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I've found that number to be +400 for me. Funny enough, I've actually had better luck on the +400 bets than those in the +300-350 range. I won on Gamburyan over Brown, and Doerkson over Lawlor... I did NOT, however, take James Toney at +450 haha. Sometimes you just have to lay off. I'm with Snake here... not quite ready to go against Bones. I think it's funny that there's all this talk about cardio being a big factor in this fight when everyone was knocking Bader as a legitimate title threat after his fight with lil' Nog because his cardio wasn't up to snuff. I think more than anything wrestling will decide this fight. Like people are saying... Bader's ticket is to put Bones on his back.Comment -
i mean a specific number depending on the matchup. i agree that it's hard to bet against Jones -- he looks amazing every time -- but it all depends on the odds. As for me, I capped this fight at around -300 for Jones, give or take a few, so if Bader's line keeps getting better (which is unlikely) I'll be betting on him.Comment -
Sorry guys, dont have much time now - just wanted to post this pick quick. Ill try to give a little breakdown of Kim/Diaz within the next couple days if I can. Busy with the family crap lol.
Adding:
UFC 125:
Gomi/Guida goes the distance (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
I will prolly hedge this with Gomi by TKO if theres value in the line.Comment -
UFC 125:
Stephens (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Once all the money flows in on Volkmann, I'll most likely be taking McKee if he gets to a solid number.Comment -
Dream Dynamite:
Kawajiri (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 unitsComment -
Dream Dynamite:
Uno (-115) 1.725 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
UFC 126:
Banuelos (+325) 1 unit to win 3.25 unitsComment -
Dream Dynamite:
Sakurai (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
Takaya (+200) 1 unit to win 2 units
I didn't expect to like this many Dream lines lol.Comment -
Lines all seem to be moving in my direction which is a good sign. I was hoping to get hioki at +190ish but the line hasn't shifted much. I'm hoping some late money will come in on sandro to get more value.Comment -
So was I. I thought Mckee would be a slight favorite. Fight to go to decision should be a solid bet though. These two are going to grapplefuck for 3 rounds.Comment -
Which book will offer that tho? Its not even 1 of the 3 pre-lims being shown on tht budget ION channel (probably because even the UFC realise it will most likely go the distance and will mess up the schedule of gettin 3 fights shown in the hour slot!) so wouldnt of thought it would be available
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Good point. I didn't think about that, probably won't even be odds for it.Which book will offer that tho? Its not even 1 of the 3 pre-lims being shown on tht budget ION channel (probably because even the UFC realise it will most likely go the distance and will mess up the schedule of gettin 3 fights shown in the hour slot!) so wouldnt of thought it would be availableComment -
Yeah I dont think we will see any prop lines for the McKee/Volkmann fight. McKee line got hammered down everywhere. It doesn't look like I'm gunna be putting a play on that one now.
I actually find myself in the minority here and like Soto against Roberts. If I can get Soto at EV I'll be making a play on him most likely. I may even take him at -110. We shall see. I think he has the strength and cardio advantage. Roberts gassed horribly in his fight vs. Petz and I believe this will be much more of a grueling match than that one. As well, even when he was able to secure TDs against Petz, he had a lot of trouble keeping him there. I can't see him getting Soto on his back too often which limits his ability to control the fight. Roberts obviously has amazing grappling credentials so Im not sure if Soto would be willing to take this fight to the ground. That's what is mostly holding me back from making a play. I havent seen much from either guy in the striking department that has really impressed me so its kind of an unknown.Last edited by Eccocide; 12-28-10, 05:16 PM.Comment -
UFC 125 Recap:
Kim (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Vera (+155) 2 units to win 3.1 units
Gomi/Guida goes the distance (+145) 2 units to win 2.9 units
Stephens (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
I'm still looking at a couple more plays on this card. Im also waiting for more of the prop lines to come out.
Dream Dynamite Recap:
Kawajiri (+160) 1.5 units to win 2.4 units
Uno (-115) 1.725 units to win 1.5 units
Sakurai (-115) 2.3 units to win 2 units
Takaya (+200) 1 unit to win 2 unitsComment -
gl sirComment -
Best of luck on your plays.
Curious as to why you like Hioki. Even at +200, you still would need him to win this fight over 1/3 of the time. Sandro has power you rarely find at 145 lbs. and Hioki doesnt have the greatest head and foot movement. I know he has never been finished, but has he fought anyone with the same finishing ability?
Do you see Hioki getting the takedown from the clinch because I don't see him landing a single.
My concern on taking Sandro is that Hioki does keep him tied up and lands takedown or two, turrning any portion of the fight into a grappling match and taking a weak decision despite getting beat up.
I would be suprised to see a submission win, but maybe I am wrong.Comment -
Ecco, can you remember whehter Pinnacle have had Sengoku events available to bet on before? Got another potential "miracle bet" on the cards as Chonan as 13/8 on Paddy! Just need to check that I can get Okuno as dog on another site before I go big on it tho!Comment -
I don't see it that way. I would have played Vera at EV to tell you the truth lol. I think this is a bad spot for Thiago. He is coming off of a year long layoff after surgery. I think ring rust is going to be a factor. As well, Vera has the height and reach advantage. I think Silva is going to have a hard time overcoming his length to get inside. I also think you will see Vera let go with some nasty kicks as Thiago will not be looking for the takedown. Even if he does, Vera is by far the better wrestler and his BJJ is underrated. I wouldnt be surprised to see him plant Thiago on his back a couple times. I believe his movement and technique are going to cause Thiago a lot of problems. Silva does have the power advantage, but his striking is very straight forward and aggressive. He doesn't use a lot of footwork and he leaves himself open. I just don't see many areas where Thiago has a definitive advantage that can win him the fight, other than a looping KO which Vera isnt very susceptable to.
u2 bud!
I think Hioki is one of, if not the best grappler at 145lb. If he fights smart and follows the gameplan, I think he has a great chance for the upset. He needs to work to the clinch and use some of those trips that he has to get this to the mat. I believe his reach and size will allow him to do this without exposing himself to much to the KO. The guy is unbelievable on the ground. His top game and specifically, his guard passing are impeccable. Couple that with his size for a 145lb and he's a beast on the ground. The question for me is whether he will fight smart, or do what he has seemed to do in a couple of fights and get goaded into fighting his opponents fight. Although his chin is pretty solid, his standup is lacking and he stands far too straight. Even with the reach advantage, I don't like his chances if he chooses to exchange. It could be a short night for him. One thing he does have going for him is that Sandro loves to throw that uppercut and it is one of his best weapons - Hioki's height advantage should keep him out of danger from it.
Sorry bud, I may be a little late but no, Pinny hasn't posted odds for Sengoku in the past. I know for sure they havent for the last handful, not sure about prior to that.Comment -
[quote=Eccocide;8128532]I don't see it that way. I would have played Vera at EV to tell you the truth lol. I think this is a bad spot for Thiago. He is coming off of a year long layoff after surgery. I think ring rust is going to be a factor. As well, Vera has the height and reach advantage. I think Silva is going to have a hard time overcoming his length to get inside. I also think you will see Vera let go with some nasty kicks as Thiago will not be looking for the takedown. Even if he does, Vera is by far the better wrestler and his BJJ is underrated. I wouldnt be surprised to see him plant Thiago on his back a couple times. I believe his movement and technique are going to cause Thiago a lot of problems. Silva does have the power advantage, but his striking is very straight forward and aggressive. He doesn't use a lot of footwork and he leaves himself open. I just don't see many areas where Thiago has a definitive advantage that can win him the fight, other than a looping KO which Vera isnt very susceptable to.
I couldnt agree more with everything you said. You didnt even touch on his suspect cardio. from the Dwarl fight, where I thought T. Silva was going to drop dead from exaustion in the 2nd, to Rashad some three years(?) later, I think it is safe to say this wil always be an issue for him. I got some +155 for much larger than my standard play. My only question now is do I peel some back and take a better number overall as this was my original plan, but almost want to leave it out there.
I think Hioki is one of, if not the best grappler at 145lb. If he fights smart and follows the gameplan, I think he has a great chance for the upset. He needs to work to the clinch and use some of those trips that he has to get this to the mat. I believe his reach and size will allow him to do this without exposing himself to much to the KO. The guy is unbelievable on the ground. His top game and specifically, his guard passing are impeccable. Couple that with his size for a 145lb and he's a beast on the ground. The question for me is whether he will fight smart, or do what he has seemed to do in a couple of fights and get goaded into fighting his opponents fight. Although his chin is pretty solid, his standup is lacking and he stands far too straight. Even with the reach advantage, I don't like his chances if he chooses to exchange. It could be a short night for him. One thing he does have going for him is that Sandro loves to throw that uppercut and it is one of his best weapons - Hioki's height advantage should keep him out of danger from it.
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I think your gonna talk me off this one. I guess -200 is too steep to lay against such a talented fighter on his own turf. I am always good to lose one large fav per Sengoku or DREAM event, maybe this was gonna be it.
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[quote=terpkeg;8128851]No doubt, Thiago's cardio is suspect. He cuts a lot of weight to make 205, and coming off of a prolonged layoff, it may be even worse for wear.I don't see it that way. I would have played Vera at EV to tell you the truth lol. I think this is a bad spot for Thiago. He is coming off of a year long layoff after surgery. I think ring rust is going to be a factor. As well, Vera has the height and reach advantage. I think Silva is going to have a hard time overcoming his length to get inside. I also think you will see Vera let go with some nasty kicks as Thiago will not be looking for the takedown. Even if he does, Vera is by far the better wrestler and his BJJ is underrated. I wouldnt be surprised to see him plant Thiago on his back a couple times. I believe his movement and technique are going to cause Thiago a lot of problems. Silva does have the power advantage, but his striking is very straight forward and aggressive. He doesn't use a lot of footwork and he leaves himself open. I just don't see many areas where Thiago has a definitive advantage that can win him the fight, other than a looping KO which Vera isnt very susceptable to.
I couldnt agree more with everything you said. You didnt even touch on his suspect cardio. from the Dwarl fight, where I thought T. Silva was going to drop dead from exaustion in the 2nd, to Rashad some three years(?) later, I think it is safe to say this wil always be an issue for him. I got some +155 for much larger than my standard play. My only question now is do I peel some back and take a better number overall as this was my original plan, but almost want to leave it out there.
I think Hioki is one of, if not the best grappler at 145lb. If he fights smart and follows the gameplan, I think he has a great chance for the upset. He needs to work to the clinch and use some of those trips that he has to get this to the mat. I believe his reach and size will allow him to do this without exposing himself to much to the KO. The guy is unbelievable on the ground. His top game and specifically, his guard passing are impeccable. Couple that with his size for a 145lb and he's a beast on the ground. The question for me is whether he will fight smart, or do what he has seemed to do in a couple of fights and get goaded into fighting his opponents fight. Although his chin is pretty solid, his standup is lacking and he stands far too straight. Even with the reach advantage, I don't like his chances if he chooses to exchange. It could be a short night for him. One thing he does have going for him is that Sandro loves to throw that uppercut and it is one of his best weapons - Hioki's height advantage should keep him out of danger from it.
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I think your gonna talk me off this one. I guess -200 is too steep to lay against such a talented fighter on his own turf. I am always good to lose one large fav per Sengoku or DREAM event, maybe this was gonna be it.
Yeah I just think the price is much too high for Sandro. I figured he'd come in closer to -160-170ish for this one. His TDD is pretty solid but Hioki's size is hard to overcome. I also wouldnt be surprised to see Sandro finish this one off late. Hioki's other main issue is gassing late. He pushes such a hard pace when working on the ground that he overexerts himself and starts to really slow down late. It should be a great fight to watch - its prolly the fight I'm most excited for this weekend other than Gomi/Guida.Last edited by Eccocide; 12-29-10, 07:08 PM.Comment -
Against my better judgement, I'm adding a couple plays for Sengoku. I like Nakamura at this price, even though the line is moving against him. And I didn't get Hioki at +190ish as I wanted but I still put in a small play on him. GL, its a long night ahead!
Adding:
K-Taro (+105) 1.5 units to win 1.575 units
Hioki (+175) 1 unit to win 1.75 unitsComment -
ecco, no small fun bet on sengoku? i found me a lil parlay $155 to win $200. where u at?Guess who's stackin' gold and silver? THIS GUYComment -
Cool man. I tailed ddream1 and unasail on pregame and went with Herman/Kanehara parlay.
What do you think about aoki having to go 1st rd K-1 Rules with the mma gloves on? Think he will make it thru the round and get a sub in rd 2?Guess who's stackin' gold and silver? THIS GUYComment -
Just as I write that I see that Chonan has been KO'd after 9 seconds!
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Sengoku Soul of Fight Results: +3.325 units
Both dogs hit and the first 2 legs of the parlay hit. Just need Tokoro to take care of business tonight to cash that. I looked for a stream, couldnt find anything so I went to bed lol. Gunna try to find the event now and watch it. It sounds like Hioki fought a great fight and followed the gameplan to a tee!Comment -
I honestly dont know what to expect from that fight. I could almost see it going as an exhibition with neither guy going super hard. Only in Japan would you get something like this lol.
thnx! I was surprised by the movement. Looks like if I woulda stayed up a little later I could have got K-Taro at +125 and Hioki at +195. Oh well.
Thx bud, I hope Dynamite goes as well as Sengoku did.Comment
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