Eccocide's MMA Picks

[Eccocide]

A little late to the Schaub party, but I think its still worth a play. I have one more play in mind other than these two, but Im waiting on a better line.

Adding:

UFC 121:

Schaub (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
Shields/Kampmann goes the distance (-160) 4 units to win 2.5 units

[Eccocide]

BFC 33 Results: +2 units

Alvarez schooled Huerta pretty badly. The ref in the Askren fight was horrible. Nice standup from MOUNT at one point lol.

Oh ya and I was very impressed by Hawn. I had only seen his fight with Shonie Carter and I've been impressed with what I have seen.

[Poppa Catfish]

BFC 33 Results: +2 units


Alvarez schooled Huerta pretty badly. The ref in the Askren fight was horrible. Nice standup from MOUNT at one point lol.

That one had me scurred. I had 3 units on going a full 4 rounds, and I could just picture a knock out after that BS stand up, thankfully Ben prevailed in dominating fashion.

[lasker]

BFC 33 Results: +2 units Alvarez schooled Huerta pretty badly. The ref in the Askren fight was horrible. Nice standup from MOUNT at one point lol.

Good job Ecco

I can't stand it when refs like that officiate a fight involving a dominating wrestler who relies heavily on his offensive wrestling. If a guy can get you down, it's your job to fight off your back or get back up, I don't care how "boring" people think it is. And at the very least, you'd expect they'd know you don't stand up a fight when one guy has mount. Insane.

[Poppa Catfish]

Good job Ecco

I can't stand it when refs like that officiate a fight involving a dominating wrestler who relies heavily on his offensive wrestling. If a guy can get you down, it's your job to fight off your back or get back up, I don't care how "boring" people think it is. And at the very least, you'd expect they'd know you don't stand up a fight when one guy has mount. Insane.

I agree with this the big time. If the Ravens are driving down the field using boring 3 yard a carry runs, the ref doesn't restart them back at the 20 and tell them to start passing. Don't like being controlled? Then fence walk, sweep, hip out, ******* do something!

As a person who wanted the fight to go to the distance, due to my bet, I was pretty much shocked and simultaneously scared at how quickly Ben could pass to mount. The guy has amazing jiu jitsu and wrestling, the whole learning how to finish will come with time.

[jacktheknife]

UFC 121:

Schaub (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units

Wow, guess one plus about being relegated to Casinos is that I can still get this one for +160. You really think it's worth it?

[lasker]

Adding: UFC 121: Schaub (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units Shields/Kampmann goes the distance (-160) 4 units to win 2.5 units

I'm on both of these plays. Boosts my confidence to see you backing Schaub as well.

[Eccocide]

Good job Ecco

I can't stand it when refs like that officiate a fight involving a dominating wrestler who relies heavily on his offensive wrestling. If a guy can get you down, it's your job to fight off your back or get back up, I don't care how "boring" people think it is. And at the very least, you'd expect they'd know you don't stand up a fight when one guy has mount. Insane.

I agree with this the big time. If the Ravens are driving down the field using boring 3 yard a carry runs, the ref doesn't restart them back at the 20 and tell them to start passing. Don't like being controlled? Then fence walk, sweep, hip out, ******* do something!

As a person who wanted the fight to go to the distance, due to my bet, I was pretty much shocked and simultaneously scared at how quickly Ben could pass to mount. The guy has amazing jiu jitsu and wrestling, the whole learning how to finish will come with time.

I agree with both of you. Sometimes I wonder if these refs get any training at all or if they just pass some kind of written test. They clearly dont understand dominant positions or grappling.

Wow, guess one plus about being relegated to Casinos is that I can still get this one for +160. You really think it's worth it?

Dont have time for much of a writeup now, but most of Gonzaga's takedowns have come from trips and sweeps from his leg kicks when guys are off balance. He doesn't pose much of a threat from a wrestling standpoint. I think Schaub can keep the fight standing, keep his hand high to avoid the high kick and counter using his speed.

I'm on both of these plays. Boosts my confidence to see you backing Schaub as well.

GL! Lets hope they cash.

[Eccocide]

One last add. Got the line around where I wanted it. This should be it for the card other than maybe a FOTN prop once they are released.

Adding:

UFC 121:

Velasquez/Lesnar Stars Round 3 (-104) 2.08 units to win 2 units


UFC 121 Recap:

Ortiz (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Ortiz by Decision (+253) 0.5 units to win 1.265 units
Guymon (+130) 1.5 units to win 1.95 units
Camozzi (+125) 1.5 units to win 1.875 units
Schaub (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
Shields/Kampmann goes the distance (-160) 4 units to win 2.5 units
Velasquez/Lesnar Stars Round 3 (-104) 2.08 units to win 2 units

[lasker]

BOL Ecco (aside from the Tito bets )

You think the juice is too high to bet on Madsen? It seems to me Yvel is a tailor-made opponent for him to beat. If Madsen doesn't get knocked out in the first minute or two, I would think he has this fight in the bag.

[jacktheknife]

Put a U on Jensen for +190. Starting to wish i put it on Yvel.

[Eccocide]

BOL Ecco (aside from the Tito bets )

You think the juice is too high to bet on Madsen? It seems to me Yvel is a tailor-made opponent for him to beat. If Madsen doesn't get knocked out in the first minute or two, I would think he has this fight in the bag.

I never lay anything above -175ish unless its in a parlay. I think the line is about right. Madsen should lay and pray this to a decision win, but if he tries to stand at all like he did in his last fight, Yvel can end it quickly.

[Eccocide]

One last add. Got the line around where I wanted it. This should be it for the card other than maybe a FOTN prop once they are released.

Adding:

UFC 121:

Velasquez/Lesnar Stars Round 3 (-104) 2.08 units to win 2 units


UFC 121 Recap:

Ortiz (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Ortiz by Decision (+253) 0.5 units to win 1.265 units
Guymon (+130) 1.5 units to win 1.95 units
Camozzi (+125) 1.5 units to win 1.875 units
Schaub (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
Shields/Kampmann goes the distance (-160) 4 units to win 2.5 units
Velasquez/Lesnar Stars Round 3 (-104) 2.08 units to win 2 units

Adding:

Ortiz (+171) 1 unit to win 1.71 units

You can hate me now, but I wont stop now.......

[Shagdogy]

3 units altogether on Ortiz... you got balls man. I like it. My eggs are in the Schaub basket at the moment. Gotta wait until NCAA football plays out tomorrow to see if I'm making anymore plays on 121. Good luck!

[ojs69]

One last add. Got the line around where I wanted it. This should be it for the card other than maybe a FOTN prop once they are released.

Adding:

UFC 121:

Velasquez/Lesnar Stars Round 3 (-104) 2.08 units to win 2 units


UFC 121 Recap:

Ortiz (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Ortiz by Decision (+253) 0.5 units to win 1.265 units
Guymon (+130) 1.5 units to win 1.95 units
Camozzi (+125) 1.5 units to win 1.875 units
Schaub (+134) 1.5 units to win 2.01 units
Shields/Kampmann goes the distance (-160) 4 units to win 2.5 units
Velasquez/Lesnar Stars Round 3 (-104) 2.08 units to win 2 units

many ufc fighters are saying ortiz is a shot fighter

[stefan084]

i don't understand why everyone is on Schaub. i've never seen him do much of anything, did i miss one of his fights or something? i'm being serious as i was going to put some money on gonzaga but now i'm not as confident---any help is appreciated

[Poppa Catfish]

I never lay anything above -175ish unless its in a parlay. I think the line is about right. Madsen should lay and pray this to a decision win, but if he tries to stand at all like he did in his last fight, Yvel can end it quickly.

I'm on Madsen and Yvel go the distance at +285

[Eccocide]

I do like it but I'm going to wait. I think money more money is going to come in on the under. I'm actually prolly going to take Starts Round 3 rather than over 2.5 rounds. I like not having to worry about that extra 2:30 lol.



Yea, I got one parlay tonight. Seems a little squarish but I feel pretty confident in both guys.

BFC 33:

Alvarez/Askren 2-fight parlay (-117) 2.34 units to win 2 units


I may sprinkle on Voelker tomorrow but I need to watch their first fight again.

I shoulda followed through with the play on Voelker but I was at a bachelor party and forgot about it lol.

[Eccocide]

3 units altogether on Ortiz... you got balls man. I like it. My eggs are in the Schaub basket at the moment. Gotta wait until NCAA football plays out tomorrow to see if I'm making anymore plays on 121. Good luck!

GL to you too my friend. Should be a great night of fights!

many ufc fighters are saying ortiz is a shot fighter

Everyone is against Ortiz on this fight. Anaylsts, the public, fighters, consensus, etc, etc, etc. This makes me that much more confident. So many ppl buy into what others are saying, what they want to hear and what the hope in the hearts the outcome will be. IMO, the key to long term success is objectiveness. I hate Ortiz, but he shouldn't be close to a 2-1 dog to Matt Hamill. If I lose and everyone else wins, Its all good to me. I did what I needed to do for this fight by watching a lot of footage and studying and if it doesnt go my way, I would still do it again based on the way I cap.

i don't understand why everyone is on Schaub. i've never seen him do much of anything, did i miss one of his fights or something? i'm being serious as i was going to put some money on gonzaga but now i'm not as confident---any help is appreciated

I won't try to talk you out of a Gonzaga bet. Schaub isnt a big bet for me, just an average sized one. If you havent gotten a chance, watch his last 2 fights vs. Gormley and Tuch. His hand speed is levels above Gonzaga's and his footwork is always improving. He was taken down on TUF, but he actually had a pretty decent sprawl that he demonstrated in the Madsen and Rogers fights. He also does well to avoid damage when on the bottom and does a good job at finding openings to get back to the feet. Some ppl are saying "Gonzaga was able to take Carwin down, Schaub will be easy". He only took Carwin down after he rocked him twice on the feet. Carwin was then able to get up without much hassle. Carwin is much slower than Schaub and I don't see Brendan getting hit as flush as Shane did in the standup. He circles well and does a great job at closing the distance once he sense weakness in his opponent. Gonzaga has 2 key weapons on the feet - his high kick and his inside leg kick. Both of these leave him very open to counter punching as shown in the JDS fight. The blueprint is there for Schaub - he just has to follow it.

I'm on Madsen and Yvel go the distance at +285

I like this bet - very good value! I don't see Madsen finishing it unless the ref gets over-anxious.

[Vaughany]

GL tonight Ecco, let's hope Camozzi get's off to a solid start tonight...will be really surprised if Dong takes this one!

[sundin4prez]

i like your picks.... im on lesnar,sheilds,tito,sanchez and yang

[jacktheknife]

Alright it took me until the last minute and any number of lost percentages but I landed on a final ticket:

Lesnar for 2u at -145
Tito for 1u at +145
Shaub for 1u at +130
Jensen for 1u at +190
Camozzi for 1.4u at -105

Might throw another half or so on Shaub or Lesnar when I hit the joint to watch the main.

What's the word on Shields? How ****** up is he, really?

[Eccocide]

GL tonight Ecco, let's hope Camozzi get's off to a solid start tonight...will be really surprised if Dong takes this one!

Closer than I expected but Camozzi takes the decision! Hopefully Guymon can do the same for me lol.

i like your picks.... im on lesnar,sheilds,tito,sanchez and yang

GL tonight. I think Lesnar gets it done.

Alright it took me until the last minute and any number of lost percentages but I landed on a final ticket:

Lesnar for 2u at -145
Tito for 1u at +145
Shaub for 1u at +130
Jensen for 1u at +190
Camozzi for 1.4u at -105

Might throw another half or so on Shaub or Lesnar when I hit the joint to watch the main.

What's the word on Shields? How ****** up is he, really?

Conflicting reports. I watched his open workout and some training clips I saw of him from a week or so ago and he looked pretty good. I just don't the fact that he looked so dehydrated at the weigh-ins. He might not have expected it to be so tough getting back down to 170 after a couple fights at 185.

[Eccocide]

Im out for the night. GL to everyone. I'll be expecting some I told you so's when I get in later if Tito gets pounded .

[timmyboy34243]

scares me a little that shields had to lose 13 pounds to make weight at the end....

[jacktheknife]

Managed to get .6 on Sanchez at the last minute. 3-3 and down just a little under a U for the night.


Camozzi, Shaub, and Sanchez. Who'd have thought?

[Eccocide]

Pretty uneventful night for me, basically breaking even. GJ Hamill backers! I thought Tito had some openings in the first 1.5 rounds where he had Hamill off balance and against the cage but for whatever reason he wouldn't commit. After that, he went all gassy gassy and didnt defend the takedowns. I think its time to give up fighting and take care of your malnourished wife Tito!

UFC 121 Results: -0.19 units

MMA YTD: +42.71 units


Some quick thoughts on the card itself.

-Schaub almost made me shit myself twice going for takedowns. Dude you are clearly winning the fight, no need to shoot in on a guy who's ground game is levels above yours! 20 more seconds in that last round and Gongaza was about to take the back and do bad things.

-30-26 Sanchez?? haha where did they get this judge! Diego must've mean-mugged him watching into the cage, shooting fear into his heart. But good performance by Diego. He looked much better after returning to Jackson's. I still think he should be in the LW division though.

-I thought Kampmann won 29-28. I really don't think Shields should get a title shot off that performance. I think they should do Fitch/Shields for the #1 spot.

-I didn't expect how frantic Brock would be right from the sound of the bell. I pretty much knew at that point my bet to start round 3 wasn't gunna happen lol. Impressive performance from Cain. Him vs. JDS will be quite a matchup. The line will be interesting as well!

[Poppa Catfish]

-Schaub almost made me shit myself twice going for takedowns. Dude you are clearly winning the fight, no need to shoot in on a guy who's ground game is levels above yours! 20 more seconds in that last round and Gongaza was about to take the back and do bad things.

THIS! That part made absolutely no sense, maybe he thought the fight was too easy and he wanted to challenge himself with an elite BJJ player.

[Eccocide]

UFC 122:

Okami (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units

[JediMind87]

UFC 122:

Okami (+145) 1.5 units to win 2.175 units

I like this pick, Also thinking bout putting some $ on Okami.I think he wins this fight by way of takedowns.

[Eccocide]

I like this pick, Also thinking bout putting some $ on Okami.I think he wins this fight by way of takedowns.

I got an absolutelty dreadful line. Shoulda waited to see what 5dimes and Pinny would open at. He's available at +180 right now at Pinny for an opener.

[illmatick]

good play, wrong fighter is favored imo

Okami's going to be one of my largest wagers of the year.

[jacktheknife]

Nothing on Zikic? I'll never be able to bet on that fight in a million years but somebody should make some money off of a line like that.

[Pratik]

I got an absolutelty dreadful line. Shoulda waited to see what 5dimes and Pinny would open at. He's available at +180 right now at Pinny for an opener.

oh shoot yeah then if its that high i think hes worth a play. Although i dunno about him taking Marquart down everytime hes not sonnen.

[JediMind87]

good play, wrong fighter is favored imo

Okami's going to be one of my largest wagers of the year.

Are we going to see a write-up on this Ill?