Eccocide's MMA Picks

Eccocide · 03-09-11, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

It might be a bit early, but those lines on Frank Mir and Brain Stann look fuckin ripe, and they don't look to stay that way.

If you are planning on playing Mir I'd just wait to take him by decision, I don't see him finishing Nelson. And I'm undecided on Stann/Santiago. Santiago is better in all areas except for chin/power. I hate just banking on a guy because he can land that one shot to finish it. But at the same time, its hard to take a guy with a suspect chin against a power puncher.

Vaughany · 03-09-11, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

If you are planning on playing Mir I'd just wait to take him by decision, I don't see him finishing Nelson.

I agree, Dos Santos couldn't finish Nelson so I find it hard to envisage finishing Nelson with strikes, and obviously their BJJ should neutralise each others. But then Mir's cardio has never been that great and not like he is gonna be able to outwrestle Nelson to a decision. I actually think fight to go to decision could be a good value play at +225 or better.

jacktheknife · 03-10-11, 06:34 AM

Both sound great. Except I can only bet locally and have no access to props of any kind.

Frank's kickboxing has become so frightening it's hard not to imagine him posing the same problems to Roy as Dos Santos and Arlovski. Roy's best shot will be throwing that big center of gravity into clinch takedowns, and even if he does manage to close distance and close the deal, I daresay that on the ground with Frank Mir is notably deeper water then he's ever been in.

Santiago's a pimp in Japan. And turn the Misaki and Khalidov fights into 3-rounders and he's on a 0-4 run. Stann's biggest problem seems to be with wrestlers, and we've seen how he can handle a talented Jitsu-kickboxer. A taught, disciplined, Jacksonized Stann strikes me as a bigger threat then Kazuo Misaki, Or even such dangerous world-beaters as Jeremy Horn, Trevor Prangley, and yes, even Siyar Bahadurzada.

Either of these at pick-em level seem easier then they're let on to be.

omalley21 · 03-10-11, 01:23 PM

I dont think Mirs kickboxing is frightening or his ground game is too deep for Nelson. I see Nelson winning this one pretty easily. Agree on Stann tho.

Camdemonium · 03-10-11, 03:25 PM

I've never been impressed with Nelson. He probably has the same strategy for Mir that he did for Dos Santos. Block punches with face.

Eccocide · 03-10-11, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

Both sound great. Except I can only bet locally and have no access to props of any kind.

Frank's kickboxing has become so frightening it's hard not to imagine him posing the same problems to Roy as Dos Santos and Arlovski. Roy's best shot will be throwing that big center of gravity into clinch takedowns, and even if he does manage to close distance and close the deal, I daresay that on the ground with Frank Mir is notably deeper water then he's ever been in.

Santiago's a pimp in Japan. And turn the Misaki and Khalidov fights into 3-rounders and he's on a 0-4 run. Stann's biggest problem seems to be with wrestlers, and we've seen how he can handle a talented Jitsu-kickboxer. A taught, disciplined, Jacksonized Stann strikes me as a bigger threat then Kazuo Misaki, Or even such dangerous world-beaters as Jeremy Horn, Trevor Prangley, and yes, even Siyar Bahadurzada.

Either of these at pick-em level seem easier then they're let on to be.

Yeah I'm not all that impressed by Mir's standup. Is it improved? yes. Is it great or even very good? I'd say not IMO. JDS/Arlovski's standup are levels above Mir's, its not even close. As for the ground game, Nelson will be more than able to handle himself on the ground with Mir, especially if he is on top. I find it hard to imagine Mir getting Nelson to the ground on his own accord as his TD's arent very good.

As for Stann, again I'm not all that impressed by what he brings to the table. He was under 2 minutes from losing to Massenzio who was coming off of a 16 month layoff and was totally gassed in the 3rd. Yeah he beat Leben, but it turns out Leben is extremely ill, dehydrated and puking in the lockerroom before the fight. I'm just not convinced enough to back him against a guy who has a better skillset than he does. If it goes out there and works over Santiago then I will be a believer but I don't see the value in it right now (although others do).

I honestly wouldnt be very surprised by any outcome in these fights and thats the reason I'm laying off, at least till now (still have footage to watch).

Eccocide · 03-11-11, 09:03 PM

wow who comes out with lines on friday night. God that makes me so bitter lol. I cant believe Tibau opened up +115. I woulda loved that. That and Almeida at -130...dammit!

Eccocide · 03-11-11, 09:16 PM

Shark Fights 14:

Davila (+150) 1 unit to win 1.5 units

Eccocide · 03-11-11, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

Shark Fights 14:

Davila (+150) 1 unit to win 1.5 units

Shark Fights 14 Results: +1.5 units

kiefynugs · 03-12-11, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

wow who comes out with lines on friday night. God that makes me so bitter lol. I cant believe Tibau opened up +115. I woulda loved that. That and Almeida at -130...dammit!

I caught the Almeida line right when it came out at -155 but when i placed my bet they'd changed it to -160. I actually took Pellegrino at -120 (i think) hoping to arb but it went the opposite direction

ThisGuy · 03-12-11, 08:15 PM

wat no bellator?

Eccocide · 03-14-11, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by ThisGuy

wat no bellator?

Na, I didn't see much value in the card so I decided to take it off. Looking forward to this weekend though!

Eccocide · 03-14-11, 09:30 PM

Been without / will be without the net for this week. Damn cable company takes forever to come set me up. So I'll be posting sparringly, try to get my bets posted at least.

Originally posted by Eccocide

UFC 128:

Shogun (+170) 2 units to win 3.4 units
Shogun (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units

Adding:

Miller by 3 Round Decision (-103) 1.545 units to win 1.5 units
Marquardt/Tibau 2-fight parlay (+120) 2.5 units to win 3 units

Eccocide · 03-14-11, 09:33 PM

double post.

Eccocide · 03-14-11, 09:39 PM

Assuncao (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units

thesox0311 · 03-15-11, 06:20 AM

Good luck this weekend, love the +185 on Shogun....still cant believe the line on that fight

rocky mattioli · 03-16-11, 04:36 PM

having tito/lil nog(the 03/26 card) and marquardt/akiyama fall through kind of messes my card up a bit.......still on the fence regarding rua and jones....serious rua money apparently has pushed the odds down a bit....if it slides a little farther,i might take the plunge with jones....but there is the possibility that the experiemnce issue and the magnitude of the stage might affect jones(along with those rua kicks)....

a really interesting fight....has a bit in common with the lil nog/phil davis fight.....

g.l.,brother...

Eccocide · 03-16-11, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by thesox0311

Good luck this weekend, love the +185 on Shogun....still cant believe the line on that fight

thnx, GL to you as well. I've very excited from a fan's perspective for this card!

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

having tito/lil nog(the 03/26 card) and marquardt/akiyama fall through kind of messes my card up a bit.......still on the fence regarding rua and jones....serious rua money apparently has pushed the odds down a bit....if it slides a little farther,i might take the plunge with jones....but there is the possibility that the experiemnce issue and the magnitude of the stage might affect jones(along with those rua kicks)....

a really interesting fight....has a bit in common with the lil nog/phil davis fight.....

g.l.,brother...

I rate Phil's overall game over Jones at this point and Nog below Shogun, but yes theres a certain dynamic that is definitely similar. The next few cards are great. GL this weekend!

Eccocide · 03-16-11, 08:18 PM

Adding:

Faber/Wineland Over 1.5 Rounds (-151) 3.02 units to win 2 units
Philippou (+185) 1.25 units to win 2.3125 units
Marquardt Inside the Distance (+280) 1 unit to win 2.8 units
Jim Miller in Round 3 (+1300) 0.25 units to win 3.25 units

UFC 128 Recap:

Shogun (+170) 2 units to win 3.4 units
Shogun (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units
Jim Miller by 3 Round Decision (-103) 1.545 units to win 1.5 units
Jim Miller in Round 3 (+1300) 0.25 units to win 3.25 units
Marquardt/Tibau 2-fight parlay (+120) 2.5 units to win 3 units
Assuncao (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units
Faber/Wineland Over 1.5 Rounds (-151) 3.02 units to win 2 units
Philippou (+185) 1.25 units to win 2.3125 units
Marquardt Inside the Distance (+280) 1 unit to win 2.8 units

I may add one or 2 more plays depending on line movement.

Eccocide · 03-17-11, 08:57 PM

Adding:

Shogun by Sub (+1282) 0.25 units to win 3.205 units
Barboza quickest TKO (+850) 0.25 units to win 2.125 units

rocky mattioli · 03-18-11, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by Eccocide

thnx, GL to you as well. I've very excited from a fan's perspective for this card!

I rate Phil's overall game over Jones at this point and Nog below Shogun, but yes theres a certain dynamic that is definitely similar. The next few cards are great. GL this weekend!

i agree..i was thinking that both fights match young up and coming black,athletic phenoms vs established,experienced,battle tested pride stars...and that both fights were made due to injury issues to original opponents....

the odds definitely reflect that rua/jones appears to be the more competitive match-up...but who really knows?..

i look forward to watching barboza about as much an any recent ufc fighter i can think of...when i watched the youtube stuff on this guy i was utterly blown away...they matched him with a tall,dangerous striker...might get to see barboza`s grappling here..

not a dana fan,but this was excellent match-making...

break a leg this weekend,ecco...

Vulcan300 · 03-18-11, 12:15 PM

how do you like Barboza inside the distance at -150?

JohnGalt2341 · 03-18-11, 06:46 PM

A bit off topic here but I just got done watching the Jon Jones special. There was a part where they showed Greg Jackson in his office. In his office he had pictures of 4 famous people hanging on his wall. One of them was definitely Abraham Lincoln. I think another was Thomas Jefferson but I'm not positive. I think another may have been Lao Tzu but once again I'm not positive. I have no idea who the 4th guy was. Anyone have positive identities of all 4? Thanks!

Vaughany · 03-18-11, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by JohnGalt2341

A bit off topic here but I just got done watching the Jon Jones special. There was a part where they showed Greg Jackson in his office. In his office he had pictures of 4 famous people hanging on his wall. One of them was definitely Abraham Lincoln. I think another was Thomas Jefferson but I'm not positive. I think another may have been Lao Tzu but once again I'm not positive. I have no idea who the 4th guy was. Anyone have positive identities of all 4? Thanks!

Think ur mistaking Washington for Jefferson and Lao Tzu for Ghengis Kahn...but close! No idea who the other fella was...looks a bit like De Niro!!

rocky mattioli · 03-18-11, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Think ur mistaking Washington for Jefferson and Lao Tzu for Ghengis Kahn...but close! No idea who the other fella was...looks a bit like De Niro!!

looked to me like my old bud "vinny carwash"...

Eccocide · 03-19-11, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

i agree..i was thinking that both fights match young up and coming black,athletic phenoms vs established,experienced,battle tested pride stars...and that both fights were made due to injury issues to original opponents....

the odds definitely reflect that rua/jones appears to be the more competitive match-up...but who really knows?..

i look forward to watching barboza about as much an any recent ufc fighter i can think of...when i watched the youtube stuff on this guy i was utterly blown away...they matched him with a tall,dangerous striker...might get to see barboza`s grappling here..

not a dana fan,but this was excellent match-making...

break a leg this weekend,ecco...

Yeah, this is prolly my fav card in a while from top to bottom. Cant wait!

Originally posted by Vulcan300

how do you like Barboza inside the distance at -150?

Too heavy of a price for me. I think he wins, and most likely it will come inside the distance but -150 was much above what I was willing to pay. I thought it would be closer to +100.

Eccocide · 03-19-11, 09:14 AM

Adding:

Almeida/Marquardt 2-fight parlay (+107) 2 units to win 2.14 units

UFC 128 Recap:

Shogun (+170) 2 units to win 3.4 units & Shogun (+185) 1 units to win 1.85 units
Jim Miller by 3 Round Decision (-103) 1.545 units to win 1.5 units
Jim Miller in Round 3 (+1300) 0.25 units to win 3.25 units
Marquardt/Tibau 2-fight parlay (+120) 2.5 units to win 3 units
Assuncao (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units
Faber/Wineland Over 1.5 Rounds (-151) 3.02 units to win 2 units
Philippou (+185) 1.25 units to win 2.3125 units
Marquardt Inside the Distance (+280) 1 unit to win 2.8 units
Almeida/Marquardt 2-fight parlay (+107) 2 units to win 2.14 units
Shogun by Sub (+1282) 0.25 units to win 3.205 units
Barboza quickest TKO (+850) 0.25 units to win 2.125 units

GL tonight everyone!

Vaughany · 03-19-11, 09:24 AM

U gonna join HOFF's contest Ecco?

Eccocide · 03-19-11, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

U gonna join HOFF's contest Ecco?

Oh, didnt see it. Sure I'll be in

.

Mr.Kitty · 03-19-11, 10:39 AM

Good luck tonight Ecco. War Shogun!

Eccocide · 03-19-11, 08:11 PM

Whatever.

Miller/marquardt 2-fight parlay 3.76 units to win 3 units

xelance · 03-19-11, 10:34 PM

nice job on that miller round 3 call ecco!!!

Vaughany · 03-19-11, 10:36 PM

Yee nice one Ecco, tht will make up for the undercard losses.

Eccocide · 03-20-11, 10:48 AM

Thanks guys. It's a little consolation to hit a +1300 prop like that but the Almeida loss was annoying. I thought he won 29-28 and pretty much every site I checked had him winning 29-28 or even 30-27. It was definitely a close fight but I thought he did enough to win. The judges that scored it 30-27 for Pyle...I just don't get it lol. Anyway, the dogs are not a man's best friend as of late. Only one dog cashed this card (Pyle) and many thought he lost. Assuncao had a dreadful gameplan to stand and trade. Shogun was so gassed after 3 mins I couldn't believe it - even if he was coming off surgery. He fought on heart after that point. Congrats to Jones backers.

UFC 128 Results: +0.455 units

In a stagnant funk right now. Pretty much finished up or a down a little on every card. I think I'll see a big win or a big loss pretty soon lol.

Eccocide · 03-20-11, 10:53 AM

2011 MMA YTD: +6.3375 units...