Eccocide's MMA Picks

[Eccocide]

Gd night Ecco! My poor Strikeforce run has ended!

lol, mine as well!

Adding:

Diaz/Noons Over 2.5 rounds (-126) 2.52 units to win 2 units

Strikeforce:

Josh Thomson (-136) 2.72 units to win 2 units

Strikeforce Results: 2-0 +4 units

MMA YTD: +43.65 units

[overthecut]

excellent !! thanks and congrats !!

[PorkyPig]

nice, keep it up

[Eccocide]

Thanks guys. Let's do it again next weekend.

[Vaughany]

Thanks guys. Let's do it again next weekend.

When do you think Pinnacle will bring out the rest of 120 lines Ecco? Desperately dont wanna miss the openers for Patrick, Vincius Quieroz, Fisher and Maldonado.

[Eccocide]

Hmmm I'm not sure. They used to be really slow at getting undercards out - like way after other sites would open them up. But for the past month or so they have been one of the first to get them out so who knows. If I had to make a guess I'd say Tuesday night or sometime Wednesday. But I really have no idea lol.

[Eccocide]

UFC 120:

Travis Browne (+169) 1 unit to win 1.69 units

I may add more on this depending where the line goes. I may also hedge with Kongo in the 3rd round if that becomes available.

[Shagdogy]

Are you feeling Browne by TKO like I am Ecco? My thoughts here are that Kongo's chin has just been dying to let him down lately, and Browne will certainly test it. Do you think Browne could win this fight any way other than TKO/KO?

[Vaughany]

UFC 120:

Travis Browne (+169) 1 unit to win 1.69 units

I may add more on this depending where the line goes. I may also hedge with Kongo in the 3rd round if that becomes available.

Im thinking of putting a unit on Browne as well, gone down to +163 now on Pinnacle - not a great difference but Im gonna wait and see if I can get him at +170 later in the week, also want to wait and see what Paddypower's odds are for Browne by TKO/KO. Browne is going to have a 20lb (approximate) size advantage, he has better BJJ (purple belt) and apparently he is in great shape having had a solid training camp where he has been showing great takedown defence, sweeps and reverses in training against the likes of Vera, Phil Davies and Junior at Alliance. Never know what to expect from Kongo and this will be the first time that Browne has fought abroad so the jet lag may be a factor (although shouldnt be and hopefully wont be significant).

[Eccocide]

Are you feeling Browne by TKO like I am Ecco? My thoughts here are that Kongo's chin has just been dying to let him down lately, and Browne will certainly test it. Do you think Browne could win this fight any way other than TKO/KO?

I feel he has a good chance at the TKO as Kongo's striking defense isn't that great and he leaves himself exposed a lot. Browne hits very hard and is extremely aggressive so I think he has a solid chance in the first half of the fight. However after that, I expect him to gas out as he puts a lot of energy into most of his shots and he looked bad in his third round against Mychal Clark. He could still win by decision but the odds are it will most likely be a TKO if he wins. As well, he does get sloppy with his punches and is susceptable to the counter and thats why I only made it a 1 unit play for now.

Im thinking of putting a unit on Browne as well, gone down to +163 now on Pinnacle - not a great difference but Im gonna wait and see if I can get him at +170 later in the week, also want to wait and see what Paddypower's odds are for Browne by TKO/KO. Browne is going to have a 20lb (approximate) size advantage, he has better BJJ (purple belt) and apparently he is in great shape having had a solid training camp where he has been showing great takedown defence, sweeps and reverses in training against the likes of Vera, Phil Davies and Junior at Alliance. Never know what to expect from Kongo and this will be the first time that Browne has fought abroad so the jet lag may be a factor (although shouldnt be and hopefully wont be significant).

Lets hope he's worked on pacing himself slightly as well! lol.

Hmmm I'm not sure. They used to be really slow at getting undercards out - like way after other sites would open them up. But for the past month or so they have been one of the first to get them out so who knows. If I had to make a guess I'd say Tuesday night or sometime Wednesday. But I really have no idea lol.

Well I was right about Tuesday night it seems, yet I still happened to miss the openers lol. Adding 1 fight for now, working on a couple more.

Adding:

UFC 120:

Stanislav Nedkov (+155) 1.75 units to win 2.7125 units

[Eccocide]

Adding one more for now. Still got some work to do on some others.

Adding:

Mark Holst (+170) 1.25 units to win 2.125 units

UFC 120 Recap (so far):

Yoshihiro Akiyama (+200) 2 units to win 4 units
Travis Browne (+169) 1 unit to win 1.69 units
Stanislav Nedkov (+155) 1.75 units to win 2.7125 units
Mark Holst (+170) 1.25 units to win 2.125 units

[Vaughany]

I feel he has a good chance at the TKO as Kongo's striking defense isn't that great and he leaves himself exposed a lot. Browne hits very hard and is extremely aggressive so I think he has a solid chance in the first half of the fight. However after that, I expect him to gas out as he puts a lot of energy into most of his shots and he looked bad in his third round against Mychal Clark. He could still win by decision but the odds are it will most likely be a TKO if he wins. As well, he does get sloppy with his punches and is susceptable to the counter and thats why I only made it a 1 unit play for now.



Lets hope he's worked on pacing himself slightly as well! lol.



Well I was right about Tuesday night it seems, yet I still happened to miss the openers lol. Adding 1 fight for now, working on a couple more.

Adding:

UFC 120:

Stanislav Nedkov (+155) 1.75 units to win 2.7125 units

Ye spot on with your guess! They came out just before I went to bed so managed to get Vinicius Kappke at
-120 (now at -146 I think). In hindsight, I probably should of put a unit on Holst wen he was at +205, the odds should be a lot closer to evens IMO, Sass hasnt beaten anybody significant, there's just a lot of hype about his "Sassiangle" because he submitted 7 dudes in a row with a triangle, but Holst is also a decent purple-belt himself! On the otherhand he could be the next Terry Etim (looks quite similar and is a Scouse)!

[Eccocide]

Ye spot on with your guess! They came out just before I went to bed so managed to get Vinicius Kappke at
-120 (now at -146 I think). In hindsight, I probably should of put a unit on Holst wen he was at +205, the odds should be a lot closer to evens IMO, Sass hasnt beaten anybody significant, there's just a lot of hype about his "Sassiangle" because he submitted 7 dudes in a row with a triangle, but Holst is also a decent purple-belt himself! On the otherhand he could be the next Terry Etim (looks quite similar and is a Scouse)!

Holst is a Muay Thai beast and from what I've seen of Sass, his wrestling and striking are lacking quite a bit. He doesn't set up takedowns with his striking and often ends up on the ground because the opponent is the one who took him down. Holst has been specifically working on TDD in order to keep this fight standing. If he can keep it on the feet, he will easily win this one IMO.

Adding:

UFC 120:

Patrick/Bisping-Akiyama Starts Round two 2-fight parlay (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units

[Vaughany]

Holst is a Muay Thai beast and from what I've seen of Sass, his wrestling and striking are lacking quite a bit. He doesn't set up takedowns with his striking and often ends up on the ground because the opponent is the one who took him down. Holst has been specifically working on TDD in order to keep this fight standing. If he can keep it on the feet, he will easily win this one IMO.

Adding:

UFC 120:

Patrick/Bisping-Akiyama Starts Round two 2-fight parlay (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units

Yee his striking should be significantly better. Like that 2fight parlay aswell, thers no way Bisping Akiyama ends in first round IMO.

[Eccocide]

TUF 12 Finale:

Rick Story (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units

[Vaughany]

TUF 12 Finale:

Rick Story (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units

Decent value in that I think, Hendricks will have wrestling advantage no doubt (Story couldnt deal with Hathaway's wrestling and wasnt dominant over Osipzcak) but still think Story should be closer to +200 to +225 range, shall consider a play if similar odds come out on pinnacle. Im also tempted by the Grove at +300 odds over Maia, will probly put a unit on Da Spyder if it comes out at +300 on Pinnacle.

[lasker]

TUF 12 Finale: Rick Story (+285) 2 units to win 5.7 units

I like this play very much as well.

[ddream1]

just touched story aswell, that line is a gift. i have story as a slight underdog. love that patrick-bis/aka 2r parlay alot.

[Eccocide]

Ya I think there's big value in Story at those odds. I was going to play him at anything over +165 so to get him at this price was a gift for me.

I've been going back and forth on this fight and I should probably stay away but my head and gut keep telling me that this is the right side so I'm going to go ahead and add it.

UFC 120:

Gustafsson (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units

[Eccocide]

Nedkov bet cancelled with Cantwell pulling out. I may add one more bet closer to the start of the main card but this is it for now.

UFC 120 Recap:

Yoshihiro Akiyama (+200) 2 units to win 4 units
Travis Browne (+169) 1 unit to win 1.69 units
Mark Holst (+170) 1.25 units to win 2.125 units
Patrick/Bisping-Akiyama Starts Round two 2-fight parlay (-120) 3 units to win 2.5 units
Gustafsson (-109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units

GL tomorrow everyone.

[Shagdogy]

I'm on Browne and Holst with you. I liked your parlay, but I did it with Hardy rather than Patrick. Bis/Aki HAS to start round 2. Don't know what to make of the Gustavsson fight, though I would probably lean towards Diabate. Like him for some reason. Good luck though.

[Eccocide]

I'm on Browne and Holst with you. I liked your parlay, but I did it with Hardy rather than Patrick. Bis/Aki HAS to start round 2. Don't know what to make of the Gustavsson fight, though I would probably lean towards Diabate. Like him for some reason. Good luck though.

Ya the Gustafsson fight is a close one to call. I just feel that Gustafsson's wrestling could be a deciding factor. I like what I've been hearing out of his camp. I really wanted to stay away from the Hardy/Condit fight as I think it will be very close, but the line on Hardy by Decision is up to +170 and I think thats some solid value. Im gunna wait to see how some of my bets go before I make a final decision. GL today Shag!

[Eccocide]

Small profit after the 2 undercard bets. Adding 2 more to the card.

Hardy by decision (+170) 1.5 units to win 2.55 units
Hathaway -3.5 and Bisping/Akiyama starts round 3 2-fight parlay 2 units to win 2.125 units

[jacktheknife]

Small profit after the 2 undercard bets. Adding 2 more to the card.

Hardy by decision (+170) 1.5 units to win 2.55 units
Hathaway -3.5 and Bisping/Akiyama starts round 3 2-fight parlay 2 units to win 2.125 units

Ouch, so not the way to go in so many ways.

Final tally for me: one win, one loss and one draw. Total profit: one dollar.

[Plu$Money]

Why would you even come here and post that nonsense.. Look at his record before you go saying shit.. Take your dollar somewhere else

[jacktheknife]

Why would you even come here and post that nonsense.. Look at his record before you go saying shit.. Take your dollar somewhere else

So, sympathy and self-parody givin' you the runs, huh? My first guess is the night didn't go so well for you. Can't blame yourself, this was a weird-ass card to cap.

[Eccocide]

lol no worries. I can take it. My plan was to stay away from those 2 fights but I went against that and it put me in the negative for the event. It is what it is, and the losses werent much. But DAMN what a KO by Condit! He's one of my fav fighters so even though he cost me some units, I was happy for him. The Hathaway fight was totally unexpected for me. Pyle has never looked as impressive in the grappling and clinch departments. Anyway, would have been a slightly positive night if it wasn't for the late adds. Time to move on to UFC 121.

UFC 120 Results: -2.75 units

MMA YTD: +40.9 units

[rocky mattioli]

"Time to move on to UFC 121."

and what an interesting card it is....haven`t looked real hard,yet,but there are some interesting match-ups,for sure....

anxious to get some opinions...

i find the hamill/ortiz opener(hamill-165) very interesting.....almost seems like someone is chumming for ortiz action....

what do you think,eccocide?....i`m not sure that ortiz has that slick,precise(or awkward) striking or the cardio that gives hamill trouble(ala jon jones/rich franklin or jardine).....

who is the better wrestler,if it hits the ground?....

very interiguing fight...

[jacktheknife]

That fight scares me the kind of same way the Hardy/Condit one did. Tito keeps really hanging with people that the rankings say he shouldn't. The odds are playing off the idea that Tito's a dinosaur, but standing next to a comer like Hamill I can't decide if he isn't.

[Eccocide]

I have a bunch of tape to watch, but I won't be laying anything on Hamill at the price. I actually lean Tito, but its a very early lean and is based more on external factors than the fight itself. This is a big fight for Tito and if he wants to stay relevant he needs this win desperately. I think it also throws a wrinkle that Hamill trained with Tito at Team Punishment for a while - Tito may have a little insight into some things in Hamills game that he can take advantage of. I will say that I was surprised that the line opened up where it did. Hamill IMO was less than impressive in his last fight with Jardine. However, Tito is a fighter the public loves to bet against. The line has moved against him in all of his last 5 fights and I think the books may not have wanted to set themselves up for a lot of early money coming in on a low line on Hamill.

[lasker]

I don't like to be on the other side of your picks or leans, but I'm definitely on the other side for this one. As I wrote in my blog a while back, I think there's still great value on Hamill. I'm surprised the line hasn't moved more in Hamill's favor. I just don't see anything Tito can do to hurt him. Hamill is clearly the better wrestler IMO, at least when it comes to takedown defense. He has more power in his punches and kicks... really the only way I see him losing this fight is if he gasses in the third, but anyway by then I fully expect him to be two rounds up and there's no way Tito finishes him.

I doubt Hamill will try to take Tito down much or at all (through he probably could and should), but Tito won't take him down either. On the feet I just think Hamill is the more dangerous fighter, even if he's not very technical. Tito is done, in my opinion. He hasn't beaten anyone not named Ken Shamrock since 1673 BCE. Hamill's no world beater, but he's a respectable LHW and one doesn't have to be a world-beater to beat Tito at this stage.

[Eccocide]

I won't comment much on the fight until I watch the tape, but I dont think the wrestling advantage is that big for Hamill and he never uses his wrestling offensively. I've never really been impressed with his standup and I think his style is extremely slow and predictable. But I could change my mind after watching some more tape. I usually see fights from a different aspect compared to when I watch them live, so my opinions may change a bit!

and for the Condit fans such as myself out there:

[brooks85]

hahah ******* love it, im saving that shit with a quickness

who is that getting out of the car at the end?

[Vaughany]

I won't comment much on the fight until I watch the tape, but I dont think the wrestling advantage is that big for Hamill and he never uses his wrestling offensively. I've never really been impressed with his standup and I think his style is extremely slow and predictable. But I could change my mind after watching some more tape. I usually see fights from a different aspect compared to when I watch them live, so my opinions may change a bit!

and for the Condit fans such as myself out there:

haha yee saw the on the UG earlier, there are some other funny ones like the passport stamped with Hardy's face on page 2!: http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma....1715487&page=1

[lasker]

I won't comment much on the fight until I watch the tape, but I dont think the wrestling advantage is that big for Hamill and he never uses his wrestling offensively. I've never really been impressed with his standup and I think his style is extremely slow and predictable.

I also don't think he'll use his wrestling offensively, and I think he wins regardless, but it's a possibility. I wouldn't say Hamill never uses his wrestling offensively since he did take down three of the four wrestlers he fought (Forbes, Holman, and Andy) with Munoz being the sole exception. He took down two Division I wrestlers, one of whom (Holman) was a Div I national champion. Granted the fights were a while ago, but even in his last fight against Jardine he took him down briefly in rounds 2 and 3 and looked for a few more takedowns that were stuffed. If he scores any takedowns against Ortiz, even briefly, it will be very hard for Ortiz to win a decision, and he's not winning any other way. Just my two cents. I'll wait to read your thoughts after you've reviewed the tape. I should go back and do that myself, since my mind was probably made up too quickly easily as soon as this one was announced.