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UFC 117 Results: +6.015 units
Well that's the 3rd card in a row with positive units, +19 units over the 3 cards. However I was a little fortunate on this card lol. Sliva by submission at +924 put me to +6 instead of -5 for this card. I split on my fight bets but lost 2 of the bigger ones. It was an absolutely wild card. I feel unlucky on some and lucky on others so I guess it balances out. Guida/Dos Anjos going the distance was inevitable until Dos Anjos tapped due to pain...that hurt a bit! Almeida getting subbed by Hughes? Insanity! Haven't watched the Hazelett fight yet so I cant comment on it but I shouldnt have doubled up my bet on such a close fight after breaking it down. Oh well, you live and learn. Onto the next card we go!Comment -
Nice win the on Silva submission.
Hughes just seem to win against jujitsu fighters like BJ Penn, Royce Gracie, Renzo Gracie, Almeida and Matt Serra.Comment -
Adding:
Osipzak (-130) 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
UFC 117 so far:
Ken Florian (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units
Andre Winner (-120) 2.4 units to win 2 units
Nick Osipzak (-130) 1.95 units to win 1.5 unitsComment -
wow, Florian had been available @ -105?!
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Not a big fan of anything for the WEC card tomorrow. I think most of the lines are priced correctly. Going with 2 parlays and thats it.
WEC 50:
Castillo/Vazquez 2-fight parlay (+115) 2 units to win 2.3 units
Jorgensen/Benavidez-Cruz starts round three 2-fight parlay (+113) 2 units to win 2.26 unitsComment -
big fan of the winner play, lets see if I can make it 0-5 betting on a british guy vs an american wrestlerComment -
If Castillo loses I will most likely make a play on Vasquez on his own since the line has dropped. Im not exactly sure why the late movement is swinging the other way but I'm not too concerned about it as of now.Comment -
Perfect night.
WEC 50 Results: +6.06 units
+25 units over the last 4 cards. Hope everyone had a profitable night!Comment -
Awesome job, thats a lot of +units for just 4 cards.Comment -
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You having any action on Bellator tomorrow night? Rogent Llorent looks like a steal to me at +200. ADCC competitor going against a guy who just started fighting this yearComment -
Awesome shit Ecco!
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Thanks guys!
As for Bellator, not sure if I will have anything for tonight. Im trying not to force anything and I didnt fare too well with Bellator last season with some judging screwjobs so Im still a little bitter lol.
As for the Konrad fight, I think its priced correctly. Lloret is a great grappler but hes going to be giving up 35lbs or so in weight to a 2 time NCAA champion...I think its a bad matchup for him even though Konrad is so green. He should be able to dictate where the fight takes place and be in positive positions. Llorets ground game is good but he is very dependent on having top position, not known for fighting off of his back. I have a hard time seeing him finding a way to get Konrad on his back, but we shall see.Comment -
Awesome job, Eccocide. You show admirable restraint in selecting your picks, and it has been paying off.
I agree with you about Konrad-Lloret. I also decided that it's a no-play for me. But what about Kevin Knabjian vs Brian Gassaway? The way I see it, Knabjian is much better on the ground and Gassaway has basically a puncher's/kicker's chance. Gassaway is a decent kickboxer but he doesn't have the best takedown defence and his ground game is horrible. He has 12 losses by submission (granted, he has 48 fights total, but I've seen a couple of his losses and he looks really bad on the ground). Knajbian is no world-beater, but I think he can defeat his 38-year-old opponent who is on a 2-fight losing streak. At -115, it looks like a good play. Agree/disagree?Comment -
I was surprised to see konrad open at -250. I think the line is spot on, i just figured konrad would have a lot more juice. He was -800 and -1000 previously. I think i am going to put a little on konrad/hornbuckle just to keep things interesting. With everything you pointed out, i think there is some value in konrad. I just dont see how lloret ever gets on top in this fight.Comment -
I really should have done a little bit more research there. ADCC competitor screamed, "great guard," to me. I didn't consider he could possibly be bad off of his back (where of course he is going to be all night)
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Can't reply right now, already late for where I'm supposed to be lol. Decided to go ahead and make acouple plays as I see some decent value. Hope my bellator curse is over!
Robertson (-133) 1.995 units to win 1.5 units
konrad/king mo 2-fight parlay 2.42 units to win 2 units.
I'll try to respond and give some thoughts If I get in before the fights.Comment -
For me there are a lot of variables and unknowns in this fight, so I had to stay away. First and foremost, both guys are coming off of very long layoffs. Gassaway hasnt fought in almost 2 years and Knabjian hasnt fought in 18 months. With extended layoffs like these its extremely hard to cap or predict how each fighter will perform. Long layoffs obviously lead to ring rust and its hard to determine what kind of mindset these fighters are in, how they have been training and if they are even well prepared, especially when booking fights on pretty short notice. I will say this, the longer the fight goes the better Knajbian's chances are. Gassaway usually starts pretty quickly then fades as the fight goes on. I wouldnt be surprised if he is in control or dictating the fight for the first round. Knajbian is the younger guy with the better gas tank and should start to take control as the fight goes on. Knajbian hasnt really fought many formidable opponents so its hard for me to gauge his skillset against a guy like Gassaway who has fought the likes of Sanchez, Alessio, Landi-Jons, Thompson, etc etc (albeit with little success). From what I've seen of Knajbian, I don't see him bullying Gassaway around the way a guy like Thompson, or even Petz could do. I think Gassaway should be able to keep it standing for the first half of the fight, then start to fade and get a little sloppy leaving openings for Knajbian. A tough fight to call for me - if i was forced to pick I would prolly go with Knajbian.Comment -
Thanks for the analysis. I'm already on Knabjian for a small amount, so hopefully he'll come through. But I think you're right that it's probably wiser to make this a no-play.Comment -
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UFC 118
Miranda (+180) 2 units to win 3.6 units
Pissed I missed the opener. If this breaks back over +200 I will be adding more on it.Comment -
good luck this weekend eeccoComment -
Blah, was debating hedging the parlay with fejao all day to guarantee profit but I passed..bad decision lol.
A couple of fun longshots for Sengoku tonight - maybe I'll hit one. I tend to stay away from overseas MMA as it is very unpredictable and somewhat corrupted but whatever lol.
Sengoku 14:
Okuno (+300) 0.5 units to win 1.5 units
Yamada (+420) 0.5 units to win 2.1 unitsComment -
Woohoo! Thompson is always a good fade vs a guy with heart/power. Yamada DQed for 3 red-cards for knees to the groin
! Anyway, +1 unit on the night for Sengoku hitting one of the 2 big dogs. Pretty much broke even over the 3 small events (Bellator/Strikeforce/Sengoku) finishing up 0.08 units lol. Shoulda just played Konrad straight up instead of with that bum Lawal!
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i'm excited this weekend's card, and your thoughttsComment -
Gl this weekend Philly!!
Adding:
UFC 118
pierce/Penn-Edgar starts round 2/Diaz-Davis starts round 2 - three fight parlay (+105) 2.5 units to win 2.625 units
Miranda (+170) 0.75 units to win 1.275 unitsComment
