I wasnt able to get online all day but I did end up buying back 1 unit on Madsen at +140 but i think the fight started already as the prelims were supposed to start at 7:30 so I won't count it to my record. Also added 1 unit on Pellegrino at +165. Out for the night again. Hope its a profitable one for everyone.
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UFC 116 Results: +8.4 units
Big night for me. Looks like the studying paid off. Hit some nice dogs in Grove and Leben. Leben has tremendous heart. Its almost impossible to bet against the guy. Lesnar had more resieliance than I thought. I was extremely impressed by his determination. Awesome card, awesome results. Hopefully this gets me going on a good run.Comment -
Well its nice to take a breather after the last month or so. I was on a treacherous run that put me in the red for the first time in a long time. But last night dug me out of that and put me back in the green since starting the thread. I finally had a couple breaks go my way with some split decision wins. I think it was well deserved after some of the bad beats over the last month though lol. I think I am going to focus most of my efforts on the UFC only and keep my bets in other organizations relatively small. Not sure why but they havent treated me well. This Bellator season put a really bad taste in my mouth with those Imada and Friere horrible decisions.
Next card isnt for a month. Booked my play on Okami when the line opened. Its the only play I have right now. Going to start doing my research on the rest of the card this week. Initial leans to Ellenberger and Kelly. I'm also interested to see the line of the Riddle/Johnson matchup. Anyway, thats enough of my blathering, hope everyone had a good night last night as well!Comment -
An inspiring comeback Ecco...Lesnaresque indeed! Im also out of the red after last night so gd shit all round! I like Okami, Ellenberger and Kelly as well. Who do u reckon will win between Johnson and Riddle? Im edging towards Damarques but think he will be -150 favourite so might be no value in it.Comment -
Congrats! I saw your picks and you were on a very nice run early. Glad you had a profitable night.
I need to go back and watch some more footage but my initial lean is towards Damarques, but its nothing concrete. I'm actually more interested in the line just due to the fact that Riddle has been a -200 or more fav in all of his UFC fights and DeMarques has been a sizable dog in his last 2. It'll be interesting to see what the linesmakers come up with in this situation.Comment -
great work sir, looks like most of us had a good night.Comment -
My computer is jacked and havent gotten around to studying much for the August cards but saw that 5dimes posted this line and I had to play it now. This is an crazy line.
UFC 121
Yoshihiro Akiyama (+200) 2 units to win 4 unitsComment -
Man, I have to pay more attention to lines opening - Akiyama is already in to +150 at 5dimesComment -
Not that crazy at allComment -
Probably basing on it on the fact that Bisping beat Leben comfortably and Leben beat Sexy (obviously not as simple as that and MMAMath doesnt always work) as Leben wasnt at his best when he fought Bisping (and was on drug enhancements!). Bisping should be able to get another comfortable decision win I think. Sexyama wont be able to keep Bisping downComment -
Might not be crazy to some, but it looks like it the early money agrees with me. Line down to +115
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I'll be betting Bisping by decision
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Finally got the new comp in so I'm back up and running. Spent a lot of the past couple days studying up on the card for this weekend since I've been without a comp for a bit. Now I only have a week to study for next weekend lol...one card at a time!
UFC on Versus 2
Yushin Okami (-145) 2.9 units to win 2 units
Ellenberger/Gomi-Griffin starts round two 2-fight parlay (-117) 2.63 units to win 2.25 units
Igor Pokrajac (+150) 1.5 units to win 2.25 units
Jacob Volkmann (-110) 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
DeMarques Johnson (+177) 1 unit to win 1.77 units
That is probably all for the card. I may possibly be adding a couple round props but not as of now. GL tomorrow to everyone.Comment -
One final add:
Jones/Matyushenko Over 1.5 rounds (-116) 1.74 units to win 1.5 units
I'm a little worried about the Johnson bet as he didnt look very good at the weigh-ins and couldn't cut the extra pound to make weight. Its not a good sign when the commission tells you that you arent allowed to try to make weight for your own safety. With it being my smallest bet, I'm just going to stick it out and hope that he can do damage early.Comment -
Dumb parlay, beautiful by Gomi. Happy for him! But if screwed me being so early lol.
Okami/Ellenberger 2-fight parlay (+141) 3 units to win 4.23 units
Risky here since I already have Okami but whatever. Shouldnt have had that prop parlayed with Ellenberger so I put myself in this position!Comment -
UFC on Versus 2 Results: +4.61 units
Nice night. Props let me down as I only got one fight wrong. Actually went 9-1 in the predictions contest. Hope everyone had a profitable night as well!Comment -
nice work bro
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Thnx philly! No rest, time to study up for Saturday now
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Congrats on the 9 and 1 predictions Ecco...gonna have to keep an eye on ur 117 picks now that uve got a bit of form going in to it!Comment -
another solid nightComment -
thnx guys, hope to keep the ball rollin this weekend. Have a couple of plays to book now, and will have more to come once I finalize.
UFC 117:
Ricardo Almeida (-161) 4.025 units to win 2.5 units
Struve/Hendricks 2-fight parlay (-106) 2.12 units to win 2 unitsComment -
Big value in this prop 5dimes posted. I'm surprised it's this high!
Anderson silva by submission (+921) 1.25 units to win 11.51 units
it's a little bigger than I would normally put on a finish prop but I thought this would be closer to +500 max.Comment -
ya great value in it, i got it at +1050 this morning, already down to +694Comment -
Down to +504 now. Glad I got it when I did lol. Whole world is on fitch, line moving the opposite way.......I know what usually happens in this situation lol. Strongly considering a play on Alves. Still have more studying to do.Comment -
Finished up some more video and I'm gunna bite on Hazelett.
Adding:
Hazelett (-115) 1.725 units to win 1.5 units
UFC 117 so far:
Ricardo Almeida (-161) 4.025 units to win 2.5 units
Struve/Hendricks 2-fight parlay (-106) 2.12 units to win 2 units
Hazelett (-115) 1.725 units to win 1.5 units
Anderson silva by submission (+921) 1.25 units to win 11.51 units
I may have 1 or 2 more plays but need to finish up on some studying for them.
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What are your thoughts on Dos Santos/Nelson? Am I missing something? Dos Santos has the advantage in every aspect. How does Nelson win? Decision? No way, he can't possibly grapple for 3 full rounds with Dos Santos.Comment -
Yee I see Dos Santos dominating...check out his handspeed and power in the open workout! SCARY STUFF...
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This is a different fighter than Dos Santos has ever fought. Pretty much every guy he has fought has kept their distance, stayed outside the pocket and looked for openings which is a bad strategy against Dos Santos. Nelson isnt going to play that game. He will look to grind Dos Santos against the cage and use his weight to wear him down. It will be a very similar strategy to what he imployed vs Arlovski. He was doing very well in the fight until he gassed. I don't see that happening so easily this time as he took that fight on a weeks notice and his cardio was not up to par.
The problem I have with Nelson is that he doesnt have great takedowns. He relies a lot on trips and sweeps and those will be difficult and taxing to pull off against a guy with Dos Santos' strength. I think it will hard for him to execute his gameplan and dictate where the fight takes place for the entire 3 rounds without having to get into some sort of lengthy exchange on the feet. I think Dos Santos takes this fight but I wouldnt play him at this price as theres no value and its stylistically not the best matchup. I do like over 1.5 rounds at -110 and will most likely be adding this to my bets shortly.Comment -
Couple more adds. This will be the final card. Alves looked a little distraught after coming in overweight. Gotta play Fitch as the dog even though my instincts are telling me not to.
Adding:
Hazelett (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
Fitch (+121) 1.25 units to win 1.525 units
Dos Santos/Nelson Over 1.5 rounds (-101) 1.515 units to win 1.5 units
UFC 117 Recap:
Ricardo Almeida (-161) 4.025 units to win 2.5 units
Struve/Hendricks 2-fight parlay (-106) 2.12 units to win 2 units
Hazelett (-115) 1.725 units to win 1.5 units & Hazelett (-118) 1.77 units to win 1.5 units
Anderson silva by submission (+921) 1.25 units to win 11.51 units
Fitch (+121) 1.25 units to win 1.525 units
Dos Santos/Nelson Over 1.5 rounds (-101) 1.515 units to win 1.5 units
GL to everyone tomorrow!Comment -
Im going to add one last play that I've been debating and a hedge parlay.
Adding:
Guida/Dos Anjos goes the distance (-150) 2.25 units to win 1.5 units
Hughes by Decision / Story / Dos Santos 3-fight parlay 0.75 units to win 7.7 units
and on a side note, I can't believe Anderson by submission is down to +290 from where it opened. Must have a lot of money coming in on it.Comment
