UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum (March 11, 2017)

[Hugo de Naranja]

TRT Vitor is back boys. Trend lightly and mark my words.

Got tested 11 times by USADA last year and doesn't look too different too me.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Correia ML is (+110), Correia Decision is (+120) lol
also Vitor ML is (+340), Vitor KO/TKO is (+350). Both seem about right.

[JIBBBY]

Correia ML is (+110), Correia Decision is (+120) lol
also Vitor ML is (+340), Vitor KO/TKO is (+350). Both seem about right.

I laugh when I see props vs straights like these.. It's like you would think the odds makers would see this and adjust..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I laugh when I see props vs straights like these.. It's like you would think the odds makers would see this and adjust..

I think both the props opened higher and got bet down. They will probably adjust in the next few hours but it's always funny to see props and straight that are almost identical like this.

[JIBBBY]

I think both the props opened higher and got bet down. They will probably adjust in the next few hours but it's always funny to see props and straight that are almost identical like this.

Yep, good point.. I guess the lines aren't set like that and adjust to the action placed moving the lines.. Still funny to see..

[JIBBBY]

MMAmania prelim short reads in -




145 lbs.: Rony Jason vs. Jeremy Kennedy

Hopes were high for Team Nogueira’s Rony Jason (14-6) after he ran through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Brazil" and picked up impressive stoppage wins in his next two fights. He proceeded to hit a 1-3 (1 NC) skid, an impressive submission of Damon Jackson overturned because of a failed drug test that kept him out of action for 14 months.
Eight of his 13 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Jeremy Kennedy (9-0) entered UFC with pristine amateur (3-0) and professional (8-0) records, as well as a regional title under his belt. His debut saw him keep the streak alive with a decision over countryman Alex Ricci, whom he overpowered in the clinch for 15 minutes.
He stands four inches taller than Jason at 5’11."
"Jason" has always had oodles of potential, but at almost 33 years old it’s time to put up or shut up. The core issue is the fact that the disparate aspects of his game don’t really mesh -- his wild striking doesn’t blend with his takedowns and he doesn’t have enough one-punch power to justify his stand up approach.
Still, that killer grappling might be enough here. Kennedy isn’t anywhere near the wrestler Bermudez is and his willingness to tie up plays right into Jason’s hands. So long as the Brazilian remembers that he’s a jiu-jitsu artist first and foremost, expect him to lock up a choke in transition late in the first.
Prediction: Jason via first-round submission

185 lbs.: Garreth McLellan vs. Paulo Henrique Costa

Garreth McLellan (13-5) punched his ticket to UFC with two successful defenses of his EFC Middleweight title, both via submission. He’s gone 1-3 in the promotion itself with losses to Bartosz Fabinski, Magnus Cedenblad and Alessio Di Chirico.
"Soldier Boy" is 10 years older than his opponent and owns nine professional wins via submission.
Paulo Henrique Costa (8-0) -- Team Wanderlei’s second pick on TUF: "Brazil 3" -- fell to Team Sonnen top pick Marcio Alexander in the quarterfinals. Returning to the Brazilian circuit, he has won five straight, earning and defending the Jungle Fight middleweight title in his last two bouts.
All eight of his professional fights have ended in the first round, seven by knockout.
"Borrachinha" looks like he’s come a long way since losing to Lyoto. Now 25, he’s an imposing figure with serious power in his hands. His boxing appears fairly effective and he doubles up well with the left hook.
McLellan is more experienced by far, but he’s yet to put everything together in the Octagon. He lacks the wrestling to bring his strong top game to bear and his striking, while decently effective, isn’t far above "functional." We’re likely in for a stand up battle that McLellan doesn’t seem equipped to win.
Costa’s history of first-round finishes could portend some cardio issues, but he hits hard enough to put McLellan away well before that crops up.
Prediction: Costa via first-round technical knockout


155 lbs.: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Kevin Lee

Francisco Trinaldo (21-4) -- who competed on the inaugural TUF: "Brazil" as a Middleweight, seems to be finally living up to his potential, winning his last seven in a row. His most recent bout saw him batter striking standout Paul Felder, ultimately opening a gruesome cut to hand "Irish Dragon" his first-ever stoppage loss.
"Massaranduba" is a full 14 years older than his opponent.
Diving right into the deep end of the division, Kevin Lee (14-2) took on Al Iaquinta in his Octagon debut and nearly submitted TUF veteran before losing a unanimous decision. Despite the rough start, he’s won seven of his last eight, including stoppage wins over highly-touted prospects Jake Matthews and Magomed Mustafaev in his last two.
Six of his seven stoppage wins have come by submission.
As someone who’s been rooting for Trinaldo since his TUF: "Brazil" days, it’s been awesome to see him finally put it all together. He’s put together a mauling style that uses his physicality to its absolute best. Lee’s pretty damn good himself, though, and Trinaldo’s last loss came against another submission-savvy wrestler in Michael Chiesa. That said, Trinaldo’s looked vastly improved and that left hand of his has enough muster to crack Lee’s vulnerable jaw.
A stoppage either way wouldn’t surprise me, but Trinaldo’s sheer strength has me leaning his way. He dings up Lee on the inside before landing something dramatic late in the first.
Prediction: Trinaldo via first-round technical knockout

170 lbs.: Sergio Moraes vs. Davi Ramos

Sergio Moraes (11-2-1) earned a second chance on TUF: "Brazil," but ultimately fell to Cezar "Mutante" at UFC 147. He’s gone undefeated (5-0-1) since then, although injuries to himself and opponents have limited him to less than two fights a year on average.
A two-time gold medalist at Mundials, he has won seven pro fights by submission
Davi Ramos (6-1), whose jumping armbar of Lucas Lepri for ADCC gold stunned observers and cemented his place in Brazilian jiu-jitsu highlight reels for years to come, returned to mixed martial arts (MMA) in Aug. 2016 after nearly two years away from the sport. He quickly put the memory of his decision loss to Dave Rickels behind him with two consecutive wins, one of them under the RFA banner.
He steps in for the injured Max Griffin on short notice.
This fight, despite being buried in the middle of the undercard, features what’s very close to the greatest combined grappling pedigree in Octagon history. These are two of the most accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioners in MMA, period.
Which, of course, means we’re probably going to get a boring striking match.
It may come down to size and power here. Ramos won ADCC at 165 pounds and has spent the majority of his MMA career at Lightweight. In addition, Moraes has shown deceptive stopping power in his hands and is aggressive enough to overwhelm less-willing strikers. Add that to the short notice and you’ve got a decision win for TUF veteran.
Prediction: Moraes via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Joe Soto vs. Rani Yahya

Joe Soto (17-5) -- a former Bellator Featherweight champion -- stepped up on short notice to take on then-champion T.J. Dillashaw in his Octagon debut. Though he lost the bout and his next two, he's kept himself afloat with consecutive impressive submissions of Chris Beal and Marco Beltran.
"One Bad Mofo's" last seven wins have all come by stoppage.
Rani Yahya (23-8) -- who made the transition from World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) to UFC -- ended his run with the former 0-2 and split his first two bouts in the latter. Undaunted, he has gone 7-1 (1 NC) since 2012, including an unbeaten run at Bantamweight.
He has submitted 17 opponents as a professional, all but one via choke.
What's interesting about this fight is that Yahya has faced and beaten two consecutive Soto-esque fighters in Matthew Lopez and Michinori Tanaka. He's done an excellent job of developing the Demian Maia style where he needs only the slightest physical contact to transition from the feet to a dominant spot on the mat.
Soto's crafty, but not crafty enough.
Even if he hasn't always looked good doing it, Yahya's beaten bigger and stronger scramblers than Soto. Expect a standard Yahya fight wherein he dominates position in the early rounds and survives a late surge to take the decision.
Prediction: Yahya via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Josh Burkman vs. Michel Prazeres

A 6-1 run that saw him knockout Aaron Simpson and choke out Jon Fitch brought Josh Burkman (28-14) back to UFC after six years away. He’s struggled to keep that momentum up in the Octagon, going 1-4 (1 NC) in his latest run.
He has submitted 10 professional opponents and knocked out another six.
Michel Prazeres (21-2) stepped up on short notice to take on Paulo Thiago in his 2013 UFC debut, ultimately losing a decision to the welterweight veteran. He’s since gone 5-1 at Lightweight with wins over top prospects Mairbek Taisumov and Gilbert Burns among his accomplishments.
"Trator" will give up three inches of height to the 5’10" Burkman.
The only thing that comes to mind when looking at this match up is the word "why." Prazares is on a tear and Burkman hasn’t looked great in a fight since starching Tyler Stinson in 2014. Even with Burkman’s size at Lightweight, there’s very little to suggest that "Trator" won’t just bulldoze him the way Dong Hyun Kim did.
Prazeres has massively improved his striking and appears to have finally fixed his lingering cardio issues. Add that to his already-excellent wrestling and I can confidently say he’s going to take Burkman down early and often for a dominant decision win.
Prediction: Prazeres via unanimous decision

[firekillex]

darkhorse fight of the night is Jussier Formiga vs Ray Borg...
Ray Borg has really impressed me lately other then his weight cutting issues.. dudes a beast for the weight class
hes also fighting out his last fight before his contract so he has a lot riding on this fight , especially fighting Formiga in Brazil
Formiga has only lost to the top talent at 25 ( Dodson, Benavidez, Cejudo ) but this is a great even fight where both guys have an avenue to win imo

i like the over but -230 is a steep price so ill most likely take Borg decision +155 in a closely contested bout i think he can take 2 of 3 rounds in a tight battle contested with a ton of grappling/scrambles and land the bigger shots as long as he doesnt get caught by a submission

[Sanity Check]

TRT Vitor is back boys. Trend lightly and mark my words.

The brazilian athletic commission is shady.

Remember when Jose Aldo had a USADA tester who came to get a urine sample put in prison?

You might be on to something there.

[JIBBBY]

Vitor is a month away from 40 years old.. Juicing last minute or not probably won't save him in this bout.. Gas is a pressuring fighter with a good chin.. Vitor will wither quickly under that pressure.. More I think about this fight the more I think Vitor gets smoked..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Vitor-Belfort-156

[JIBBBY]

darkhorse fight of the night is Jussier Formiga vs Ray Borg...
Ray Borg has really impressed me lately other then his weight cutting issues.. dudes a beast for the weight class
hes also fighting out his last fight before his contract so he has a lot riding on this fight , especially fighting Formiga in Brazil
Formiga has only lost to the top talent at 25 ( Dodson, Benavidez, Cejudo ) but this is a great even fight where both guys have an avenue to win imo

i like the over but -230 is a steep price so ill most likely take Borg decision +155 in a closely contested bout i think he can take 2 of 3 rounds in a tight battle contested with a ton of grappling/scrambles and land the bigger shots as long as he doesnt get caught by a submission

I'm leaning Jussier by decision or maybe even by submission myself..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jussier-da-Silva-36939

In Brazil I gotta go with the home town Country boy.. Ray Borg is solid but I think he gets out worked slightly.. Don't see Brazilian fighters getting robbed in decisions with this event just put it that way..

I'm gonna be very careful taking any Brazilian fighter to lose by decision with my prop play in this event.. Don't trust the judging down there..

[Sanity Check]

Rafael Cordeiro is holding pads for Kelvin ^.

Bad sign for Vitor I'm thinking.

Rafael Cordeiro also training Shogun, looks like ^.

AFAIK Cordeiro and Shogun have not worked together since sometime before Shogun lost the UFC belt to Jon Jones.

Wonder if it will make a difference.

[eligibletackle]

JIBBY do you track your record or have gone to your book to keep some semblance of an audit trail ?

[UncleChael]

Gastelum isnt a killer with the takedowns. Vitor had Weidman hurt, he put out Rockhold. Knocked out Dan Henderson twice. I think Rick Story had Gastelum rocked. Vitor has the most KOs in the ufc with 12 and Vitor's the bigger man? And its in Brazil.. Vitor running to that cage, cant wait.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Line flipped on Borg/Formiga. Borg now a (-130) favorite.

[Pinoy-T-X]

Line flipped on Borg/Formiga. Borg now a (-130) favorite.

Good. I like Formga at this odds at Brazil.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good. I like Formga at this odds at Brazil.

I have a feeling you will get even better odds on Formiga if you wait.

[JIBBBY]

JIBBY do you track your record or have gone to your book to keep some semblance of an audit trail ?

Yes, I keep a general record of dollar amount wins or losses with every event... Then carry those totals thru each year.. Jan thru Dec.. Then start over..

[JIBBBY]

I have a feeling you will get even better odds on Formiga if you wait.

That's good cause I'm going with Formiga as well, bets not in yet...

[firekillex]

I was liking Borg but not at -130
id say 55% chance he wins , super close/ tight fight
at plus odds Formiga will have value

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone have thoughts on Lee/Trinaldo?

[JIBBBY]

Anyone have thoughts on Lee/Trinaldo?

Leaning Kevin Lee because of his wrestling but worried about a decision robbery in Brazil... Probably still going with Lee by decision..

There's a chance Lee can get a submission win here as well..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Lee-84342

[firekillex]

trinaldo has a ton of momentum right now , dudes been beasting out lately plus in Brazil ... hard to fade him here
Lee is a solid prospect but not sure its his time yet, I think Trinaldo will get a hard faught decision in this one imo
his size and power will be to much for Lee to handle

[Hugo de Naranja]

Leaning Kevin Lee because of his wrestling but worried about a decision robbery in Brazil... Probably still going with Lee by decision..

There's a chance Lee can get a submission win here as well..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Lee-84342

That's what I'm thinking as well. I like Trinaldo and I don't want to fade him but his TDD is below average and Lee is a very good wrestler with a solid back take game. Not sure what this gif shows since Iaquinta is the one attempting a sub but Lee might get Trinaldo's back and lock in an RNC. Have a small bet on Trinaldo Decision since that was my initial lean but probably not betting this fight big after more tape study.

[Hugo de Naranja]

trinaldo has a ton of momentum right now , dudes been beasting out lately plus in Brazil ... hard to fade him here
Lee is a solid prospect but not sure its his time yet, I think Trinaldo will get a hard faught decision in this one imo
his size and power will be to much for Lee to handle

That was my initial lean but upon further review I think Lee will have success with the wrestling throughout. I would bet Trinaldo against most LW strikers (I bet him big against Felder for instance) but I think this is a bad matchup for him.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think Borg's frame may have outgrown the Flyweight division. I see him missing weight again in the near future and moving up to Bantamweight, just like his former opponent Justin Scoggins.

[JIBBBY]

That's what I'm thinking as well. I like Trinaldo and I don't want to fade him but his TDD is below average and Lee is a very good wrestler with a solid back take game. Not sure what this gif shows since Iaquinta is the one attempting a sub but Lee might get Trinaldo's back and lock in an RNC. Have a small bet on Trinaldo Decision since that was my initial lean but probably not betting this fight big after more tape study.

Just showing Lee's take down and wrestling capabilities.. He's a wrestler with good take downs and an underrated submission game.. Only take down gif I could quickly find with Lee .

[PaperTrail07]

Card is not that easy to call IMO...

[Pinoy-T-X]

Card is not that easy to call IMO...

I think this card is better to call vs next week in London, jmho

[Hugo de Naranja]

Seeing this as mostly a parlay card. Taking a few shots on some Long-shot props as well.

[JIBBBY]

Seeing this as mostly a parlay card. Taking a few shots on some Long-shot props as well.

This card is a little tricky, not a clear cut as last card that's for sure..

Seriously thinking of fading Shogun..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gian-Villante-42802

[Hugo de Naranja]

This card is a little tricky, not a clear cut as last card that's for sure..

Seriously thinking of fading Shogun..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gian-Villante-42802

Villante has good kicks and hits hard but he has horrendous fight IQ. I was at his fight against Safarov and bet him to ML and KO. Safarov ****** up his knee early and Villante didn't seem to notice or do anything. He couldn't get an opponent with essentially one leg out of there for over 5 minutes and almost got finished himself. I can't play that Fight IQ or Cardio myself even though Villante could definitely win.

[JIBBBY]

Villante has good kicks and hits hard but he has horrendous fight IQ. I was at his fight against Safarov and bet him to ML and KO. Safarov ****** up his knee early and Villante didn't seem to notice or do anything. He couldn't get an opponent with essentially one leg out of there for over 5 minutes and almost got finished himself. I can't play that Fight IQ or Cardio myself even though Villante could definitely win.

Shogun has been in alot of wars, I do think this one ends up in a knock out one way or the other.. Gian Villante does have alot of KO's on his record.. He's been fighting in the UFC for a while now also.. At age 31 I give him a chance against the aging and battle worn Shogun..

Shoguns chin can't be trusted anymore I think..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Shogun has been in alot of wars, I do think this one ends up in a knock out one way or the other.. Gian Villante does have alot of KO's on his record.. He's been fighting in the UFC for a while now also.. At age 31 I give him a chance against the aging and battle worn Shogun..

Shoguns chin can't be trusted anymore I think..

Agreed. I think both guys get knocked down in a fun fight. Maybe play the Under or Fight WGD?

[JIBBBY]

Agreed. I think both guys get knocked down in a fun fight. Maybe play the Under or Fight WGD?

These are some options then...

1104

Fight won’t go 3 round distance

-170

1133

Rua wins by TKO/KO

+190

1129

Villante wins by TKO/KO

+280

UFC Fight Night 106 - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1

Sat 3/11		1101 Gian Villante		+120	o1½ -160
11:59PM		1102 Mauricio Rua		-140	u1½ +140

Shogun did take some heavy punches from Hendo to his credit 3 years ago, but that was 3 years ago.. Maybe his chin isn't completely shot just yet but getting there..







And the strike that ended the fight..

[rsynweap84]

Marion Reneau all the way, ole pitbull gonna get smashed. She has worse stand-up, she has worse ground game. Her only avenue to win is if Marion Reneau doesn't come to fight and lets the judges throw pitbull a bone.

However, considering Marion Reneau has been calling this b!tch out for her last 3 fights, I highly doubt she came here to do nothin'. That makes the only question, a decision or ITD win for Reneau?