BJPENNs thread

**PunisherIND** · 03-14-12, 06:58 PM

bj, looking forward to your picks my man. so what are you seeing in rogers? quite frankly i dont see him offering much besides the chance of a 1 punch ko. i think more likely he gets taken down and quickly submitted. he has also shown to gas pretty quickly.

**bjpenn85** · 03-14-12, 07:57 PM

He is quick, strong and athletic and tuf. The negatives are that he may gas and get taken down and submitted as you said. But Vianna in my opinion isnt the guy to take him down. I think Vianna is overrated. He won against sam in a very controversial split decision in a fight i scored to Alvey, which isnt a world beater. He didnt impress me at all against schlemenko either, but he Koed Bryan Baker. Would he win against Baker if the fight went the distance? Probably not. So why is he even the fav against Rogers, in my opinion, mostly because of the KO fluke against Baker. That being said this is bellator, and any thing can happen. Betting on bellator fights imo should be done with caution as we dont have a lot of material to make accurate assumptions and predictions compared to the ufc. On the flip side, there are many mismatches in bellator that seems less frequent in the ufc now a days . Usually, i dont even consider large wagers in bellator, especially not when the fighter i go against have the ground advantage. But this fight smells upset alert long way. The brutal KO power of Rogers, the quickness and the ability to capitalize when the opponent is hurt really impresses me. The fight agains schlemenko was quite even as i see it until a beautiful timed knee or a kick, i cant really remember, that changed the whole fight early in round 2. schlemnko vs rogers was a war, while shlemenko seemed to focus on winning and just crusing into victory against vianna in the final. The fact that schlemenko finished rogers may reflect the odds in favor of vianna, but in reality it shouldnt. Comparing both fighters performance against schlemenko i favor rogers even though he lost by tko. Rogers at least showed ability to win, while vianna as far as i remember didnt, at all.

If this fight stays standing, i think it will be over within the first round. I still consider this as a kind of a risky bet, so there is a chance i buy back if i get a bad feeling.

**Kaladarus** · 03-14-12, 08:09 PM

With you on Rogers for a small play here. How big of a bet is 2 units for you? Like is it a small play?

**PunisherIND** · 03-14-12, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

The fact that schlemenko finished rogers may reflect the odds in favor of vianna, but in reality it shouldnt. Comparing both fighters performance against schlemenko i favor rogers even though he lost by tko. Rogers at least showed ability to win, while vianna as far as i remember didnt, at all.

i think you may have a point here.

**Hannibal** · 03-14-12, 09:51 PM

fck it... laid down $100 to win almost $300
rogers/santos/falcao

**BIGDAY** · 03-14-12, 09:59 PM

Rock on BJ!!! Best of luck pal.

**bjpenn85** · 03-15-12, 06:07 AM

Prior i used big Vs unit (10 pound a unit). Lately my bankroll have improved a bit so i have adjusted it.

100 dollars is now 1 unit, so my bet equals approx 2% of my bankroll.

**bjpenn85** · 03-15-12, 06:08 AM

Thank you Bigday! I will continue rocking the free world!

**sirchadwick1** · 03-15-12, 07:08 AM

Tailing on Rogers. I like his chances in this one and figured Vianna would only be a slight fav.

**Vaughany** · 03-15-12, 07:14 AM

Gd to see u with a thread BJ

**bjpenn85** · 03-15-12, 07:31 AM

Cheers, and how was cancun?

**caveira** · 03-15-12, 10:29 PM

Good lucky BJ (my favorite fighter ever) Hope you make a lot of money

**Vaughany** · 03-16-12, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Cheers, and how was cancun?

Yeah was awesome cheers....back at work today and is proving to be a big struggle after a week of partying! Some of the ladies out there were incredible...hardly saw any fatties!

**illmatick** · 03-16-12, 02:12 PM

nice number. I'm on Rogers as well at +140-- might arb if Vianna keeps moving

**bjpenn85** · 03-16-12, 03:47 PM

Nice Ill. I have decidid to let it ride.

**illmatick** · 03-16-12, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Nice Ill. I have decidid to let it ride.

Same.

Pretty much what i figured, Vianna's clinch attempts against Alexander were weak.

**Vaughany** · 03-16-12, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Hello boys and girls. I have contemplating starting my own thread for a while, i am now done contemplating.
Feel free to comment and criticise my work at any given time . Bellator 61, here we go.

Bellator 61

2 units on Brian Rogers, Bookmaker @ 2.45 to win - 2.9 units

Solid start to the thread

**bjpenn85** · 03-16-12, 08:45 PM

Woho. Got like 39 in fever right now, sure helped tho.

**bjpenn85** · 03-17-12, 04:42 AM

+2.9 units up, without any hurdles for Cleveland Ohio.

**bjpenn85** · 03-21-12, 06:39 PM

Bellator 62

1 unit on Tirloni to win 1.65 unit

**Hannibal** · 03-22-12, 11:40 AM

Tailed for some action and because I love you
But I'm not sure if tirloni can win...he will be on his back a lot and you can't count on high level bjj to neutralize high level judo

**Hannibal** · 03-22-12, 11:44 AM

i'm also not a fan of guys with their name tattooed on them lol

**bjpenn85** · 03-22-12, 12:12 PM

I agree. I have now pussied out of the bet. I think it might be a bit to early for him. I would like to see him win at least one fight in the big leagues. Michel might have an easier path to win.

**bjpenn85** · 03-22-12, 12:24 PM

adding:

1 unit on Thiago michel @ 2.55 to win 1.55 unit

**Hannibal** · 03-22-12, 12:33 PM

dude im tailing you on michel too
dont fkn tell me you're pussying about again man!!! lol after i tail you bro

**bjpenn85** · 03-22-12, 12:48 PM

Haha . If michel can stand upright, this fight should be his. . Still a better bet than tirloni i think. Hawn is such a beast and a fast learner.

**Hannibal** · 03-22-12, 10:18 PM

maxed stephens/cerrone to go distance at +110
both guys are tough as fkkk. are people thinking stephens might get tapped and cerrone might get ko'd? i really dont see it
also made a play on torres/macdonald to go distance at -195

was gonna play distance for miller/diaz at -185 too but i realized i was getting trigger happy haha
sorry if hijacking your thread

**Vaughany** · 03-23-12, 03:46 AM

Originally posted by Hannibal

maxed stephens/cerrone to go distance at +110
both guys are tough as fkkk. are people thinking stephens might get tapped and cerrone might get ko'd? i really dont see it
also made a play on torres/macdonald to go distance at -195

was gonna play distance for miller/diaz at -185 too but i realized i was getting trigger happy haha
sorry if hijacking your thread

Yeah maxed the Cerrone distance as well. Dont see either getting TKO'd, only chance is Cerrone being smart and going for the sub like he did against Paul Kelly. Stephens will probably bait him in to a stand-up war tho, a Carlos Condit "dog fight"!

**Hannibal** · 03-23-12, 10:50 AM

Man I'm still hurting on that condit fight. You were right all along man..
And I bought into that dogfight bullshit

**Hannibal** · 03-23-12, 09:26 PM

fair enough.. tirloni was winning before that punch
handled the clinch pretty well and controlled the stand up
its lovely to see someone work the thai collar so effectively...the elbows created enough distance so hawn couldnt wrap his arms all the way around

**bjpenn85** · 03-24-12, 04:58 AM

1.65 unit +. I havent seen this fight yet, but i read that bloodyelbow.com scored the fight to nazare. Nothing makes me happier than an unwarranted win. I also had bets on prindle, woodard and hawn, but these will of course not be included as i didnt post them in time.

Total : 4.55 U +

**NunyaBidness** · 03-24-12, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

1.65 unit +. I havent seen this fight yet, but i read that bloodyelbow.com scored the fight to nazare. Nothing makes me happier than an unwarranted win. I also had bets on prindle, woodard and hawn, but these will of course not be included as i didnt post them in time.

Total : 4.55 U +

Lots of other places scored it Michel. It was a very close fight. Nothing would've surprised me when they read the cards.

**bjpenn85** · 03-24-12, 11:12 AM

Who won in your opinion?

**NunyaBidness** · 03-24-12, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Who won in your opinion?

I thought Michel won, but thought it was more likely than Nazare would get the nod. But, I had money on Michel so that could be a factor.