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I do agree about cerrones gameplan. Silly stuff, but this is a 5 round fight. I still believe, or hope that grinding on diaz for so long will not be successful at the end. Maybe im wrong. but that type of strategy drains a fighter completely, i havent seen miller do that against a high caliber fighter yet.
I thought I was, but then I keep thinking of him dropping for low-percentage subs that were never going to get there against Henderson. I can see him letting Nate get top position in the same manner.Originally Posted by fosho14
This will be a very telling and exposing fight for both parties. Usually I don't buy the excuses that fighters make after they lose fights but miller has always seemed like a genuine person and apparently he had a whole host of health problems going into the bendo bout (mono + kidney problems). Who ever wins this fight is more than ready to fight for the title IMO.
Adding:
KO of the night
0.82 units on J.Dodson @ 19 to win - 14.76 units
0.25 units on @ 19 to win - 5.5 units
0.55 units on Lavar J @ 7.0 to win - 3.3 units
Fight of the night
3.85 units on Miller/diaz, Lineker @ 3.9 to win 11.16 units
added - 20 units on diaz to win - 10 units
Good decision on Diaz bro...he's clearly improved a lot more than I and many others expected!
thanks broh. that win over cerrone was amazing. i should probably even added more. but, i lost huuuuuuuuuuuge amounts on almost all other bets. before the diaz fight i was in shock. alll ******* bets were going straight to hell. i just decided after losing 40-50 units that i just had to gamble on nate. and when i saw miller didnt have any answer, i just went all in. i think i lost 15 units, but i have never been more happy. this could have been the worst night ever.
Diaz surprised the hell out of me with his TDD and being the first person to not only submit miller but finish him period. Great job bjpenn! I didn't forecast this fight playing out the way it did at all.
14 units on dodson and denis @ 1.70 to win - 9.6units -(Dodsons striking is superb, mixed with athletic abilities from another planet, while denis has a marked striking advantage over delorme. Even though delorme is better on the ground, i think denis ground game is good enough to survive whatever delorme has to offer.
6 units on Nate diaz @ 3.0 to win - 12 units -I think people on this forum, and generally overlooking nate diaz a bit. His wrestling disadvantage imo will not be THAT significant in this fight as it is a 5 rounder. Miller is the one that has to cover distance, get inside, go for takedowns. If he is not capable of doing this for at least three rounds, he will lose this fight. I rather trust in diaz skills as i have seen him destroy gomi and other fights from the outside, and kick cerrones butt than trust in miller coming in with the perfect gameplan. Also, i get 3.0 when the odds imo should be even. If we compare millers and diaz record imo nate diaz comes out on top. Records doesnt always tell the truth, that is not my point. But if you look behind diaz losses, very few is actual losses. IMO he beat maynard, that makes two wins against a guy miller lost to. MMA math is not my point, but Miller has a tendency to loose against top 10s (frankie, benson,maynard, bocek) while nate diaz have done a better job in his fight with the best. Anyway, Nate beat cowboy handily which is a much more important win, than any of millers recents win. And that win just happened.It tells me that nate diaz is more likely to win on the feet where i think most of this fight will happen.
5 units on Paul harrys sub @ 2.0 to win 5 units
8 units on lineker, melendez @ 1.70 to win - 5.5 units
Props
2 units on miller unanim. decision, palhares decision @ 9.0 to win - 17 units
1.25 units on miller split dec @ 6.73 to win - 7.5 units
1.25 units diaz dec @ 5.2 to win - 5.9 units
0.60 units on diaz split dec @ 17 to win - 9.60 units
1.25 units on pascal, coolish @ 6.30 to win - 7.50
ufc on fox 3
Results:
-12, 97 units
Another losing night it seems. Looking back on the first bet i see an error i have done previously. The ultimate fighter contestants seems to be quite difficult to asess with both fighters on my parlay going straight to hell. I cant even remember last time this happened, but it doesnt matter, it was a risky bet, and i got what i deserved. Rolando and gaudinot proved to be better than i expected, and this serves as a reminder how unpredictable and difficult it is at least for me to establish how good these fighters really are. It seems like many fighters rapidly improve after their first fight in the ufc. If it is due to switching camps, trainers, training partners i dont know, but they change. I need to take this into consideration , and not fall in love with a skillset like nick denis, and rather put money on a fighter that have been in the octagon several times, and not just blindly believe the easy KO is going to come. Dodson won, but not in impressive fashion, injured hand?
After putting 6 units on diaz, i wagered another 20 units on diaz on bookmakers livebetting section. i was down 30-40 units before that fight, and it was pretty much my only hope. After looking how diaz did standing up, i decided to go in. My first thought after seeing diaz beat cerrone, was wow. If anyone ever clowning anyone in the top 10 in the light weight division, he surely do not deserve to be a +200 underdog.
The paul harris bet i think was justified, i didnt have time to include belcher tko @ 8.0 unibet:
Event Innsats Odds Resultat Utbetaling UFC on Fox 3 - Palhares, R vs Belcher, A
Vinner
Vinnermetode
Dine veddemål: Singel, Belcher by KO, TKO or DQkr 150,00 8,00 Belcher by KO, TKO or DQ kr 1 200,00
but i cashed back 10 units, which made my overall belcher/paul harris bet go 5 units in profit. Belcher tko is not included in the overall result.
Great hit with tht Belcher TKO play....I was so close to playing Belcher by TKO/KO hedged with Palhares on sportbet but thought I had too many plays already so cancelled it!
I was very close to not playing it as well as i had soooo many bets. I didnt see belcher winning a decision, so i landed on the tko play. I usually like to hedge all big plays or plays in general if i can get a good price. 1.5 unit on belcher gave 10 units. he gave macdonald fits, that alone should have made me put more on him just straight up. Belchers said in the post fight interview with helwani that he had drilled leg locks for 8 weeks. if i had known that pre fight.....argh.
Weiird that palhares got caught in guard position.
Think it was a mental bomb as usual from him. Palhares said he's been working with a psychologist before the fight, but seemed he just gave up after all those attempts...was mentally destroyed by Belcher's resilience!
Nah, man belchers just that good. He did everything perfectly to a T. I think we gotta give respect where respect is due, and it was not palhares so much that choked but belcher who was just simply the better fighter who shined against the worse fighter. Palhares was on his game but it wasn't enough. Very similar to the miller fight, Diaz was just on a different level despite fighting Jim Miller at 100% and healthy. Outcomes of both fights were very surprising though I must say.
The thing about palhares is he's a one trick pony (for the most part) and you simply can't be that one dimensional in a sport this unforgiving.
His striking isnt all that bad. I just think he doesnt fight up to his abilities. I think he still needs to work with a psychologist. Like V said, he might have thought "what the hell do i got for this guy that scramble out of all my submissions". A good fighter would have had the necessary patience, waited for the right moment, and tried again,while palhares have shown twice (marquart, belcher) that he breaks down if he doesnt get the submission quickly. He seems like a little child mentally. stops before the judge stops the fight(miller), holding on the a persons leg even when the ref clearly tries to stop it(Linhares) etc. He def has some issues.
Adding:
UFC 148
3.5 units on Cung Lee @ 4.01 to win - 10.5 units
May put franklin by decision in a parlay to hedge near fight time.
Adding:
Korean Z vs Poirier - May 15th
2 units on Korean Zombie @ 3.85 to win - 5,7 units
1.1 units on Jeremy Stephans decision @ 6.0 to win - 5.5 units
Adding :
Tuf 15/Bellator 68
3 units on Justin Lawrence, Daniel strauss @ 3.06 to win - 6.18 units
Result since mars 2012 :
23.38 Units+
Adding :
2,5 units on travis marx @ 3.2 to win - 5,5 units
Tuf 15/Bellator 68
3 units on Justin Lawrence, Daniel strauss @ 3.06 to win - 6.18 units
2,5 units on travis marx @ 3.2 to win - 5,5 units
Event result :-5.5 units
Total results on this blog : 17.88 units +
Adding :
10 units on Chang sung Jung @ 3.80 to win - 28 units
This play will very likely be hedged by betting dustin poirier inside distance prop before the match start OR while the match is on(live on bookmaker). Preferably in a situation where chang sung jung seems to do good for best available prop.
Adding :
1 unit on Josh Barnett @ 6.0 (expekt 6-7 month ago) to win - 5 units
5 units on Cormier @ 2.08 to win - 5,4 units
adding :
13.09 units on Cerrone, Melendez @ 1.68 to win - 9.95 units
1.65 unit on Jeremy stephans round 1 @ 8.50 to win - 12 units
Adding:
14 units on Cisco Rivera @ 1.59 to win - 8.8 units
5 units on Marcus L. @ 2.60 to win - 8 units
Great shouts...Cisco could be my biggest play ever. Was hoping to get him at better than -200 though.
Im with you on these!
I fade Cody
I dont think that will happen tho. I havent found so much tape of alex soto, and what i have seen, isnt very impressive. I think the public pretty much agree with me, fading soto while admire ciscos viciousness. His KOs is so brutal, i almost get a little sick inside to watch.
Cody has improved a lot, and he may be the better all around fighter without me know. These ultimate fighter guys, improse so quick these days. However, i dont think he should be that big of a favourite considering the stylistic matchup, with a very talented wrestler that may be very difficult to get to the ground. I will probably hedge a little bit here, either live, or cody by sub pre fight.
yeah will only get worse.
5dimes usually opens with shittier odds, if they see action on a line on bookmaker. Probably opens up at 1.45 at 5dimes, so need to be quick.
Never know when the fuuck they are gonna release them tho and Im seriously struggling to stay awake here!
addding :
9 units Tom Lawler @ 1.49 to win 4.4 units
Havent reallly breaken down this fight already, but i have a feeling that Mcdonald isnt going to win other than by sub max. Fighters that recently have lost a fights usually comes in a bit sharper. While macdonal also have lost his last fight, i dont believe he has the will or the drive to win especially if this fight doesnt go his way from the beginning.
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