UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum (March 11, 2017)

[Shagdogy]

Card is not that easy to call IMO...

Agreed. I'm having a real hard time capping these fights. Not finding much at all. I'm going to need to be real disciplined here and try not to force bets.

[JIBBBY]

Agreed. I'm having a real hard time capping these fights. Not finding much at all. I'm going to need to be real disciplined here and try not to force bets.

Me too Shag.. Especially because these are mostly all Brazilian fighters fighting in Brazil, one Brazilian in each fight against an outsider... Judging could be fishy, Brazilan fighters extra pumped up to represent, etc.. Tough calls in alot of these fights. Not alot of clear cut winners.. I'll be hedging my asss off in this event just put it that way..

Even the Roni Yahya fight is a tough call.. I'm capping that fight now.. I'll probably play that Yahya by decision prop like the MMAmania writers suggest.. Roni sucks though and gasses badly in every fight..

UFC Fight Night 106 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1

Sat 3/11		1801 Joe Soto		+155	o2½ -270
8:30PM		1802 Rani Yahya		-175	u2½ +230

135 lbs.: Joe Soto vs. Rani Yahya

Joe Soto (17-5) -- a former Bellator Featherweight champion -- stepped up on short notice to take on then-champion T.J. Dillashaw in his Octagon debut. Though he lost the bout and his next two, he's kept himself afloat with consecutive impressive submissions of Chris Beal and Marco Beltran.
"One Bad Mofo's" last seven wins have all come by stoppage.
Rani Yahya (23-8) -- who made the transition from World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) to UFC -- ended his run with the former 0-2 and split his first two bouts in the latter. Undaunted, he has gone 7-1 (1 NC) since 2012, including an unbeaten run at Bantamweight.
He has submitted 17 opponents as a professional, all but one via choke.
What's interesting about this fight is that Yahya has faced and beaten two consecutive Soto-esque fighters in Matthew Lopez and Michinori Tanaka. He's done an excellent job of developing the Demian Maia style where he needs only the slightest physical contact to transition from the feet to a dominant spot on the mat.
Soto's crafty, but not crafty enough.
Even if he hasn't always looked good doing it, Yahya's beaten bigger and stronger scramblers than Soto. Expect a standard Yahya fight wherein he dominates position in the early rounds and survives a late surge to take the decision.
Prediction: Yahya via unanimous decision

[KingHawkins]

I read on a Vegas sportsbook insiders Twitter that Kevin Lee is the books biggest liability for this event. In the same tweet, the guy mentions that Lee trains with "our good friend" One Kicks Gym (in Vegas). I'll prob go huge on Trinaldo. But I am on UFC tilt, still steaming from my Wonderboy losses.

[unitedlad]

Gas in at 185

Edit: Vitor in at 186

[PaperTrail07]

100%------------Want to take Villante---but the brazil factor ect...Same with Means and it's -240.....I'll probably end up playing Means - Points if offered...

Agreed. I'm having a real hard time capping these fights. Not finding much at all. I'm going to need to be real disciplined here and try not to force bets.

[PaperTrail07]

Cant look past it.

Me too Shag.. Especially because these are mostly all Brazilian fighters fighting in Brazil, one Brazilian in each fight against an outsider... Judging could be fishy, Brazilan fighters extra pumped up to represent, etc.. Tough calls in alot of these fights. Not alot of clear cut winners.. I'll be hedging my asss off in this event just put it that way..

Even the Roni Yahya fight is a tough call.. I'm capping that fight now.. I'll probably play that Yahya by decision prop like the MMAmania writers suggest.. Roni sucks though and gasses badly in every fight..

UFC Fight Night 106 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1

Sat 3/11		1801 Joe Soto		+155	o2½ -270
8:30PM		1802 Rani Yahya		-175	u2½ +230

135 lbs.: Joe Soto vs. Rani Yahya

Joe Soto (17-5) -- a former Bellator Featherweight champion -- stepped up on short notice to take on then-champion T.J. Dillashaw in his Octagon debut. Though he lost the bout and his next two, he's kept himself afloat with consecutive impressive submissions of Chris Beal and Marco Beltran.
"One Bad Mofo's" last seven wins have all come by stoppage.
Rani Yahya (23-8) -- who made the transition from World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) to UFC -- ended his run with the former 0-2 and split his first two bouts in the latter. Undaunted, he has gone 7-1 (1 NC) since 2012, including an unbeaten run at Bantamweight.
He has submitted 17 opponents as a professional, all but one via choke.
What's interesting about this fight is that Yahya has faced and beaten two consecutive Soto-esque fighters in Matthew Lopez and Michinori Tanaka. He's done an excellent job of developing the Demian Maia style where he needs only the slightest physical contact to transition from the feet to a dominant spot on the mat.
Soto's crafty, but not crafty enough.
Even if he hasn't always looked good doing it, Yahya's beaten bigger and stronger scramblers than Soto. Expect a standard Yahya fight wherein he dominates position in the early rounds and survives a late surge to take the decision.
Prediction: Yahya via unanimous decision

[Sirius]

I was ready to fade Bethe on the initial lean especially after seeing that she looked a lil more round in the mid section but I just cannot back her rather unknown (to me at least...seen her UFC results and stats) opponent in this spot!
The crowd is going to be cheering with every good move or strike the Brazilian fighters make...there's a chance some may over estimate the impact of this and if so I will be one of them.

The crowd will be louder come main card and I think Bethe will play to it. I basically think the Brazilian out punches Marion to a decision.

My "serious" plays for this event are Bethe and Trinaldo on the ML. ...am failing to see how Lee wins Vs. Trinaldo in Brazil...good luck with wrestling to the decision win...good luck with that!

Not sure how anybody turns down Trinaldo +140 here

Good Luck, Lets go

[JIBBBY]

Gas in at 185

Edit: Vitor in at 186

Yep he made the weight.. Always sketchy with Gas... Everyone made weight.. Nice to see.. No cancellations either for once...

[JIBBBY]

Vitor does look in good shape but probably not juiced.

[firekillex]

thats not even great shape for a 185er imo, look at past pictures of him doesnt even look like the same guy
before his traps were bulging out and not you can clearly see his bones on his collarbone
gonna get starched

kelvin might have the widest / thickest torso ive ever seen btw , he has a weird ass body shape ... wonder if hell ever be able to actually consistently weight in at 170....

also good to see everybody make weight , especially in the Borg vs Formiga fight

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[UncleChael]

I could never bet against Beneil Dariush because I know how good he is. Let's go Benny!!

[Hugo de Naranja]

100%------------Want to take Villante---but the brazil factor ect...Same with Means and it's -240.....I'll probably end up playing Means - Points if offered...

Price is good now

[Shagdogy]

Me too Shag.. Especially because these are mostly all Brazilian fighters fighting in Brazil, one Brazilian in each fight against an outsider... Judging could be fishy, Brazilan fighters extra pumped up to represent, etc.. Tough calls in alot of these fights. Not alot of clear cut winners.. I'll be hedging my asss off in this event just put it that way..

Even the Roni Yahya fight is a tough call.. I'm capping that fight now.. I'll probably play that Yahya by decision prop like the MMAmania writers suggest.. Roni sucks though and gasses badly in every fight..

UFC Fight Night 106 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1

Sat 3/11		1801 Joe Soto		+155	o2½ -270
8:30PM		1802 Rani Yahya		-175	u2½ +230

135 lbs.: Joe Soto vs. Rani Yahya

Joe Soto (17-5) -- a former Bellator Featherweight champion -- stepped up on short notice to take on then-champion T.J. Dillashaw in his Octagon debut. Though he lost the bout and his next two, he's kept himself afloat with consecutive impressive submissions of Chris Beal and Marco Beltran.
"One Bad Mofo's" last seven wins have all come by stoppage.
Rani Yahya (23-8) -- who made the transition from World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) to UFC -- ended his run with the former 0-2 and split his first two bouts in the latter. Undaunted, he has gone 7-1 (1 NC) since 2012, including an unbeaten run at Bantamweight.
He has submitted 17 opponents as a professional, all but one via choke.
What's interesting about this fight is that Yahya has faced and beaten two consecutive Soto-esque fighters in Matthew Lopez and Michinori Tanaka. He's done an excellent job of developing the Demian Maia style where he needs only the slightest physical contact to transition from the feet to a dominant spot on the mat.
Soto's crafty, but not crafty enough.
Even if he hasn't always looked good doing it, Yahya's beaten bigger and stronger scramblers than Soto. Expect a standard Yahya fight wherein he dominates position in the early rounds and survives a late surge to take the decision.
Prediction: Yahya via unanimous decision

I just spent a lot of time on this fight. I think it could be a very fun fight to watch, BUT I'm not gonna play it. Yahya likely for the decision victory but not worth the price IMO.

[Shagdogy]

100%------------Want to take Villante---but the brazil factor ect...Same with Means and it's -240.....I'll probably end up playing Means - Points if offered...

Glad to see the price on Means dropping. I really liked him in the original matchup and he was living up to it even better than I expected. Hard to imagine Oliveira made up the difference so quickly. Might be able to play this fight!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Glad to see the price on Means dropping. I really liked him in the original matchup and he was living up to it even better than I expected. Hard to imagine Oliveira made up the difference so quickly. Might be able to play this fight!

Maybe Means -3.5 at (-130)?

[Shagdogy]

Maybe Means -3.5 at (-130)?

I don't get these spreads with my book... rookie question. Does Means -3.5 mean that he would need to win 30-26, or inside the distance in order to cover?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't get these spreads with my book... rookie question. Does Means -3.5 mean that he would need to win 30-26, or inside the distance in order to cover?

Inside the Distance or any scorecards where the total difference in points is 4 or more. I.e. (30-27, 29-28 x2)

[Sanity Check]

Does anyone remember Jussier Formiga being a "4 time world champion in brazilian jiu jitsu"?

If I remember right, that used to be listed under his accolades.

Seems like its been deleted everywhere.

Maybe it was a Renato Laranja being a "27 time world champion in BJJ" thing?

[Shagdogy]

Inside the Distance or any scorecards where the total difference in points is 4 or more. I.e. (30-27, 29-28 x2)

Makes much more sense... I would say this seems good. I think he stops Oliveira again. Regardless of those knees the last time, that fight was on it's way to being a first round stoppage.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Makes much more sense... I would say this seems good. I think he stops Oliveira again. Regardless of those knees the last time, that fight was on it's way to being a first round stoppage.

Yeah it's almost identical in price to Means ITD (-120) and also covers the possibility of a wide decision (any UD with at least 1 30-27)

[JIBBBY]

I could never bet against Beneil Dariush because I know how good he is. Let's go Benny!!

It is really hard to bet against Dariush as it's usually not a good move. Dude only lost 2 fights.

Won't knock for trying Daruish at plus odds. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Beneil-Dariush-56583

How does he beat the athletic Barboza though is my question? Speed is a killer and Edson isn't bad standing or on the ground and has speed and the athletic advantage.. Does Dariush have enough tools in the shed to beat Edson in Brazil is the big question?

Odds are a bit inviting.. Still on the fence with this fight, could go either way I think.. Odds are spot on in my opinion..

UFC Fight Night 106 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1

Sat 3/11		1201 Beneil Dariush		+130	o2½ -220
11:30PM		1202 Edson Barboza		-150	u2½ +180

[Sirius]

Am pleased with the look of the ceremonial weigh ins...Lee talking hard and tough while Trinaldo stood strong and quiet with the crowd pumped...Bethe also pumped with crowd, in her face and Reneau smiling it off...weak, love it

Also now lean Borrachinha and Means after this...

[BIGDAY]

It's FIGHT NIGHT!

[Unwritten Law]

How about just parlaying all the Brazilians. 67 pays out 150k, BM's max parlay payout.

[Shagdogy]

Card is tough. I feel like the value is with the underdogs in most of these fights, but I don't really feel like I really like any of them to win. So I'm picking most of the favs to win, but I don't want to pay the price for them since I think it's inflated in most of these fights.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree Shag...taking my chances w means points -130

[UncleChael]

It is really hard to bet against Dariush as it's usually not a good move. Dude only lost 2 fights.

Won't knock for trying Daruish at plus odds. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Beneil-Dariush-56583

How does he beat the athletic Barboza though is my question? Speed is a killer and Edson isn't bad standing or on the ground and has speed and the athletic advantage.. Does Dariush have enough tools in the shed to beat Edson in Brazil is the big question?

Odds are a bit inviting.. Still on the fence with this fight, could go either way I think.. Odds are spot on in my opinion..

UFC Fight Night 106 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1

Sat 3/11		1201 Beneil Dariush		+130	o2½ -220
11:30PM		1202 Edson Barboza		-150	u2½ +180

I think he could strike with Edson. He could get top control on a gassed or hurt Edson and submit him. I don't think its realistic to say Dariush can't win 2 rounds.

I bet on Alex Oliveria last fight over Tim Means.. And it honestly looked like he didnt have a chance. Fight was stopped because Means hit with a illegal knee? I forget but anyways Oliveria was already out of it. Lets go the DIRTY BIRD.

[Shagdogy]

I like Means but wish the price was better. I think Costa will stop McLellan with strikes. Kevin Lee is gonna get a good look from me since I think Trinaldo really only can win by early stoppage and he hasn't shown the finishing ability and Lee has been durable. He does take some damage on the feet though, especially from southpaw kicks which Trinaldo can wing. Finally, Borg I think might have just a slight bit of value in the line. That fight will be a battle of positional dominance and Borg holds a strict wrestling advantage and is heavier on top.

[PaperTrail07]

3/11/2017 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Ray Borg* -120 vs Jussier Formiga 3/11/2017 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1502 Tim Means* -185 vs Alex Oliveira 3/11/2017 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1601 Kevin Lee* -185 vs Francisco Trinaldo 3/11/2017 7:00 PM UFC Fighting 2102 Paulo Henrique Costa* -295 vs Garreth McLellan

Risking $100.00 To Win $482.59

[PaperTrail07]

not exactly thrilled w the prices lol

[PaperTrail07]

-300 blind on a 22 year old kid as well LOL...1st UFC fight....smart $$$

[PaperTrail07]

Sprinkle

3/11/2017 11:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1229 Dariush wins by TKO/KO* +850 vs Any other result

[Shagdogy]

-300 blind on a 22 year old kid as well LOL...1st UFC fight....smart $$$

Costa? He's 25 and he's gonna wreck McLellan.

[Shagdogy]

The bets I feel strongest about are matchup based and due to very little confidence in the guys I'm betting against where I believe the fight will take place.

McLellan does not deal with real heat from the hands very well which is exactly what Costa will bring. McLellan lives on the outside and relies almost solely on kicks. Costa will walk through them and hit him very hard. I think McLellan will wilt and his takedowns aren't good enough to save himself when he's in trouble.

Trinaldo is a beast on the feet and has the southpaw striking that will absolutely land on Lee, BUT I don't think this fight stays on the feet and Trinaldo is not strong off his back. If you listen to the commentating during his fights they would have you believe he is dangerous from his back, but he simply hasn't shown it. He has had very friendly matchups during this run of his by facing no one nearly as relentless with wrestling as Kevin Lee is. If Trinaldo doesn't get a stoppage then I don't think he will hold up to the constant wrestling pressure and control of Lee. That said, Trinaldo is at home in Brazil and there's a good chance this sees the cards.

Borg and Means I have a lesser level in confidence in because I think their opponents bring a better test for their skills. Means better than Oliveira IMO no doubt, BUT Oliveira did land a solid spinning heel kick to his gut in his last fight and had some success from the outside. If he decides to slow down the pace of this fight and stay away from Means, there is a chance he could find some success. I think Means wins, but I see this fight going deeper than the last one and having some moments of back and forth. Finally Borg is a very slight lean. He's younger and a little larger and more solid and has shown more of an ability to dictate position, but Formiga is definitely a suitable test for him as he tries to climb the ranks.