Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread
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firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#176Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#180First of all, i dont think Camozzi will get finished on the ground or standing. Theres a small chance obviously that leites will get this to the ground, grind out a dec or get a late sub but i doubt camozzi will be taken down. Leites takedowns are not good enough. Secondly, standing up, this isnt a landslide for either fighter. Thales Leites probably got a bit more power and better technique, but he doesnt throw as much, and he isnt as aggressive as Camozzi. Camozzi is in your face and he takes the center of the octagon, and he is improving to the extent i believe the difference between leites skills and camozzi isnt significant in a standup fight. I cap the fight more like +130/120- range. I will be suprised if the line doesnt finally end up there.Comment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#181First of all, i dont think Camozzi will get finished on the ground or standing. Theres a small chance obviously that leites will get this to the ground, grind out a dec or get a late sub but i doubt camozzi will be taken down. Leites takedowns are not good enough. Secondly, standing up, this isnt a landslide for either fighter. Thales Leites probably got a bit more power and better technique, but he doesnt throw as much, and he isnt as aggressive as Camozzi. Camozzi is in your face and he takes the center of the octagon, and he is improving to the extent i believe the difference between leites skills and camozzi isnt significant in a standup fight. I cap the fight more like +130/120- range. I will be suprised if the line doesnt finally end up there.
Hmm makes sense so you like the dog money, I agree leites will probably not get him down unless it's in a scramble and he ends up ontop, I see this contest being on the feet mostly and Thales slightly outpointing camozzi throuh 3 rounds, camozzi is tough so I don't see him getting finished but I'm not sure he's on the same level as Thales here , he's a middling average middleweight and leites is top 10 material... The + money gives some value , I'll watch the line movement see where things goComment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#184Hmm makes sense so you like the dog money, I agree leites will probably not get him down unless it's in a scramble and he ends up ontop, I see this contest being on the feet mostly and Thales slightly outpointing camozzi throuh 3 rounds, camozzi is tough so I don't see him getting finished but I'm not sure he's on the same level as Thales here , he's a middling average middleweight and leites is top 10 material... The + money gives some value , I'll watch the line movement see where things goComment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#185the vitor miranda fight impressed me , but camozzi is 5/5 in his last 10 fights... 2 losses coming from jacare are understandable though but he has shown that he can be subbed and leites is a beast on the ground.. the over for this fight could have some value as well?Comment -
Rich BenjaminsSBR Wise Guy
- 12-15-15
- 831
#186I put money on Bermudez already. Surprised the line isn't -300 or more for Bermudez. Rony Jason hasn't been very impressive.Comment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#187agreed one of the best locks ive seen all year imo, bermudez is a top level fighter , rony jason is average at best. Barring some lucky ko or sub bermudez should absolutely roll over jason here -210 is a stealComment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#188the vitor miranda fight impressed me , but camozzi is 5/5 in his last 10 fights... 2 losses coming from jacare are understandable though but he has shown that he can be subbed and leites is a beast on the ground.. the over for this fight could have some value as well?Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-01-16, 12:34 PM.Comment -
Ty$SBR MVP
- 03-20-16
- 1241
#189Camozzi wins this fight prolly by DECComment -
firekillexSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-18-13
- 6420
#190
60% decision leites
20% sub leites
20% camozzi decision or win
thats where im capping it atComment -
SuggartownSBR Wise Guy
- 10-06-13
- 565
#191Cowboy vs Nate would be funComment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#1935 losses by sub means youre susceptible to getting submitted imo, leites has 15 submission victories , 55% of his wins.. just because you can be subbed doesnt mean you will everytime in a 3 round fight its tough, just stating for prop bet purposes leites by sub could have value , i still see him winning a decision though for the most likely path of victory..
60% decision leites
20% sub leites
20% camozzi decision or win
thats where im capping it atComment -
Rich BenjaminsSBR Wise Guy
- 12-15-15
- 831
#194I actually like the Camozzi bet. He seems to have a renewed vigor for the game and could likely pull off the upset.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#196Adding:
7.5 units on Cub Swanson @ 1.33 to win - 2.4 unitsComment -
Alex HartSBR High Roller
- 07-13-15
- 177
#197How are you feeling about Bermudez Bj?Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#198Dennis Bermudez should win comfortably. But you got to have that Jason inside distance prop because of Bermudez chin. To hedge with Jason round 1 isnt enough IMO. You need to have at least -200 or better to play Bermudez straight. So for me its a pass currently.
If you really like another fighter on the card you can make Bermudez the last leg of a parlay, but with jason inside distance. I would be surprised to see Jasin win a dec, because Bermudez usually wins until the point in the fight where he gets rocked and then finished by strikes or submitted.Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-04-16, 09:39 AM.Comment -
Alex HartSBR High Roller
- 07-13-15
- 177
#199Dennis Bermudez should comfortably. But you got to have that Jason inside distance prop because of Bermudez chin. To hedge with Jason round 1 isnt enough IMO. You need to have at least -200 or better to play Bermudez straight. So for me its a pass currently.
If you really like another fighter on the card you can make Bermudez the last leg of a parlay, but with jason inside distance. I would be surprised to see Jasin win a dec, because Bermudez usually wins until the point in the fight where he gets rocked and then finished by strikes or submitted.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#201Adding:
6 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.66 to win - 3.9 units
0.65 units on Zak Cumming by tko @ 7.5 to win back - 4.22 units
I have Santiago as the likely round winner. He has already faced a better striker in Strickland and come out on top, although getting tkoed by a more potent striker in Larkin. Wrestling shouldnt be any problems as Ponzinibbio has pretty sweet tdd. Only problem with this bet as i see it, is santiagos tendency to get clipped and tkoed. Santiagos has an annoying habit of holding his hands too low, especially after exchanges, plays right into zak cumming strength as a counter striker. We saw this in his last fight with a stahl who wasnt good enough to exploit his defence, but Larkin absolutely gave Santiago fits for this, and imo i dont think he has learned his lession yet. Except for that, if Ponzinibbio can get it going i think he wins every round in a dec or maybe a late tko as i see him as the overall better strike. Santiago also throw more punches per minute and his aggressive center of the cage demeanor likely will sway the judges in in his favour round by round.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#202Adding:
6 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.66 to win - 3.9 units
0.65 units on Zak Cumming by tko @ 7.5 to win back - 4.22 units
I have Santiago as the likely round winner. He has already faced a better striker in Strickland and come out on top, although getting tkoed by a more potent striker in Larkin. Wrestling shouldnt be any problems as Ponzinibbio has pretty sweet tdd. Only problem with this bet as i see it, is santiagos tendency to get clipped and tkoed. Santiagos has an annoying habit of holding his hands too low, especially after exchanges, plays right into zak cumming strength as a counter striker. We saw this in his last fight with a stahl who wasnt good enough to exploit his defence, but Larkin absolutely gave Santiago fits for this, and imo i dont think he has learned his lession yet. Except for that, if Ponzinibbio can get it going i think he wins every round in a dec or maybe a late tko as i see him as the overall better strike. Santiago also throw more punches per minute and his aggressive center of the cage demeanor likely will sway the judges in in his favour round by round.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#203Cant blame anyone for taking Cummins here. I was thinking about taking Cummins first, but after watching tape, i think Ponzinibbio wins if he can avoid getting knocked out.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#204Adding:
1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units
For some reason i have a feeling that Alex Cecares is going to win. Its a small bet so i dont care if i loose. Cecares is pretty much a poor mans version of Rodriguez, so theoretically this fight should favour Rodriguez in all facets of the game. But, its a 5 rounder at altitude, and if Rodriguez did get tire before, good luck doing those flashy high energy power moves now, without tiring. Hes not good at boxing range and if forced to fight more in fight i see cecares as good as him. Perhaps a bit like namajunas vs KK last weekend, where Namajunas was comfortable at range but a little lost in-fight. Im not saying cecares is better necessarily, only that i see cecares having some advantages, at +255, im willing to try.Comment -
Hugo de NaranjaSBR Posting Legend
- 04-14-16
- 14140
#205Adding:
1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units
For some reason i have a feeling that Alex Cecares is going to win. Its a small bet so i dont care if i loose. Cecares is pretty much a poor mans version of Rodriguez, so theoretically this fight should favour Rodriguez in all facets of the game. But, its a 5 rounder at altitude, and if Rodriguez did get tire before, good luck doing those flashy high energy power moves now, without tiring. Hes not good at boxing range and if forced to fight more in fight i see cecares as good as him. Perhaps a bit like namajunas vs KK last weekend, where Namajunas was comfortable at range but a little lost in-fight. Im not saying cecares is better necessarily, only that i see cecares having some advantages, at +255, im willing to try.Comment -
bjpenn85SBR Hall of Famer
- 02-17-11
- 5059
#206I like these both for small. Rodriguez's boxing is actually terrible and not having good hands makes it a bad idea to lay this kind of juice on a fighter. There's a bit of value to be had on Caceres but he's not much of a finisher so the Decision sweat makes sense too.Comment -
Ty$SBR MVP
- 03-20-16
- 1241
#207I called 3 dogs the second I saw this card. Camozzi Caceras and Cummins.Comment
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