good luck
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best of luckComment -
Played this last night and forgot to post it:
2-fight parlay Jason High/Yushin Okami (-121) 2.42 units to win 2 units.
UFN 21 Recap:
Takanori Gomi (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units
Jorge Rivera (+220) 1.5 units to win 3.3 units
Roy Nelson/Yushin Okami 2-fight Parlay (-165) 3.5 units to win 2.14 units
Jason High/Yushin Okami 2-fight parlay (-121) 2.42 units to win 2 units.
Gunna do some writeups now quickly.Comment -
Not worried about Gomi's sub-defense. Florian is no world beater on the ground. Almost all of his submission wins are by RNC that he sets up through his grappling and top-control. He won't have that advantage in this fight. Gomi's cardio and him getting used to the angles in the octagon worried me if anything.Comment -
UFN 21
Takanori Gomi (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units
As I posted earlier, I played this early thinking the line would dip down the other way – it did for a while but has climbed over the last couple days to +270. A lot of ppl aren’t giving Gomi much of a chance in this fight based on his last couple of performances. Obviously, a 5 round decision over Tony Hervey as well as going 2-2 over his last 4 fights against average competition isn’t going to get anybody to jump on his bandwagon. But Gomi has stated multiple times in the past that he rarely gets motivated for fights when fighting on the smaller stage or against small names. This won’t be the case tonight as he will be making his promotional debut on the biggest stage against a top 5 competitor. Therefore, I didn’t give his most recent performances too much weight when analyzing this fight. First, in the stand-up game Gomi will definitely have the power advantage as well as the boxing edge. Florian has more diverse standup using kicks much more frequently and has the better movement of the two. My guess is that Florians gameplan will be to try to pick and move to frustrate Gomi and get him to move into vulnerable positions for the takedown. IMO, if Gomi can close the distance and get in close on Florian, Kenny will find himself in some trouble. I also think Gomi’s strength and wrestling will be a big factor in this fight. Gomi has solid freestyle wrestling and I don’t think Florian is going to find much success in getting him to the ground. Take away Kenny’s grappling and top-control and you eliminate a lot of his weapons. As for submissions, almost all of Florian’s submission wins are by RNC. He almost always sets this up with his grappling and GnP for the transition to the back. I don’t see him getting top-control in this fight unless Gomi gasses in the 3rd round. This brings me to my biggest concern with Gomi – his gas tank. His cardio has been lacking and he has come into his recent fights looking very soft. Not that it guarantees that he has worked on it, but he looked in incredible shape at the weigh-ins yesterday. If he is in shape and can dictate where the fight takes place I think he has a solid chance at winning. I can’t pass up Gomi at this price.
Jorge Rivera (+220) 1.5 units to win 3.3 units
This is a battle of two guys who are solely known for their standup game and I expect nothing but that in this fight. Comparing the 2 fighters, I don’t see a significant difference in standup ability, especially to justify this price. IMO Rivera has the strength and power advantage as well as a better overall striking game based on his muay-thai. Quarry is the better boxer and has the prolly has the better striking defense of the two. Either way, neither guy seems to come in with much of a gameplan, and even if they do it all falls apart once they get hit in the face. I expect a toe-to-toe war and I’ll go with the guy who can mix in kicks, has the reach advantage and has the better clinch game. Anytime I can get a fight that I believe is close to 50/50 at this type of price is a good gamble for me.
Roy Nelson/Yushin Okami 2-fight parlay (-165) 3.5 units to win 2.14 units
I don’t see many places where Struve can win this fight to be honest. He is known for his ground game and submissions, but in this fight that won’t even be an advantage for him. Nelson is an excellent grappler with great submission defense and top-control (belly control if you will). In the standup game, Struve is just starting to develop. Nelson is no slouch on the feet and has the power to knock Struve to the canvas. Struve hasn’t shown the ability to use his massive reach as depicted in the Buentello fight, and without having that part of his game developed yet he will struggle against a guy like Nelson.
Not much to say about the Okami fight. Yushin is better than Lucio in pretty much every aspect of the game. Okami has the better standup and far superior grappling. He will be hungry coming of his lackluster performance against Sonnen. I expect a bread and butter GnP finish or decision from him.
Jason High/Yushin Okami 2-fight parlay (-121) 2.42 units to win 2 units
High has better wrestling, better jiu-jitsu, better standup and more power. Brenneman’s strength is his wrestling but that isn’t going to be very useful in this fight. He hasn’t fought anyone on High’s level yet, and he hasn’t developed his overall skills enough to be ready for this level of competition. High determines where this fight goes, and I think he controls it for 3 rounds to get the decision.
Gomi/Florian Over 1.5 rounds / Not Dennis Siver inside the distance 2-fight parlay (-101) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
Gunna be quick here. I don’t see Florian/Gomi ending early unless Gomi lands a powershot. Gomi has a great chin and his cardio will be fine in the early rounds. I more or less see this one going the distance or ending in the late 2nd or 3rd round. First round will be a feel-out process.
I think Pearson wins this fight, but by some chance Siver pulls it off it will be by decision. Pearson has the better standup and from what I have seen has a solid chin. He can keep this fight standing and as long as he doesn’t get hit with Siver’s patented spinning-back kick attack then he shouldn’t get finished.
UFN 21 Recap:
Takanori Gomi (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units
Jorge Rivera (+220) 1.5 units to win 3.3 units
Roy Nelson/Yushin Okami 2-fight Parlay (-165) 3.5 units to win 2.14 units
Jason High/Yushin Okami 2-fight parlay (-121) 2.42 units to win 2 units
Gomi/Florian Over 1.5 rounds / Not Dennis Siver inside the distance 2-fight parlay (-101) 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
GL to everyone!Comment -
I'm retarded, jacked up my units: Should be as follows..realize the High fight already started but whatever.
UFN 21 Recap:
Takanori Gomi (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units
Jorge Rivera (+220) 2 units to win 4.2 units <--fixed (posted weeks ago)
Roy Nelson/Yushin Okami 2-fight Parlay (-165) 3.5 units to win 2.14 units
Jason High/Yushin Okami 2-fight parlay (-121) 1.21 units to win 1 units <---fixed
Gomi/Florian Over 1.5 rounds / Not Dennis Siver inside the distance 2-fight parlay (-101) 1.25 units to win 1.25 units <---fixedComment -
Brenneman won as I guessed thru lay and pray! Bad luck fella.Comment -
gl ecco, hopefully you stay hot..Comment -
Okami won TKO....lets hope Nelson and Pearson pull thru!Comment -
Ya I just saw High lost. Figured he would be able to keep it standing or get top control. Miscalculated there.
Thanks Ill, we'll see how it goes.
One last flyer - was looking through the odds and found this longshot gem:
Roy Nelson by Submission (+1482) .1 unit to win 1.482 units
I know Struve has a great ground game but Roy has been known to pull some subs off himself. Hoping for a random Kimura or arm triangle lol....very small play but I couldn't resist.Comment -
Tibau dominated Uno! 2/2 so far!Comment -
lol, could Fitch be next??
nahhhhh!!!!Comment -
LOL! Nice to see Okami do something useful. Maybe training in the US has paid off some.
One other flyer...this is more of a hedge against my Gomi/Florian Over 1.5 rounds. Like i said, I don't see Florian finishing Gomi early but Gomi could do a bullrush and run him over (in my dream world) so I will do a very small hedge on Gomi winning in the first round.
Gomi Wins in the first round (+1725) 0.1 units to win 1.725 units
Ok i need to get off my computer before I keep adding silly prop bets. Shoulda just stuck with my original 3 bets lol.Comment -
I'm really cheering for Gomi. The only 155lb title fight that intrigues me is Penn vs Gomi II. Gomi has to win this for any chance of that fight happening.Comment -
I like the Munoz play also, not many plays available that aren't -500 or more.Comment -
should be a good event for prop bets, hopping for some soft lines on Matt Veach and Rick StoryComment -
Hoping to stay hot, but not really liking anything too much for UFC 112. Was leaning Munoz but the line has slid and I don't want to lay anything over -145. Here's 3 props so far. Waiting for lines on Story, Veach and Madsen.
UFC 112:
BJ Penn Inside the distance (-195) 3.9 units to win 2 units
Dos Anjos/Etim Over 2.5 rounds (-111) 1.67 units to win 1.5 units
Silva/Maia Over 1.5 rounds (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 unitsComment -
Got a few questions about props, what does it mean for props when it says A. Silva starts round 3?
Also, for O/U, if they say under 2 1/2, does that mean the fight has to finish before exactly 12.5 minutes? Or does it mean the fight has to finish by round 2, anything in round 3 is a loss?Last edited by cky312; 04-06-10, 11:34 PM.Comment -
The Madsen line should be interesting, I'm thinking at -180 or better he should be worth a playComment -
If is says starts round 3 that means all the fight has to do is making it through 2 rounds. If it ends anytime after the 2nd round is over, the bet is a win. ie. fight ends in rounds 3, 4 or 5 or goes to a decision 'starts round 3' is still a winner.
For O/U the half round is 2:30 seconds of that round. So for under 2.5 rounds it means the fight has to finish before the 2:30 mark of the 3rd round. Hope this helps.Comment -
Missed the opening lines on the 3 guys I was looking at. Gunna wait on Veach - may use it in a parlay. Sportsbook saved me and put out soft lines on Madsen and Story right now.
UFC 112:
Jon Madsen (-200) 2 units to win 1 unit
Ricky Story (-145) 2.175 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
Decided to put another unit on Madsen so that is:
Jon Madsen (-200) 3 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
One more add.
UFC 112:
Madsen/Veach 2-fight parlay (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
That should do it for UFC 112 unless i find another prop that i like. Its rare for me to be on this many favourites. I am usually a dog player but I got some soft lines on fights where I think the fav was undervalued. I have a bigger card than I expected but hopefully it pans out.
UFC 112 Recap:
BJ Penn Inside the distance (-195) 3.9 units to win 2 units
Dos Anjos/Etim Over 2.5 rounds (-111) 1.67 units to win 1.5 units
Silva/Maia Over 1.5 rounds (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Ricky Story (-145) 2.175 units to win 1.5 units
Jon Madsen (-200) 3 units to win 1.5 units
Madsen/Veach 2-fight parlay (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
I'll try to do some writeups over the next couple days.Comment -
i really like the plays sir. madsen is interesting to me, i want to think turk can pass his striking and maybe grapple, but madsen has good wrestling and can win, the line i found high. great picks, bol!!Comment -
UFC 112:
Dos Anjos/Etim Over 2.5 rounds (-111) 1.67 units to win 1.5 units
I was able to get this prop at a nice price early. It has since moved down to -125. When looking at this fight, I thought it was too close to go with a winner so I went with this prop instead. There are numerous reasons why I like this fight to go over the total. First off, both guys are tough and durable fighters and hard to finish. Dos Anjos has 4 losses – 3 by decision including a fight against Tyson Griffin. His only non-decision loss was a KO loss to Jeremy Stephens in the 3rd round. Both of Etim’s losses were by decision to bigger opponents with better grappling/wrestling. Etim has been known to pull off some slick submissions when put on his back, however Dos Anjos has a great jiu-jitsu base and I find it hard to believe he will get tapped. Etim will have the advantage in the standup due to his speed and length, but he doesn’t have the power to finish a guy with Dos Anjos’s chin. As well, Dos Anjos has shown vast improvement in his last couple fights in the standup game, most notably in the Emerson fight. Finally, if Etim is getting the best of the standup, I think Dos Anjos has the takedowns to put him on his back and control from top position, as this has been Etim’s biggest weakness in his career. Overall, I expect it to be an entertaining fight that most likely will be left in the judges hands.
BJ Penn Inside the distance (-195) 3.9 units to win 2 units
I had to make this play at the given price. BJ has absolutely destroyed his last 5 opponents at LW. No one has come close to posing any threat against him. In this fight, hes going against a game opponent in Frankie Edgar. Edgar’s strengths are most notably his wrestling and boxing. The problem for him is that Penn’s boxing is unparalleled in the LW division and he’s pretty much impossible to take down by anyone in his weightclass. He’s had no problem dominating bigger and stronger wrestlers in Sherk, Stevenson and Sanchez. Throw in the fact that Edgar is also an undersized LW and won’t be able to grind Penn down, and I really don’t see what game plan Edgar can implement where Penn will feel in any danger. I see Penn working his boxing in the standup, using it to get inside on Edgar, then using his dirty boxing to lead to a takedown where Penn will finish it with a vintage RNC somewhere in round 3.
Silva/Maia Over 1.5 rounds (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Looking back, this is probably a bet that I would have wanted to make a little smaller. It’s the one I’m most worried about on the card, reason being that Anderson can most likely finish this at any point as long as the fight stays standing. There are some reasons I went with this bet though. First, this is Anderson’s first fight back coming off of surgery. He hasn’t fought in 8 months and I’d expect his rhythm and timing to be slightly off. Because of this, I don’t feel he will push the pace too much in first round, but instead will be working on getting his timing and range down. Maia is a smart fighter – he won’t make the same mistake he made against Marquardt and move forward with himself exposed. I expect him to be very patient, keep his distance and pick his opportunities to move in looking to clinch and go for a trip or sweep. Overall, I think the first round will be more of a feeling out process unless Maia commits early to getting the takedown. My biggest worry is the first half of the second round. Anderson could really open it up at that point which is where this bet makes me a little nervous. Only time will tell.
Jon Madsen (-200) 3 units to win 1.5 units
Here we have 2 guys with marginal standup who both prefer to fight on the ground. Anytime I can get a matchup like this, I will take the solid wrestler against the average grappler. I think Madsen’s size will be a big factor in this fight. He will be around 25lb heavier than Al-Turk and his takedowns are extremely difficult to stop. Once he gets top position, Al-turk is going to have a hard time moving his big frame. As well, Al-Turk’s submission and grappling game is mostly based on his top control. He doesn’t seem to have much to offer when on his back from what I have seen. Madsen has also been training with Brock Lesnar, which can do nothing but help to improve his wrestling base as well as his GnP. I expect a fairly straight-forward unanimous decision if not a GnP TKO/Ref stoppage.
Madsen/Veach 2-fight parlay (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
I already talked about the Madsen fight so here’s what I think about Veach/Kelly. This is a very bad matchup for Kelly. His only strength is his wrestling and he has nothing for Veach in that category. Veach was able to take down and slam Edgar multiple times in their fight and I don’t expect him to have too much trouble doing the same here. One thing Kelly has going for him is he will be the bigger of the two fighters. He has recently dropped down to LW giving him a decent size advantage against the natural 155’ers but it hasn’t panned out into much success. If Veach chooses to keep the fight standing, I believe he has the advantage there as well. Kelly hasn’t improved his standup much since he first entered the UFC. He has a limited arsenal of attacks and lacks any significant power. I think this will be a pretty one-sided fight with Veach finishing it off late with a TKO stoppage.
Ricky Story (-145) 2.175 units to win 1.5 units
This should be a great fight, a possible FOTN candidate IMO. Story is an excellent wrestler who also happens to have strong submissions. His standup is improving and he has shown that over his last 2 fights. However I fully expect him to take Osipczack to the ground early and often, using his dominant top-game to his advantage. He is constantly changing positions and that makes it difficult for his opponents to find their way out from underneath him. Osipczak is a lanky guy so his reach will cause the most difficulty for Story to get inside for the takedown. As long as Story doesn’t get to carried away with trying to provide an entertaining barn-burner, he should be able to secured the victory.
Thats all I got for now. GL to everyone.
UFC 112 Recap:
BJ Penn Inside the distance (-195) 3.9 units to win 2 units
Dos Anjos/Etim Over 2.5 rounds (-111) 1.67 units to win 1.5 units
Silva/Maia Over 1.5 rounds (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Ricky Story (-145) 2.175 units to win 1.5 units
Jon Madsen (-200) 3 units to win 1.5 units
Madsen/Veach 2-fight parlay (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
Renzo Gracie (+355) 0.5 units to win 1.775 units
Woke up with a weird feeling that Renzo is going to pull something out today. I don't think fight means as much to Hughes as it does to Gracie. I dunno how motivated Hughes is gunna be and he could get sloppy and fall into a guillotine or a sub of some sort. Just a gut feel play here.
Should be it for my card.
UFC 112 Recap:
BJ Penn Inside the distance (-195) 3.9 units to win 2 units
Dos Anjos/Etim Over 2.5 rounds (-111) 1.67 units to win 1.5 units
Silva/Maia Over 1.5 rounds (-135) 2.7 units to win 2 units
Ricky Story (-145) 2.175 units to win 1.5 units
Jon Madsen (-200) 3 units to win 1.5 units
Madsen/Veach 2-fight parlay (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
Renzo Gracie (+355) 0.5 units to win 1.775 unitsComment -
UFC 112 Results:
3-3 -2.84 units
Disappointing night but was due for a losing card, although I didn't drop that much. BJ Penn inside the distance put me in the negative for the card for the most part. Glad I used the prop instead of him in any parlays. Thats why I rarely do large favourites parlays. I had it 48-47 Penn with him winning the first 3 rounds. I must say I was surprised they gave it Edgar but it wasn't the worst decision I have seen. However the judge that had it 50-45 needs to be banned from judging any combat sport again lol. Was quite a dreadful card to watch after the first 2 fights. BJ looked disinterested and Silva was extremely frustrating to watch. Maia held his own and I blame him for anything in that fight.
Will be making plays on Shogun and Stout for UFC 113 but Im going to wait for better lines as I see them both moving against them.Comment
What are you thinking for 112? I really don't have anything. Small on Munoz, but that may be my only bet.
