UFC on FOX 12: Lawler vs. Brown (July 26, 2014)

[Vaughany]

Just a wild guess, what do you think? Both are very durable and haven't been finished off in years...

Guida was last stopped in a fight in 2009, Bermudez 2011 (7 fights ago)...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184

What?! Confusing the fuuck out of me jibbbeh! If your rationale is tht they are both very durable and havent been finished in years then how the hell can you predict -150 for a three round fight between the two to go the distance?!

[Skel]

Just a wild guess, what do you think? Both are very durable and haven't been finished off in years...

Guida was last stopped in a fight in 2009, Bermudez 2011 (7 fights ago)...

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dennis-Bermudez-58065

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184

[Dwil125]

Wow guida decision prop sucks hes +145 and like +138 straight.

[JIBBBY]

What?! Confusing the fuuck out of me jibbbeh! If your rationale is tht they are both very durable and havent been finished in years then how the hell can you predict -150 for a three round fight between the two to go the distance?!

First off V I only started betting prop bets just 3 weeks ago in MMA, cut me some slack.. Better at picking the fights then the lines.. I'll laugh though if it comes out at -150..

[getlucky2win]

lawler by sub
rumble by sub
guida itd
porlay and round robinz

[JIBBBY]

The Chad Mendes fight didn't go the distance.. I saw 3 rounds on sherdog and missed that one..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184 My bad.. Thanks for the correction Skel.. Guida was stopped 2 fights ago in 2013.. Still a very durable fighter regardless..

I hate making factual stat mistakes like this.. THANKS....

[JIBBBY]

lawler by sub
rumble by sub

Both by sub? Really? Both are standup power punchers, no?... Does rumble even have a sub on his record? Crazy odds offered up on all your bets including Guida ITD......and I see what you did now..

I might throw 20 bucks on each and see if one sticks.. Might be worth a try.. Hmmm?

[Dwil125]

I took Bermudez decision at +240

[PunisherIND]

I took Bermudez decision at +240

caught it as well.

[Dwil125]

caught it as well.

already dropped down to +140 that was quick.

[JIBBBY]

I took Bermudez decision at +240

+140 on 5D now.. Like this play as well especially at +240 if that is what ya got it at... Brilliant!!!!

Gotta stay on top of it when the lines first come out.. WOW....

[JIBBBY]

Green wins inside the distance +1190... Those are crazy odds even though I think Thompson will win....

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bobby-Green-27953

[JIBBBY]

Guida/Bermudez to go the distance - 265...

My -150 guess was way off...

So a half a round in this case is just a -25 reduction in price when comparing bets....Interesting...

Just taking it all in fellas... Bare with me please.... I'm learning....

[Thor4140]

rumble by sub lol.

[PunisherIND]

Guida/Bermudez to go the distance - 265...

My -150 guess was way off...

So a half a round in this case is just a -25 reduction in price when comparing bets....Interesting...

Just taking it all in fellas... Bare with me please.... I'm learning....

well, not many fights end in the final 2:30 of the 3rd round, so it makes sense.

[Dwil125]

Odds out

[UncleChael]

Bobby Green might be the play the boys...

[JIBBBY]

rumble by sub lol.

Thor I agree - Those massive odds are ever so tempting though at times..

I couldn't throw down a 20 spot on that prop even at +10,000 now that I really thought about it.

It's a dammn shame they don't make a prop (Rumble will not win by sub).. Even at -3000 I'd max bet that...

If rumble wins this fight it's either gonna be by KO or ref stoppage due to ground strikes.. Even if Lil Nog got dropped and gave up his back on a silver platter Rumble would still finish the fight with ground strikes..

I could never see Rumble Johnson even attempting to go for a sub in a fight at this level.. Does he even know how to sub someone let alone a Brazilian black belt like little Nog? LOL again..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Johnson-17662

[MD]

The Chad Mendes fight didn't go the distance.. I saw 3 rounds on sherdog and missed that one..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Clay-Guida-8184

Jesus fock.

[JIBBBY]

Bobby Green might be the play the boys...

I played the prop (Green to win inside the distance +1190) really small just in case... It's decent insurance, not great insurance though as Green could by miracle win by decision.. I porlay'd Thompson up already and got tiny regrets....

Thompson has fought some of the best recently..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Thomson-2394

[Dwil125]

well, not many fights end in the final 2:30 of the 3rd round, so it makes sense.

Robbie lawler and Jake ellenberger...

[Dwil125]

I played the prop (Green to win inside the distance +1190) really small just in case... It's decent insurance, not great insurance though as Green could by miracle win by decision.. I porlay'd Thompson up already and got tiny regrets....

Thompson has fought some of the best recently..

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Thomson-2394

If green wins it will be by decision. Didnt you watch strikeforce? Thomson is really tough

[UncleChael]

Dennis Bermurdez looked good his last fight .. He finishes Guida it's +500 that seems like good $$$$ anyone else??

[MD]

If green wins it will be by decision. Didnt you watch strikeforce? Thomson is really tough

He's lost three of his last five, so he can't be that tough.

[Educ8d Degener8]

...

It's a dammn shame they don't make a prop (Rumble will not win by sub).. Even at -3000 I'd max bet that...

How about -7005?

Sat 7/26		1139 Johnson wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +2335
9:00PM		1140 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -7005

[JIBBBY]

If green wins it will be by decision. Didnt you watch strikeforce? Thomson is really tough

Like I said Dwil it's "not great insurance" but it's still insurance never the less.. +1190 goes along way...

Only way Green wins this fight is by standing and striking so you never know? 3 rounds to work with..... He's certainly not gonna win it on the ground grappling against Thompson anyways..

[snufflyjoe]

You guys are crazy betting Lawler this will turn out to be the squarest bet of the year.

I hear the same thing getting repeated about this fight..Lawler has a bad "Style" for Brown. Lawler is the more technical Striker and will be too much for the brawling Matt Brown.

Brown has beaten more "technical" strikers before... Jordan Mein and wonderboy were both highly respected strikers and Matt Brown raped them in the showers. Brown closed as a +300 and +200 dog for both of these fights now here we are again with another more technical striker who is supposed to run through Matt Brown .

All of lawlers recent wins in the UFC have been against wrestlers why is everyone making the assumption that Lawler can deal with the pressure that Matt Brown will bring? Brown is nasty as fcuk in close quarters and won't play the range game with lawler he will get in Lawlers face unload strikes, Takedowns, Submission attempts relentlessly on Lawler.

Lawler will be Browns toughest fight ever no doubt about it and Robbie is a rightful favourite. But the way people are discounting Brown's chances are crazy to me. Betting -300 and more on Lawler is asking for trouble

The Line on Brown will get better and better as the public is well and truly on Lawlers nuts. On sherdog almost 85% of people believe Lawler will win.

Brown is the bet here fellas - Flame away!

[Grabaka]

You guys are crazy betting Lawler this will turn out to be the squarest bet of the year.

I hear the same thing getting repeated about this fight..Lawler has a bad "Style" for Brown. Lawler is the more technical Striker and will be too much for the brawling Matt Brown.

Brown has beaten more "technical" strikers before... Jordan Mein and wonderboy were both highly respected strikers and Matt Brown raped them in the showers. Brown closed as a +300 and +200 dog for both of these fights now here we are again with another more technical striker who is supposed to run through Matt Brown .

All of lawlers recent wins in the UFC have been against wrestlers why is everyone making the assumption that Lawler can deal with the pressure that Matt Brown will bring? Brown is nasty as fcuk in close quarters and won't play the range game with lawler he will get in Lawlers face unload strikes, Takedowns, Submission attempts relentlessly on Lawler.

Lawler will be Browns toughest fight ever no doubt about it and Robbie is a rightful favourite. But the way people are discounting Brown's chances are crazy to me. Betting -300 and more on Lawler is asking for trouble

The Line on Brown will get better and better as the public is well and truly on Lawlers nuts. On sherdog almost 85% of people believe Lawler will win.

Brown is the bet here fellas - Flame away!

[JIBBBY]

How about -7005?

Sat 7/26		1139 Johnson wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +2335
9:00PM		1140 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_48" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -7005

I didn't see that... Thanks.... -7005 is nuts but that is about as close to a lock as you'll ever get gambling in MMA..

$7005 bucks to win $100... Lol... Can you even place that without maxing out on 5D?

[MarkWoodstick]

-7005 is nuts but that is about as close to a lock as you'll ever get gambling.. So even if Johnson loses the fight in any manner the bet still cashes...

That's a lock I'm sorry... $7005 bucks to win $100... Lol... Can you even max that?

The problem with that bet though is if Johnson wins by submission, you've lost $7005.

[bjpenn85]

Wonderboy wasnt half the fighter he is today, and did matt brown really beat him standing up? If i remember correctly he took him down, so if am right thats just a big fat lie.Jordan Meins striking is good, but he is only a mediocre fighter compared to lawler. Can brown keep the pressure on lawler like he has against silva and jordan mein? I mean silvas cardio is bullshit and pyle also got manhandles against rory. The odds tells a story of a fighter that has beaten garbage against a guy that has beaten rory macdonal, jake ellenberger and maybe jhonny hendricks. People doubting matt brown - with good reason. When that being said, matt browns style matchup is def tricky. But is def easier to emulate browns style than f.ex mighty mouse or jon jones. If lawlers team is smart, they have peoople going bananas on lawlers ass so he is well prepared.

[getlucky2win]

lol. jibby can u give us sum inside info since u r n the mecca of mma? like who has the biggest hog advantage. who u got jib? i bet a chalk parlay. lawler johnson bermudez thompson. wit rr and strait bets of course. i mite arb or hedge wit sum props tho depending on lines. actually been hittin opening lines since wsop ended

[MD]

Wonderboy wasnt half the fighter he is today, and did matt brown really beat him standing up? If i remember correctly he took him down, so if am right thats just a big fat lie.

Wonderboy's only real sustained offence in the fight was in round two, where he managed to rock Brown, and hurt him with a body kick. Thompson chased Brown around the cage trying to throw combos for a while, and then Brown stepped in and dropped Wonderboy with an elbow.

[Vaughany]

First off V I only started betting prop bets just 3 weeks ago in MMA, cut me some slack.. Better at picking the fights then the lines.. I'll laugh though if it comes out at -150..

-265... Not far off

[JIBBBY]

You guys are crazy betting Lawler this will turn out to be the squarest bet of the year.

I hear the same thing getting repeated about this fight..Lawler has a bad "Style" for Brown. Lawler is the more technical Striker and will be too much for the brawling Matt Brown.

Brown has beaten more "technical" strikers before... Jordan Mein and wonderboy were both highly respected strikers and Matt Brown raped them in the showers. Brown closed as a +300 and +200 dog for both of these fights now here we are again with another more technical striker who is supposed to run through Matt Brown .

All of lawlers recent wins in the UFC have been against wrestlers why is everyone making the assumption that Lawler can deal with the pressure that Matt Brown will bring? Brown is nasty as fcuk in close quarters and won't play the range game with lawler he will get in Lawlers face unload strikes, Takedowns, Submission attempts relentlessly on Lawler.

Lawler will be Browns toughest fight ever no doubt about it and Robbie is a rightful favourite. But the way people are discounting Brown's chances are crazy to me. Betting -300 and more on Lawler is asking for trouble

The Line on Brown will get better and better as the public is well and truly on Lawlers nuts. On sherdog almost 85% of people believe Lawler will win.

Brown is the bet here fellas - Flame away!

Good post.. No flaming here..

Would have given you 2 brownie points or bet points for this post but I already gave them out for the day..

One good body punch or kick to the mid section, solar plexus, and or stomach area and this blows up your theory of Matt Brown winning.. I did some research and Robbie Lawler can blast the body.... Lawler might just do some body hunting in this one.. He hits hard too...

Oooops, did I forgot to mention the over used term - LIVER shot as well. What was I thinking? LOL..

.http://www.break.com/video/ugc/bas-r...er-shot-294738