UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum (March 11, 2017)

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  • THE_LOCKSMITH
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-25-08
    • 7237

    #1
    UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum (March 11, 2017)


    FOX Sports 1, 10:00 pm ET
    Vitor Belfort vs Kelvin Gastelum
    Mauricio Rua vs Gian Villante
    Edson Barboza vs Beneil Dariush
    Ray Borg vs Jussier Formiga
    Bethe Correia vs Marion Reneau
    Tim Means vs Alex Oliveira

    FOX Sports 1, 08:00 pm ET
    Francisco Trinaldo vs Kevin Lee
    Kyle Bochniak vs Godofredo Pepy
    Max Griffin vs Sergio Moraes
    Josh Burkman vs Michel Prazeres

    UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
    Rony Jason vs Jeremy Kennedy
    Joe Soto vs Rani Yahya
    Garreth McLellan vs Paulo Henrique Costa



  • JC2008
    SBR MVP
    • 02-27-08
    • 2258

    #2
    - This card looks just as good as this weekends, if not better!
    Comment
    • Hugo de Naranja
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 04-14-16
      • 14140

      #3
      Originally posted by JC2008
      - This card looks just as good as this weekends, if not better!
      UFC does all the Brazil cards big it seems
      Comment
      • Sanity Check
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-30-13
        • 10962

        #4
        13 fights on the card.

        With a brazilian in every fight.

        Nice.
        Comment
        • Hugo de Naranja
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 04-14-16
          • 14140

          #5
          I think Pepey vs. Bochniak is cancelled. Shame since Pepey fights are always wild and fun.
          Comment
          • Sanity Check
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-30-13
            • 10962

            #6
            Max Griffin pulled out of his fight with Sergio Moraes & was replaced by someoene else.

            That could be who you're thinking of.

            6 days out from the event, odds are out later than normal.

            I wonder if bookies are losing money on MMA & putting more time into their oddsmaking.
            Last edited by Sanity Check; 03-05-17, 05:00 PM.
            Comment
            • Hugo de Naranja
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 04-14-16
              • 14140

              #7
              Originally posted by Sanity Check
              Max Griffin pulled out of his fight with Sergio Moraes & was replaced by someoene else.

              That could be who you're thinking of.

              6 days out from the event, odds are out later than normal.

              I wonder if bookies are losing money on MMA & putting more time into their oddsmaking.
              Yeah saw that too. But Pepey/Bochniak is also off
              Comment
              • firekillex
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-18-13
                • 6420

                #8
                gastelum all in
                barbosa should cash as well, hell have to avoid the takedowns and pick apart dariush from the outside with his lethal kick
                underrated solid fight at 55 though
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                • Hugo de Naranja
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 04-14-16
                  • 14140

                  #9
                  Originally posted by firekillex
                  gastelum all in
                  barbosa should cash as well, hell have to avoid the takedowns and pick apart dariush from the outside with his lethal kick
                  underrated solid fight at 55 though
                  Gotta watch more tape on that one. I've typically underrated Dariush. Picked against him in his last 3 and he's 2-1
                  Comment
                  • CaptChaos145
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 04-03-14
                    • 588

                    #10
                    Barbosa has really good TD defense. Dariush should attack hard and push the pace but Barboza is more polished on the feet. With that said Barboza is a tad Chinny. I think this is a risky fight to bet on. I can see either guy winning. Common opponent is Michael Johnson. Both guys eeked out close decisions over MJ.

                    Dariush is still getting better whereas Barbosa, although talented, really brings the same solid game with him.

                    Barbosa doesn't stop guys with his hands. He's a kicker and the best in the division at that one aspect. Slight lean Dariush with the plus money.
                    Last edited by CaptChaos145; 03-05-17, 11:22 PM.
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                    • firekillex
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-18-13
                      • 6420

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                      Gotta watch more tape on that one. I've typically underrated Dariush. Picked against him in his last 3 and he's 2-1
                      i actually like dariush quiet a bit and have watched his career in the UFC , has a solid style to be a top 10 155er but i dont think he can crack into the top 5... I think Barbosa is top 5 quality and the style matchup favors him, Dariush is a great grappler and he has solid kicks, this will come down to if he can get Barbosa down and control him ... The standup will definitely go to Barbosa the faster , more technical and bigger guy.... The odds are actually pretty spot on here but anything under -200 i like Barbosa, i might play Barbosa by decision if the prop numbers are right
                      Comment
                      • JIBBBY
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-10-09
                        • 83693

                        #12
                        Gas by KO.. Vitor is done in the sport.. Meeting a guy with a granite chin too..

                        Edson Barboza/Daruish is a tricky fight to call.. Daruish is very well rounded and if he doesn't get clipped standing he probably wins this fight.. Still EB probably gets the KO, he's quicker and probably the better striker....

                        May play Daruish straight and hedge with the Barboza KO or ITD prop..
                        Comment
                        • Pinoy-T-X
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-28-12
                          • 2176

                          #13
                          Originally posted by JIBBBY
                          Gas by KO.. Vitor is done in the sport.. Meeting a guy with a granite chin too..

                          Edson Barboza/Daruish is a tricky fight to call.. Daruish is very well rounded and if he doesn't get clipped standing he probably wins this fight.. Still EB probably gets the KO, he's quicker and probably the better striker....

                          May play Daruish straight and hedge with the Barboza KO or ITD prop..
                          I agree. However, if it's a close fight I don't see Daruish winning a decision in Brazil.
                          Last edited by Pinoy-T-X; 03-06-17, 02:00 PM. Reason: Spelling
                          Comment
                          • Hugo de Naranja
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 04-14-16
                            • 14140

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Pinoy-T-X
                            I agree. However, if it's a close fight I don't see Daruish winning a decision in Brazil.
                            Agreed, especially given his not so judging-friendly style. That said, Barboza's chin can be cracked.
                            Comment
                            • Pinoy-T-X
                              SBR MVP
                              • 10-28-12
                              • 2176

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                              Agreed, especially given his not so judging-friendly style. That said, Barboza's chin can be cracked.
                              Ohh yeah, I forgot Barboza lost a decision to MJ in Brazil.
                              Comment
                              • JIBBBY
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-10-09
                                • 83693

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Pinoy-T-X
                                I agree. However, if it's a close fight I don't see Daruish winning a decision in Brazil.
                                Maybe... I guess I can see that if Barboza stays on the outside and standing and out points Daruish round after round just out boxing him.. I think Barboza will be going after the finish though being that it is in Brazil though.. Wow the home fans.. Daruish has been dropped before also.. I think Barboza knows that..


                                If Daruish can counter Barboza being aggressive standing and get the timely take downs then I give the ground advantage to Daruish.. I give him the edge in ground control and perhaps even a sub win... I don't see Barboza taking down Daruish or even trying..

                                I'm leaning Barboza by KO for the strong play.. Maybe Daruish straight +150 or ITD prop as the hedge.. Not convinced this one goes to decision..

                                Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-06-17, 03:55 PM.
                                Comment
                                • JIBBBY
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-10-09
                                  • 83693

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                  Agreed, especially given his not so judging-friendly style. That said, Barboza's chin can be cracked.
                                  Daruish by KO, hmmm? I don't see it but maybe.. Barboza has been dropped before also.. Like I said this fight is a bit of tricky to bet IMO.. Still working it out in my head..



                                  Maybe the under rounds bet?



                                  Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-06-17, 03:49 PM.
                                  Comment
                                  • firekillex
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-18-13
                                    • 6420

                                    #18
                                    lol at belforts picture/body in the youtube video
                                    Comment
                                    • JIBBBY
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-10-09
                                      • 83693

                                      #19
                                      Liking Dirty Bird Tim Means against Alex Oliveira.. Hoping that line isn't too jacked..

                                      Comment
                                      • UncleChael
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-30-13
                                        • 3979

                                        #20
                                        Dariush will put a beat down on that boy, he might even sub him.
                                        Comment
                                        • firekillex
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 09-18-13
                                          • 6420

                                          #21
                                          excited to see where shogun is at actually , just noticed hes on the card...
                                          legend in brazil should be a fun fight
                                          Comment
                                          • JIBBBY
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-10-09
                                            • 83693

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by firekillex
                                            excited to see where shogun is at actually , just noticed hes on the card...
                                            legend in brazil should be a fun fight
                                            Gian Villante is a durable tough dude, I don't think this gonna be an easy fight for Shogun..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gian-Villante-42802

                                            Shogun is 35 years old now and not a spring chicken, not sure his best days aren't behind him in MMA already.. Still this fight is in Brazil so it's gonna be hard to bet against Shogun in this one..
                                            Comment
                                            • firekillex
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-18-13
                                              • 6420

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                              Gian Villante is a durable tough dude, I don't think this gonna be an easy fight for Shogun..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gian-Villante-42802

                                              Shogun is 35 years old now and not a spring chicken, not sure his best days aren't behind him in MMA already.. Still this fight is in Brazil so it's gonna be hard to bet against Shogun in this one..
                                              ill actually like Gian if hes +200 or more tbh
                                              Comment
                                              • JIBBBY
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-10-09
                                                • 83693

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by firekillex
                                                ill actually like Gian if hes +200 or more tbh
                                                Shogun fighting in his home Country of Brazil is probably something you don't wanna mess with I think..

                                                Good luck if you take GV, he's got a shot I guess if he can tap that Shogun chin that's starting to fade and let him down of late.. You know Shogun will be coming forward and GV will hold his ground..
                                                Comment
                                                • firekillex
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-18-13
                                                  • 6420

                                                  #25
                                                  depends on the odds, and i dont always look at the country where the fight is held unless i think its a split decision kind of fight where the home town fighter will typically win... I could see Gian getting him to the ground and grinding him out, Shogun hasnt looked great lately to say the least but hes still a legend and maybe his long layoff will help a bit...

                                                  just gotta wait for the odds to pop out +200 or more could have value for a small bet , Gian is probably training with Weidman all camp and theyre both hitting their peaks for upcoming fights which is also a benefit
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                    • 14140

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by firekillex
                                                    lol at belforts picture/body in the youtube video
                                                    Which one?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Hugo de Naranja
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 04-14-16
                                                      • 14140

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                      Daruish by KO, hmmm? I don't see it but maybe.. Barboza has been dropped before also.. Like I said this fight is a bit of tricky to bet IMO.. Still working it out in my head..



                                                      Maybe the under rounds bet?



                                                      Not sure. Will cap it and get back to you later.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-14-16
                                                        • 14140

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by firekillex
                                                        ill actually like Gian if hes +200 or more tbh
                                                        I'd be surprised if Gian is a big underdog here. Think the line opens (-120) each side.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Hugo de Naranja
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 04-14-16
                                                          • 14140

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by firekillex
                                                          depends on the odds, and i dont always look at the country where the fight is held unless i think its a split decision kind of fight where the home town fighter will typically win... I could see Gian getting him to the ground and grinding him out, Shogun hasnt looked great lately to say the least but hes still a legend and maybe his long layoff will help a bit...

                                                          just gotta wait for the odds to pop out +200 or more could have value for a small bet , Gian is probably training with Weidman all camp and theyre both hitting their peaks for upcoming fights which is also a benefit
                                                          Not impressed with Serra-Longo as a camp. Most of those guys are fade status for me.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Pinoy-T-X
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-28-12
                                                            • 2176

                                                            #30
                                                            So far three picks that I like
                                                            Gastelum
                                                            Barboza
                                                            Means
                                                            however, that's the majority of everybody's picks lol
                                                            Last edited by Pinoy-T-X; 03-06-17, 05:28 PM. Reason: Spelling mistake
                                                            Comment
                                                            • firekillex
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-18-13
                                                              • 6420

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                              Which one?
                                                              First post YouTube link
                                                              that belfort is long long gone... Gastelum ITD is an easy play here imo
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JIBBBY
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 12-10-09
                                                                • 83693

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by firekillex
                                                                First post YouTube link
                                                                that belfort is long long gone... Gastelum ITD is an easy play here imo
                                                                That's what I was thinking as well until I saw the -350.. Brutal.... The Gas KO prop when it comes out probably won't be much better, guessing -300 or so..

                                                                May have to get aggressive and try Gas round 1 finish instead... Or maybe just play the Under 1.5 at -165...

                                                                1009 Gastelum wins inside distance -350
                                                                UFC Fight Night 106 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1
                                                                Sat 3/11 1001 Vitor Belfort +340 o1½ +145
                                                                11:59PM 1002 Kelvin Gastelum -425 u1½ -165
                                                                Even a rejuvenated Vitor got rolled by Mousasi.. Did not look good in his last fight.. He's been KO'd in 3 of his last 4 fights.. Was fighting tough guys though.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Vitor-Belfort-156

                                                                Last edited by JIBBBY; 03-06-17, 05:59 PM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • firekillex
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-18-13
                                                                  • 6420

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Went fairly big -360 straight when I first seen the odds thinking it would go up...

                                                                  -350 for ITD is dogshit , happy I went straight right away when I seen it now , hopefully TRT belfort doesn't show up and get the KO here ... Gas should beast him out in all areas, I'm thinking round 2 tko
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • eligibletackle
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 12-20-11
                                                                    • 149

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I am taking a small flier on Vitor @ +340.

                                                                    Gastelum seems ridiculously pricey and I think a MW with quick hands could give him fits (who knows whether or not Vitor has them). I'm def not expecting vintage Vitor but I don't think he's as washed up as his past appearances make him out to be
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-14-16
                                                                      • 14140

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by firekillex
                                                                      gastelum all in
                                                                      barbosa should cash as well, hell have to avoid the takedowns and pick apart dariush from the outside with his lethal kick
                                                                      underrated solid fight at 55 though
                                                                      I think Gastelum will win but he gets hit with a LOT of counters, even in fights that he wins. Isn't it possible that Vitor could catch him with a big shot early? Given the price on Kelvin I don't think this is a great fight to bet big, despite Vitor being on the fade list for me.
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