UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum (March 11, 2017)

**JC2008** · 03-02-17, 09:58 PM

- This card looks just as good as this weekends, if not better!

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-03-17, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by JC2008

- This card looks just as good as this weekends, if not better!

UFC does all the Brazil cards big it seems

**Sanity Check** · 03-05-17, 03:15 PM

13 fights on the card.

With a brazilian in every fight.

Nice.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-05-17, 03:26 PM

I think Pepey vs. Bochniak is cancelled. Shame since Pepey fights are always wild and fun.

**Sanity Check** · 03-05-17, 04:56 PM

Max Griffin pulled out of his fight with Sergio Moraes & was replaced by someoene else.

That could be who you're thinking of.

6 days out from the event, odds are out later than normal.

I wonder if bookies are losing money on MMA & putting more time into their oddsmaking.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-05-17, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Max Griffin pulled out of his fight with Sergio Moraes & was replaced by someoene else.

That could be who you're thinking of.

6 days out from the event, odds are out later than normal.

I wonder if bookies are losing money on MMA & putting more time into their oddsmaking.

Yeah saw that too. But Pepey/Bochniak is also off

**firekillex** · 03-05-17, 10:27 PM

gastelum all in
barbosa should cash as well, hell have to avoid the takedowns and pick apart dariush from the outside with his lethal kick
underrated solid fight at 55 though

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-05-17, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

gastelum all in
barbosa should cash as well, hell have to avoid the takedowns and pick apart dariush from the outside with his lethal kick
underrated solid fight at 55 though

Gotta watch more tape on that one. I've typically underrated Dariush. Picked against him in his last 3 and he's 2-1

**CaptChaos145** · 03-05-17, 11:12 PM

Barbosa has really good TD defense. Dariush should attack hard and push the pace but Barboza is more polished on the feet. With that said Barboza is a tad Chinny. I think this is a risky fight to bet on. I can see either guy winning. Common opponent is Michael Johnson. Both guys eeked out close decisions over MJ.

Dariush is still getting better whereas Barbosa, although talented, really brings the same solid game with him.

Barbosa doesn't stop guys with his hands. He's a kicker and the best in the division at that one aspect. Slight lean Dariush with the plus money.

**firekillex** · 03-05-17, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Gotta watch more tape on that one. I've typically underrated Dariush. Picked against him in his last 3 and he's 2-1

i actually like dariush quiet a bit and have watched his career in the UFC , has a solid style to be a top 10 155er but i dont think he can crack into the top 5... I think Barbosa is top 5 quality and the style matchup favors him, Dariush is a great grappler and he has solid kicks, this will come down to if he can get Barbosa down and control him ... The standup will definitely go to Barbosa the faster , more technical and bigger guy.... The odds are actually pretty spot on here but anything under -200 i like Barbosa, i might play Barbosa by decision if the prop numbers are right

**JIBBBY** · 03-06-17, 12:00 PM

Gas by KO.. Vitor is done in the sport.. Meeting a guy with a granite chin too..

Edson Barboza/Daruish is a tricky fight to call.. Daruish is very well rounded and if he doesn't get clipped standing he probably wins this fight.. Still EB probably gets the KO, he's quicker and probably the better striker....

May play Daruish straight and hedge with the Barboza KO or ITD prop..

**Pinoy-T-X** · 03-06-17, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gas by KO.. Vitor is done in the sport.. Meeting a guy with a granite chin too..

Edson Barboza/Daruish is a tricky fight to call.. Daruish is very well rounded and if he doesn't get clipped standing he probably wins this fight.. Still EB probably gets the KO, he's quicker and probably the better striker....

May play Daruish straight and hedge with the Barboza KO or ITD prop..

I agree. However, if it's a close fight I don't see Daruish winning a decision in Brazil.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-06-17, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by Pinoy-T-X

I agree. However, if it's a close fight I don't see Daruish winning a decision in Brazil.

Agreed, especially given his not so judging-friendly style. That said, Barboza's chin can be cracked.

**Pinoy-T-X** · 03-06-17, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Agreed, especially given his not so judging-friendly style. That said, Barboza's chin can be cracked.

Ohh yeah, I forgot Barboza lost a decision to MJ in Brazil.

**JIBBBY** · 03-06-17, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Pinoy-T-X

I agree. However, if it's a close fight I don't see Daruish winning a decision in Brazil.

Maybe... I guess I can see that if Barboza stays on the outside and standing and out points Daruish round after round just out boxing him.. I think Barboza will be going after the finish though being that it is in Brazil though.. Wow the home fans.. Daruish has been dropped before also.. I think Barboza knows that..

If Daruish can counter Barboza being aggressive standing and get the timely take downs then I give the ground advantage to Daruish.. I give him the edge in ground control and perhaps even a sub win... I don't see Barboza taking down Daruish or even trying..

I'm leaning Barboza by KO for the strong play.. Maybe Daruish straight +150 or ITD prop as the hedge.. Not convinced this one goes to decision..

**JIBBBY** · 03-06-17, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Agreed, especially given his not so judging-friendly style. That said, Barboza's chin can be cracked.

Daruish by KO, hmmm? I don't see it but maybe.. Barboza has been dropped before also.. Like I said this fight is a bit of tricky to bet IMO.. Still working it out in my head..

Maybe the under rounds bet?

**firekillex** · 03-06-17, 03:40 PM

lol at belforts picture/body in the youtube video

**JIBBBY** · 03-06-17, 03:51 PM

Liking Dirty Bird Tim Means against Alex Oliveira.. Hoping that line isn't too jacked..

**UncleChael** · 03-06-17, 03:53 PM

Dariush will put a beat down on that boy, he might even sub him.

**firekillex** · 03-06-17, 04:08 PM

excited to see where shogun is at actually , just noticed hes on the card...
legend in brazil should be a fun fight

**JIBBBY** · 03-06-17, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

excited to see where shogun is at actually , just noticed hes on the card...
legend in brazil should be a fun fight

Gian Villante is a durable tough dude, I don't think this gonna be an easy fight for Shogun..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gian-Villante-42802

Shogun is 35 years old now and not a spring chicken, not sure his best days aren't behind him in MMA already.. Still this fight is in Brazil so it's gonna be hard to bet against Shogun in this one..

**firekillex** · 03-06-17, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gian Villante is a durable tough dude, I don't think this gonna be an easy fight for Shogun..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Gian-Villante-42802

Shogun is 35 years old now and not a spring chicken, not sure his best days aren't behind him in MMA already.. Still this fight is in Brazil so it's gonna be hard to bet against Shogun in this one..

ill actually like Gian if hes +200 or more tbh

**JIBBBY** · 03-06-17, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

ill actually like Gian if hes +200 or more tbh

Shogun fighting in his home Country of Brazil is probably something you don't wanna mess with I think..

Good luck if you take GV, he's got a shot I guess if he can tap that Shogun chin that's starting to fade and let him down of late.. You know Shogun will be coming forward and GV will hold his ground..

**firekillex** · 03-06-17, 04:57 PM

depends on the odds, and i dont always look at the country where the fight is held unless i think its a split decision kind of fight where the home town fighter will typically win... I could see Gian getting him to the ground and grinding him out, Shogun hasnt looked great lately to say the least but hes still a legend and maybe his long layoff will help a bit...

just gotta wait for the odds to pop out +200 or more could have value for a small bet , Gian is probably training with Weidman all camp and theyre both hitting their peaks for upcoming fights which is also a benefit

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-06-17, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

lol at belforts picture/body in the youtube video

Which one?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-06-17, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Daruish by KO, hmmm? I don't see it but maybe.. Barboza has been dropped before also.. Like I said this fight is a bit of tricky to bet IMO.. Still working it out in my head..

Maybe the under rounds bet?

Not sure. Will cap it and get back to you later.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-06-17, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

ill actually like Gian if hes +200 or more tbh

I'd be surprised if Gian is a big underdog here. Think the line opens (-120) each side.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-06-17, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

depends on the odds, and i dont always look at the country where the fight is held unless i think its a split decision kind of fight where the home town fighter will typically win... I could see Gian getting him to the ground and grinding him out, Shogun hasnt looked great lately to say the least but hes still a legend and maybe his long layoff will help a bit...

just gotta wait for the odds to pop out +200 or more could have value for a small bet , Gian is probably training with Weidman all camp and theyre both hitting their peaks for upcoming fights which is also a benefit

Not impressed with Serra-Longo as a camp. Most of those guys are fade status for me.

**Pinoy-T-X** · 03-06-17, 05:22 PM

So far three picks that I like
Gastelum
Barboza
Means
however, that's the majority of everybody's picks lol

**firekillex** · 03-06-17, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Which one?

First post YouTube link
that belfort is long long gone... Gastelum ITD is an easy play here imo

**JIBBBY** · 03-06-17, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

First post YouTube link
that belfort is long long gone... Gastelum ITD is an easy play here imo

That's what I was thinking as well until I saw the -350.. Brutal..

.. The Gas KO prop when it comes out probably won't be much better, guessing -300 or so..

May have to get aggressive and try Gas round 1 finish instead... Or maybe just play the Under 1.5 at -165...

1009

Gastelum wins inside distance

-350

UFC Fight Night 106 - Middleweight 5 rounds - Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste - Fortaleza, Brazil - FS1


Sat 3/11	1001 Vitor Belfort	+340	o1½ +145
11:59PM	1002 Kelvin Gastelum	-425	u1½ -165

Even a rejuvenated Vitor got rolled by Mousasi.. Did not look good in his last fight.. He's been KO'd in 3 of his last 4 fights.. Was fighting tough guys though.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Vitor-Belfort-156

**firekillex** · 03-06-17, 05:52 PM

Went fairly big -360 straight when I first seen the odds thinking it would go up...

-350 for ITD is dogshit , happy I went straight right away when I seen it now , hopefully TRT belfort doesn't show up and get the KO here ... Gas should beast him out in all areas, I'm thinking round 2 tko

**eligibletackle** · 03-06-17, 08:56 PM

I am taking a small flier on Vitor @ +340.

Gastelum seems ridiculously pricey and I think a MW with quick hands could give him fits (who knows whether or not Vitor has them). I'm def not expecting vintage Vitor but I don't think he's as washed up as his past appearances make him out to be

**Hugo de Naranja** · 03-06-17, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by firekillex

gastelum all in
barbosa should cash as well, hell have to avoid the takedowns and pick apart dariush from the outside with his lethal kick
underrated solid fight at 55 though

I think Gastelum will win but he gets hit with a LOT of counters, even in fights that he wins. Isn't it possible that Vitor could catch him with a big shot early? Given the price on Kelvin I don't think this is a great fight to bet big, despite Vitor being on the fade list for me.