UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum (March 11, 2017)

[JIBBBY]

I think Gastelum will win but he gets hit with a LOT of counters, even in fights that he wins. Isn't it possible that Vitor could catch him with a big shot early? Given the price on Kelvin I don't think this is a great fight to bet big, despite Vitor being on the fade list for me.

Vitor 1st round finish prop should be juicy..

Probably his only chance to win at age 39 now.. Vitor is not gonna out work the younger Gas and win rounds on points... I'm still curious to see if Gas can make the weight?.. He's another fighter that struggles to make weight in every fight..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Vitor-Belfort-156

His last win was over Hendo a year ago.. Hendo was old though too..

Need to see if Vitor is juiced or not at weight ins.. That will tell the tale if Vitor has a chance.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Vitor 1st round finish prop should be juicy..

Probably his only chance to win at age 39 now.. Vitor is not gonna out work the younger Gas and win rounds on points... I'm still curious to see if Gas can make the weight?.. He's another fighter that struggles to make weight in every fight..

Fun Fact: Vitor has never won a decision in 23 UFC fights. Gas should make weight at 185, he's only 5'9" after all. I would give you odds on Gastelum to miss if you'd like. He has missed a few times in the past.

[JIBBBY]

Fun Fact: Vitor has never won a decision in 23 UFC fights. Gas should make weight at 185, he's only 5'9" after all. I would give you odds on Gastelum to miss if you'd like. He has missed a few times in the past.

Dude likes to eat and probably cheesy fattening moma's home cooking Mexican foods.. He'll probably make the 185. Still ya never know with him.. He's missed weight BADLY before..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dude likes to eat and probably cheesy fattening moma's home cooking Mexican foods.. He'll probably make the 185. Still ya never know with him.. He's missed weight BADLY before..

That's true.

[firekillex]

Kelvin will make weight easy here, hes probably trying to be a small/cut 185er since he wants to go back to 170 for some reason

but honestly Vitor is a legend but hes absolutely garbage now he has 1 flurry and hes done , Kelvin has a great chin and hell probably just take him down or grind him against the cage to tire him out first then absolutely maul him end of the first or round 2 and finish him imo

[Sanity Check]

Yeah saw that too. But Pepey/Bochniak is also off

You were right. Good call.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2017/3/6/14838046/godofredo-pepey-kyle-bochniak-removed-from-ufc-fortaleza

I think Gastelum will win but he gets hit with a LOT of counters, even in fights that he wins. Isn't it possible that Vitor could catch him with a big shot early? Given the price on Kelvin I don't think this is a great fight to bet big, despite Vitor being on the fade list for me.

I think Kelvin's kickboxing improved a lot since he moved to King's MMA & started training with Rafael Cordeiro a few fights ago.

[firekillex]

Kelvin just has a great pressure boxing style, this fight is a great style matchup for him.. Vitor isnt the striker he used to be and his ground defense has been laughable at best lately, he just seems to give up when adversity hits, pretty easy call imo .. -400+ is a crappy price ....

at the -360 opening price tag that would mean he has 78% chance to win id give Gastelum 85%+ chance to win this fight imo = value

[JIBBBY]

Kelvin just has a great pressure boxing style, this fight is a great style matchup for him.. Vitor isnt the striker he used to be and his ground defense has been laughable at best lately, he just seems to give up when adversity hits, pretty easy call imo .. -400+ is a crappy price ....

at the -360 opening price tag that would mean he has 78% chance to win id give Gastelum 85%+ chance to win this fight imo = value

Can't argue your reasoning..

Gas did just beat the crap out of Tim Kennedy and that's not easy to do.. Little doubt Vitor will see the same fate.. Still Vitor is fighting in Brazil and I'm sure he will come out firing away..

[firekillex]

the only reason Vitor was so good in Brazil before was because hed be juiced to the gills everytime he fought there due to lack of testing realistically, now with USADA and the strict testing even in other countries i doubt hed get away with anything, his body looks deflated and he just doesnt look the same... he still has one solid flurry and the speed but ill take my chances id give him like a 10% chance to win this fight in the end of things and weighing all the options... Kelvin can be beat at 185 but this matchup greatly greatly benefits him

[Sanity Check]

Can't argue your reasoning..

Gas did just beat the crap out of Tim Kennedy and that's not easy to do.. Little doubt Vitor will see the same fate.. Still Vitor is fighting in Brazil and I'm sure he will come out firing away..

That lead uppercut, straight combo is a Conor McGregor / Artem Lobov staple.

Funny how people see Conor doing it, then emulate his style.

Europeans have been doing the same thing with the straight, lead hook combo Bisping used to hurt Luke Rockhold.

I need to watch the Kelvin vs Tim Kennedy fight. Last I heard Kelvin was training his striking with Rafael Cordeiro & I saw him throwing a lot of good kicks in his fight with Johny Hendricks.

If he stopped throwing kicks, I would guess Kelvin is training somewhere else now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

the only reason Vitor was so good in Brazil before was because hed be juiced to the gills everytime he fought there due to lack of testing realistically, now with USADA and the strict testing even in other countries i doubt hed get away with anything, his body looks deflated and he just doesnt look the same... he still has one solid flurry and the speed but ill take my chances id give him like a 10% chance to win this fight in the end of things and weighing all the options... Kelvin can be beat at 185 but this matchup greatly greatly benefits him

I checked out Vitor's Instagram. He's still got the dad bod.

[firekillex]

Vitors last win before TRT Vitor was in 2012 against a ghost of Anthony Johnson btw
or recently I guess if you count a 40+ year old dan Henderson

[JIBBBY]

That lead uppercut, straight combo is a Conor McGregor / Artem Lobov staple.

Funny how people see Conor doing it, then emulate his style.

Europeans have been doing the same thing with the straight, lead hook combo Bisping used to hurt Luke Rockhold.

I need to watch the Kelvin vs Tim Kennedy fight. Last I heard Kelvin was training his striking with Rafael Cordeiro & I saw him throwing a lot of good kicks in his fight with Johny Hendricks.

If he stopped throwing kicks, I would guess Kelvin is training somewhere else now.

If it works it works.. I'd copy it too..

The lead uppercut does catch fighters off guard and that punch can slip thru the defense even when your hands are up.. Hard to generate a ton of power off that punch though for some fighters.. Still if you land it it can set up more powerful strikes right after... Such as the combo's...

McGregor is very successful using that and does generates real power with it...

[firekillex]

Win mma gloves a nice lead uppercut can be a game changer , much much harder to block with those small gloves, in boxing its easier to block with those big ass gloves that's why you don't see it being so successful there

[JIBBBY]

I checked out Vitor's Instagram. He's still got the dad bod.

Fade away then...

[Sanity Check]

If it works it works.. I'd copy it too..

The lead uppercut does catch fighters off guard and that punch can slip thru the defense even when your hands are up.. Hard to generate a ton of power off that punch though for some fighters.. Still if you land it it can set up more powerful strikes right after... Such as the combo's...

McGregor is very successful using that and does generates real power with it...

If people copy Conor, they had better show him respect.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Where do you guys import the gifs from?

[Sanity Check]

Google has an image tab linked to its normal search function.

If you search for something like "Conor lead uppercut cross gif" it'll give you some hits.

[JIBBBY]

Where do you guys import the gifs from?

Go to google search, type, "McGregor ko gifs" for example. Then expand all the gifs and pick one... You'll see many of them.. Copy and paste, then attach to a post. It's fast and simple and you're done..

Takes me about 20 seconds to post with every gif attachment you see with me...If it took any longer I wouldn't be doing it...

[JIBBBY]

Google has an image tab linked to its normal search function.

If you search for something like "Conor lead uppercut cross gif" it'll give you some hits.

You beat me to it.. Lol..

[Unwritten Law]

Full odds are out for this card on 5D.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for letting me know boys. I appreciate it!

[Shagdogy]

I always cap fights from bottom to top cause I think I find best value on the lesser known undercard fighters. Even at -240 there's some value to be had on Paulo Costa IMO. This guy is a legit finisher and it appears to be a real bad style matchup for McLellan.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I always cap fights from bottom to top cause I think I find best value on the lesser known undercard fighters. Even at -240 there's some value to be had on Paulo Costa IMO. This guy is a legit finisher and it appears to be a real bad style matchup for McLellan.

Also McClellan is one of the worst fighters on the roster. Which Costa fights did you watch?

[Shagdogy]

Also McClellan is one of the worst fighters on the roster. Which Costa fights did you watch?

As many as I could find... most of them actually. They're very available on youtube. You can see his progression over the last couple of years too. He was wrestling heavy early on and went to takedowns often but he's gotten very confident in his hands lately and now he pretty much uses his wrestling to stay on the feet and unload power shots. His hands are very busy, decently crisp, and hold a lot of power. The matchup with McLellan is very good for him because when McLellan gets hit with power he loses composure and covers up but doesn't move away or fire back. If he does that in this fight, then Paulo is gonna follow up with more power and McLellan will find himself disoriented quickly. If he doesn't do anything and just covers up, he's going to get TKO'd. If he gets desperate and tries a takedown, well, his takedowns suck and Paulo will shrug him off and deliver more power shots. And finally, if the worst case happens and McLellan somehow finds success on the feet, Paulo's chin seems strong, and he has the offensive ability to take McLellan down. Doubt he will need to though.

[Hugo de Naranja]

As many as I could find... most of them actually. They're very available on youtube. You can see his progression over the last couple of years too. He was wrestling heavy early on and went to takedowns often but he's gotten very confident in his hands lately and now he pretty much uses his wrestling to stay on the feet and unload power shots. His hands are very busy, decently crisp, and hold a lot of power. The matchup with McLellan is very good for him because when McLellan gets hit with power he loses composure and covers up but doesn't move away or fire back. If he does that in this fight, then Paulo is gonna follow up with more power and McLellan will find himself disoriented quickly. If he doesn't do anything and just covers up, he's going to get TKO'd. If he gets desperate and tries a takedown, well, his takedowns suck and Paulo will shrug him off and deliver more power shots. And finally, if the worst case happens and McLellan somehow finds success on the feet, Paulo's chin seems strong, and he has the offensive ability to take McLellan down. Doubt he will need to though.

Cool good to know. I'll check out the tape and let you know if I have anything to add later in the week.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Means
Costa
Gastelum
Barboza
looks like a good parlay yo, what you guys think?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Means
Costa
Gastelum
Barboza
looks like a good parlay yo, what you guys think?

Don't love the value on Means ML even though I think he'll win. Maybe wait for a better price? Otherwise looks good

[Pinoy-T-X]

Don't love the value on Means ML even though I think he'll win. Maybe wait for a better price? Otherwise looks good

Thanks for your input brotha, what worries me on these picks the most is Gastelum, for some reason, Vitor might pull a Hail Mary the fight being in Brazil you never know.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for your input brotha, what worries me on these picks the most is Gastelum, for some reason, Vitor might pull a Hail Mary the fight being in Brazil you never know.

You can always hedge with Vitor KO or Vitor Round 1 if the first three legs get there. Don't really see him winning any other way.

[JIBBBY]

Waiting for all the props to come out, I'm in no hurry to play any of the straight odds on any of these fights..I need to see the weigh ins and read more fighter hype.. If I lose out on the straight odds waiting then I'll play the props instead..

That's how I work it.. Rather be sure of my bet then chasing and placing for odds.. I know most of you guys work it different..

[Shagdogy]

I bet on Means to win in that first matchup and I didn't see anything at all that would make me change my mind. Just confirmed that Means can own Cowboy Oliveira. Price is a bit hefty though.

[JIBBBY]

I bet on Means to win in that first matchup and I didn't see anything at all that would make me change my mind. Just confirmed that Means can own Cowboy Oliveira. Price is a bit hefty though.

That's probably a good fight to bet on now, I don't see much changing with those 2 guys either.. Still I don't see those odds moving much until fight time, fight is in Brazil and that favors Oliveira. Can't see the odds jumping that much in Tims favor..

I think Means wins too.. I like it... Let's get this Shag!!!

[UncleChael]

TRT Vitor is back boys. Trend lightly and mark my words.

[Sato]

Belfort in brazil? No thank you!