BJPENNs thread

[Hannibal]

One guy doing all the damage standing..and one guy humping out the end of each round on top

Iots of judges can barely tell who has the edge standing...all they usually see is who throws more punches and if someone gets dropped

[NunyaBidness]

Iots of judges can barely tell who has the edge standing...all they usually see is who throws more punches and if someone gets dropped

This is very true, and what's strange is it seems to be the judges who come from boxing who are the worst at it.

[Hannibal]

btw, bellator streams in HD on spike.com
in case you were having trouble watching

[Hannibal]

This is very true, and what's strange is it seems to be the judges who come from boxing who are the worst at it.

and boxing is actually harder to score too!! its much harder to see who is landing the cleaner punches with those big gloves and smaller reaction from getting hit

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON FUEL 2
4 units on Siyar Bahadurzada @ 2.75 to win 7 units
3 units on Brian Stann @ 1.40 to win 1.2 units

I may arb out of the first bet as i expekt significant line movement towards the fight. Siyar should be athletic enough to keep the fight standing where he possibly will send paulo thiago into oblivion.

[PunisherIND]

UFC ON FUEL 2
4 units on Siyar Bahadurzada @ 2.75 to win 7 units

euro book?

[Vaughany]

Unibet

[bjpenn85]

Unitbet - 2.60
blueesq - 2.75

[bjpenn85]

Brian stann - 1.40 unibet, maybe a month ago since i wagered that

[bjpenn85]

adding :

5 units on Gustaffson 1.46 - 2.3 units

[Vitooch]

Wasn't expecting Siyar to be that big of a dog. All over this play.

[MMAbetMASTA]

screw you guys and your euro books!!!! I want a f'ing unitbet account! I swear some people on here get the best openers ever... That is a steal on siyar, I was keeping my eyes open and hoping to get him as a nice dog too, prob be way less favorable by the time it gets on my book. Nice play

[bjpenn85]

Im sorry guys. Sometimes we euro guys feel the same way with openers on bodog or sportsbook.

[bjpenn85]

Bellator 64

3 units on Marlon Sandro @ 1.50 to win - 1.5 unit
0.6 unit on Douglas Lima @ 4.0 to win - 1.8 unit

- Sandro should win this fight by outstriking bezerra. Its not likely that bezerra will drag sandro to the ground or outstrike him on the feet.
- D.Lima has a legit shot to KO a very one dimensional askren. I have actually been waiting for this moment for a while. Wrestling will only take you this far. At +300 Douglas lima represent a ludicrous value. Its a 50 50 fight.

[bjpenn85]

adding:

4 units on Marlon Sandro @ 1.61 to win - 2.4 units

[bjpenn85]

Bellator 64

7 units on Marlon Sandro = 3,9 units - 0,6 unit on Lima = +3.3units

Total winnings :
+6.8 units

[bjpenn85]

UFC ON FUEL 2


3 units on J.Maguire to win - 2,7 units
5 units on Gustaffson to win - 2,2 units
3 units on Brian stann to win - 1 unit
-Arbed out of the siyar bet after getting quite gun shy, so 6 units profit if siyar wins, money back if the croocked cop takes it.

May be adding parlays and prop bets tomorrow, now, where you at ladys?

[Vaughany]

Good stuff BJ, also arbed out of my Siyar play... took him at +175 and +200 and arbed with P.Thiago at -147, looking at 6.7 units profit if The Killer wins. GypsyJiuJitsu FTW!

[bjpenn85]

I really felt the siyar wibe in the beginning. But as time has went by, i have started to envision thiago getting takedowns and dominant positions on the ground etc. I just couldnt risk 20 units on a guy i actually havent seen perform at the highest level against a very solid grappler in thiago. I think siiyar need the KO to win. I feel thiago have a decent chance to win by a hook, decision or submission. A bet on siyar is therefor not justified. Im thinking of adding more on maguire, as i only see johnson winning by tko.

fight of the night candidates seems impossible to hit on this card btw, but sub of the night seems promising...

[bjpenn85]

6 units profit - is really 1, 20 unit as i dont use Vs unit anymore. typo

[Vaughany]

I really felt the siyar wibe in the beginning. But as time has went by, i have started to envision thiago getting takedowns and dominant positions on the ground etc. I just couldnt risk 20 units on a guy i actually havent seen perform at the highest level against a very solid grappler in thiago. I think siiyar need the KO to win. I feel thiago have a decent chance to win by a hook, decision or submission. A bet on siyar is therefor not justified. Im thinking of adding more on maguire, as i only see johnson winning by tko.

fight of the night candidates seems impossible to hit on this card btw, but sub of the night seems promising...

Yeah Page/Pickett FOTN is my favourite but like u say could be any one of 4 or 5 fights. Not sure about SOTN...I think DeBlass, P.Thiago, Pickett, and Maguire all have a reasonable chance. KOTN gotta be thinking Stann or Gustaffsson

[bjpenn85]

Agreed!!

[bjpenn85]

+ 7.1 unit. I also added stann KO, and brad pickett, but those will off course as usual not be included. So far not a single pick have failed. Huge mistake to betray the siniyar bet seen in retrospect, which would have given me another 6 units. Still a asteroid solid night.

This run i have had lately is very unlikely to sustain, but what a ******* awesome feeling it is. Hope everyone else did good.

Total winnings since 14th of march 2012 : +13.9 Units = 1263 americans (baby)

[Beelzebubzy]

Great job bj

[bjpenn85]

thanks buddy!

[bjpenn85]

UFC 145

For this event i have decided to switch back to my old ways in terms of listing a unit back to 10 pound as big V. The reason for this is simply that i find it much quicker to calculate plus it looks way cooler. From now on i will also going to add prop bets so that those that follow can appreciate what i am actually betting. UFC 145 and were rollllliiiiiiiinnnnnn :

1. 15 units on Brendan S. @ 1.40 to win - 6 U
0.66 units on B.Roth sub @ 13.75 - 8.81 U
0.66 units on B.Roth dec @ 13.68 - 8,4 U

The most likely outcome i think, if rothwell wins, is by tko. The reason why i have chose to hedge with sub and dec is clearly the big return for a very small investment. An alternativ bet is to just bet shaub dec. B.Roth is quite tough , although very submissive, and can absorb damage like no other, so this fight may very well end up being a 3 rounder looking like a bondage affair from pornhub.

As i lost nearly 600 us last time shaub fought this will be my very last bet on this supposedly talent if he loses this fight. Come on shaub, no bullshit this time around.

2. 5 units on Njokuani, jones inside distance @ 2.17 to win - 6.43 U
1 unit on Jones dec @ 6.0 to win 5 U

I actually met Njokuani in vegas at mgm during lesnar vs overeem. Seems like a funny and cool dude, thus, he deserves to be betted on? When i met him, i lied and told him i had money on him, and begged him to not let me down. I actually had a money on castillo but no need for him to know that. The poor guy looked like a skeleton and told me that he felt miserable, but this time i will give him a shot. If he can handle barboza, he certainly can handle makdessi.

3. 1,65 unit on Torres dec, Rory Mcdonald sub @ 7.90 to win - 11,38 U

4 6 units .R.barado, Jones @ 1.77 to win - 4.5 U

[Hannibal]

We have a lot of similar plays.
I have schaub dec
Njok
Jones itd
Rory submission

[bjpenn85]

adding:

25 units on Shaub, Jones, Macdonald @ 1.95 to win 23.75 U
1.50 units on rothwell round 1 @ 7.25 to win back 9 U
1.50 on Mills TKO @ 13 to win back 20 units
2 units on evans inside distance to win back 11,5 U

Occasionally i play a triple. Under these circumstancec i feel like all the favorites should cruise into victory. Usually obstacles occur, but in the end i dont think anyone of these three guys ends up on the losing end. Jones is the best fighter the world have seen, rory the biggest talent in the world looking past jon jones that obviously posses anatomical advantages that nearly can be defined as unfair, and last but not least an athletic prospect on the rise that is being fed a sloppy brawler without credentials beyond taking damage. These type of fights just win you money betting on in the long run IMO. thats all for no. am out of this joint niggaz

[PunisherIND]

adding:

25 units on Shaub, Jones, Macdonald @ 1.95 to win 23.75 U
1.50 units on rothwell round 1 @ 7.25 to win back 9 U
1.50 on Mills TKO @ 13 to win back 20 units
2 units on evans inside distance to win back 11,5 U

Occasionally i play a triple. Under these circumstancec i feel like all the favorites should cruise into victory. Usually obstacles occur, but in the end i dont think anyone of these three guys ends up on the losing end. Jones is the best fighter the world have seen, rory the biggest talent in the world looking past jon jones that obviously posses anatomical advantages that nearly can be defined as unfair, and last but not least an athletic prospect on the rise that is being fed a sloppy brawler without credentials beyond taking damage. These type of fights just win you money betting on in the long run IMO. thats all for no. am out of this joint niggaz

i like youre style, bjpenn.

[bjpenn85]

i was thinking the same actually. haha. just joking. thanks dude.

[bjpenn85]

Total loss ufc 145 : -33.15 units

Status since march 2012: 36, 35 units

Horrible horrible picking Brendans faulty chin. Last time i will every play him for sure. Last time i had a considerable loss was actually when brendan lost to big nog. One would think i learned my lesson then, but no.

[bjpenn85]

UFC on FOX 3

14 units on dodson and denis @ 1.70 to win - 9.6units -(Dodsons striking is superb, mixed with athletic abilities from another planet, while denis has a marked striking advantage over delorme. Even though delorme is better on the ground, i think denis ground game is good enough to survive whatever delorme has to offer.
6 units on Nate diaz @ 3.0 to win - 12 units -I think people on this forum, and generally overlooking nate diaz a bit. His wrestling disadvantage imo will not be THAT significant in this fight as it is a 5 rounder. Miller is the one that has to cover distance, get inside, go for takedowns. If he is not capable of doing this for at least three rounds, he will lose this fight. I rather trust in diaz skills as i have seen him destroy gomi and other fights from the outside, and kick cerrones butt than trust in miller coming in with the perfect gameplan. Also, i get 3.0 when the odds imo should be even. If we compare millers and diaz record imo nate diaz comes out on top. Records doesnt always tell the truth, that is not my point. But if you look behind diaz losses, very few is actual losses. IMO he beat maynard, that makes two wins against a guy miller lost to. MMA math is not my point, but Miller has a tendency to loose against top 10s (frankie, benson,maynard, bocek) while nate diaz have done a better job in his fight with the best. Anyway, Nate beat cowboy handily which is a much more important win, than any of millers recents win. And that win just happened.It tells me that nate diaz is more likely to win on the feet where i think most of this fight will happen.

5 units on Paul harrys sub @ 2.0 to win 5 units

8 units on lineker, melendez @ 1.70 to win - 5.5 units

Props

2 units on miller unanim. decision, palhares decision @ 9.0 to win - 17 units
1.25 units on miller split dec @ 6.73 to win - 7.5 units
1.25 units diaz dec @ 5.2 to win - 5.9 units
0.60 units on diaz split dec @ 17 to win - 9.60 units
1.25 units on pascal, coolish @ 6.30 to win - 7.50

[fosho14]

UFC on FOX 3

Anyway, Nate beat cowboy handily which is a much more important win, than any of millers recents win. And that win just happened.It tells me that nate diaz is more likely to win on the feet where i think most of this fight will happen.

There is no denying that cowboy is a talented fighter, but did cowboy go for 1 takedown the entire fight? Do you think diaz will be able to stuff enough of miller's takedowns to pick him apart on the feet? I'm not completely discounting diaz but these are some important questions you must ask yourself and take into account.

[Vaughany]

There is no denying that cowboy is a talented fighter, but did cowboy go for 1 takedown the entire fight? Do you think diaz will be able to stuff enough of miller's takedowns to pick him apart on the feet? I'm not completely discounting diaz but these are some important questions you must ask yourself and take into account.

yeah Miller has the benefit of seeing the blueprint of how not to fight against a Diaz brother! Cerrone has admitted it since tht Diaz got in to his head and brought him in to his world (which was fighting dumb!). Miller wont stand there trading for 25 minutes...aside from take-downs he'll also look to rough Diaz up against the cage and grind on him. Cant knock a play on Diaz at these odds, although I dont think it is as close as a coin flip I do agree that Miller shouldnt be a -200 to -225 favourite

[fosho14]

I'm extremely confident in miller winning this fight