wow i didn't see that ok that is retarded 
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Nice point deduction Herb. Unreal, just unreal. Thought Jardine won the first and 3rd with the 2nd being close. eyepoke and the cut changed the judges views.Comment -
Adding on McCray. Pinny's line sucked me in for a little more.
McCray (+198) 1 unit to win 1.98 unitsComment -
Im a good fade right now!!
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Adding a parlay for tonight. I wanted to make a play on Jabouin on its own, but going to try for some luck and hit a parlay after a bad run. Bad idea im sure lol.
Grispi/Jabouin/Darabedyan 3-fight parlay 1 unit to win 3.61 units..
WEC 49 Recap:
Kamal Shalorus (+140) 2 units to win 2.8 units
Josh Grispi (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
Will Campuzano (+180) 1 unit to win 1.8 units
Fabiano/Sandro/Barao 3 fight parlay (+128) 2 units to win 2.56 units
Grispi/Jabouin/Darabedyan 3-fight parlay (+361) 1 unit to win 3.61 units..Comment -
wow leben really came through in the cut!Comment -
lol hope so! It seems like im on one of those runs where even if i feel i made the right bet something drastic happens or i get f'ed by the judges. Its gotta turn around at some point! GL man!Comment -
Not betting anything tonight other than what I already bet on Friere. Hopefully we dont see an Asken/Hornbuckle replay.
Adding,
UFC 116:
Chris Leben (+250) 1 unit to win 2.5 units
I will take a chance on Leben after hearing this from Akiyama.
From Akiyama today:
"I am not pleased with the change. There are just ten days left until the contest for me to determine [Chris Leben’s] threats and the time is insufficient to establish a tailored gameplan. Leben is also not as high-profile as [Wanderlei] Silva and that does not help me."
"If there is to be a replacement I was hoping for a big name. I spent one year preparing hard for this fight and this news has come as a big disappointment, my motivation has waned. I do not know yet what will happen. .. In the worst case, I will not take part in the [UFC 116] event. We are working hard to resolve this issue."
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Adding another half unit on Leben. Line is dropping pretty fast at other sites. Still +250 at sportsbook.
Chris Leben (+250) 0.5 units to win 1.25 units.
So in total Chris Leben (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units.Comment -
Ill do the same retarded thing I did last time and add on a guy when the line comes crashing down in a bellator fight. Got screwed with the Curran decision last time and I won't be surprised if it happens again tonight.
Adding:
Freire (-118) 1.475 units to win 1.25 unitsComment -
Unreal. The inconsistency in MMA judging / Reffing makes capping somewhat pointless. The fight should have been stopped in the first. Pitbull pounded Warren with hooks in for almost a full minute. Ref doesnt stop it, Warren has no idea where he is at the end of the round. Whatver, its at least a 10-8 right? pure domination....wait no, they all score it a 10-9. Okay second round, Pitbull winning the first 3 minutes in the standup then Warren gets a takedown and doesnt virtually nothing. None of his punches/elbows get through and pitbull tries for a couple subs. 10-9 for pitbull right? nope, 2 judges give it to Warren for landing a takedown and doin no damage... Last round no doubt goes to Warren.
These Bellator judges have been so bad its unreal.Comment -
Damn Ecco. Bad beat there. That's why I've stayed away from the last two Bellators. Its unf*cking real with them.
And as you mentioned, it's beyond Bellator. Some real nasty judging going on...Comment -
good luck this weekend EccoComment -
Didnt want to bet anything tonight as nothing stood out but I'm bored and want some action lol. These are action bets so im hoping to get some luck and hit one, but with the streak im on im assuming it wont happen! GL tonight.
Strikeforce:
Fedor/Werdum Over 2.5 rounds (+173) 1 unit to win 1.73 units
Fedor by sub (+869) 0.2 units to win 1.74 units
Fedor/Werdum goes the distance & Scott Smith (+1105) 0.3 units to win 3.31 unitsComment -
UFC 116:
Karlos Vemola (-125) 2.19 units to win 1.75 units
Ricardo Romero (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Will be making a play on Roberts to depending on the line movement.Comment -
was thinking about making a small play on leben as well...
appreciate the other selections for this weekend. will look into further.Comment -
These lines are from bookmaker. It's almost always the book to put lines out first. It's very valuable to have an account there as openers are often very soft. Both of these lines have already dipped down to -160ish. 5dimes has them available now as well. They usually wait for the market to settle before they release. Hope this helps.Comment -
How confident are people of Romero beating Petruzelli? Im thinking of putting a big play on him at 4/6? Gonna watch some footage of him in a bit but from what I here he should be superior everywhereComment -
Nice analysis although I don't agree with your picks entirely. Especially the Maia vs Miller pick. Miller is a pretty good fighter but he's not a KO artist. I don't think Miller has any chance of beating Maia unless he can get the KO, and with only 1 KO on his resume I seriously doubt that that will happen. I like Maia via Triangle choke in the 1st or 2nd round.
I agree that Coleman is a good value at +340 but I think Randy's work ethic will be too much for Coleman to keep up with, and the longer the fight goes the worse off Coleman will be. Randy by Unanimous decision.
o yeah . all thet timeComment -
Whats the odds on bookmaker 5dimes etc... for Brown by decision? I got him at +700 on Paddypower! Pretty good value me thinks!Comment -
I like Brown to win this fight. Lytle is a tough tough dude.... but his fights are going to catch up to him soon enough. This could very well be fight of the night.
At the odds, I'll take an underrated Matt at +190 to win. And +700 is great on the distance! I still think Brown won against DHK back at 88 - the judges got it wrong.Comment -
Yee considering putting more on Brown by decision, probly 2 units and thn put 4 units on on Lytle to win so worse case scenario i get stake back from the Brown bet. I cant see Brown beating Lyttle any other way.Comment -
UFC 116 Recap:
Bonnar/Soszynski goes the distance (+120) 2 units to win 2.4 units
Karlos Vemola (-125) 2.19 units to win 1.75 units
Ricardo Romero (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Grove (+145) 1.75 units to win 2.54 units
Tuchscherer (+220) 1 unit to win 2.2 units
Chris Leben (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units.
I bet Tuchsherer at a horrible opening line 2 months ago (as I posted) but other than that I beat the line movement on the rest of the plays. I may still add plays on Roberts and Lesnar, or work one or both into some sort of parlay. Havent decided yet. I put a lot of time into this card so I'm hoping for some positive results. My luck needs to turn around at some point lol.
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Lesnar supposedly starting out southpaw--hint,... takedown coming w/i first 30 seconds of fight (at least takedown attempt)--info as per pre fight press conference
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IMO Madsen only has his wrestling and I dont think he has much of a chance of getting Vemola to the ground and then keeping him there for 3 rounds. My only worry with the fight is Vemola's gas tank. I've watched all of his fights and he's very aggressive and likes to push the pace and finish the fight quickly. Madsen is durable and Vemola has a lot of muscle to feed oxygen to. If he's gassed after the first, Madsen will have a chance to grind out a decision.
As for Romero, I think he's lost his value at -180. I would only use him in a parlay at this point. I do wish I would have went slightly larger at the number i got though. Petruzelli is at a disadvantage everywhere other than speed and maybe boxing. He get's way too aggressive with his kicks though and I see him being put on his back quite often if he comes out the same way he has in his past 5 or so fights.Comment -
Yee -120 was good value, ive got him in one parlay at -150.Comment -
Adding:
Lesnar (-127) 1.905 units to win 1.5 units
Grove (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Daniel Roberts / Not Akiyama in Round 1 2-fight parlay (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
UFC 116 Final Card:
Bonnar/Soszynski goes the distance (+120) 2 units to win 2.4 units
Karlos Vemola (-125) 2.19 units to win 1.75 units
Ricardo Romero (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Kendall Grove (+145) 1.75 units to win 2.54 units & (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Chris Leben (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units.
Brock Lesnar (-127) 1.905 units to win 1.5 units
Daniel Roberts / Not Akiyama in Round 1 2-fight parlay (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Tuchscherer (+220) 1 unit to win 2.2 units
Its a big card for me, but this is probably the most I've prepared for a card in a while. GL to everyone tomorrow.Comment -
FWIW I may buy back on Vemola. He somehow weighed in at 222lb?? He's never been lower than 240lb in any of his fights so either he has recently been sick and lost some body mass or he was juicing oversea's and his weight has come way down now that he is being tested. I don't like to make accusations like that but he looks much different than before. As well, I was going to play Sotiropolous before the lines came out but the line was set way too high for my liking. I may actually go the other way now - Pellegrino is getting a solid price and George looked wretched at the weigh-ins. I'm going to sleep on it and decide tomorrow.Comment
