adding:
UFC 114:
Dan Miller (+155) 1.5 units to win 2.325 units
Working on Writeups now.
UFC 114:
Dan Miller (+155) 1.5 units to win 2.325 units
Working on Writeups now.
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Comment -
UFC 114:
Not sure how much time I will have later in the week so I’m gunna do my write-ups now. I got some good lines and some baaaaad lines on this card. I played Rampage back in February thinking I was getting a solid line and now it has came all the way down to EV, I’m assuming mostly due to ppl weighing his time off too heavily. The Lauzon line went flying upward after the story broke that his training camp bailed on him. You can’t predict these types of things but that’s the way it goes sometimes.
Quinton Jackson (-135) 4 units to win 2.96 units
I’d obviously like to have better odds, but I still feel good about this bet. I think ppl are overrating the feud between the two, assuming they will just come out and brawl because they are so “angry” with each other. Rampage knows how to sell a fight like no other person in the UFC. He’s a lot smarter than ppl give him credit for. He knows what he is doing. He isn’t going to bail on his gameplan and just swing for the fences. He has the strength, power and striking advantage in this fight. His boxing is levels above Rashad’s. The wrestling differential isn’t that big in this fight either. Rashad is a great wrestler but he often telegraphs his takedowns. He’s only hit close to 50% of his takedowns during his time in the UFC – this includes 6 for 15 against Bisping, 2 for 9 against Ortiz and 8 for 16 against an injured Thiago Silva. Rampage has pretty solid takedown defense as he has shown against better grapplers than Rashad. Bustamante, Lindland, Henderson, Arona and Ninja all struggled to get him to the floor, and for the most part he was able to get the fights back to the feet even when he was taken down. I’ve already described this in another thread but Rashad has lost most of the rounds he has fought at 205 in the UFC. He lost the first 2 rounds to Griffin, was losing to Liddell, basically lost to Ortiz and Bisping. He is a notoriously slow starter and this is only a 3 round fight. He does have decent speed and head movement but that can only take you so far. He had a huge speed advantage in the Griffin fight – Forrest strikes and moves like a sloth and was still handling Rashad standing. Rampage’s weakness is defending leg kicks and fighting superior Muay-Thai fighters. These are definitely not Rashads strengths. As long as Rampage stays focused and his ring rust isn’t horrendous, I think this fight is his for the taking.
Don Hyun Kim (+140) 2 units to win 2.8 units
I love the value in this line. I just don’t see how Kim is an underdog in this fight. First he has a huge experience advantage over Amir. Amir’s biggest fight to date was against Phil Baroni….yes the NYBA! He’s 3-1 winning his last 2 fights by decisions against guys who are very 1 dimensional and have horrible gas tanks. He has a solid clinch game but we haven’t seen much of his takedown defense other than when he was getting tossed to the ground by CB Dollaway back on TUF. Kim is probably the best Judoka in his weight class in the world. His grappling is far superior to Sadollah’s and he has a great base on the ground. Oh and I forgot to mention he has major power in his hands, although he hasn’t quite shown it yet in the UFC. His second fight in the UFC was probably his least impressive, but he had the flu in the fight and started to gas midway through it. He showed his potential against Parisyan (that fight shouldn’t have needed to be overturned – he won clear as day) and started to put it all together in his last fight against Grant. Grant is a good grappler in his own right, but Kim dictated the pace, worked for positions the whole fight and was in complete control from start to finish. He showed how easily his Judo translates into takedowns and I see much more of that happening in this fight. I just don’t think Sadollah is ready for a guy of Kim’s well-rounded stature and I’m very thankful to be getting him at + money.
John Hathaway (+235) 2.5 units to win 5.875 units
I may hedge back a little bit on this as the play is a little bigger than I want it to be. Prolly should have took it for a unit less but I got sucked in by the value. Don’t get me wrong, I still love the play, I’m just trying to be a little more judicial with my unit distribution. Same goes for my play on Dan Lauzon, prolly should have been smaller than what I made but I will make those adjustments going forward.
As for this fight, I think its going to be a lot closer than ppl think. Before anyone goes and puts their money on Diego, please watch some of Hathaway’s fights. Although Brits are notoriously known for their poor wrestling, Hathaway is the exception. He’s ridiculously strong for his frame, has great range and a solid base. He displayed this most notably in his fight against Ricky Story who in his own right is a great wrestler. Story is an energizer bunny who is always working, but he had no answers for Hathaway, especially on the ground. One of Diego’s main reasons for moving down in weight was that he couldn’t hang with the bigger wrestlers at 170. After 2 losses to Koscheck and Fitch, he jumped ship to try to be what he couldn’t be at 170 – the biggest and strongest wrestler. For the record, I think this is his proper weight class as he lost all of his power with the move down to 155. But this is a tough introductory fight back to the 170lb division against a guy who doesn’t have that much backing behind him but has quietly proved that he is a force in the division. Diego is a tough dude and has the skills, speed and ability to win this fight no doubt, but I had to bite with a line like this.
Dan Lauzon (+300) 1.5 units to win 4.5 units and Lauzon/Escudero Over 1.5 rounds (-122) 2.44 units to win 2 units
I’d prolly like to drop Lauzon from a 1.5 unit play to about half that with the news that’s been going around for the past week (especially with the crappy line I’m stuck with). I’m not going to get too heavy into the analysis on this fight as I feel a lot of it might go out the window come fight time with all of the emotions flowing. How is Dan going to respond? He could come out totally deflated, mentally exhausted and beaten before the fight even starts. Or he could come in like a man possessed to stick it to his brother and coach who bailed on him a couple weeks out from the fight. I really don’t know what is going to happen. What I do know is that Dan doesn’t deserve to be this big of a dog against Efrain. Efrain is still green to the sport and relies pretty heavily on his wrestling. Dan is well versed in submissions and can be a threat off of his back. I think he has the advantage striking in this fight, although Efrain prolly has the power advantage. The last time we saw Dan was in a loss to Cole Miller. He was looking great in the first round – knocked Cole down twice, was landing uppercuts, bodyshots, overhands, etc etc. Problem is he went full out too early and started to gas. Then he went to take Coles back after he got him to the ground, lost position and Cole landed a beautiful sub. It was silly mistake like rushing to take Cole’s back that cost him that fight. He was winning most of the exchanges other than when they were in the clinch. Cole was able to use his height and knees in those instances, advantages Efrain won’t have. One other thing to note is that these 2 are friends and have trained together in the past. I think this can cause them both to be a little tentative to rush into anything or try to force the pace. I guess most of my arguments lean more heavily to my second bet of this going over 1.5 rounds which is why I still decided to add it even after the news broke out. Overall, I expect it be a close, grinding fight, and I couldn’t pass up Lauzon as this big of a dog, especially when I expected the line to be somewhere around +200 max.
Dan Miller (+155) 1.5 units to win 2.325 units
If anyone has been reading my threads since I’ve been posting, you prolly noticed a similar trend…I like to bet against Michael Bisping. I bet against him in his last 3 fights (in which he has lost 2) and I will be doing it again. I guess I can repeat what I’ve posted with any other of my Bisping fight analyses. Basically it sums up to most of his game being overrated. He has little power, relies heavily on an average jab/sticking and running, hasn’t done much to diversify his striking over the years, and has bad takedowns. Other than that he’s great….Once again I’m surprised to get the guy I wanted at a nice dog price. I don’t see what advantages Bisping has in this fight other than a speedy jab. Miller has excellent jiu-jitsu and grappling and I don’t see him having a problem getting this fight to the ground. PPL point to the fact that Bisping hasn’t been submitted. Well in all honesty, he’s barely been tested in that category. His toughest ground test was against Kang who refused to attempt to do anything once he got it to the ground. Then he did his usual thing and mentally collapsed. Bisping isn’t going to have that kind of luck this time around. Miller knows his back is against the wall coming off 2 losses. This is do or die for his fight career in the UFC. No, he didn’t look good in his last fight against Maia, but he decided to abandon his bread and butter due to Maia’s world class jiu-jitsu. He doesn’t have to worry about that in this fight. I look for him to take a UD or possibly sub Bisping last in the fight when ‘the count’ is desperate because he will be behind on the judges scorecards.
That should be all for this fight card other than a possible hedge parlay on something like Efrain/Sanchez/Cane to get the unit distribution where I want it. I'm on pretty much all of the dogs so hopefully there is some barking come Saturday night. GL to everyone.
UFC 114 Recap:
Quinton Jackson (-135) 4 units to win 2.96 units
Dong Hyun Kim (+140) 2 units to win 2.8 units
John Hathaway (+235) 2.5 units to win 5.875 units
Dan Lauzon (+300) 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Lauzon/Escudero Over 1.5 rounds (-122) 2.44 units to win 2 units
Dan Miller (+155) 1.5 units to win 2.325 unitsComment -
Wow I'm baffled by this line!! More books open at this please!
UFC on Versus 2
Yushin Okami (-145) 2.9 units to win 2 unitsComment -
I made a play on that line as well, and also a big bet on the Joe daddy Gomi line as well, I think Gomi will get walked all over.Comment -
I think Stevenson will prolly win but I'm staying away at the current line.
Adding one more for UFC 114:
Nogueira inside the distance/Not Sadollah Inside the distance (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
Bellator 20:
Eric Schambari (+205) 1 unit to win 2.05 units
I think there is some solid value in this line. The first time these guys fought it was an extremely close fight. I had it as a draw with the second round going to noone but the judges gave it to Baker. Baker has pretty good technical standup, but relies heavily on his legkicks. His stance is very stiff, and I think he will be tentative to throw a lot of kicks in fear of the takedown. Schambari hes excellent submissions and has the strength advantage. He has a lot of power in his hands, and Baker showed that he was worried about that in their first fight as he was very cautious at the beginning of rounds. Schambari is the bigger fighter and will work hard for the takedowns. Baker did a good job in their first fight at stuffing some shots but Schambari was eventually able to put him on his back. He got a little sloppy taking the back at some points which led to reversals which is a problem that he has shown in a couple of his past fights. But he is so strong that he usually can regain the positions as he showed in his fight against Luke Zachrich. Bakers last 2 fights havent been all that impressive to me. He showed very little in his fight vs. Art Santore, a 37 year old with bad standup. He couldnt put him away. Overall, i think Schambari can dictate where this fight goes, and he should be able to control the pace on his way to a victory and avenging his only loss.
I was debating a play on Aaron Rosa as well, but I cant find any video on Villegas. Hard to cap a fight from play-by-plays and fight results...Comment -
nice breakdown ecco, playing him for a unit as wellComment -
Tnx, good luck tonight. Hopefully he can pull it off for us. Would like some good karma going into the weekend lol.Comment -
Ecco--you can get Rampage at -105 at 5 dimes reduced lineComment -
oh--sorryComment -
Love it when a submission specialist under Marc Laimon gets subbed in the first round..
Bellator 20 Results: -1 unitComment -
pitiful... reminded me of wagney fabiano getting triangled in the first round in the wecComment -
Lets hope the weekend is better.
Adding:
UFC 114:
Jesse Forbes (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
SIA has this line while every other book is anywhere from -135 to -160. I'll try to do a writeup tonight if I have a chance.
UFC 114 Recap:
Quinton Jackson (-135) 4 units to win 2.96 units
Dong Hyun Kim (+140) 2 units to win 2.8 units
John Hathaway (+235) 2.5 units to win 5.875 units
Dan Lauzon (+300) 1.5 units to win 4.5 units
Lauzon/Escudero Over 1.5 rounds (-122) 2.44 units to win 2 units
Dan Miller (+155) 1.5 units to win 2.325 units
Nogueira inside the distance/Not Sadollah Inside the distance (-105) 1.575 units to win 1.5 units
Jesse Forbes (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
Big Card for me. Hopefully it won't get ugly!Comment -
Dream 14:
Sakuraba/Hansen 2 Fight Parlay(+110) 1.5 units to win 1.55 unitsComment -
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson is gonna kick some ***** asssComment -
i like page, miller and kim as well.Comment -
see the weigh in video and tell me how focused rampage looks... seems like he gassed by the end of his tiny speech. he's totally wound up from the uncle tom stuff rashad's been sayingI think ppl are overrating the feud between the two, assuming they will just come out and brawl because they are so “angry” with each other. Rampage knows how to sell a fight like no other person in the UFC. He’s a lot smarter than ppl give him credit for. He knows what he is doing.
and now that he left Juanito's years ago his boxing has degenerated from what it became when he got with that camp. Wolfslair is balls for real.Comment -
You are really reaching now eh? lol he looked gassed after the weigh ins hahaha....looked fine to me. I guess BJ is totally unfocused and in horrible shape because he looks like a zombie half the time after the weigh in. A lot of guys dont eat and barely drink prior to a weigh in, of course they are going to be dehydrated to some extent. And can you stop talking about Ibarra like he is some kind of master trainer? The guy ripped off and stole money from a lot of his fighters and has been blackballed by half the MMA community for what he has done - I could care less how good of a boxing coach he is. Its fight night - I guess we will see how it goes down soon enough.Comment -
UFC 114:
Adding 1 more unit on Kim at +110
GL to everyone tonightComment -
fading that hathaway pick... did you see him pull rick story into mount??? i've watched 3 off this kids fight and some of hathaways bjj/grappling videos. Hathaways standup isnt very good and i'd be shocked if he can out scramble sanchez.this fight was made for diego.Comment -
Forgot to post my hedges to get the units where i wanted them for the Hathaway and Lauzon picks. I think if they lose it will be by decisions. A little risky but it is what it is
UFC 114 Hedges:
Sanchez by Decison (+248) .5 units to win 1.24 units
Escudero by Decision (+360) 0.25 units to win 0.9 unitsComment -
Hathaway, Kim, over 1.5 rounds!!
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i was referring to rampage's emotional state.
you ever trained or know any fighters or ppl in the industry? don't believe everything you hear about guys... especially from people like tito and rampage. when tito said juanito stole he got taken to court and i believe he settled.
btw maybe you should have paid the kind of attention i did to rampage cuz your breakdown wasn't very accurate.Comment -
UFC 114 results: +2.03 units
night started off great then went a little south lol. Still hit 2 of my 3 big bets. I got sloppy as usual adding 2 plays late which hurt the profit but it was still a positive night.Comment -
Bellator 22:
Toby Imada (-145) 1.8 units to win 1.25 unitsComment -
your biggest bet is still clearly a horrible one especially reading your analysis. I was never that confident about the sadollah fight and either way he is a bad guy to bet against.
BTW nice pick on miller and lauzon, at least one of them mounted offense for more than 5 seconds.Comment -
Last time I'll respond to you if you are gunna be like this cuz you obviously think you are better than thou. The fact that you have to go into other ppl's threads and bash them because they dont agree with you on fights says a lot about you. Thats not what the forum is for. If you want to troll around, call ppl names and talk shit, go to sherdog. You will fit in a lot better there. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing or questioning someones choices, but to be a total dick about it is something totally different.
As for the fight, how was i so far off in my analysis? I said Rashad had the speed advantage, he did. I said Rampage has decent takedown defense and Rashad only lands 50% of his takedowns. He only landed 3 of 10 in the fight (30%). I said Rashad would be stupid to stand and trade - he agreed and he pulled a Randy and pushed Jackson against the cage most of the fight. I said Rampage had the power advantage - he did and should have finished Rashad but he panicked, missed his shots when Rashad was almost out of it and then got defensive. He was able to get up from the takedowns as I said, except for late in the 3rd after he gassed. Thats the one thing I messed up on was assuming the layoff wouldnt affect him as badly in a 3 round fight. Sure, I was wrong about the outcome, you arent going to win them all. It is what it is. Compare all of that to you saying Amir was a great bet, was good on the ground and wouldnt get out grappled, would wear down Kim in the clinch and would win a UD easily if the fight made it out of the first. You can keep hating all you want, but please do it somewhere else. If you want to have intelligent conversation then im all for it.
And I bet to win 3 units on the fight (he was a favourite) and bet 3 units on a dog. Like any moneyline gambling, they are the same level of confidence. If I would have got Rampage at EV then it would still be to win 3 units.Comment -
UFC 115:
Wiman/Danzig goes the distance (-165) 3.3 units to win 2 units
The damn lines for the rest of the fights need to come out already!! I'm getting tired of leaning...I wanna get playing!Comment -
like the play ecco, I'm getting antsy as well lolComment -
Ya I like this one. Both guys have tremendous heart, but struggle to finish off their opponents. Neither guy has devastating power and both have great sub/ground defense and great chins. I expect a back and forth battle and I think this is the safest way to go with this fight. I thought the line would be closer to -185 so I'm happy with the line I got.
I'll be a sucker and bite on this line at Pinny. If I get cold feet or want to back out I'll hedge with Franklin by decision. I think Chuck has some fight left in him and might use some of that wrestling we know he has been keeping in his back pocket. More in a writeup later this week.
UFC 115:
Chuck Liddell (+138) 1.25 units to win 1.725 unitsComment
