Eccocide's MMA Picks

[Eccocide]

Tachi Palace

Camoes (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 units

Adding:

Montague (+130) 1.25 units to win 1.625 units

[phillybadboy]

when are the fights?

[kiefynugs]

Tachi Palace

camoes (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 units

what makes you say camoes? I only ask because Lopez had a rough UFC career but he's definitely a legit wrestler with some KO power.

[Eccocide]

when are the fights?

Tachi Palace is on Friday.

what makes you say camoes? I only ask because Lopez had a rough UFC career but he's definitely a legit wrestler with some KO power.

I don't have a lot of time but I like the spot for Camoes. Lopez is definitely a good wrestler but Im not sure he will want to try and be in a grappling match or be in Camoes's guard for 3 rounds. Camoes has a great ground game. He was all over Pellegrino and giving him fits until Kurt fell to the ground and Camoes landed on his head. As well, Lopez is taking this fight on a couple weeks notice and he hasnt shown much aptitude for following a gameplan.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Strikeforce Challengers 14:

Healy (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units

Strikeforce/Tachi Palace Parlay:

Gunderson/Apple 2-fight parlay (-113) 1.695 units to win 1.5 units



Strikeforce Challengers/Tachi Palace Recap:

Camoes (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 units
Montague (+130) 1.25 units to win 1.625 units
Healy (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units
Gunderson/Apple 2-fight parlay (-113) 1.695 units to win 1.5 units

[illmatick]

really like what i watched on Montague.

Gomez's takedowns aren't overly impressive . I see him eating the same type of heavy shots he took against Rambaa. Monatague's moderate wrestling background along with his descent sprawl should be enough to avoid being submitted imo.

latest interview i could find on Montague

[rocky mattioli]

montague a much better striker..
and like the fact that he`s a lefty...
...the worry is he might be spending too much time on his back....

[Eccocide]

Camoes wins in 23 secs, but Gunderson dissappoints.

Adding:

Travers/Apple 2-fight parlay 2 units to win 2.26 units

[rocky mattioli]

montague toying with gomez so far...very nice eye,ecco...

[Eccocide]

Very impressed by Larsons td's. Didnt think he would be able to easily take apple down like that. Bad late add!

[Eccocide]

montague toying with gomez so far...very nice eye,ecco...

Yeah that a stellar performance from the mongoose. Tnx.

Strikeforce/Tachi Palace Results: +1.78 units

Coulda had another 2 units of profit if I didnt convince myself to add another parlay lol. My 3 straight bets which include 2 dogs won, yet my 2 parlays with decent size favs lost!

[Eccocide]

MMA YTD: +4.8 units

[Eccocide]

Was hoping to see this line climb back into the +190's but I'll play it now cuz its prolly going to start to drop.

Strikeforce Feijao vs Henderson:

Feijao (+184) 1.5 units to win 2.76 units

[xelance]

shit, I thought Strikeforce was on today!!!! GRRRRRRRRRRR I was going to re-up my bet on Healy, just realized it was last night LOL

[Camdemonium]

Tachi Palace

camoes (-140) 2.8 units to win 2 units

Good pick man. He did well. Won me 0.65u!

[Eccocide]

Good pick man. He did well. Won me 0.65u!

Tnk ya sir. I cant say it was exactly how I expected it to go, but ill take it haha.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

UFC 127:

Bisping/Rivera Under 2.5 Rounds (-106) 1.59 units to win 1.5 units

[VBPro7]

Ah missed the picks this weekend, was out in Vegas and forgot the lappy.

[MMAdisciple]

Adding:

UFC 127:

Bisping/Rivera Under 2.5 Rounds (-106) 1.59 units to win 1.5 units

What makes you pick this? Rivera's tank + Bisping will only lose by KO?

[Eccocide]

Ah missed the picks this weekend, was out in Vegas and forgot the lappy.

Hope your trip was a good one!

What makes you pick this? Rivera's tank + Bisping will only lose by KO?

I know its counter-intuitive to choose a Bisping fight to end inside the distance but I think this is a good spot lol. As you stated, Rivera isn't known for his gas tank. He's 38 years old and is pretty one dimensional. He relies heavily on waning heavy blows, which in turn gasses out his arms and his technique tends to go out the window pretty fast once that happens. Although Bisping isn't exactly a power puncher, he did have Akiyama in some serious danger in his last fight. Once Akiyama started to gas, it was easy pickings for Bisping to land his shots. Akiyama has a serious chin, while Rivera's is quite susceptable. All 7 of his losses have been by KO or sub and he's only went the distance once in the last 5 years. As for Bisping, he's been hurt even in some of the fights he's won. I expect Rivera to be pretty aggressive and he could possibly land the big shot or he could leave himself open. I also wouldnt be very surprised to see Bisping shoot in for the TD and work some GnP in the second half of the fight if it goes that far. Im not sure Rivera will have the stamina to defend himself as the fight wears on.

[Eccocide]

And on that note, a prop flyer. I think its decent value as I can see Rivera giving up his back for a RNC at some point.

Adding:

Bisping by Sub (+1400) 0.25 units to win 3.5 units

[Eccocide]

So I am waiting for bookmaker and pinny to put out lines for the Fisher fight since 5dimes has already had it out for a while and I missed Fisher at +175 (assuming one of those 2 books would have a better number). So Im waiting, waiting and they arent putting anything out. So I go to play Fisher at +150 at 5dimes and bam its down to +120. It musta just got hit pretty hard.

[MMAdisciple]

I know its counter-intuitive to choose a Bisping fight to end inside the distance but I think this is a good spot lol. As you stated, Rivera isn't known for his gas tank. He's 38 years old and is pretty one dimensional. He relies heavily on waning heavy blows, which in turn gasses out his arms and his technique tends to go out the window pretty fast once that happens. Although Bisping isn't exactly a power puncher, he did have Akiyama in some serious danger in his last fight. Once Akiyama started to gas, it was easy pickings for Bisping to land his shots. Akiyama has a serious chin, while Rivera's is quite susceptable. All 7 of his losses have been by KO or sub and he's only went the distance once in the last 5 years. As for Bisping, he's been hurt even in some of the fights he's won. I expect Rivera to be pretty aggressive and he could possibly land the big shot or he could leave himself open. I also wouldnt be very surprised to see Bisping shoot in for the TD and work some GnP in the second half of the fight if it goes that far. Im not sure Rivera will have the stamina to defend himself as the fight wears on.

I'm thinking like this, too. It wasn't long ago Bisping stopped Denis Kang with strikes...if Rivera isn't gassing and getting finished somehow; Bisping is lying on the mat.

Bisping-dec & inside, Rivera-KO props worked into parlays.

[Birdman126]

Good luck...

[Vaughany]

And on that note, a prop flyer. I think its decent value as I can see Rivera giving up his back for a RNC at some point.

Adding:

Bisping by Sub (+1400) 0.25 units to win 3.5 units

Yeah this is great value IMO. All the Euro sites have got this at +550 to +650 range.

[Eccocide]

Yeah this is great value IMO. All the Euro sites have got this at +550 to +650 range.

Down to +700 on 5dimes now.

Well I missed the openers so I dunno how many more plays I will have. There were a couple fights that I woulda played at the openers but the lines have moved and the value is lost. I'll wait and see what happens with the movement but nothing else right now.

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Fukuda (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units

UFC 127 (So Far):

Sotiropolous by Submission (+100) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Bisping/Rivera Under 2.5 Rounds (-106) 1.59 units to win 1.5 units
Fukuda (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
Bisping by Sub (+1400) 0.25 units to win 3.5 units

[Eccocide]

Adding:

Fisher (+160) 1.25 units to win 2 units

[Eccocide]

Adding more on Fukuda at this price:

Fukuda (-116) 0.58 units to win 0.5 units

[xelance]

fukuda -135 and fisher +145 on bookmaker, fml!

[rocky mattioli]

i knew ring had decent stand-up..i didn`t know he was so quick on the mat....

here he is out-grappling joe doerksen....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDgjtMygKwQ&feature=related

fukuda looks strong....but he looks a little slow and ponderous...he`s constantly looking for takedowns and he lost a decision to doerksen early in his career...

does ring`s quickness worry you,ecco?....

.

[SweatySombrero]

like Nate, Serra and Paulo as well.

o yeah, all the time

[Eccocide]

fukuda -135 and fisher +145 on bookmaker, fml!

I'd suggest signing up for 5Dimes if you havent already. Bookmaker is great for openers but their odds fall flat after that.

i knew ring had decent stand-up..i didn`t know he was so quick on the mat....

here he is out-grappling joe doerksen....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDgjtMygKwQ&feature=related

fukuda looks strong....but he looks a little slow and ponderous...he`s constantly looking for takedowns and he lost a decision to doerksen early in his career...

does ring`s quickness worry you,ecco?....

.

Fukuda is a solid wrestler, relentless and IMO he can put Ring on his back in this fight if he chooses to. He usually likes to use his wrestling in reverse to keep the fight standing and that might be the case in this one as Ring is more comfortable on the ground than he is standing. Ring has some pretty slick JJ but he's much better from the top position. In the standup, Nick is prolly quicker and is a little more technical but Riki has some nasty power and Ring's head movement and footwork leave much to be desired. I've been impressed with Fukuda's recent run (albeit against average competition) and I thought he won that split decision loss to Villasenor back in Elite XC. If Fukuda fights aggressive and dictates the pace I think this is his fight to lose. He gets in trouble when he gets tentative, sits back and tries to counter.

Its also very important to remember Ring is coming off of a 16 month layoff after his third ACL reconstruction. Going back to your question on speed, I'm not sure how fast he will be on that robot knee. He likes to use a lot of kicks in his standup arsenal and combine the fact that he is coming off another knee rebuild and hes facing a very good wrestler, I expect him to be pretty tentative with his attack. As for Fukuda's loss to Doersken, I dont think that really means anything as it was his first MMA fight and it was around 7 years ago.

All that being said, no I wouldnt be overly surprised if Ring catches Fukuda in a triangle or something similar if he gets to overzealous.

[jacktheknife]

Anybody wondering why Zhang is more the 2.5 to one when Reinhart is more experienced, has been training with Wand fight team and Spencer Fisher, is generally built like a brick kybo and there's no evidence that Zhang's can conquests were any more skilled then his?

[Vaughany]

Anybody wondering why Zhang is more the 2.5 to one when Reinhart is more experienced, has been training with Wand fight team and Spencer Fisher, is generally built like a brick kybo and there's no evidence that Zhang's can conquests were any more skilled then his?

Add me to that wondering list! I think that this should be more like Reinhardt +125. I guess the submission of Garza has left a big mark. Maybe he is just a can-crusher tho!