UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs. Brown (July 26, 2014)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX, 8 p.m. ET
Matt Brown vs. Robbie Lawler
Anthony Johnson vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Dennis Bermudez vs. Clay Guida
Bobby Green vs. Josh Thomson

FOX, 6 p.m. ET
Daron Cruickshank vs. Jorge Masvidal
Patrick Cummins vs. Kyle Kingsbury
Tim Means vs. Hernani Perpetuo
Mike De La Torre vs. Brian Ortega

UFC Fight Pass, 4:15 p.m. ET
Akbarh Arreola vs. Tiago dos Santos e Silva
Noad Lahat vs. Steven Siler
Gilbert Burns vs. Andreas Stahl
Juliana Carneiro Lima vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk

[Domestic]

Was hoping for less juice on Lawler, almost unplayable at that price.

[Sacrelicious]

What a card! Hopefully they find a replacement to fight Thomson.

Lawler/Brown might be my favorite theoretical matchup ever. Almost tempted to put a very very small play on Brown +255.

[MD]

^ It's Thomson vs Green.

[Sacrelicious]

That works.

[Bumdeal]

Lawler by body shots. Seems too easy?

[PaperTrail07]

Cruik VS Masvidal...very interesting......Gonna go w Mr Cardio Cruick

[Tommy Blingshyne]

utmost confidence lawyer finishes brown

[Karmaphobia]

utmost confidence lawyer finishes brown

5 rnd fight, isn't it?

I would have to concur that the lawyer will win his case well before the jury adjourns

[firekillex]

the odds for the full card are taking forever...
im thinking of a parlay to put up, since lawler and johnson have so much juice

Lawler
Johnson
Bermudez
Cummins


then maybe a smaller play on thomson and Cruikshank??

[Tommy Blingshyne]

utmost confidence lawyer finishes brown

5 rnd fight, isn't it?

I would have to concur that the lawyer will win his case well before the jury adjourns

lol penetrating autocorrect

[Kermit]

utmost confidence lawyer finishes brown

Me too.

[mmaed]

Josh thomson all day?

[MD]

Josh thomson all day?

At those odds? Of course.

[firekillex]

what are the odds for the thomson fight?

[MD]

what are the odds for the thomson fight?

Why, you didn't see, good sir? I thought you happened to be considering putting Thomson in what Mr. Kalikas would call a "porlay"?

[firekillex]

i was just saying some ideas i had for a parlay lol
didnt say i knew the odds yet, my picks could change when the other odds come out, never said it was set in stone

[MD]

Doesn't matter what the odds are when you're putting it in a porlay.

[JIBBBY]

Ahhhh 7 days to break it all down... Much better then just 3... Haven't started on this pig yet...

Just looking at the main card now at a glance and my initial thoughts are -

- Robbie Lawler probably KO's Matt Brown.. Matt Brown has fought very well lately but so has Ruthless.. Should be a good scrap... -300 yipes!!!!

- Anthony Rumble Johnson all day long against an old Nog.. Rumble is the next runner up for the title in my mind right now... He's a beast and his head is screwed on straight now.... Slaughter by KO early on is my guess... Already at -450 on 5D and climbing.....

- Dennis Bermuda keeps the fight standing and probably picks Clay Guida apart.. Gotta really look into this fight a little more.. Clay Guida is always game though...

- Josh Thompson vs Bobby Green... Tough call... Josh Thompson probably a little more well rounded then Green so maybe him.. Gonna get back to this pic... On the fence with this one as Green is explosive.....

[JIBBBY]

Just checked 5D for props - Rumble to win inside the distance is -140..... In on that one now...

[firekillex]

Just checked 5D for props - Rumble to win inside the distance is -140..... In on that one now...

johnson inside the distance at -140 is pretty solid
i have lawler/johnson together at -140 which i think is the safer pick..
tbh i see no way how johnson loses this fight, hell keep it on the feet and pick apart nog
and i see lawler winning this fight pretty easily, brown has been on a tear but his heart wont be able to keep him in this fight
might put a small amount on lawler winning by tko rd 3

i want to see these odds so i know what im working with, the bermudez and thomson picks are pretty close but i definitely think they both got it UD each

[JIBBBY]

johnson inside the distance at -140 is pretty solid
i have lawler/johnson together at -140 which i think is the safer pick..

While I agree with your picks I don't think a parlay to win "2 fights" is a safer bet at the same odds.. The prop bet with Rumble Johnson "winning the fight" and "winning inside the distance" is still the same fight...

Nog isn't gonna make it 3 rounds with Rumble Johnson...

I'll be patiently waiting for the "Johnson wins in 1st round" prop to come out actually...

[bjpenn85]

Nougeira usually loses slightly against wrestlers, but he won over rashad. I dont think the
1. He is old argument holds water
2. Johnson is going to make quick work-argument holds water. For instance, did rumble finish arlovsky? davies?
Rumble normally finishes fighters with weak striking abilities, nougeira has good hands.

Maybe he will win easy, but wheres the evidence of that?

[bjpenn85]

Nogueira also has pretty solid takedown defence, so rumble cant take him down most likely, rashad tried and failed. Prior people succeeded taking nogueira down, like davis and bader, but those times are gone. The reason why Johnson comes in as such a big favourite is because kalikas is veeeeery good at predicting closing line due to Johnsons destruction of Davis. But, how good is phils davis striking? I think thats the big issue here, people overlooking nogueiras striking because davis striking sucks.

[rocky16]

Nogueira also has pretty solid takedown defence, so rumble cant take him down most likely, rashad tried and failed. Prior people succeeded taking nogueira down, like davis and bader, but those times are gone. The reason why Johnson comes in as such a big favourite is because kalikas is veeeeery good at predicting closing line due to Johnsons destruction of Davis. But, how good is phils davis striking? I think thats the big issue here, people overlooking nogueiras striking because davis striking sucks.

Line is inflated. Still on Johnson but closer than line indicates. I would outstrike Davis. Rough him up standing.

[JIBBBY]

Nougeira usually loses slightly against wrestlers, but he won over rashad. I dont think the
1. He is old argument holds water
2. Johnson is going to make quick work-argument holds water. For instance, did rumble finish arlovsky? davies?
Rumble normally finishes fighters with weak striking abilities, nougeira has good hands.

Maybe he will win easy, but wheres the evidence of that?

This is a different Rumble Johnson we are seeing today rather then in the past.. I think for this fight Rumble Johnson's previous stats and trends should not apply... Not alot of evidence based on Nog's recent decisions wins and losses to suggest he gets lit up early on in this fight either and I agree.. http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Antonio-Rogerio-Nogueira (Nog is 38 years old now)...

With that being said - I still believe Rumble is on a mission, making weight now, dialed in and making the most of his second chance run in the UFC.. I believe he will make short work of Nog.. Doubt this fight goes to decision.. I think Rumble walks down Nog and them drops him early on... He's a heavy hitter.. My take anyways.

[marzwoody]

Nogueira also has pretty solid takedown defence, so rumble cant take him down most likely, rashad tried and failed. Prior people succeeded taking nogueira down, like davis and bader, but those times are gone. The reason why Johnson comes in as such a big favourite is because kalikas is veeeeery good at predicting closing line due to Johnsons destruction of Davis. But, how good is phils davis striking? I think thats the big issue here, people overlooking nogueiras striking because davis striking sucks.

He coudent strike, because he was scared of getting hit with bombs, johnson was throwing from start to finish. are you actually making a case for nog beating johnson? i would actually be suprised if he survives the first

[mmaed]

I can't believe Rumble by decision opened at +745. Wish I saw that. Rumble most likely wins this one and he is either winning by ko or decision. It's very unlikely he submits Nog. Hell of a lot of value in that one.

[MD]

I can't believe Rumble by decision opened at +745. Wish I saw that. Rumble most likely wins this one and he is either winning by ko or decision. It's very unlikely he submits Nog. Hell of a lot of value in that one.

It didn't. That was a mistake, Nogueira by decision was supposed to open +745.

[mmaed]

It didn't. That was a mistake, Nogueira by decision was supposed to open +745.

Ah okay.

[bjpenn85]

Absolutely not, but the line is off, and a fighter that just beat rashad evans shouldnt be this big of underdog to anyone, unless hes fighting jon jones. Im probably sticking anthony johnson in a parlay like everybody else, but im not going in with heavy artillery on this fight. Just letting people know.

[mmaed]

I agree with the above BJ. Little nog is a good fighter that can make this competitive.

Any opinion on Guida Vs Bermudez? I am a little wary of betting Guida over Bermudez although seeing him at plus money is enticing. I hesitate because Bermudez can stifle Guidas wrestling, he hits pretty hard, and he has durability. He kinda reminds me of Guida himself but with more power in his hands. He can most likely take what Guida throws and keep coming. I do see an opening for Guida's submission game. I could really see a choke being applied to a worn out and wild Bermudez. He doesn't seem to be all that technical(not that Guida is) and he is still somewhat young and inexperienced(27). Right now the over 2.5 is at -310 and Guida straight is at +105. I look forward to seeing Guidas buy submission and Guida plus 3.5 points.

I just finished watching Patrick Cummings vs Narvaez. I noticed that Cummings really does not set up his shots with strikes. His shot looks good but he flat out doesn't throw anything before shooting in. I could see Kingsbury having the strength and wrestling to stop his shot if Cummings comes out without throwing a single thing and shooting like that again(from outside). I do see Cummings having a significant reach advantage though. Maybe he can exploit that. He was also able to hang in Narvaes guard for quite a bit and hes a black belt. I don't think Kingsbury has much of a guard so if Cummings can get him down he should have a good shot at avoiding the submission. (Narvaez bjj> Kingsbu BJJ). Still a tough one to call. Cummings has the wrestling advantage but he is so green he could have trouble implementing it. Of course, Kingsbu is coming off a long layoff.

Hernani Perpetuo will beat the crap out of Tim means.

Josh Thomson should be better than Bobby Green everywhere. Especially on the ground. If he can get him there he should be able to put Green in some trouble. I am actually surprised at his line. I thought for sure he would be at least -300. He arguably beat the former champ Ben Henderson, knocked out Nate Diaz. Not to mention he arguably beat Gilbert Melendez who arguably beat Ben Henderson...

[JIBBBY]

^^Nog in 4 years really hasn't faced anyone that strikes as hard and looks to bang like Rumble Johnson does.. Rashad Evans (whom hasn't looked good in recent years) is a counter puncher first and dances around looking to stick and move.. Rumble looks to take one to give one these days and moves forward, he simply doesn't play games and has the granite chin to back it up...

In 4 years Nog really just faced pure wrestlers with no pop in their punches - Phil Davis, Bader, Tito Ortis simply are not good strikers... Rashad what ever....

Rumble Johnson (in his prime) 7 fight win streak http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Johnson-17662 is a different beast Nog will be facing... At 38 one only has to assume Nog is slowing and declining in skills to go along with perhaps a chin that can't take the big shots anymore.. Much like what has happened recently with his twin brother in Big Nog........

[bjpenn85]

Why do you think hernani perpetu will beat the crap out of tim means? What did he do in the fight with jordan mein? When he was eating shot after shot, and looked that bad, how do you convert that into a victory over tim means? Its def interesting

[bjpenn85]

bla bla bla, old, bla bla anthony johnson is in his prime, this is why people get burned. Focus on reality. The reality is, he outstruck a very sad and depressed rashad,but he won. Be prepared at least for a 3 round fight that may look competitive and not the typical 1.round KO that we bettors have a lame habit of predicting. He is not worth a chicken shit at these odds IMO (i had to put him in a small parlay, but you catch my drift)