, but I like this one to get out of the first.
Adding:
Arlovski/Kharitonov Starts Round 2 (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Silva Recap:
Fedor/Silva Over 1.5 Rounds (-113) 2.26 units to win 2 units
Arlovski (+110) 1.5 units to win 1.65 units
Del Rosario/Johnson Under 1.5 Rounds (-175) 2.625 units to win 1.5 units
Sefo (+144) 1.25 units to win 1.8 units
Arlovski/Kharitonov Starts Round 2 (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Thats it for tonight. GL tonight everyone!Comment -
Ive been eyeing that one as well. BOLOriginally posted by EccocideComment -
GL with your big play on Rosario Hoff.Originally posted by The HOFFJohnson has no cardio. Hopefully he gases and Del Rosario makes quick work of him.
I'm hoping this one goes nowhere near the ground, even if its GnP lol. Overeem used to have some decent leglocks in his arsenal!Originally posted by bogbat
Yeah the odds are enticing. GL tonight Terp.Originally posted by terpkegComment -
GL tonight Ecco, Im likin the prop plays...I think Arlovski will start very cautiously against Kharitonov and could see alot of feeling out and circling in Rnd 1.Comment -
Strikeforce Results: -0.9 units
Small loss on the night. Arlovski screws me again. The late add of Starts Round 2 put me in the negative for the night. Dana White is having a good laugh right now
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UFC 129:
UFC 129:
Bocek (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
Hominick (+330) 1 unit to win 3.3 unitsComment -
I like this pick personally.. I just can't pull the trigger on this one.Originally posted by EccocideComment -
Tachi Palace
camoes (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 unitsComment -
UFC 127:
Sotiropolous by Submission (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 unitsComment
