Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

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  • firekillex
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-18-13
    • 6420

    #176
    Originally posted by bjpenn85
    Adding:

    2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 2.80 to win - 3.6 units
    Hmm interested to why you like camozzi in this spot?
    Comment
    • Ty$
      SBR MVP
      • 03-20-16
      • 1241

      #177
      Originally posted by firekillex
      Hmm interested to why you like camozzi in this spot?
      I like Camozzi/ Caceras/ Cummins/ Cub
      Comment
      • Hugo de Naranja
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-14-16
        • 14140

        #178
        Originally posted by Ty$
        I like Camozzi/ Caceras/ Cummins/ Cub
        I think the strategy of betting all the C names is +EV
        Comment
        • firekillex
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-18-13
          • 6420

          #179
          Originally posted by Ty$
          I like Camozzi/ Caceras/ Cummins/ Cub
          I mean any particular reasoning you like camozzi in this spot??
          i like cub and Cummins as well though .. Surprised nobody is big on Bermudez like I am here
          Comment
          • bjpenn85
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-17-11
            • 5059

            #180
            Originally posted by firekillex
            Hmm interested to why you like camozzi in this spot?
            First of all, i dont think Camozzi will get finished on the ground or standing. Theres a small chance obviously that leites will get this to the ground, grind out a dec or get a late sub but i doubt camozzi will be taken down. Leites takedowns are not good enough. Secondly, standing up, this isnt a landslide for either fighter. Thales Leites probably got a bit more power and better technique, but he doesnt throw as much, and he isnt as aggressive as Camozzi. Camozzi is in your face and he takes the center of the octagon, and he is improving to the extent i believe the difference between leites skills and camozzi isnt significant in a standup fight. I cap the fight more like +130/120- range. I will be suprised if the line doesnt finally end up there.
            Comment
            • firekillex
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-18-13
              • 6420

              #181
              Originally posted by bjpenn85
              First of all, i dont think Camozzi will get finished on the ground or standing. Theres a small chance obviously that leites will get this to the ground, grind out a dec or get a late sub but i doubt camozzi will be taken down. Leites takedowns are not good enough. Secondly, standing up, this isnt a landslide for either fighter. Thales Leites probably got a bit more power and better technique, but he doesnt throw as much, and he isnt as aggressive as Camozzi. Camozzi is in your face and he takes the center of the octagon, and he is improving to the extent i believe the difference between leites skills and camozzi isnt significant in a standup fight. I cap the fight more like +130/120- range. I will be suprised if the line doesnt finally end up there.

              Hmm makes sense so you like the dog money, I agree leites will probably not get him down unless it's in a scramble and he ends up ontop, I see this contest being on the feet mostly and Thales slightly outpointing camozzi throuh 3 rounds, camozzi is tough so I don't see him getting finished but I'm not sure he's on the same level as Thales here , he's a middling average middleweight and leites is top 10 material... The + money gives some value , I'll watch the line movement see where things go
              Comment
              • Thrilla
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 03-10-15
                • 13809

                #182
                Originally posted by Thrilla
                JIBBBY 1

                bjpenn85 0
                bump
                Comment
                • firekillex
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-18-13
                  • 6420

                  #183
                  Originally posted by Thrilla
                  bump
                  chef thrilla stirring the pot
                  Comment
                  • bjpenn85
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 02-17-11
                    • 5059

                    #184
                    Originally posted by firekillex
                    Hmm makes sense so you like the dog money, I agree leites will probably not get him down unless it's in a scramble and he ends up ontop, I see this contest being on the feet mostly and Thales slightly outpointing camozzi throuh 3 rounds, camozzi is tough so I don't see him getting finished but I'm not sure he's on the same level as Thales here , he's a middling average middleweight and leites is top 10 material... The + money gives some value , I'll watch the line movement see where things go
                    Sure, but Camozzi is climbing the latter. My bet is that he has good chance of making this close, and steal a diego sanchez inspired dec!
                    Comment
                    • firekillex
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-18-13
                      • 6420

                      #185
                      Originally posted by bjpenn85
                      Sure, but Camozzi is climbing the latter. My bet is that he has good chance of making this close, and steal a diego sanchez inspired dec!
                      the vitor miranda fight impressed me , but camozzi is 5/5 in his last 10 fights... 2 losses coming from jacare are understandable though but he has shown that he can be subbed and leites is a beast on the ground.. the over for this fight could have some value as well?
                      Comment
                      • Rich Benjamins
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-15-15
                        • 831

                        #186
                        Originally posted by firekillex
                        I mean any particular reasoning you like camozzi in this spot??
                        i like cub and Cummins as well though .. Surprised nobody is big on Bermudez like I am here
                        I put money on Bermudez already. Surprised the line isn't -300 or more for Bermudez. Rony Jason hasn't been very impressive.
                        Comment
                        • firekillex
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-18-13
                          • 6420

                          #187
                          Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
                          I put money on Bermudez already. Surprised the line isn't -300 or more for Bermudez. Rony Jason hasn't been very impressive.
                          agreed one of the best locks ive seen all year imo, bermudez is a top level fighter , rony jason is average at best. Barring some lucky ko or sub bermudez should absolutely roll over jason here -210 is a steal
                          Comment
                          • bjpenn85
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 02-17-11
                            • 5059

                            #188
                            Originally posted by firekillex
                            the vitor miranda fight impressed me , but camozzi is 5/5 in his last 10 fights... 2 losses coming from jacare are understandable though but he has shown that he can be subbed and leites is a beast on the ground.. the over for this fight could have some value as well?
                            If so, then leites should have won by sub over tom watson as well, but he didnt? So im not sure thats correct + yes 2 losses to jacare, and lorenz larkin?? hes not that bad either. That split against natal, isnt the worst loss. Santos he lost due to really bad tdd which he had at that moment. So 3,5 out of those 5 losses are due to difficult matchups.
                            Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-01-16, 12:34 PM.
                            Comment
                            • Ty$
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-20-16
                              • 1241

                              #189
                              Camozzi wins this fight prolly by DEC
                              Comment
                              • firekillex
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-18-13
                                • 6420

                                #190
                                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                If so, then leites should have won by sub over tom watson as well, but he didnt? So im not sure thats correct.
                                5 losses by sub means youre susceptible to getting submitted imo, leites has 15 submission victories , 55% of his wins.. just because you can be subbed doesnt mean you will everytime in a 3 round fight its tough, just stating for prop bet purposes leites by sub could have value , i still see him winning a decision though for the most likely path of victory..

                                60% decision leites
                                20% sub leites
                                20% camozzi decision or win

                                thats where im capping it at
                                Comment
                                • Suggartown
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 10-06-13
                                  • 565

                                  #191
                                  Cowboy vs Nate would be fun
                                  Comment
                                  • firekillex
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-18-13
                                    • 6420

                                    #192
                                    Originally posted by Suggartown
                                    Cowboy vs Nate would be fun
                                    nates beat him already
                                    would be a decent rematch but theres plenty better fights to make imo. i really wanna see ceronne / ferguson if he goes back down to 55
                                    Comment
                                    • bjpenn85
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-17-11
                                      • 5059

                                      #193
                                      Originally posted by firekillex
                                      5 losses by sub means youre susceptible to getting submitted imo, leites has 15 submission victories , 55% of his wins.. just because you can be subbed doesnt mean you will everytime in a 3 round fight its tough, just stating for prop bet purposes leites by sub could have value , i still see him winning a decision though for the most likely path of victory..

                                      60% decision leites
                                      20% sub leites
                                      20% camozzi decision or win

                                      thats where im capping it at
                                      Mostly agree, his susceptibility to getting submitted currently in the ufc i think is quite low, but against leites its a possibility.
                                      Comment
                                      • Rich Benjamins
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 12-15-15
                                        • 831

                                        #194
                                        I actually like the Camozzi bet. He seems to have a renewed vigor for the game and could likely pull off the upset.
                                        Comment
                                        • bjpenn85
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-17-11
                                          • 5059

                                          #195
                                          Originally posted by Rich Benjamins
                                          I actually like the Camozzi bet. He seems to have a renewed vigor for the game and could likely pull off the upset.
                                          He isnt smooth, but he is a lot better than he was at least.
                                          Comment
                                          • bjpenn85
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-17-11
                                            • 5059

                                            #196
                                            Adding:

                                            7.5 units on Cub Swanson @ 1.33 to win - 2.4 units
                                            Comment
                                            • Alex Hart
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 07-13-15
                                              • 177

                                              #197
                                              How are you feeling about Bermudez Bj?
                                              Comment
                                              • bjpenn85
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-17-11
                                                • 5059

                                                #198
                                                Originally posted by Alex Hart
                                                How are you feeling about Bermudez Bj?
                                                Dennis Bermudez should win comfortably. But you got to have that Jason inside distance prop because of Bermudez chin. To hedge with Jason round 1 isnt enough IMO. You need to have at least -200 or better to play Bermudez straight. So for me its a pass currently.

                                                If you really like another fighter on the card you can make Bermudez the last leg of a parlay, but with jason inside distance. I would be surprised to see Jasin win a dec, because Bermudez usually wins until the point in the fight where he gets rocked and then finished by strikes or submitted.
                                                Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-04-16, 09:39 AM.
                                                Comment
                                                • Alex Hart
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 07-13-15
                                                  • 177

                                                  #199
                                                  Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                  Dennis Bermudez should comfortably. But you got to have that Jason inside distance prop because of Bermudez chin. To hedge with Jason round 1 isnt enough IMO. You need to have at least -200 or better to play Bermudez straight. So for me its a pass currently.

                                                  If you really like another fighter on the card you can make Bermudez the last leg of a parlay, but with jason inside distance. I would be surprised to see Jasin win a dec, because Bermudez usually wins until the point in the fight where he gets rocked and then finished by strikes or submitted.
                                                  Appreciate it Bj, thanks!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • bjpenn85
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-17-11
                                                    • 5059

                                                    #200
                                                    Originally posted by Alex Hart
                                                    Appreciate it Bj, thanks!
                                                    Good luck!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bjpenn85
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                      • 5059

                                                      #201
                                                      Adding:

                                                      6 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.66 to win - 3.9 units
                                                      0.65 units on Zak Cumming by tko @ 7.5 to win back - 4.22 units

                                                      I have Santiago as the likely round winner. He has already faced a better striker in Strickland and come out on top, although getting tkoed by a more potent striker in Larkin. Wrestling shouldnt be any problems as Ponzinibbio has pretty sweet tdd. Only problem with this bet as i see it, is santiagos tendency to get clipped and tkoed. Santiagos has an annoying habit of holding his hands too low, especially after exchanges, plays right into zak cumming strength as a counter striker. We saw this in his last fight with a stahl who wasnt good enough to exploit his defence, but Larkin absolutely gave Santiago fits for this, and imo i dont think he has learned his lession yet. Except for that, if Ponzinibbio can get it going i think he wins every round in a dec or maybe a late tko as i see him as the overall better strike. Santiago also throw more punches per minute and his aggressive center of the cage demeanor likely will sway the judges in in his favour round by round.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 04-14-16
                                                        • 14140

                                                        #202
                                                        Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                        Adding:

                                                        6 units on Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.66 to win - 3.9 units
                                                        0.65 units on Zak Cumming by tko @ 7.5 to win back - 4.22 units

                                                        I have Santiago as the likely round winner. He has already faced a better striker in Strickland and come out on top, although getting tkoed by a more potent striker in Larkin. Wrestling shouldnt be any problems as Ponzinibbio has pretty sweet tdd. Only problem with this bet as i see it, is santiagos tendency to get clipped and tkoed. Santiagos has an annoying habit of holding his hands too low, especially after exchanges, plays right into zak cumming strength as a counter striker. We saw this in his last fight with a stahl who wasnt good enough to exploit his defence, but Larkin absolutely gave Santiago fits for this, and imo i dont think he has learned his lession yet. Except for that, if Ponzinibbio can get it going i think he wins every round in a dec or maybe a late tko as i see him as the overall better strike. Santiago also throw more punches per minute and his aggressive center of the cage demeanor likely will sway the judges in in his favour round by round.
                                                        Ponz gets hit sooooo much but he does throw fire. Should be a good fight but I'm taking Cummings here.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bjpenn85
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-17-11
                                                          • 5059

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                          Ponz gets hit sooooo much but he does throw fire. Should be a good fight but I'm taking Cummings here.
                                                          Cant blame anyone for taking Cummins here. I was thinking about taking Cummins first, but after watching tape, i think Ponzinibbio wins if he can avoid getting knocked out.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • bjpenn85
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 02-17-11
                                                            • 5059

                                                            #204
                                                            Adding:

                                                            1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
                                                            0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units

                                                            For some reason i have a feeling that Alex Cecares is going to win. Its a small bet so i dont care if i loose. Cecares is pretty much a poor mans version of Rodriguez, so theoretically this fight should favour Rodriguez in all facets of the game. But, its a 5 rounder at altitude, and if Rodriguez did get tire before, good luck doing those flashy high energy power moves now, without tiring. Hes not good at boxing range and if forced to fight more in fight i see cecares as good as him. Perhaps a bit like namajunas vs KK last weekend, where Namajunas was comfortable at range but a little lost in-fight. Im not saying cecares is better necessarily, only that i see cecares having some advantages, at +255, im willing to try.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Hugo de Naranja
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 04-14-16
                                                              • 14140

                                                              #205
                                                              Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                              Adding:

                                                              1 unit on Alex Caceres @ 3.55 to win - 2.55 units
                                                              0.5 units Cecares by dec @ 8.5 to win - 3.75 units

                                                              For some reason i have a feeling that Alex Cecares is going to win. Its a small bet so i dont care if i loose. Cecares is pretty much a poor mans version of Rodriguez, so theoretically this fight should favour Rodriguez in all facets of the game. But, its a 5 rounder at altitude, and if Rodriguez did get tire before, good luck doing those flashy high energy power moves now, without tiring. Hes not good at boxing range and if forced to fight more in fight i see cecares as good as him. Perhaps a bit like namajunas vs KK last weekend, where Namajunas was comfortable at range but a little lost in-fight. Im not saying cecares is better necessarily, only that i see cecares having some advantages, at +255, im willing to try.
                                                              I like these both for small. Rodriguez's boxing is actually terrible and not having good hands makes it a bad idea to lay this kind of juice on a fighter. There's a bit of value to be had on Caceres but he's not much of a finisher so the Decision sweat makes sense too.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bjpenn85
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-17-11
                                                                • 5059

                                                                #206
                                                                Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                                I like these both for small. Rodriguez's boxing is actually terrible and not having good hands makes it a bad idea to lay this kind of juice on a fighter. There's a bit of value to be had on Caceres but he's not much of a finisher so the Decision sweat makes sense too.
                                                                Hes not big finisher no, and if cecares end up winning by sub, i cant take it. Its so devastating being on the correct side with a +255 underdog, but not cashing betting only on a prop.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Ty$
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-20-16
                                                                  • 1241

                                                                  #207
                                                                  I called 3 dogs the second I saw this card. Camozzi Caceras and Cummins.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                                    • 14140

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Originally posted by Ty$
                                                                    I called 3 dogs the second I saw this card. Camozzi Caceras and Cummins.
                                                                    All day!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-14-16
                                                                      • 14140

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Originally posted by Ty$
                                                                      I called 3 dogs the second I saw this card. Camozzi Caceras and Cummins.
                                                                      I think Steele, Kawajiri, and Jason all have value at current prices as well.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Ty$
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 03-20-16
                                                                        • 1241

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                                        I think Steele, Kawajiri, and Jason all have value at current prices as well.
                                                                        I agree w Steele but don't get greedy there Hugo
                                                                        Comment
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