Figured I'd start keeping a YTD total...
MMA YTD: +15.18 units
MMA YTD: +15.18 units
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UFC 113:
Josh Koscheck (-219) 3.28 units to win 1.5 units
Don't think the line will get much better than this. Pinny has this line 20 cents off everyone else.Comment -
gl eccocide. will be interesting to see if kos fights this to the ground or decides to trade. kos seems to think he is a great striker since before that gsp fight.Comment -
BFC 14:
Toby Imada (-190) 1.9 units to win 1 unit
Waiting on some more movement in the Strikeforce lines.Comment -
Imada should be a lock!Comment -
Thanks guys!....but don't call Imada the "L" word!!! lol.
Strikeforce/BFC 14:
Askren/Henderson 2-Fight Parlay (-165) 5 units to win 3.05 unitsComment -
gunna bite on king mo since pinny has him at +200. Small play for me
Strikeforce:
Lawal (+201) 0.75 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
someone hitting Krause pretty hard at 5 dimes, down to -165
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Ya Ill, that line has been allll over the place. Keeps going up and down. Back to -180 now lol.
Hoff, I love the parlay myself. I actually wanted to put more but I didnt want to get too careless with such a young guy to the game. I don't think Askren has any problems with Thomas tonight, but I didn't want to go too big.
Also adding another 2 fight parlay for BFC. Prolly shouldn't with the weird movement on the Imada fight but gunna do it anyway.
Ricci/Imada 2-fight parlay (+119) 1.5 units to win 1.785 units.
Don't have anytime for writeups for tonight. Here's what I have pending for tonight and Saturday so far.
BFC 14/Strikeforce:
Toby Imada (-190) 1.9 units to win 1 unit
Ricci/Imada 2-fight parlay (+119) 1.5 units to win 1.785 units
Askren/Henderson 2-Fight Parlay (-165) 5 units to win 3.05 units
Lawal (+201) 0.75 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
Thomas seems to have deceptive power, some of his KOs were brutal in the smaller shows, still think he gets dominatedComment -
Well it might turn out to be a bad night lol. Imada went back down to -180 and is now getting steamed to -140.....not looking good.Comment -
good news...quite possibly great news
Bread's largest play is on Kraus +110Comment -
Hahahah too funny ill!
Well I've read and looked around as much as i could - I dont see any reason for the line movement on the fight so im going to bite for some more. This line is too tempting.
Adding:
Imada (-140) 2.1 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
BFC 14 Results:
Toby Imada (-190) 1.9 units to win 1 unit & (-140) 2.1 units to win 1.5 units W
Ricci/Imada 2-fight parlay (+119) 1.5 units to win 1.785 units L
Askren/Henderson 2-Fight Parlay (-165) 5 units to win 3.05 units
+1 unit on the night with Asken carrying forward my 2-fight parlay with Henderson.
MMA YTD: +16.18 units
Strikeforce Pending:
Lawal (+201) 0.75 units to win 1.5 units
Askren/Henderson 2-Fight Parlay (-165) 5 units to win 3.05 unitsComment -
Against almost everyone here lol...but anyway...
Adding:
Strikeforce:
Shinya Aoki (+145) 0.75 units to win 1.0875 unitsComment -
Writeups for Strikeforce tonight...
Askren/Henderson 2-Fight Parlay (-165) 5 units to win 3.05 units
Obviously the Askren fight is over with so i need Hendo to finish off this 2-fight parlay. To me, this one is a pretty straight forward fight. Henderson has pretty much all of the advantages in this fight. First his size - he is cutting from 210 while Shields has stated he walks around at 185. Add to Hendo's size advantage that he has the better wrestling and you have a bad combination for an opponent who's only chance is to get this fight to the ground. Without Shields being able to get this fight to the ground, I think that we will see a fight that will look very similar to the Hendo/Bisping fight. Bisping shot in for the takedown twice and it was nearly laughable how easy it was for Hendo to shrug it off. This will force Shields to stand up, where he has shown little improvement over his last couple fights. If you think Bisping looked uncomfortable standing with Hendo, wait till you see Shields. If somehow Jake does get this to the ground, whether it be by pulling guard or Hendo deciding to shoot in on him, I still think Hendo should be fine. Shields is a great grappler and submission artist but he has shown that he has trouble holding position and Hendo shouldn't have that difficult of a time creating space. I'd say Hendo's one weakness in this fight would be his conditioning - however Shields has also been known to be light in the gas tank. As long as Hendo isn't taking this fight too lightly or decides to get sloppy on the ground, he should be able to finish this one within the first 2 rounds.
Lawal (+201) 0.75 units to win 1.5 units
I told myself I would stay away from this fight but I couldn't talk myself out of making a small play on King Mo. There are a lot of variables and unknowns in this fight which is the reason I wanted to avoid it. This is a big step up in competition for Mo. He hasn't been pushed in any of his fights and hasn't faced anyone with the all around skills of Mousasi. What Mo does have is excellent wrestling and ridiculous power. What makes me worried about him the most is that he has shown the flare to want to stand and exchange with his opponents. Thats fine and dandy when you are facing the Mark Kerr's and Mike Whitehead's of the world but I don't think its a winning proposition against Mousasi. While I still don't see Gegard as an elite phenom as most do on the feet, he definitely has the technique advantage and power to go along with it. However, one thing I don't think Mousasi will be able to utilize in this fight are his kicks, as they will open up for easy takedown opportunities. That will at least make his stand-up somewhat more predictable for King Mo. The other worry I have for Mo is the question of whether he can use his wrestling for 25mins against the solid ground game of Mousasi. Mousasi has good submissions and sweeps, and I find it hard to believe that Mo will be able to lay on him for 25 mins. With that said, Mo has great ground and pound and I believe he has a good chance of employing it tonight if he gets out of the blocks early. The longer this fight goes, the more it swings in Mousasi's favour IMO. If Mo can stick to his strengths I believe he is a solid play at this price.
Shinya Aoki (+145) 0.75 units to win 1.0875 units
I find myself in the minority here but I can't ignore the price on a guy who can finish the fight at anytime once he sees any body part exposed. There are a couple things that kept me from making this a bigger play. First Aoki is fighting in the US for the first time. He is also fighting in a cage for the first time. And he wont be able to wear his rainbow powered grappling pants. These 3 things combined put him at a larger disavantage than if this fight were to take place in Japan. I think you would see a totally different price if that were the case. Other than this external issues, the other problem for Aoki in this fight is his disdain for getting hit. He is like the LW version of Frank Mir. Melendez doesn't have great power but it is definitely enough to make Aoki think twice of wanting to be in the cage for this one. My question is this - can Melendez keep this fight standing for 5 rounds? Obviously Aoki has rudementary striking at best so that would be Melendez's best option. But avoiding a grappler of Aoki's caliber for 5 rounds is a tough proposition. Aoki will no problem pulling guard if he can get inside on Melendez on the feet. Also, Melendez loves to use his GnP and wrestling to overwork his opponents. If (and when he does IMO) Melendez goes this route, I don't think he has the sub-defense to keep Aoki from removing a limb from his Torso. Overall, I think this should be a great fight and I can't wait to watch it. Hopefully a Japanese fighter can finally make his mark in the US.
Strikeforce Recap:
Askren/Henderson 2-Fight Parlay (-165) 5 units to win 3.05 units
Lawal (+201) 0.75 units to win 1.5 units
Shinya Aoki (+145) 0.75 units to win 1.0875 units
GL Tonight to everyone!Comment -
Solid bets with Askren and Hendo and Lawal...not sure bout Aoki tho...ive got Melendez but wont be surprised if Aoki flying armbars him or something in the second round!Comment -
Ya that fight should be a good one.
One thing I didn't really get across in my writeup that I was trying to convey is that Gilbert has the natural instinct to take it to the ground, especially when he hurts his opponents. If he knocks Aoki over with a jab or a straight I think he will be inclined to do what he has been programmed to do as a fighter which is go in for the finsh. I think he is going to have to be sure that Aoki is actually hurt enough to go in for the kill - if he dives in to finish him off he might find himself in tapping before he knows it.Comment -
[quote=Eccocide;4128769]
Shinya Aoki (+145) 0.75 units to win 1.0875 units
I find myself in the minority here but I can't ignore the price on a guy who can finish the fight at anytime once he sees any body part exposed. There are a couple things that kept me from making this a bigger play. First Aoki is fighting in the US for the first time. He is also fighting in a cage for the first time. And he wont be able to wear his rainbow powered grappling pants. These 3 things combined put him at a larger disavantage than if this fight were to take place in Japan. I think you would see a totally different price if that were the case. Other than this external issues, the other problem for Aoki in this fight is his disdain for getting hit. He is like the LW version of Frank Mir. Melendez doesn't have great power but it is definitely enough to make Aoki think twice of wanting to be in the cage for this one. My question is this - can Melendez keep this fight standing for 5 rounds? Obviously Aoki has rudementary striking at best so that would be Melendez's best option. But avoiding a grappler of Aoki's caliber for 5 rounds is a tough proposition. Aoki will no problem pulling guard if he can get inside on Melendez on the feet. Also, Melendez loves to use his GnP and wrestling to overwork his opponents. If (and when he does IMO) Melendez goes this route, I don't think he has the sub-defense to keep Aoki from removing a limb from his Torso. Overall, I think this should be a great fight and I can't wait to watch it. Hopefully a Japanese fighter can finally make his mark in the US.
quote]
These are my exact thoughts on this fight. Playing it too. Couldnt get myself to post it up as I have been slumping so bad.Comment -
Adding more on Aoki:
Aoki (+145) 0.75 units to win 1.0875 units. Total = 1.5 units to win 2.175 unitsComment -
jake shieldsComment -
I think everyone had too lose something on that damn hendo fight!!!! Wow!!!!Comment -
lol, I didn't know Hendo had a back injury and would gas after 1 round, so yes in that respect you were right. Fight was over in the first round if he would have went in for the kill rather than playing it safe. Also, you claimed Jake would only need 1 takedown to finish the fight. He had tons and had mount every round and couldnt finish. Thats something he definitely needs to work on because not everyone would just lay there with no effort to get out like Hendo. He didnt even try to keep Jake in his guard...was a pretty sad sight. Oh well, we move on.Comment -
WEC 48:
Donald Cerrone (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
Adding:
WEC 48:
Jorgensen (-190) 3.8 units to win 2 units
Sung Jung (+146) 1.5 units to win 2.19 units
Njokuani (+150) 1.5 units to win 2.25 units
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yeahComment -
Njokuani underdog? Will be taking advantage of tht!Comment
